ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Vycid]

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.

Sorry, I'm getting people mixed up. I get that accusation almost daily.

You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.

If you'd like to drill down to what you think is flawed on a point by point basis, I'd be more than happy to discuss it. I am not always right, and the means by which I arrive at my worldview is by correcting the things which do not stand up to rational inspection.

However, the vetting process for my stance on AM has been thorough and I have been confident enough for some time now to initiate and hold highly leveraged market positions.

You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.

I'm not sure what you mean by this, exactly. I use data to synthesize my outlook. The core of value investing necessarily stems from a contrarian outlook. Many of history's most successful investors were value investors and made a habit of betting against the market when the evidence supported doing so.

That doesn't mean that I ignore market data. For example - I have briefly discussed my position on ANV (NYSE) to demonstrate the concept. Profits for ANV can be estimated via (total average operational costs per ounce - market price per ounce) * ounces mined. ANV releases both the throughput and operational costs in quarterly statements.

If we use the premiums on long-dated gold options to judge the probabilities of movements in the underlying commodity, then estimate the fair value of the security (ANV) from a reasonable P/E, we can come up with an expectation value for the fair value given all possible price moves in gold.

So I can use market data and still disagree with the market. I believe ANV is undervalued and AM is overvalued.

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.
You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.
You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.
You say friedcat doesn't give enough information to shareholders, yet claim to be making informed decisions.

I think you're in a bullshit loop like the hitchhiker from There's Something About Mary

I can make informed decisions based on the size of the market, and reasonable estimations of long-term profit margins and AM's relative share. Also, the very fact that Friedcat is not transparent contributes to my informed decisions.

I admit that the precision of my estimates is not particularly high without the financial statements, but I still think the odds are against the AM longs right now, and will continue to be clearly against until 1.5 BTC/share (at 1.5 BTC/share I will convert to a neutral outlook pending Gen 2 news). When we were at 4 BTC/share, I was almost certain of AM's overvaluation.

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[Vexual]

 The core of value investing necessarily stems from a contrarian outlook. Many of history's most successful investors were value investors and made a habit of betting against the market when the evidence supported doing so.

I am not overly familiar with the term value investing, but as I take it, it is generally buying undervalued companies, and I understand how you have used it to describe your valuation on ASICMINER; taking a position where you see it as overvalued.

Competent investors do not buy companies where the potential for forward earnings is based entirely on their hopeful speculation.

Surely you would also apply this logic to a short position too?

...reasonable estimations of long-term profit margins and AM's relative share.

So others may have hopeful speculation, but your analysis is a reasonable estimate?
I fail to see anywhere that your valuation is based on anything other than your own speculation.

... rational inspection....

... the vetting process for my stance on AM has been thorough ...

... I use data to synthesize my outlook....
 
... I can make informed decisions ...

... my informed decisions....

Now you might be right on the money, but I put it to you that your confusing posts in this thread are designed to attempt to manipulate the market in a small way, and this too forms part of your investment strategy.
I only attempt to dissect some of your posts in the interest of balance and clairty.
Feel free to continue with your obfuscatory analysis.

[101111]

I've made quantitative value arguments that 2 BTC is a fair price only if AM is successful at retaining a significant chunk of the hashrate for many years. 10 BTC is highly unlikely.
Sure, we don't know. I like my odds, though.

Now I'm not going to present my ideas as fact, but I wonder if you have a brain injury.

To be fair, the "we don't know" part was referencing the "only if AM is successful..." part, not the value.

/objective reading

No it wasn't. It was referencing the share price in 3 months time. And the point was, again, to emphasise that Vycid doesn't know - which he agreed with - so is therefore simply speculating, despite the pretentious claims of being a value investor. Of course the fact is we are all speculating, these are not NYSE listed securities we're talking about here.

Even after saying he'll stop spamming the board he continues relentlessly with his smear campaign, trying to drive the price down, and meanwhile totally derailing the conversation.

Anyway, I'm guessing he'll change his tune within a few weeks.

[tkone]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

[SOSLOVE868]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

[chriswilmer]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

Honestly, I think it's just luck... sexy, sexy luck.

[SOSLOVE868]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

Honestly, I think it's just luck... sexy, sexy luck.

however , I remember that months before , all found blocks of AM is about the size of 20-40KB, but it is 200KB right now... I think the network's quality of them is improved.

