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1201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 21, 2021, 04:29:24 PM
Read the option thingy... But 5 million to be approved... This is a long long way for me.

As I understand it, 5 million for approval is only if you want to write options at different (not preset) strike prices. If you are OK with 25k, 50k, 75k etc, there's no need for approval as long as you post the collateral.
1202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 21, 2021, 01:38:15 AM

3. Sell BTC covered calls

Hint: covered calls are a great way to sell you BTC, rather than the traditional sell at certain price point on normal exchange.

3. I like this. I imagine it is something like this: sell covered calls by posting btc collateral, and actually sell the btc at the strike price on expiry. Do you have any idea where that is possible?

You are correct. Deribit and FTX, are 2 places that I know off the top of my head. And you don't have to always post a full BTC as collateral, you can use margin, but then run risk of margin call.

There is of course the risk of a big price move in one month meaning you will miss out on a lot of capital appreciation.

Of course: a little like selling too early. But you do get advance money in return, after all. No free lunch and all that. I'm going to check the exchanges you suggested to get a feel for the premiums.

something like that.
You can sell 75K bitcoin calls, collect premium.
Then, if btc is lower than 75K at expiration, you keep BOTH your premium cash and your bitcoin, rinse and repeat.
If it is higher that 75K, then somebody basically buys your bitcoin at exactly 75K (plus $ premium that you collected).
The best thing, it is european style options (at least on ledger X, which is US-based), so your bitcoin would not be yanked from under you in the interim.
Not so good-you need to qualify with above $5 mil to sell options at intermediate odd prices (like 57, etc.).
Anybody who gets approved for the regular account could sell at 25, 50, 75K, now probably 100K as well.
I was considering selling some calls when btc was at $42K, very happy so far that I didn't.
EDIT: I checked and Dec 2021 75K calls have ~16K premium while 100K calls ~11K. Wow.
You can sell Dec 31 2021 200K calls and collect 3.8K in premium (on the bid)-exactly the lowest price in 2020.
The worst case scenario-you would sell at 200K plus 3.8K premium.
Lazer eyes.
Great post, Biodom. You're informative as usual. Thank you!

BTW @somac., I've checked FTX and they only seem to deal in futures - not options. Or maybe I have to sign up to see that?
1203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 21, 2021, 12:27:55 AM

3. Sell BTC covered calls

Hint: covered calls are a great way to sell you BTC, rather than the traditional sell at certain price point on normal exchange.

3. I like this. I imagine it is something like this: sell covered calls by posting btc collateral, and actually sell the btc at the strike price on expiry. Do you have any idea where that is possible?

You are correct. Deribit and FTX, are 2 places that I know off the top of my head. And you don't have to always post a full BTC as collateral, you can use margin, but then run risk of margin call.

There is of course the risk of a big price move in one month meaning you will miss out on a lot of capital appreciation.

Of course: a little like selling too early. But you do get advance money in return, after all. No free lunch and all that. I'm going to check the exchanges you suggested to get a feel for the premiums.
1204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 11:56:55 PM
Hero status fully deserved, somac.
1205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 11:48:07 PM


How about elaborating on that a little more, somac.?  Wink ELI5...

Ways to make an income from your current stash:

1. Lend your coins. celsius.network etc
2. Sell BTC futures
3. Sell BTC covered calls

Take your pick on which works best. And yes for some of those things you may have to deliver but, you are in it for the income, just buy the BTC back, even if it is at a higher a price, rinse and repeat.

Hint: covered calls are a great way to sell you BTC, rather than the traditional sell at certain price point on normal exchange.

1. Lending makes me very nervous. The counterparty risk won't let me sleep easily. My precioussss!! The good side is, it is unlike selling because you don't forfait your btc, but cash in interest - that's how it works, right?

2. Sell futures for cash seems a little more acceptable. It is tantamount to selling, though.

3. I like this. I imagine it is something like this: sell covered calls by posting btc collateral, and actually sell the btc at the strike price on expiry. Do you have any idea where that is possible?

