You think? To me it's a strange coincidence for this to happen on this very day. One in 30 chance, more or less. Bayes theorem no?
btc dropped coincidentally with EVERYTHING else (risk assets), that's a real correlation. |
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It would be oh so nice to fuck back these option fuckers. A form of gamma squeeze like what happened with GME, or something. Buying a full bag of lowish strike puts, just to stop the bearwhales from fucking with low prices. it takes knowledge and a shitload of money though.
I just hope they pick up their last penny while hearing the steamroller arriving slowly... only this time it's running like hell. Hurt them for good at least once, and likely they'll remember for a long time. Are individualistic, libertarian bitcoiners really worse than Reddit apes when it comes to coordinated tactics?
Time is on our side anyway, yes I know - but I am rightfully pissed off.
This is almost nothing to do with options whatever. Markets are simply reacting to news about a new variant, rightly or wrongly. I wouldn't bother with options here. |
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The market is weird right now.
As The Dude would say : "Lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what have yous".
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75% of my stash goes nowhere this cycle. I have sold some at $60,000 & at $65,000. I even panic sold some at $57,xxx & $56,xxx recently. I have extracted a large amount of cash already & have some corn on an exchange which will be sold this year too. I’m waiting for hopefully better prices before the bull run ends on them though.
I can guarantee 75% of my stash isn’t touched this cycle. Some I’ve sold already though & that will total 25% before Christmas. I won’t regret it either. I will be retired at 35 with a new home without a mortgage, no debt, a lump sum of fiat to get me through to the next cycle. Probably look to invest in some stonks & maybe a small apartment or two to rent out also.
75% going nowhere though.
25% partially sold & will all be sold by New Year.
No regrets, after buying & HODLING since 2014 this is the first time I’ve extracted significant funds from bitcoin. I think I deserve it, less pressure & panic watching charts. Peace of mind is something important I think.
Sounds like a solid plan, well executed. Below is a small critique (from a different perspective). 1. It is more relevant for those who don't have other investments. With bitcoin still appreciating nicely, what's the point of selling an asset that appreciates 100% a year and gain an asset (RE) with rents at about 5-7% a year (plus some appreciation)? Of course, if it is a diversification move, than it is another story. 2. I don't really see a point of being retired at 35. In most cases, it does not end up well, but of course, there are exceptions. 3. Paying off the mortgage and spending cash that could gain more than mortgage (3% or even below) also sounds like a move that is typically not advisable. It is more secure this way, of course. To conclude: nicely done, but you will need to think a bit more as to how employ the cash generated. Does UK have cap gains taxes? If so, i hope that they are more modest than they are projected to be here soon. EDIT: btw, check out the fatfire reddit for tips on wealth |
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@JJG
jeez...asking for a source for an extended passage in the age of google, etc. Really? With your typical OCD-like attention to details and incessant quotations?
Almost as soon as I 'declared' you a humanoid, you put me back in a "they pull me back in" situation.
People typically don't want to convince anyone that they are people by being prone to something contradictory to their displayed "ego".
Bad upgrade?
Sad.
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Farewell Cardano.
to me it looks like a possible short-influenced play, which is possibly indicative as to where we are in our diminished cycle. not truly relevant to us, though, which makes it kind of a nuisance rather then important on the balance. I am a bit more concerned (in the near term) about the latest verbiage coming from India. |
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This is unfortunate..go to a hotel, for crying out loud.
I spent a few days last winter without power (see Houston winter storm), it was extremely unpleasant as the temperature was dropping down to 40[oF] (aka 4-5 in oC) inside. Almost nobody has wood furnaces around here.
