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1661  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: MMA Info and Predictions - Bellator, KSW, PFL, ONE... on: January 07, 2023, 01:51:01 PM



~
I'd like to see Jake Paul fight a couple of guys with a good wrestling background first before these big money events.  Wrestling is usually a problem when fighters with a primary striking base enter MMA.
Jake Paul has an amateur wrestling background and then he made his transition to boxing, so he has the basics regarding take down defense unlike pure strikers who added wrestling at a later part of their career.

Ah...  Then that makes his transition to MMA a lot easier.  On top of my head UFC fighters Cody Durden and Jonathan Pearce both have high school wrestling backgrounds and they've been holding their own.  Durden is so so but Jonathan Pearce could be a top 5 guy sooner or later.

All in all, I'm excited for Jake Paul's first MMA match.  I'll take a shot on whoever is the underdog.  Grin  If it's Jake Paul, books prolly doesn't rate his wrestling background high which could be a mistake and if it's the other guy then books could be overestimating Jake Paul's chances if that makes any sense.  Lol.  There's just a lot of unknowns.
1662  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 07, 2023, 01:43:06 PM
^  That's if the other organizations are willing to match or pay more than what the UFC is paying their fighters for.  I couldn't imagine Bellator or the PFL give somebody like Ngannou a more lucrative contract without breaking the bank which could be a bad decision as nobody really gives af about Bellator compared to the UFC.  They're no. 1 for a reason.

But the clause will be good for MMA for sure and the fighters.  It could even make those guys from Bellator like AJ McKee have an easier time transitioning to the UFC without a lot of contract disputes.
1663  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Looking for the Next Great 1000x on: January 06, 2023, 08:26:21 PM
No point searching for x100 or x1000 as they will be only be created/launched in the next bull market. Look at all those token that did well in last bull run, they are fairly new coins in the market while some that keep on building during last bear market did not perform well. Just keep an eye on what’s happening in the next bull run.  Wink Wink Wink Wink

No point?  I don't think so...  There's always a point.  And the point in this case is to gamble in these little sh*ts while they're low and have fun watching them rise when things start coming around and the market goes in a full blown bull mode.  Lol.

And that's not the best part...  The most hilarious part in these things is they pump higher than a lot of those projects that take themselves seriously.  Grin  Again, it's all based in a premise written in the OP and there's also the Elon factor to think about.  Once that guy starts yapping in Twitter about anything doge related, expect these things to pump.  

Anyway, drop your favorite projects that meet the criteria itt and let's see them.  Wink
1664  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: MMA Info and Predictions - Bellator, KSW, PFL, ONE... on: January 06, 2023, 07:36:25 PM
Btw Jake Paul is teasing Nate Diaz. He offers Nate a boxing fight, then, after 6 months, a fighter under MMA rules. If Nate agrees, he might get a good purse, as well as this would be a nice slap (slap lol) on Dana White if Jake wins. Another UFC fighter get beaten by YouTuber. However, Nate has recently posted a RIZIN picture in his twitter. I wonder what would that mean? Just teasing or planning to sign a contract?

Before Anderson Silva, Nate Diaz might have considered taking that fight.  But after Anderson Silva, no...  Nate Diaz ain't signing on the dotted line.  Jake Paul is physically bigger and stronger too.  I don't think he could go down to 170, Nate Diaz's current ideal fighting weight, without draining himself.

Btw Jake Paul is teasing Nate Diaz. He offers Nate a boxing fight, then, after 6 months, a fighter under MMA rules. If Nate agrees, he might get a good purse, as well as this would be a nice slap (slap lol) on Dana White if Jake wins. Another UFC fighter get beaten by YouTuber. However, Nate has recently posted a RIZIN picture in his twitter. I wonder what would that mean? Just teasing or planning to sign a contract?
They can always make one more cross promotion event, like it happened on December 31 with Rizin and Bellator.
I am sure that PFL is going to agree on something similar if Nate signs for Rizin and Jake Paul is in PFL.
We just need UFC and ONE Championship to start doing this, and we can have MMA World League soon Smiley

I'd like to see Jake Paul fight a couple of guys with a good wrestling background first before these big money events.  Wrestling is usually a problem when fighters with a primary striking base enter MMA.
1665  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 06, 2023, 07:27:33 PM



^  Yup.  I actually have high regard for Eddie Howe and I actually said I fancy him managing a club like Arsenal or a club in the same tier as Arsenal.  I think it was 3 - 4 years ago.  Some time before covid. 

