MPOE-PR
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January 23, 2013, 08:14:47 AM |
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There was a bigger than usual volume of betting over the last 24 hours. I was curious to see how the rule change of Jan 3rd affected the volume. It does look like the December whales stopped playing just as the rule changed, but maybe they're back now: Is it strange that this graph is roughly speaking linear?
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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January 23, 2013, 08:22:40 AM |
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Is it strange that this graph is roughly speaking linear?
It's showing the cumulative total amount bet so far. A linear graph would imply zero growth in bet volume.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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zvs
Legendary
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Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
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January 23, 2013, 09:16:29 AM |
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The whales are definitely back.
And it appears they have lost 10,000 BTC since your update! (block 217599 - 217616)
Indeed - and they're still playing... Results: 2013-Jan-22 08:42pm (up to block 217651)
SD Profit before fees: 46089.86961885 BTC (2.153%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1847.76947500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 44242.10014385 BTC (2.066%) Pending Liabilities: -682.69538813 BTC Final SD Profit: 44924.79553198 BTC (2.098%)
And going.... Over 13,000BTC profit up to 217654.... 2 of that was myself.
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StarenseN
Legendary
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Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
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January 23, 2013, 09:42:00 AM |
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I was curious to see how the rule change of Jan 3rd affected the volume. Hello, can you explain about the rule changes, I don't get it and understand what changed. Thanks !
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Bugpowder
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January 23, 2013, 12:43:37 PM |
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Hello, can you explain about the rule changes, I don't get it and understand what changed.
Thanks !
Instead of using one lucky number for every s. dice betting address (i.e. less than 2000, 8000, 16000) when a bunch of bets are placed at the same time from a single address, s.dice now uses a different lucky number for every transaction component. This would decrease the variance.
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Bugpowder
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January 23, 2013, 12:44:36 PM |
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There was a bigger than usual volume of betting over the last 24 hours. I was curious to see how the rule change of Jan 3rd affected the volume. It does look like the December whales stopped playing just as the rule changed, but maybe they're back now: Is it strange that this graph is roughly speaking linear? Looks more exponential than linear to me. Especially when you add in today's action.
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Bugpowder
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January 23, 2013, 12:48:35 PM |
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My rudimentary analysis estimates that there were over 100,000 BTC bet in the last 17 hours since Doog's last chart, and S.DICE is up about 10,000 since then. They were up more, but the whales clawed a few thousand back. The betting is still ongoing, coming in bursts of 4000BTC every thirty minutes or so, bet across a variety of levels (< 1k, 2k, 12k, 16k, 32k for example).
This brings the total volume to around 420,000 for the month, which is now back on pace to beat last month in total betting volume, and a bit behind last month's return (though very close to the actual EV for this amount bet).
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StarenseN
Legendary
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Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
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January 23, 2013, 08:36:28 PM |
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Hello, can you explain about the rule changes, I don't get it and understand what changed.
Thanks !
Instead of using one lucky number for every s. dice betting address (i.e. less than 2000, 8000, 16000) when a bunch of bets are placed at the same time from a single address, s.dice now uses a different lucky number for every transaction component. This would decrease the variance. Crystal Clear now ! Thank you Bugpowder
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Bowjob
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January 23, 2013, 09:51:32 PM |
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Some crazy level betting going on.. How can I tell if the dice is up or down by myself?
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It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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January 23, 2013, 09:57:03 PM |
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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StarenseN
Legendary
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Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
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January 23, 2013, 10:00:25 PM |
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Some crazy level betting going on.. How can I tell if the dice is up or down by myself?
I suggest you to open an excel sheet (I'm using google drive) and put that line in one cell: =ImportHtml(" http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=500&min_bet=1&status=ALL","table",0) Then you'will have all bets between 500-1 (you can tune the limits in the URL ^) display on several columns You just have to deduce bets amount by payment amounts and you have an current P/L cheers
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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January 23, 2013, 10:02:50 PM |
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Some crazy level betting going on.. How can I tell if the dice is up or down by myself?
I use BitcoinArmory/extras/sample_armory_code.py in etotheipi's Armory git repository to parse the bets out of the blockchain.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Bugpowder
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January 24, 2013, 01:38:15 PM |
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I think the action has finally slowed.
My excel sheet is saying S.DICE ended up around +14,000
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StarenseN
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
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January 24, 2013, 01:53:40 PM |
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I think the action has finally slowed.
My excel sheet is saying S.DICE ended up around +14,000
Yes I am around that figure also with a rough excel analysis, but still need confirmation. If SD run pretty well (I mean not far from the house edge) we will surely break the USD net and even BTC net won in December.