1206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 11:05:05 PM
These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k  Roll Eyes Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  Cool

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

How about elaborating on that a little more, somac.?  Wink ELI5...
1207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 10:57:54 PM

It *was* the cAPSLOCK.

But my 15m are evidently over...

We missed your 15m entirely. You are entitled to reclaim them. As a mild reparation for our failure to acknowledge your paternity of the "Laser Eye Bitcoiner" concept, please accept the following.

+1 WOsMerits


(Yes, sometimes it's appropriate to use the royal "we". Perhaps?)
1208  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 02:37:56 PM
I partially agree but he says himself it is not geared toward the scientific community and being peer reviewed, it is instead directed to the german public. Therefor it is written in german and not in english, so there is no danger that somebody who might have an actual clue reads it.

... except for the wealthy elite of the future (and of the present too, it seems), having crazy but advanced discussions in the best bitcoin thread in the world, with moles in every country who can pick up interesting stuff and have it translated for their fellows.
1209  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 02:34:46 PM

I think the jury is still out on this one. We will know only in time, say a few years - if we even get to know anything at all. The original paper doesn't have an abundance of scientific (virologic) data, true, but even the Bayesian analysis based only on broadly known facts makes me think. Facts such as where the plague started, how many laboratories of that kind China has, how many accidents are known to have happened in that laboratory, how many coronaviruses have adenovirus traces in their genetic makeup etc.

Call me paranoid all you like, I'm keeping my tinfoil hat on.
1210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 02:13:21 AM

Laser eyes are the bitcoiner's mark.
1211  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 01:54:29 AM
Observing 55555.

Very close to next milestone: Gold parity at 57k.

Doesn't seem that long ago when it was hitting parity with 1 oz of gold....it wasn't that long ago now I think of it...

And 1 gram before that. I remember that, too. 2013 or 2014 IIRC.
1212  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 01:26:09 AM
Arthur Hayes might be a crook, but he does write informative pieces.
Moving from GME and Robinhood to BTC (and Bitmex), Why and how? Part 1.

https://blog.bitmex.com/walkaway/?utm_source=cryptotraderdigest&utm_medium=email&utm_content=CTD

The interesting bits are in his account of what happened with WSB and Robinhood. He says he jumped on the GME wagon himself, though it might just be to get some sympathy. The self-promoting stuff is actually kept to a minimum.

>>>>Arthur Hayes might be a crook<<<<<<

I still sent you an smerit d_eddie but I remain a bit bothered by your description of Hayes - even though such description is not technically inaccurate, it just seems to be playing too much into mainstream (and of course powers that be government) vilification of him. Maybe "fugitive from the law" would be less harsh, but whatever... just thought that it is worth a comment - and sure, I might change my mind later, but I tentatively consider the USA case against Bitmex, Hayes and some of the others to be strong-arm bullying tactics, even if the USA govt might be justified in many of their concerns, perhaps?  perhaps?

My assertion that he might be a crook is not based on any factual evidence: just a few grumbling users suggesting their huge trades had been front-run, or that their liquidation (on a derivative position) was unjustified given the comparatively smaller swings in the underlying (corn). They thought and suggested that the order book was being "rocked" by some whale, in cahoots with Bitmex management etc. I have no idea how truthful or reliable those allegations are. My personal experience with Bitmex has always been a good one. I even got a "reverse margin call" once, with one of the staff taking me to Skype to advise I could take a little profit out (which I did). I just felt like a disclaimer was necessary.

In the USA vs. Hayes thing, I'm all with Hayes without a doubt. I agree it's plain bullying. The homepage explicitly said "If you are a USA citizen you can't register". Should they enforce it at a cost? They are not breaking any local laws in the country where they're registered.

