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961  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ouch, today someone made a transaction with over $500k fee. on: September 22, 2023, 09:26:53 PM
entitlement to fee's is not contractual part of miners payout. because its not the miners that decide what transactions and fee's are included in a block. a pool manager can if they want do "empty blocks" or only include transactions with 1sat.. and miners have no say.. all a miner can do is pool hop to a different pool

What is or isn't part of "contractual" payout obligations is subject to contract (aka Terms of Service) if there's any. If the pool operator obliged themselves to share fees with participating miners, then they should do it. Whether or not miners' could take legal actions if the pool fails to do that is a different story.
Pool operator having the power to include/exclude fee is irrelevant (they have a financial incentive to do so though). If the fee is earned - it should be shared (unless agreed otherwise).
962  Economy / Speculation / Re: Good time to sell? on: September 22, 2023, 09:10:17 PM
I will say there is no good time to sell the coins. Don’t keep targets to cash out if you want to yield maximum profits from it. Whenever you need emergency amount, at that time only sell the coins. If there is no emergency funds required, then don’t sell the coins. Don’t keep any expectations from Bitcoins and it will automatically give you the maximum profit when required. Just accumulate and HODL.

So your advice is just to hold forever? You're not going to live forever, so it makes sense to have some goals in mind and answer yourself a question what is the purpose of you holding bitcoins?
If you want to pass it on to the next generation (building intergenerational wealth) - that's fine. But sitting on your coins just for the sake of it, with no end in sight makes no sense.
963  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: percentage of your income you dollar cost average in bitcoin on: September 21, 2023, 04:27:00 PM
what portion of your overall income do you keep aside for the purpose of dollar cost averaging in bitcoin, and what methodologies or criteria do you employ to establish this allocation, thereby guaranteeing a well rounded strategy that aligns beautifully with your individual financial objectives and your level of comfort in dealing with financial risk?

I didn't really intend to do a DCA, but I'm hoping to hold my signature campaign earnings until at least the new ath (if that happens at all). Since pay-out rates are set in USD (and paid in btc) this is essentially no different than doiing DCA.

Coming up with a proper methodology is not an easy task and would largely depend on your goals. i.e. if your goal is to earn as much as possible on the next bull-run - just put in it as much as you can afford. But if your goal is to hit a specific amount of profit, then it gets complicated and would require you to assess what the realistic expected peak price is, and estimate the timing and the pace of price-growth till we get there. From that, you'd have to calculate the size of regular payments.
964  Economy / Speculation / Re: What if there is no crypto bull run for next 10 years ? on: September 21, 2023, 04:02:28 PM
I think if there wasn’t a bull run every four years then Bitcoin would struggle. Now that it’s taken the stance of being digital gold, its main selling point is that it goes up in price against the dollar. As soon as a 4-year cycle passes without a new high, I think a lot of speculators would abandon the market causing a falling feedback loop. As digital gold isn’t useful if it doesn’t hold value.

I'm worried of that too, but it's not like 4-year cycles are the only thing that could drive the price up. Since these cycles are based on halvings, it's inevitable and expected that they won't last forever (due to diminishing block rewards).
Eventually BTC will have to start acting like all other investments with price action being news-driven. Some demand from speculators wanting to capitalise on bull-run predictivity could get replaced i.e. by demand from spot ETFs (if approved). In the long run it all could work well for Bitcoin.
965  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: September 21, 2023, 03:48:50 PM
Nice!  I wonder how the books are gonna line Prochazka vs Pereira...  From what we've seen of Pereira at 205 vs Jan Błachowicz, it was dull, low volume and boring.  Prochazka is a dynamic striker, fast and more explosive.

Good question. I've no idea who would be favourite here. Pereira's last fight was dull indeed, but it was he's first fight at 205 and he was cautious not to get taken down. Against Prochazka it will be more of a striker Vs striker match, so should be more interesting (in theory at least). I'd probably go with Prochazka, but he's coming back from a pretty bad injury so who knows.

And I think we finally see Covington get the belt at 170.  Lol.

Now or never for Colby.