So yeah..  Just amazed how he's evolved.  With Bournemouth score lines would usually be 3 - 2, 2 - 1, mostly over 2.5 goals matches.  With Newcastle, the defense is just solid.  And with that oiler money backing the club, they're gonna be a force that's gonna be hard to deal with.

With only a few signings, the team already appears to be balanced and ready to compete for top four and six at the end of the season; when the oil money is put to use, they may well turn into title contenders next season; they have the resources and a good coach who plays beautiful attacking football. From being the poorest-funded squad in 20 years to one of the wealthiest in the world. How quickly time passes. Cool

But would love to see it.  It's been a while since an English Manager won the league.

never won one. i don't think so

Oh right!  No English manager has won the title in the Premier League era...  So we have two in the top flight that could get a chance.  Graham Potter and Eddie Howe.  I think both have the capability but they'll need a decent squad and the timing like how Arteta at Arsenal is doing right now.  He needed some mishaps from City to get 5 points ahead.  I don't think it could happen s couple of years ago.

As for Graham Potter and Chelsea, does anybody think Chelsea would've fared better if they just stuck with Tuchel?

And what does City's performance say about their upcoming derby vs United?  Another low scoring affair?
1666  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 06, 2023, 07:13:09 PM
Well, uncle Dana White doesn't want to slap a fighter that may retaliate so he is using his wife as a substitute, well he is a well-known person who needs to learn to control his temper just one piece of negative news about the UFC will surely suffer from that consequence
Let's be honest and say that his wife gave the first slap attack and after that he replied with his slaps, but something stinks in this whole story, and we don't know what Dana told her before slap.
Much more people are now aware of his Power Slap competition, after someone conveniently recorded that video in night club.



The whole slap incident with his wife is both funny and ironic because of his upcoming Power Slap promotion.  Lolol.  Cheesy  He prolly told his wife to slap him first so he could slap him next and show everybody how it's done.  Maybe they should make a power slap demo with Dana White.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  Oh man...  The memes are gonna be hilarious.

But seriously I don't think it's over yet even tho Dana White and the UFC seem to be handling the whole thing really well...  I haven't seen a women's group or some feminism group calling for the cancellation of the UFC so that's good.  Lmao. 
1667  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 05, 2023, 03:47:50 PM
^  Yup.  I actually have high regard for Eddie Howe and I actually said I fancy him managing a club like Arsenal or a club in the same tier as Arsenal.  I think it was 3 - 4 years ago.  Some time before covid. 

So yeah..  Just amazed how he's evolved.  With Bournemouth score lines would usually be 3 - 2, 2 - 1, mostly over 2.5 goals matches.  With Newcastle, the defense is just solid.  And with that oiler money backing the club, they're gonna be a force that's gonna be hard to deal with.

With only a few signings, the team already appears to be balanced and ready to compete for top four and six at the end of the season; when the oil money is put to use, they may well turn into title contenders next season; they have the resources and a good coach who plays beautiful attacking football. From being the poorest-funded squad in 20 years to one of the wealthiest in the world. How quickly time passes. Cool

Newcastle will be in the running but hard to day if they're def gonna be title contenders.  City is still strong, Arsenal seems like they're the real deal, Liverpool could find a resurgence and don't forget Graham Potter and Chelsea after a summer buying spree.  Lots of good teams in the EPL...  There's also United and the Spurs who are always there for a top 4 - top 6 scrap.

But would love to see it.  It's been a while since an English Manager won the league.
1668  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: January 05, 2023, 03:36:16 PM

I have heard that Hyundai and Porsche are also preparing to join F1 by that season also.

These two brands are the other strongest candidates to be seen here for now. But we will see how they will want to join this environment. Maybe both of them would like to provide engine to some teams. Ford and BMW are other brands in such speculations but there is no statement by their sides as far as I know. BMW are interested in endurance racing rather than F1 these days. Ford might be a more powerful candidate but we will see if it's true in the coming days.

