Yeah. That will teach me to put on my faith in them. Thought I was smart to skip them last gameweek, saved the draw disappointment but tonight serves me right.

Worse, couldn't even give you BTTS huh Trofo. And old boy Aurier actually leveled for Nottingham Forest. How the world goes round.

@toke what are you following these days if not football? What the hell could be better than football??

@tokeweed I would suggest you to avoid selecting Salah, because he’s been really poor this season and I doubt that he’ll improve in the remaining game’s. Also I thought that Havertz was done at Chelsea and he would be sold in the January transfer window, but it seems like he has regained his form and he’s definitely a player that we all should monitor and continue to select him for our predictions.

That's nonsense and I don't think you believe it.
Let's see:

You can roll a dye once for $1 but if you win you get $1 million. You would take that bet, wouldn't you? And you would take it because of its massive, positive Expected Value. You can refuse to use the term "EV" for non-recurring bets and replace it with any other term if you wish (what would it be?), but it is what it is.

What do you guys think about Villa? Was my initial team to support for nostalgic reasons (and they weren't bad at all in earlier games) but after Gerrard got axed, they smacked Brentford and United, got smacked by Ncastle and United (in EFL).

New manager magic's gotta be wearing off, are we going to keep seeing see-saw Villa or Mr Hyde?

Asking cause already got money on Spurs on a long acca, not sure to hedge with Villa.

I believe in the past there's always been a leg down after a period of accumulation.  This time might not be any different.  However, I wouldn't risk sitting on the sidelines.  If it does take another step down and consolidates, that would be the absolute last chance to grab the bottom.  With all the calamity going on with exchanges rushing to get BTC to back their client funds after years of fractional reserve banking, it is possible that we don't see another leg down.  Either way, I'll be a buyer of the dip, or the flatline.

Yeah, last one ended better than expected with 3/7 for me. This week's Majestic 7 looks much easier for me and we have all the usual players to pick in most games like Salah, Mitrović, Toney, Almiron and then 3 much tougher games. I went with Moore for Bournemouth but Solanke is maybe even better option, you can pick anybody from front 4 for Arsenal, don't even remember who was my pick, maybe Saka and then Chelsea where you really can't pick a goal scorer.

This is just a simplified, easy-to-understand example of a potential real-life scenario, such as e.g. a sports bet with miscalculated odds (as mentioned in the discussion somewhere above), where you don't have any guarantee that a similar opportunity would happen ever again.


The EV formula presented is widely used in many areas, not only in gambling (i.e. as a business decision-making tool), and does not only work when you have an unlimited number of attempts and does not represent a guaranteed outcome.

But yeah, if you want to see +BTC1.04 average profit on each bet, you'd need to be able to place an unlimited number of bets. But that's not what this thread is about.

I predicted a 0-3 win for City based on Leeds not so good form during this season but I must say that I enjoyed the game yesterday night.I thought that City would be playing very well in order to show to other teams that they are still running for the title and would not concede but they did.

Hamilton even shared the top of the list of all-time champions along with Michael Schumacher, amos with seven achievements.
Unfortunately in 2021 he tried to lift another trophy in that ′′ fight ′′ he had with Max Verstappen until the last corners, but ended up being overtaken.
And in 2022 he was even among the best, but he is far from getting the best placement in the Drivers' World Championship.

Let's see how it will be in 2023, as Mercedes' promise is a competitive car, and the demonstration of this evolution already at the United States GP, left Hamilton excited for the contract renewal.

Honestly, I can't imagine Hamilton out of F1 for now, this is his place, and he still has many years ahead of him to win another title.

Not sure if I understand you correctly. Of course it does matter (a lot) if you only have one opportunity of making a single +EV bet. If you could do it multiple times then it's a no brainer - absolutely everyone would take such chance.

But when there's no guarantee that similar opportunities will ever arise - that's a whole different story, after all, you are still more likely to lose than to win, so there's also a logic behind not taking that bet.

As mentioned in the posts above - I'd be definitely in favour of taking a bet, but not sure what would be the most sensible approach in determining the right stake for it (or for mispriced underdogs in sports bets).

Right now I am really frustrated because we got no event this holiday end, but surely next year will be a great year for us because at the start of the year we will be having the UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Gastelum event, and from that event, for me, I am anticipating the Geoff Neal VS Shavkat Rakhmonov fight to be a real banger, and next event was UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill surely the main event will be juicy, and this is their trilogy fight and it will surely settle the score if who really deserves the title belt, The UFC 284 | Makhachev vs. Volkanovski event that will have so much juicy and well-known fight plus the UFC Fight Night | Vera vs. Sandhagen for me is surely a wait to behold,

The fight between Volkanovski and Makhachev is rather strange, because if you see Volkanovski opponents, most of them pure strikers or fighters whos striking skills were primary. Makhachev is a very inconvenient opponent for Volkanovski. Not to mention that Makhachev is 10sm higher than Volkanovski. A lot of factors is against Volkanovski. I was actually very surprised that Makhachev challenged Volkanovski after his victory over Oliveira, and how Alexander quickly accepted that challenge.

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

-----------------------

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC11) = +BTC1.04

Edit: calculation corrected, credit to Saint-loup

Set a budget: It is important to decide how much money you are willing to spend on gambling in advance and stick to that budget. This can help you avoid overspending or getting carried away.

Choose your games wisely: Some games have a higher house edge than others, which means that the casino or other gambling establishment has a greater advantage. Choose games that have a lower house edge, such as blackjack or craps, if you want to increase your chances of winning.

Practice good money management: It is important to manage your money well when gambling, which means not betting more than you can afford to lose and being careful not to chase your losses.

Stay sober: Alcohol can impair your judgment and make it more likely that you will make poor decisions while gambling. It is important to stay sober while gambling to help ensure that you are making decisions based on clear thinking.

I don't want to tell you my secret   cause you will copy it for the next year pool but I do something that I am always near the prize standings,last year I lost it for 2 points from the last price,this year I am in a good position at 12 points from the top so far so chances are high.

Since you don't know what you are doing half of the time why just not going to websites like this one freesupertips.com and put the tips that they put,sometimes they hit it really big although most of the times they don't do well and with that I just told you 30% of my secret  .

And I also think that Covington versus Edwards is going to be a good pay per view on generator for the UFC. But the question is, is that going to happen?

This is going to be fight to watch and not miss, but changing category and moving up can often be hard for fighters.
First thing I think is how Adesanya looked weaker when he moved to test himself in light heavyweight category.
Volkanovski has slight reach advantage but Makhachev is much taller and he has Khabib in his corner, and Khabib's father said that Makhacev is his best student.
My early predictions and bet would be on Islam Makhachev to win, but many things can change until then.