Anyway! I kinda change my mind for my pick in the main event in the Multi Master...  Gamrot could grind on Fiziev right from the start and tire him out.  He's kinda big for 155 and Fiziev kinda small.  :/

Gamrot looks sharp and is very confident in his interviews. He also finally got his eyes fixed. If he doesn't get KOed in the first 2 rounds, he'll win by decision.
966  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ouch, today someone made a transaction with over $500k fee. on: September 21, 2023, 03:31:45 PM
It would of course be the right thing to do from the sender's perspective. But is it the right thing to do from the individual miners' perspective? They have honestly mined a valid transaction, and now their pool operator is denying them the profits? Should it really be up to the pool operator at all? Should each individual miner not get to decide what to do with their share of the excess fee which they earned honestly?

I 100% agree on this aspect. As I mentioned before, I can't understand how F2Pool could make such gesture without asking participating miners for permission (unless they have it covered in Terms of Service, which I doubt).
So I think refunding it is a moral thing to do in general, but everyone entitled to that fee should make that decision themselves. You can't make good deeds with other peoples money.
967  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: September 21, 2023, 07:45:29 AM
Some breaking news from Dana White:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7STg0LeWko

UFC 295 (11th Nov) Jones Vs Miocic - the co-main event will be Prohazka Vs. Pereira for a vacant title
UFC 296 (16th Dec) - Leon Edwards is confirmed to face Colby Covington. Co-main event: Pantoja Vs Royval.

Sounds good to me.
968  Economy / Speculation / Re: Good time to sell? on: September 20, 2023, 10:42:17 PM
I don't if I have responded In this thread before, but it's obvious that a good investors knows when to sell and when not sell it coin, because during investment of any you will have a budget and also a target so that when the market skyrocket to bullrun then you will know the exact time to sell, but when you don't have the exact time to sell that means you doesn't have a target of selling your bitcoin as well, because what deceived some people is they think that bitcoin price will be going up, secondly greediness is another thing that makes some people not sell their coin.

That smells a bit like a True Scotsman fallacy.

I don't think any expert traders would actually have a hard-fixed selling price and/or time. They'd probably rely more on various metrics indicating that the market gets overheated, meaning it has reached the peak (or is close to).
Some people say that any profit is a good profit, but I couldn't disagree more.
969  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ouch, today someone made a transaction with over $500k fee. on: September 20, 2023, 10:24:07 PM
That's a different scenario. We will have agreed on a price in advance, so it is clear what you sent was a mistake.

If I pay 100 sats/vbyte in fees, is that clearly a mistake? What about 200? 500? The last block contained two transactions paying over 1,000 sats/vbyte in fees, when 40 sats/vbyte would have been sufficient. Should the miner refund those transactions? Or indeed, should they refund every transaction which paid more than what was necessary? What's stopping me from making all my transactions pay 1,000 sats/vbyte and then demand that the miner return my fee?

These are excuses and you know it. You ignored the parts where I mentioned: "If you know that someone paid you too much in error, and it's practical and possible to refund them". No one is talking about anyone demanding a refund, but whether it would be a moral thing to do from the recipient's perspective.
Just because it's judgmental of what the "refundable" amount would be, it doesn't mean it's the right thing to keep any amount sent in error (even if you have a legal right to do so).
Somehow nobody in this thread had any trouble recognising that 20btc was not a normal fee and it was likely sent in error.


If you send all your coins to the wrong address, no one can get them back for you.

Recipient could. If I sent all my bitcoins to your address by some weird accident, I'd like to think you would return them. Not because you have to, but because it's the right thing to do.

I don't see why we should expect any different if you pay too much in fees. You might get lucky and the miner in question might be feeling generous, but you definitely shouldn't work on the assumption that they will refund your fee nor that you would have any legal recourse in such a situation.

Nobody is saying anything about any "expectations" or about introducing any rules that miners must refund such fees.
As for legal recourse - you don't know that. I could easily imagine miner being ordered to return it in some jurisdictions.
970  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: September 20, 2023, 09:49:40 PM
You give so high % of win chance because often wrestlers/grapplers beat strikers? During UFC career, Fiziev has faced more wrestlers/grapplers than pure strikers and won. Also one one has ever submitted him, which is kinda weird, as Fiziev was a pure striker and spent a lot of time in Thailand with Muay Thai guys. All those ground game guys must have submitted him, how ever I dont remember him being in danger of being submitted. However, I can not misjudge Gamrot. He has a win over strong Tsarukyan, who seems to be a younger copy of Fiziev. Why copy, because Tsarukyan now focuses on training in Thailand also, in same gym as Fiziev (Tiger Muay Thai).