Until now we have Audi officially coming in F1 in 2026.

Porsche is very close to be official.
The rumor for them was to enter With RBR but they denied it and they want to be an independent team.

These are the most probable teams.


We also have 2 small rumors for 2027 for Hyundai and Ford but we basically know nothing about it.

We have seen a Ford works team have a couple of seasons in F1 but Hyundai?  Do they even have the technical know how to compete in such a cut throat sport like F1?  The established teams will chew them up and spit them out easy.  But the more teams the better.  I'd like to see Toyota come back in F1 too and get some more Asian automakers represented in F1.  

Another rumor that seems to be gaining momentum is Andretti seems to be interested to get in F1 as early as 2024.  That would be great!

Here's the betting market for the outrights in case anybody is interested.  H2H bets look fun.  Smiley

https://stake.com/sports/outright/formula-1/formula-1/formula-1-2023/43033628-formula-1-2023
1669  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 05, 2023, 03:09:19 PM
^  If watch the match tho, Phil Hawes didn't really do anything vs Imavov except grind him in the cage then nothing.  It went on for a couple of rounds until there was some adjustment from Imavov in the third but it was too late.  Hawes was already up a couple of rounds.

Gastelum is prolly on his way out.

Anyway, at first glance I like Imavov, Soriano, Vieira, Nurmagomedov, Alhassan, Nascimento and Jimmy Flick.  I could go for some parlays on those guys and a straight bet on Flick.  He was pretty good in the regional scene and Charles Johnson seems like  he doesn't any urgency in the cage.  It could cost him.
1670  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: MMA Info and Predictions - Bellator, KSW, PFL, ONE... on: January 05, 2023, 03:00:40 PM
^  Yeah he could get beat in MMA but Jake Paul has been smart in which opponents to pick.  I never really thought much of him until he pulled off a W vs Anderson Silva.  His stock went way up after that match.

As for the UFC not allowing their fighters to compete in other promotions, why would they?  The UFC is trying to build a brand to be the best promotion for MMA.  If you guys noticed, it's not really about the fighters when it comes to the UFC...  It's about the UFC, the brand.  They're trying to run it like a real company, a real league, a real sport all rolled into one.
1671  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io ⚽ Southampton + Arsenal ⚽ Prediction Contest (Sat + Mon) on: January 05, 2023, 12:53:03 PM
Game 1:  32, 50'
Game 2:  32, 15'
1672  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 04, 2023, 04:23:46 PM
^  Yup.  I actually have high regard for Eddie Howe and I actually said I fancy him managing a club like Arsenal or a club in the same tier as Arsenal.  I think it was 3 - 4 years ago.  Some time before covid. 

So yeah..  Just amazed how he's evolved.  With Bournemouth score lines would usually be 3 - 2, 2 - 1, mostly over 2.5 goals matches.  With Newcastle, the defense is just solid.  And with that oiler money backing the club, they're gonna be a force that's gonna be hard to deal with.
1673  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 04, 2023, 02:16:12 PM
Superbru's website is totally a garbage put together Roll Eyes

I opened flashscore on two different browsers and my phone to double check if I was dreaming or some shit lol





Meanwhile Brighton is totally trashing Everton around. Lampard got alot of things to handle if he wants to survive the relegation zone by the end of the season

Lol yup, the site kinda is clunky.  And now the app is acting up too.  Sometimes I can't connect and have to delete and install it again.

I would've had Arsenal scoring a couple of goals and prolly a goal for Newcastle, for a 2 - 1.  But now looking at the stats, I didn't know Newcastle has the least goals against with just 11 goals scored against them.  It's far from how Eddie Howe played his squad at Bournemouth.  Lol.  Looks like he must have realized a thing or two after he got the sack.
1674  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: January 04, 2023, 02:05:02 PM

...

I guess what I'm trying to say is if it's a +EV bet but allowed only to take once then what's the point of EV?  One bet means nothing EVwise unless proven over a large sample.

That's nonsense and I don't think you believe it.
Let's see:

You can roll a dye once for $1 but if you win you get $1 million. You would take that bet, wouldn't you? And you would take it because of its massive, positive Expected Value. You can refuse to use the term "EV" for non-recurring bets and replace it with any other term if you wish (what would it be?), but it is what it is.