[creativex]

Rut Roh Looks like FC is looking to get the word out about something.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=284843.msg3105051#msg3105051

...and after Josh had fought so hard for those 3 spots too.

[SOSLOVE868]

Rut Roh Looks like FC is looking to get the word out about something.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=284843.msg3105051#msg3105051

...and after Josh had fought so hard for those 3 spots too.

Sex Cat , is going to announce something... Guys, what's wrong with BTCT...is that too many buy orders of AM? I can't even login in!!!!!

[freedomno1]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

hmm well still hunting for calls :p
@Vycid Dat Carebear

[SOSLOVE868]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

hmm well still hunting for calls :p
@Vycid Dat Carebear

 

[dexX7]

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

I don't think those are 2 gen chips, but:

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.

Worst case:
Only variance + advertisement space for hardware sells. Though not that bad..

[SOSLOVE868]

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

I don't think those are 2 gen chips, but:

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.

Worst case:
Only variance + advertisement space for hardware sells. Though not that bad..

"The grilled cat mining machine is a continuation of the quality of baked cat. Grilled cat quality, roast cat team embodies the physical ability. In the world of Bitcoin client roast cat, cat fans and the public trust grilled roast cat's shareholders, the firm and steadfast grilled cat is constantly moving forward to solid backing. After a competitor, overwhelming viral marketing style spread negative news, I believe that the cat will not make grilled irrational choice and let his client fans be sad. Let us follow the roast cat vast cock wire counter-attack of wealth now!"

I like your signature...very interesting....

[Fordee]

Quote from: friedcat on July 23, 2013, 05:32:56 PM
August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

Quote from: friedcat on August 22, 2013, 05:14:24 AM
How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.

--------------------

Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 95
Today at 04:59:55 AM
   
 #33
Auction ended. Final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
5 10 betcointm
2 9.25 friedcat       <---  This:    Hold on tight to your shares!

[hlynur]

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

I don't think those are 2 gen chips, but:

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.

Worst case:
Only variance + advertisement space for hardware sells. Though not that bad..

"The grilled cat mining machine is a continuation of the quality of baked cat. Grilled cat quality, roast cat team embodies the physical ability. In the world of Bitcoin client roast cat, cat fans and the public trust grilled roast cat's shareholders, the firm and steadfast grilled cat is constantly moving forward to solid backing. After a competitor, overwhelming viral marketing style spread negative news, I believe that the cat will not make grilled irrational choice and let his client fans be sad. Let us follow the roast cat vast cock wire counter-attack of wealth now!"

I like your signature...very interesting....

lol

that text screams for a tip. 
share some adress and i'll send you...

[dexX7]

that text screams for a tip. 
share some adress and i'll send you...

Actually this is not from me, but a snippet from an advertisement text of a chinese AM blade seller translated by Google translate. If you insist, this is my reddit tipbot address: 1P8aFEkpzJAd2k4CYpEb9zuQ4dQBPSuCDC. Many thanks!

[hlynur]

that text screams for a tip. 
share some adress and i'll send you...

Actually this is not from me, but a snippet from an advertisement text of a chinese AM blade seller translated by Google translate. If you insist, this is my reddit tipbot address: 1P8aFEkpzJAd2k4CYpEb9zuQ4dQBPSuCDC. Many thanks!

tip sent

"The grilled cat mining machine"
that text should be used for the advertising space

[freedomno1]

that text screams for a tip.  
share some adress and i'll send you...

Actually this is not from me, but a snippet from an advertisement text of a chinese AM blade seller translated by Google translate. If you insist, this is my reddit tipbot address: 1P8aFEkpzJAd2k4CYpEb9zuQ4dQBPSuCDC. Many thanks!

tip sent

"The grilled cat mining machine"
that text should be used for the advertising space

That is one of my favorite google translations

[Lohoris]

Uh, yeah, if that's what it takes to keep his shareholders updated. What do you suppose that his competition is going to do with that information? He's not e-mailing the tapeout over to BFL. The competition is going to make ASICs one way or another, if FC lets them know that's still on his game plan too... uh, so what?

Updates are far more valuable to his shareholders than to his competition.

+1

if these info are not causing the competitors to behave in a different way – and I do not see how they could – then there's no reason not to release them.

[ninjaboon]

So I should just hold on to them shares? It's drop to around 2 BTC now....geesh