Nah, I give Gamrot 60% mostly because of heavy bias, as he's my compatriot, so I really like to see him winning this one. And it's not that high really, it's not very far away from 50/50.
Everyone who trained wrestling at some point in their life can label themselves as wrestler, but that doesn't mean they're all at the same level. And it's way easier for a wrestler to master striking than the other way around. Gamrot can be relentless in his takedown attempts, he doesn't give up after a failed attempt but keeps coming at you from all angles. If Fiziev manages to neutralise that, he will massively shift the odds in his favour, but I don't think he will.
971  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Have a clear understanding of what DCA means on: September 19, 2023, 04:55:03 PM
DCA works but generally if you are unlucky and buy during the peak or DCA sell during the bottom then it won’t work out best for you.

It’s best to spread it apart, maybe few months apart. That way you aren’t like the El Salvador president who bought bitcoin near the peak and has still a long way until he breaks even. Same with Saylor. Bought large amounts near the peak and still hasn’t broken even.

El Salvador/Microstrategy were not really doing DCA initially. I think Microstrategy doesn't care about that at all, and El Salvador only recently started applying DCA by buying 1 btc a day (if I remember correctly).
But generally speaking, the more frequent your regular purchases are, the better. I would set them as a minimum once a month.


I don't like treating DCA like some sort of superior strategy. I believe timing the market (trying to buy low and sell high) yields better returns. Maybe some sort of hybrid strategy wouldn't be a bad idea.
972  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Don't Just HODL But HODL Wisely and Securely on: September 19, 2023, 04:44:16 PM
What sucks is that if most beginners just download a bitcoin wallet off Google PlayStore/Apple AppStore, chances are, they'd land upon an exchange wallet or a custodial wallet. The way bitcoin/crypto is now, you need to learn by mistake first lol before actually ending up diving deeper.

https://chainsec.io/checklist

Unpopular opinion: I think that all those who are into Bitcoin just to buy a (relatively) small amount, hold till the next pump and sell - should actually stick to keeping them on reputable centralised exchanges. It's against the BTC principles, yes, but it's probably much more safer and efficient in terms of time and fees. Short-term holders are generally not the type of people who would spend a lot of time learning about all the security risks and safe storing. The risk of messing something up with setting up wallet (or cold storage) for the first time is greater than the risk of reputable exchange going belly up.
973  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ouch, today someone made a transaction with over $500k fee. on: September 19, 2023, 04:30:03 PM
Despite the majority voting against it, apparently they did the right thing and returned that fee anyway:
Who's to say it was the right thing to do? Whenever the average user makes a mistake and over pays their fee, they simply have to wave goodbye to their money. Why should it be different for Paxos?

Depends on your morality (or lack thereof) I guess. To me it's pretty clear. If you know that someone paid you too much in error, and it's practical and possible to refund them - you should.
If you sold a car to your friend and they accidentally wired you $20k instead of $10k, you wouldn't use "other people make mistakes and lose money permanently" as an excuse, you would send it back (I hope).
974  Bitcoin / Press / [2023-09-19] Barron's: Bitcoin Rises Ahead of the Fed. Bullish Bets Might Be ... on: September 19, 2023, 04:08:58 PM
Fresh press hit on Bitcoin's mini-rally when it reached its highest level this month.

Bitcoin Rises Ahead of the Fed. Bullish Bets Might Be Premature

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-ethereum-price-crypto-markets-today-44fcd89a

Quote
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rose Tuesday as digital asset traders continued to pile into overwhelmingly bullish bets on cryptos ahead of the interest rates decision from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. It might mark a premature wave of wagers in a quiet market.

The price of Bitcoin has advanced 1% over the past 24 hours to near $27,100, paring gains after spiking above $27,400 to hit the highest levels this month. The largest digital asset’s recent rally marks another attempt to push past the $26,000 zone, around which Bitcoin has stagnated for more than a month amid historically low volatility and trading volumes as investor interest has waned.

