Masks don't necessarily help you prevent the disease, but they certainly do help you prevent others from catching your disease.
Did you think that the whole point was to save yourself, rather than to prevent the spread of disease? Well, now you know.
Also there is a phycological factor involved in it. When you wear a mask and the other person wear a mask, both of the person believe and thinks that virus cannot harm them as there is no way for a virus to transmit trough nose and mouth. The person who is suffering from covid 19 MUST wear the mask so that others are not effected by the disease. I've got a dingy old N95 mask that's been used a hundred times in abut six Montths. It's got a rich harvest on it from everywhere it's been. Of course, it's never been cleaned or touched. Touch it? Who knows what nasties are there. This mask, I would feel guilty wearing it around my worst enemies. |
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,,,, BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country. Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07 I think it is just better to use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points. Okay, let's use that one. It shows the US to have about a 4% death rate on those infected, so extrapolating that straight out over the 331M population would predict a US death count of 13m. But this isn't really accurate for several reasons. It assumes all infections are serious and reported, and it assumes the entire population is infected. Still, that's 13m, not 50-100M. You can't get to 50-100m dead in the USA from this disease. Taking into account the factors (bolded) a lot of people would suggest the actual death rate < 1%. Are you still believing 50-100M? These things overshoot, 10M dead will have repercussions that will lead to partial degradation of basic services. Not to mention possibility of secondary infections on the remaining 320M 'inoculated' population. Hence, my 50M+ dead count by Nov 2021...... But, like I said, if nothing is done, that is where we are headed. And they also undershoot. Predictions of epidemics are notoriously bad. Hence my providing direct links to R statistical models. But it does look like you'd have to have some huge secondary thing to get to 50M,doesn't it? |
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,,,, BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country. Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07 I think it is just better to use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points. Okay, let's use that one. It shows the US to have about a 4% death rate on those infected, so extrapolating that straight out over the 331M population would predict a US death count of 13m. But this isn't really accurate for several reasons. It assumes all infections are serious and reported, and it assumes the entire population is infected. Still, that's 13m, not 50-100M. You can't get to 50-100m dead in the USA from this disease. Taking into account the factors (bolded) a lot of people would suggest the actual death rate < 1%. Are you still believing 50-100M? |
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Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.
In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.
50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world. You seriously believe that number? If nothing is done, by November we will get... infected = (day count)^1.04 and almost everyone will be infected for the first time by November assuming 4% infection rate (it might be quite higher and non-linear, once schools open without any restrictions). The mortality of second infections will be much higher as internal organs would already be permanently damaged by first infections. I am assuming it will be around 50% for the people who get second infections. As we approach the herd immunity, the virus might mutate further as it will be harder for it to survive, so all bets are off. People do not quite understand the gravity of the situation. Okay, I see your method. I don't agree with it, but here is a suggestion. Why not look at major pandemics of the past, and various imputed real world growth rates? You don't have a sound theoretical basis for an unbounded weak exponential growth rate. I guess what I am saying is toss out all the garbage in the media, and go with sound modeling. Take for example this: https://rt.live/ |
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Don't worry, folks. The CDC has been manipulating the data from hospitals and other sources, so that they can feed you a lie...
..../ Nope, that's a total fantasy. Nope, you are totally mistaken. The manipulation often comes ... That's your fantasy. This is me telling you that's totally your fantasy. |
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I just like them for the dust. And it's the perfect excuse to get a hazmat suit.
That's a part of what I'm talking about. All kinds of people have used N95 masks for decades. We know a lot about them. It's absurd to suddenly come up and claim they're worthless. |
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Don't worry, folks. The CDC has been manipulating the data from hospitals and other sources, so that they can feed you a lie...
..../ Nope, that's a total fantasy. |
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^^^ Yet there are all kinds of professionals that show that N95 masks are just about worthless.
...
No there are not. That's an idiotic statement. N95 has been used for decades, studied carefully. It's used in many fields not just medicine. We really know A LOT about the N95 mask. That "we," seems to exclude "you." |
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...i think badecker has to realise that the place he gets his scripts from are wrong
That concept is not inconsistent with your ideas being wrong, lol... |
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...he estimates the damage to be in excess of $500m but has not requested $500m
instead he has requested that trump
"declare a major disaster for the State of Minnesota because of extensive fire damage to public infrastructure caused by civil unrest"
....
yep insurance companies wont pay out for petty damage, and they are treating it as petty damage to avoid paying out
....