The portable heaters are actually helping quite a lot, so a hotel should be unnecessary. It's just turning into a real pain in the ass trying to find anyone able or willing to work on it. If there's no response to my various evening's emails by lunchtime tomorrow, I may have to have a go myself  Still, cold air abounds. Who knows when warmth next shall come? Might not see Sunday #deathly haikudude...on one hand "hotel should be unnecessary", but on the other hand "might not see Sunday". the solution is simple: put that plastic (or cash) down and get worm, seriously. I would have done it in a minute last year, but there were NO hotels available since the whole city was frozen with NO electricity. js. |
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Returning home after a period of travel, to find my central heating furnace has died. To summarize a very long (and doubtless boring) story, my furnace is of a very specific type and no local tradesmen are interested in either trying to repair it (which I think is unlikely, since it's 30 years old) or replace it. So I'm on Day 5 of zero heating and it's 1C outside. Brrrrrr. I made a trip to collect some portable heaters which are currently being rotated around various rooms in the house, which is helping. But there's no end in sight to this situation. I've fired off several late night emails to various suppliers and contractors in the hope that at least one of them will reply favourably by morning. I keep checking the Bitcoin price to try to find some positivity in an otherwise cold and cheerless house. In that regard, today is looking a little more optimistic than recent days. Thought I'd share my tale of woe here in search of some WO brotherly love. I need a (virtual) group hug   This is unfortunate..go to a hotel, for crying out loud. I spent a few days last winter without power (see Houston winter storm), it was extremely unpleasant as the temperature was dropping down to 40[ oF] (aka 4-5 in oC) inside. Almost nobody has wood furnaces around here. |
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BTW, regarding inflation..around here all building stones (marble, porcelain, etc.) suddenly shoot up upwards in price (30% or more)..contractors are saying that this is due to the supply chain problems. Inflation is definitely outpaces gold rn, bitcoin is still able to hold on. A funny factoid: meat-eating/collecting bees https://gizmodo.com/flesh-eating-bees-renounced-pollen-for-rotting-meat-1848112925Never thought that it would be possible. |
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^ [re pic above] wouldn't that be too distracting, lol.
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HODL I never get that: if you didn't sell at $69k, why would you sell when it is $56k? Plenty stupid people out there like the ones shilling & buying meta verse "land".  maybe you should leave metaverse out of it as far as stupidity is concerned? people were saying the same about the internet and, yes, some of meta projects "RIGHT NOW" look ridiculous. I am not so sure what would happen in 10 years. My thesis now is that btc is not an investment for me anymore, it is my savings account (with a pretty nice appreciation rate). Investments are other unnamed projects with a tiny allocation in each, almost like a seed fund. Most of those seeds would die, but some, hopefully, pan out....just like bitcoin did looking at it back from 2021 to 2013-14. |
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..This is communists taking advantage of those who cannot think well for themselves.
With the perpetrator bonding out for $1,000, I have grave concerns with the trajectory this country is on the precipice of navigating.
Commies? Think China, mostly, with c-suits at Walmart, etc HAPPY to get all the goods from. How did it happen? By 'it' I mean who is responsible for the de-industrialization? How come they didn't care to help commies to build up their country which was done, as it is clear now, at OUR expense. Apart from this distraction, I think that bitcoin cycles are already largely diminished, therefore the price dynamics will follow a random trajectory with a trend up, but we are not going to get an average of 200% per year anymore (maybe 50-100%). |
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Sup, WO?
...spending my weekends looking at marble, quartzite, porcelain, whatever...getting dizzy...SO has big renovation plans....
Imho, it is a mistake to renovate instead of buying a new house, but...whatever.
I might look at houses IF some version of SALT deduction increase would pass as RE tax here is gruesomely high.
I have grown to be somewhat indifferent to time based predictions of bitcoin glory, dgaf whether 200K happens this winter, in 2022 or 2024 as long as it eventually happens. In stock-to-flow terms were are clearly under-performing as btc S2F is ALREADY close to gold's, but the market cap is 1:10 of gold.
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Also: about peer reviewed papers - make sure you check who it was that reviewed the paper and where it was published. I could send in a paper which states human shit cures cancer to an "institute" in India and get it published in some BS "science journal" with 50 peer reviews from some indian scientists nobody has ever heard of and probably don't even exist or who do exist and only care about making money.
I would only have to pay a few thousand dollars.
Best way to deal with this is to look up the journal's "Impact Factor". This shows how many times papers have been cited in other journals and their resultant quality. IF >20=Science, Nature, JAMA IF <2=Indian Times, DUH, etc. This is not as good a guide as it once was. There is a lot of stuff that is absolutely not reproduciable in the higher up journals. Publishing has always been somewhat political and a who you know type thing and I feel that it is only getting worse. Though in this case I imagine the Indian Times is indeed shitter. But certainly don't trust the leading journals. I myself am listed as a author (not first or last) in a recent enough paper published in Nature communications and currently have another paper in the same journal under review. I also published in Nature, both as a first and last author (not recently, though) and it was very tough to get done as they receive vastly more papers than they could publish. Many people in our field never had a paper published there and several of mine were rejected as well, then published in lesser journals. Yep, they would get flooded with papers. We don't often publish in such high ranking journals but if we think we have even a small chance we'll generally take it. No loss if they don't accept, especially if outright rejection (as it's quicker), then just move down the line. Having those high ranking papers does help come grant time so it's definitely worth a shot. Mind you no grants for me this round, but thanks to Bitcoin I really don't care anymore. Whats the APC for publishing in Nature? 9-11k USD? Might as well just submit your paper to Arxiv and hope somebody stumbles across it before you die of old age.  Yes, indeed, now is as it switched to OA, but it used to be much less, but it is paid from grants anyway, not from the own pocket. But the true new outrage is the review charge (~2K euro). Now, I mostly teach (don't want to write grants anymore), but when i published there last, there was no charge for review...it is quite ridiculous. Arxiv is great (and very popular) for physics, much less so for Biology. |
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Also: about peer reviewed papers - make sure you check who it was that reviewed the paper and where it was published. I could send in a paper which states human shit cures cancer to an "institute" in India and get it published in some BS "science journal" with 50 peer reviews from some indian scientists nobody has ever heard of and probably don't even exist or who do exist and only care about making money.