“Bitcoin is testing initial resistance at the 50-day moving average around $27,200 as part of a short-term oversold bounce that preserved major support around $25,200,” said Katie Stockton, managing partner at technical research firm Fairlead Strategies.
975  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: September 19, 2023, 03:53:06 PM
They are both smart fighters but I think Fiziev is more well rounded. If Gamrot even bring this fight to the ground, he will struggle to keep up while Fiziev dominate the fight to which Gamrot would better prefer foot on the ground.

UFC is giving Gamrot a slow climb to the title shot but if he could beat Fiziev, he might just get the shot he needed.

I could only see this fight turn out to be boxing and Fiziev being the fast KOs Gamrot.

Gamrot's wrestling is his biggest strength and he utilises it often, but he's more well-rounded than Fiziev. Before moving to UFC, he was a dominant champion in Europe's largest mma organisation (KSW) and he has a lot of experience fighting against all kinds of opponents, whether on the ground or standing. He also has more experience in fighting at the 5 rounds distance.
Sure, fast KO is always a risk, but if Gamrot does his homework, he's more than capable of neutralising Fiziev's striking.
I give Gamrot 60% chance of winning.
 
976  Economy / Speculation / Re: The time has finally come...??? on: September 18, 2023, 09:54:52 PM
(...) but in my opinion the rise and fall of BTC depends on the state of the world economy. If the world economy progresses, I think BTC has the potential to go to $100k during a bull market .

It could go the opposite way though. In recent times, Bitcoin has largely decoupled from stocks and other traditional markets, so there's a chance it will (finally) start acting as a hedge against recession and/or against inflation. So, at some point, we could see an inverse correlation: stocks goes down --> BTC goes up. Unlikely, maybe - but it's a possibility.
977  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ouch, today someone made a transaction with over $500k fee. on: September 18, 2023, 09:40:44 PM
F2Pool owner is now asking the community what they should do with the funds: https://nitter.cz/satofishi/status/1702095123981738437#m
They should've asked before declaring they would refund it. And looks like he was just having a laugh with that poll. Despite the majority voting against it, apparently they did the right thing and returned that fee anyway:


what if the miner denied to pay the refund? like if we lost our money then we can complaint to police, is there any authority in this type of case?
You can't contact the police because the miner did not steal anything. They simply mined your transaction, the fee of which you chose. If you chose the wrong fee, then that's your fault.
That's actually quite interesting from the legal point of view. As much as it's not something that would be reportable to police, depending on the jurisdiction, you could still take the miner to the civil court with a chance of winning.
978  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Rise to 75% (Bloomberg) on: September 18, 2023, 09:15:31 PM
I don't think it is so.
Blackrock doesn't need BTC to profit on the markets. They already own a large chunk of the equity market.
Secondly, they don't want to have a directional market risk on Bitcoin (the one that usually triggers the stop ): they are hedgers, not traders.
They would make enough profit from management fees, without putting in place risky positions on the market).

That's likely true, but if they had insider information that their ETF would get approved, and since we almost certainly know that it would have a positive impact on BTC price, then there's not much risk on their side. Also considering that the entire Bitcoin involvement is just a tiny fraction of their operations.

I download their report for 2022 full-year report  and Q2 2023 report that show how big their corporate company is and how big their profit from management fee.

$1.4 billion of net profit after tax just for the last 3 months and over $9 trillion of average assets under management is truly impressive. You don't get bigger than that.
979  Economy / Speculation / Re: Good time to sell? on: September 18, 2023, 08:54:30 PM
After the price reaches $80k, there will be another correction if the price is unable to break through the higher price. And that has happened often. We just have to observe how the Bitcoin price moves.

If the market is dominated by retail and primarily driven by psychological factors (i.e. investors' mood) then yeah, we might see a correction (if not crash) if the price fails to go significantly above the old ath.
But if institutional investors enter the game via ETFs, that could be a game changer and we could see a more panic-resistant market.
980  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: September 18, 2023, 08:44:01 PM
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot

Yay! Finally a really exciting fight, almost guaranteed not to be boring. I'm heavily biased on this one as Gamrot is my compatriot and I like his character, but I think, objectively, he has what it takes to defeat Fiziev. Gamrot likes fighting in Las Vegas, he fought and won 5 times there, his wrestling is obviously superior to Fiziev's and he's experienced enough to withstand the pressure.
It's an important fight for both of them, winning this one will open the door to fight guys from the top 5, meaning big money fights.
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