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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January 24, 2013, 09:04:25 PM |
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Total of 35 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-24 12:56pm (up to block 217896)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 74628 | 0 (0.00000) | 73350 | 1278 | 737.65 | 0.01 | 102.44 | 737.63 | 0.003 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3724 | 0 (0.00000) | 3230 | 494 | 58.68 | 0.00 | 16.53 | 58.67 | 0.015 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5816 | 1 (0.00019) | 5395 | 420 | 81.97 | 159.97 | 8.46 | -77.99 | 195.141 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8522 | 3 (0.00037) | 8094 | 425 | 125.72 | 176.00 | 10.03 | -50.27 | 139.990 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10304 | 1 (0.00010) | 9891 | 412 | 300.06 | 4.54 | 18.66 | 295.52 | 1.515 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 11103 | 3 (0.00028) | 10708 | 392 | 586.77 | 303.55 | 1.36 | 283.22 | 51.732 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 13113 | 12 (0.00094) | 12688 | 413 | 843.64 | 155.74 | 55.72 | 687.89 | 18.462 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15944 | 30 (0.00193) | 15484 | 430 | 1922.68 | 1374.09 | 48.32 | 548.59 | 71.467 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17729 | 76 (0.00438) | 17277 | 376 | 2215.33 | 3537.63 | 13.16 | -1322.30 | 159.689 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 26379 | 197 (0.00767) | 25501 | 681 | 4392.13 | 4116.89 | 9.97 | 275.24 | 93.733 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 81694 | 1237 (0.01523) | 80010 | 447 | 21141.64 | 18031.91 | 1.94 | 3109.73 | 85.291 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20179 | 473 (0.02385) | 19357 | 349 | 6480.06 | 6562.48 | 15.07 | -82.42 | 101.272 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 49022 | 1508 (0.03100) | 47134 | 380 | 23248.70 | 20646.05 | 9.31 | 2602.64 | 88.805 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23400 | 1067 (0.04642) | 21918 | 415 | 8542.83 | 9756.12 | 25.10 | -1213.29 | 114.203 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 29040 | 1762 (0.06145) | 26910 | 368 | 6626.62 | 6183.66 | 31.28 | 442.95 | 93.315 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 34196 | 3181 (0.09411) | 30620 | 395 | 13911.99 | 15619.68 | 7.14 | -1707.68 | 112.275 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 141508 | 17359 (0.12306) | 123705 | 444 | 64377.88 | 63665.07 | 100.20 | 712.81 | 98.893 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 56063 | 10264 (0.18450) | 45367 | 432 | 120723.95 | 121908.68 | 3314.65 | -1184.73 | 100.981 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 171002 | 41558 (0.24370) | 128973 | 471 | 258638.43 | 248367.70 | 2056.05 | 10270.73 | 96.029 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 161836 | 59362 (0.36797) | 101961 | 513 | 287195.22 | 284823.93 | 1012.95 | 2371.28 | 99.174 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 898035 | 437858 (0.48833) | 458777 | 1400 | 624446.92 | 612488.42 | 2924.09 | 11958.49 | 98.085 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 409135 | 203928 (0.49948) | 204356 | 851 | 455214.95 | 444991.04 | 5720.32 | 10223.90 | 97.754 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 262743 | 192900 (0.73565) | 69316 | 527 | 258138.46 | 252566.93 | 5454.85 | 5571.53 | 97.842 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 49805 | 39231 (0.79441) | 10153 | 421 | 53112.25 | 51998.41 | 1187.17 | 1113.83 | 97.903 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 38083 | 32222 (0.85635) | 5405 | 456 | 53140.44 | 52658.09 | 400.19 | 482.34 | 99.092 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 50032 | 45434 (0.91593) | 4170 | 428 | 53456.87 | 53052.77 | 0.16 | 404.09 | 99.244 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 12590 | 11643 (0.98129) | 222 | 725 | 22089.61 | 21726.60 | 239.61 | 363.00 | 98.357 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2587832 | 1059191 | 1514587 | 14054 | 591138.81 | 578702.57 | 222.15 | 12436.23 | 97.896 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 87793 | 42119 | 45385 | 289 | 1750612.76 | 1716173.54 | 22562.70 | 34439.21 | 98.033 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2675625 | 1101310 | 1559972 | 14343 | 2341751.58 | 2294876.12 | 22784.86 | 46875.45 | 97.998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 46875.45622037 BTC (2.002%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1872.36727500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 45003.08894537 BTC (1.922%) Pending Liabilities: 0.58006950 BTC Final SD Profit: 45002.50887587 BTC (1.922%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 8753911 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4925861 (56.3%) Blockchain MB: 3731.4 : SatoshiDice MB: 2021.8 (54.2%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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ingrownpocket
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
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January 25, 2013, 09:21:13 AM |
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Herbert
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January 25, 2013, 10:03:11 AM |
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Indeed. People playing with bitcoin like it was monopoly money
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Bowjob
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January 25, 2013, 10:13:29 AM |
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Indeed. People playing with bitcoin like it was monopoly money These whales are literally throwing away the gold bars of the future! Perhaps they are stressing the Dice while it's still young.