I would only have to pay a few thousand dollars.
Best way to deal with this is to look up the journal's "Impact Factor". This shows how many times papers have been cited in other journals and their resultant quality. IF >20=Science, Nature, JAMA IF <2=Indian Times, DUH, etc. This is not as good a guide as it once was. There is a lot of stuff that is absolutely not reproduciable in the higher up journals. Publishing has always been somewhat political and a who you know type thing and I feel that it is only getting worse. Though in this case I imagine the Indian Times is indeed shitter. But certainly don't trust the leading journals. I myself am listed as a author (not first or last) in a recent enough paper published in Nature communications and currently have another paper in the same journal under review. I also published in Nature, both as a first and last author (not recently, though) and it was very tough to get done as they receive vastly more papers than they could publish. Many people in our field never had a paper published there and several of mine were rejected as well, then published in lesser journals. |
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Observing an awesome Lunar eclipse...in the South part of North Am...like a crawling shadow.
Got my telescope out, but it is clear without anything, even binoculars.
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Biodom, you happen to have me on ignore?  As for the other statement, announcing my good-bye... The little one woke up and stole mommy So, no intense breathing tonight... Oh, sorry, a bit of work in the meatspace today..I just saw a post and "latch" on without checking the comments. I am COMPLETELY relaxed about bitcoin now for a multitude of reasons. I did not buy or sell, just think that it is much more likely to succeed than to fail now and feel good about it, price fluctuations notwithstanding. |
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I much prefer reading WO when we are downity, I can almost sense how different folks deal with it in how they reply:
Meme poster - hiding behind humour
Miner poster - hiding behind dca at scale
TA/Charts poster - hiding behind perceived intelligence
Finger pointing poster - hiding behind blame
Hopium poster - hiding behind bull characteristics
FUD poster - hiding behind bear characteristics
The commonality is we all recognises the price movement we just express it different ways. I find that highly enjoyable to figure out who is who based on their posting habits purely as a distraction away from the downity. Did I miss any poster types?
yea, you missed HODLer poster-those dgaf about a 20% "plunge", but become squeamish at -80% down, posting about a missed opp of selling at the top and buying right there (at 0.2 the prior price). |
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You and me both my friend.
Either planet Earth is the only life harboring planet in the universe or it is not.
We may never know. But regardless, either scenario is mind boggling.
I've read a few articles that basically say, we can't be the only planet in the whole universe with life ... there are billions of stars per galaxy, and billions of galaxies, and an exponential number of planets per star (well, some stars have no planets, but some stars have solar systems like ours.) We just haven't seen them, or they haven't seen us, or somehow we are too far apart to see each other, or they may have lived long time ago. Never mind the observable universe is only ~13 Billion light years. Who knows what lays beyond... Well, physicists tell us that the DIAMETER of the observable Universe is 90 bil light years. I am not sure how they derived this number considering that it is only 13.8 bil years old, as you probably meant. You are absolutely right that it is most likely MUCH bigger (beyond the observable part). I leave you with this snippet: It is plausible that the galaxies within our observable universe represent only a minuscule fraction of the galaxies in the universe. According to the theory of cosmic inflation initially introduced by its founders, Alan Guth and D. Kazanas,[25] if it is assumed that inflation began about 10^−37 seconds after the Big Bang, then with the plausible assumption that the size of the universe before the inflation occurred was approximately equal to the speed of light times its age, that would suggest that at present the entire universe's size is at least 3 × 10^23 (1.5 × 10^34 light-years) times the radius of the observable universe.[26] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universethat's a LARGE place. |
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