This, however, has little or no bearing with the quality of that blog, always rich with technical insight, usable advice, and behind-the-scenes views of all the crypto/fintech world, with a strong (almost exclusive) emphasis on bitcoin. It is one of the few no-bullshit outlets of information about bitcoin and bitcoin trading. Apart from this month's piece about WSB etc., it is recommended reading in general.
1213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2021, 01:38:45 AM
Motley and fools got separated, then reacquainted.

The Motley Fool really sound like a bunch of fools. Most of what they do is mentioning Buffett in their clickbait titles. Boring reading, with very little useful info. Now they saw the light about bitcoin. Oh, let's throw a party for them!

I liked the piece by Arthur Hayes I just linked a couple of posts above. There's always been little complacency in what he writes. Even less now that he got fucked by the government big time.
1214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2021, 12:15:22 AM
Arthur Hayes might be a crook, but he does write informative pieces.
Moving from GME and Robinhood to BTC (and Bitmex), Why and how? Part 1.

https://blog.bitmex.com/walkaway/?utm_source=cryptotraderdigest&utm_medium=email&utm_content=CTD

The interesting bits are in his account of what happened with WSB and Robinhood. He says he jumped on the GME wagon himself, though it might just be to get some sympathy. The self-promoting stuff is actually kept to a minimum.
1215  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2021, 07:46:21 PM
Linear charts are not recommended in case of a heart condition. Please delete, we've got some elderly people here ffs!
1216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2021, 02:10:15 PM
I see what you mean vroom, but the orientation of the copter makes it look like it wants to go UP, which means Number Go Down. This aggression will not stand, man.
1217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2021, 12:03:12 PM
This reply of yours makes more sense, and you suggest "no" as an answer.
Measuring sentiment is at the very top of SOMA arts study anyway.
1218  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2021, 11:54:39 AM


A new hero has arrived

The helicopter road map is very nice as well.... using it in personal friend groups as well  Grin

If that’s allowed ?  Kiss
Not to nitpick, but this road map looks wrong. The helicopter is falling to higher btc prices? Is it a dollarcopter? If so, maybe it could be labeled as such, with a conspicuous dollar sign or something. Alternatively, the numbers could be arranged upside down, with higher numbers at the top.

And gratz for heroing, vroom!  Cheesy Long due for a long time, no-nonsense WO member.
1219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2021, 11:48:03 AM
All bitcoins are welcome in my wallet and my nodes. I guess you could run a hacked node to block specific addresses, but man that would have to be picked up by a very large percentage of the network.



You can just have it do a 1 hour routine "grid-search"  on a weekly bases of just the addresses that are manually being added to the protocols to be tracking and spy-banning the child-parent addresses. Smiley  Roll Eyes

And it just updates the new addresses that got spawned from the Devil Mother addresses that spawned them, and it will be easy to get a track of them and blacklisting-blocking specific addresses. Smiley Cheesy   Cry
Good luck hiding those 'banned' addresses from all the other miners. Or maybe I'm misunderstanding your idea?

It's a separate individual chain that spies on the other chain.  Huh  Roll Eyes  Tongue  Cool  Grin  Cheesy ... like some sort of IRS accounting/tracking. Smiley  Cry

My point is that you can spy all you want, but when another miner picks up a transaction involving your "banned" address, the transaction has one chance to get on chain. Give it time, and it eventually will. Are you suggesting to fork to keep those addresses out, are you unaware of how bitcoin works, or are you just taking the piss?
1220  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2021, 11:45:01 AM
In the last bull market the price of bitcoin ranged between $600 and $20,000.

In terms of sentiment, I would say we are roughly where we were when bitcoin was $3,000 last time.

Or about 5x from the low.

What do you think?
https://twitter.com/jillruthcarlson/status/1362084275621793794?s=20


What do we think? Could be reasonable



How do you calculate 50k as “5x from the low”?  That would make the low (after the last bull run) roughly $10k when it was actually more like $3k.

Read El duderino_'s post with more attention  Wink
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