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It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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Bugpowder
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January 25, 2013, 12:35:05 PM |
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Another 60,000 in bets with it pretty much flat since last plot.
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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January 25, 2013, 10:47:33 PM |
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I like how closely the actual profit matches the theoretical 1.9% profit. Total of 99 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-25 02:29pm (up to block 218037)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 75092 | 0 (0.00000) | 73811 | 1281 | 749.64 | 0.01 | 102.45 | 749.62 | 0.003 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3730 | 0 (0.00000) | 3236 | 494 | 58.95 | 0.00 | 16.53 | 58.94 | 0.015 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5826 | 1 (0.00018) | 5405 | 420 | 82.13 | 159.97 | 8.46 | -77.83 | 194.765 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8541 | 3 (0.00037) | 8113 | 425 | 125.97 | 176.00 | 10.03 | -50.02 | 139.712 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10324 | 1 (0.00010) | 9911 | 412 | 300.41 | 4.54 | 18.66 | 295.86 | 1.513 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 11141 | 3 (0.00028) | 10746 | 392 | 588.16 | 303.55 | 1.36 | 284.61 | 51.610 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 13183 | 12 (0.00094) | 12756 | 415 | 846.01 | 155.74 | 55.72 | 690.26 | 18.410 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 16014 | 31 (0.00199) | 15553 | 430 | 1926.39 | 1379.09 | 48.32 | 547.30 | 71.589 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17757 | 76 (0.00437) | 17304 | 377 | 2216.72 | 3537.64 | 13.17 | -1320.91 | 159.589 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 26433 | 199 (0.00773) | 25552 | 682 | 4395.18 | 4119.39 | 9.97 | 275.79 | 93.725 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 82267 | 1243 (0.01519) | 80577 | 447 | 21246.73 | 18099.51 | 1.94 | 3147.22 | 85.187 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20194 | 474 (0.02389) | 19371 | 349 | 6480.54 | 6564.61 | 15.07 | -84.06 | 101.297 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 49458 | 1525 (0.03107) | 47551 | 382 | 23530.32 | 20907.52 | 9.31 | 2622.80 | 88.854 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23411 | 1068 (0.04644) | 21927 | 416 | 8543.77 | 9756.34 | 25.10 | -1212.57 | 114.192 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 29100 | 1765 (0.06143) | 26966 | 369 | 6628.66 | 6185.07 | 31.28 | 443.59 | 93.308 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 34339 | 3191 (0.09401) | 30752 | 396 | 13931.48 | 15629.03 | 7.14 | -1697.55 | 112.185 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 142114 | 17439 (0.12310) | 124230 | 445 | 65367.25 | 64659.54 | 100.20 | 707.71 | 98.917 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 56482 | 10336 (0.18441) | 45712 | 434 | 123216.03 | 125597.58 | 3314.66 | -2381.55 | 101.933 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 171656 | 41709 (0.24365) | 129476 | 471 | 266866.96 | 256503.13 | 2056.05 | 10363.82 | 96.116 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 164133 | 60215 (0.36802) | 103403 | 515 | 315386.80 | 312902.06 | 1012.95 | 2484.73 | 99.212 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 902662 | 440074 (0.48829) | 461184 | 1404 | 637554.47 | 623759.38 | 2924.11 | 13795.09 | 97.836 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 411070 | 204874 (0.49943) | 205340 | 856 | 465946.03 | 456193.29 | 5720.33 | 9752.73 | 97.907 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 264716 | 194362 (0.73570) | 69826 | 528 | 258662.37 | 252975.62 | 5454.85 | 5686.74 | 97.801 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 49994 | 39370 (0.79421) | 10201 | 423 | 53354.68 | 52238.89 | 1187.18 | 1115.78 | 97.909 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 38260 | 32369 (0.85630) | 5432 | 459 | 53276.87 | 52804.21 | 400.20 | 472.65 | 99.113 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 50515 | 45871 (0.91594) | 4210 | 434 | 53894.03 | 53490.43 | 0.17 | 403.60 | 99.251 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 12639 | 11682 (0.98135) | 222 | 735 | 22093.68 | 21730.68 | 239.63 | 363.00 | 98.357 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2602217 | 1065356 | 1522759 | 14102 | 594444.98 | 581802.96 | 222.28 | 12642.02 | 97.873 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 88834 | 42537 | 46008 | 289 | 1812825.41 | 1778030.01 | 22562.70 | 34795.39 | 98.081 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2691051 | 1107893 | 1568767 | 14391 | 2407270.40 | 2359832.97 | 22784.98 | 47437.42 | 98.029 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 47437.42324502 BTC (1.971%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1887.93397500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 45549.48927002 BTC (1.892%) Pending Liabilities: 6.82273133 BTC Final SD Profit: 45542.66653869 BTC (1.892%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 8803750 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4954633 (56.3%) Blockchain MB: 3753.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 2033.6 (54.2%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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