I think I get it... If the insurance companies pay out, the people don't? .... lol ... Really? May I offer an analogy? A house is on fire, and the mayor tells the fire department NOT TO GO put it out. The he asks the fed and insurance companies to "Help Out." Let's see what the US Congress Rep for Minneapolis has to say. It's ... uhhh... Ilmar Omar. https://www.westernjournal.com/allowing-riots-burn-city-minneapolis-mayor-wants-us-taxpayers-foot-bill/....she doesn’t consider the damage to be the fault of the rioters. “The situation facing our city stems from a long history of discrimination, prejudice and violence in the community. It is no less worthy of federal relief than communities facing natural disasters or the COVID-19 pandemicm” .... |
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Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.
In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.
50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world. You seriously believe that number? |
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kinda funny you avoid doing actual research, or some maths. and instead wanna make a topic about what franky says......
and the best case scenario would be 70 weeks., but expect 140 weeks
.... i said multiple options. and i said the best case would be 70weeks but expect something more like 140 weeks
yes we can all hope for 70 weeks. ...
also cloth face coverings are only 20% effective vs 95% surgical masks.. but the difference between standing 1metre apart vs 2metre apart is more preventative... and using a combination of masks and distance decreases the viral load inhaled per breath further meaning less of a battle to fight if infected
so even if your afraid of a facemask.. atleast respect other peoples personal space. if not for you, but for others
all people need to do is respect personal space as a minimum. its not that hard
as for the poll and what you THINK i said.....
You're for 1.5 - 3.0 year lockdown. Do you have any clue as to how idiotic that is? Any shred of a clue as to how many people would die of non-COVID from a lockdown of that magnitude and duration? You don't, do you? Because if you did, you would never have said such things. Still waiting for those computational models, big math guy. |
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couple months ago spendulus was sounding sane. now he seems to be getting stuck in the conspiracy game of both wanting to say no to helping normal citizens and instead bolstering up trump. whilst also pretending to be anti gov.
....
business owners should have business insurance ...
public utilities like roads and signposts and such should be state funded repairs...
i think government funds should be used to help citizens out. and not wasted on tax avoidance great applications for the super rich...
...
Please stay on topic if you post on this thread. They HAVE ASKED for 500M in aid, the existence and utility of existing insurance policies notwithstanding. |
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kinda funny you ....
you will see the ....
.. but it seems a certain couple people...
you could have avoided all this by just answering my first question the first time I asked it with 1.5 - 3.0 years is how long the lockdowns, masks and social distancing should continue. But you didn't. I'm waiting for your "FrankyWorld" COVID R models. What exactly is your problem with the "Area under the curve?" |
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How much longer is the social distancing and masks needed/tolerable?
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Be my guest, revise your former comments, summarize the key points, correct misreadings of your rambling junk. I'm fine with any/all of that. I really did have a simple, direct question. Just no more lying, okay? No more ducking and dodging.
you do know that lockdown has eased. right? you do know that whats being asked is just social distancing. right? you did also read me saying that there is no single option 'end game' and it all depends on how stupid and ignorant people are to not follow advice about distancing.. right? i would love the 70week model. governments, hospitals, smart people would but its the idiots that wont socially distance that will make it be more like 140weeks. not the government the government would have to step in if too many idiots dont respect peoples personal space. so its the idiots that would cause more problems now lets work out if you are one of them idiots or if you do atleast act smart off the forum will you respect peoples personal space? or will you want to get lots of people to gather under the false pretense of 'herd immunity quickly' to force governments hand I haven't said what "I want", and don't waste your time guessing. You believe the mid-game to be 140 weeks, I got it. And it's the fault of those that didn't follow the good people in government and medicine...they think 70 weeks. Your words, not mine. Your idea is a year and a half. Tell you what, your rambling is getting annoying so I'm going to start a poll. By the way, post that R model anytime, okay? |
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"societal lockdowns for years"
seems you did ignore the whole last page of posts
maybe try a year of societal DISTANCING
Be my guest, revise your former comments, summarize the key points, correct misreadings of your rambling junk. I'm fine with any/all of that. I really did have a simple, direct question. Just no more lying, okay? No more ducking and dodging. i know already what type of 'modelling' you want to imply in regards to the math
i know its like....
No, you don't. And just post your R program that displays your beliefs, instead of drawing with the character set of the keyboard? |
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funny part is
.... <<< garbage fantasies>>>
You're stand is societal lockdown for years. Thanks for admitting it. (Finally!!!) I'm currently with a couple M.D.s we're having a good laugh over this. |
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