Again, what did we learn from such an exercise?  What could one bet teach us if we took it?  Could EV really be realized with just one bet then nothing?  Nope..  That's why I'm saying it's missing the whole point of what Expected Value really is.  The question in your exercise should be asking if we should bet the spot everytime even if we lose, which the answer is a resounding 'yes'.

Here's an explanation about EV with a couple of good examples.

https://upswingpoker.com/expected-value-ev-poker/

Memory loss? You've already replied to that post and now you're just repeating yourself bringing nothing new to discussion.

I replied to you here:

...
In your extreme example of EV above, sure you should take it, that's a once in a life time spot.  Lol.  But let's be real here...

The question was not whether you'd take that bet or not, I know you would. Just as I know you wouldn't take a bet of $1 on a coin toss if the potential winning was $0.10.
The question is WHY you would/wouldn't take such bets if it's not for their positive/negative EV? If you refuse to use the term and calculation of EV for one-time bets, then how do you assess whether a one-time bet is worth taking or not and what do you call it?


Estimating EV for a single bet helps you make decision on whether the bet is worth taking or not. I used two extreme examples above (of high and low EV bets) to prove a point. In making such decision, you will be trying to assess the EV value, whether you want to admit it or not. Even if you won't perform an actual EV calculation, you will still try to roughly assess on whether it's a good deal or not, which really no different.

Sure, EV for recurring bets will give you much clearer picture of expected long-term outcome (assuming unlimited bets and unlimited bankroll), but to discard the use of EV in any other situation is just dumb.

Here's an example of use of EV calculation for deciding on particular business decision: Link

You can apply that to any event where you can define the probability and an outcome result (incl. bets).





Again, I'm just saying that the premise in the OP saying to 'bet once then nothing' sets the noobs the wrong idea about EV.  Sure it's the right spot to take but then what?  What if the bet loses?  What's the explanation that it was the right spot to take...  Where's the realizing EV part?

Ok..  Maybe I jumped the gun too fast by saying the premise is wrong.  It's more like it's incomplete.  As you may already know, EV is only realized over a large sample.  So yeah..
1675  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: SINBAD MIXER Bitcoin Price Prediction Challenge on: January 04, 2023, 01:37:18 PM
Prediction 1:  $16,411.11
bech32 address:  bc1q7a5lnkmaap82e6afz8ftw8euuyl6nzhfltdm24
1676  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io 🏈 Week #18 Sunday Football Giveaway 🏈 on: January 04, 2023, 01:31:20 PM
1. IND
2. TEX
3. IND
4. Under
5. 2nd
6. Odd
7. Odd
8. IND
9. IND
10. IND

Final Score prediction:  17 - 7
1677  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io 🥊 Gervonta Davis vs Hector Luis Garcia 🥊 (Saturday) on: January 04, 2023, 01:27:38 PM
1.  Davis
2.  Round 10
3.  2
1678  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: January 03, 2023, 01:47:31 PM

...

I guess what I'm trying to say is if it's a +EV bet but allowed only to take once then what's the point of EV?  One bet means nothing EVwise unless proven over a large sample.

That's nonsense and I don't think you believe it.
Let's see:

You can roll a dye once for $1 but if you win you get $1 million. You would take that bet, wouldn't you? And you would take it because of its massive, positive Expected Value. You can refuse to use the term "EV" for non-recurring bets and replace it with any other term if you wish (what would it be?), but it is what it is.


Again, what did we learn from such an exercise?  What could one bet teach us if we took it?  Could EV really be realized with just one bet then nothing?  Nope..  That's why I'm saying it's missing the whole point of what Expected Value really is.  The question in your exercise should be asking if we should bet the spot everytime even if we lose, which the answer is a resounding 'yes'.

Here's an explanation about EV with a couple of good examples.

https://upswingpoker.com/expected-value-ev-poker/
1679  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread on: January 03, 2023, 01:37:24 PM
Damn, I should've taken Brentford draw no bet at 3.90 anyway even though I lost my Spurs and Chelsea parlay...  I just watched a bit of the replay and could say that it will prolly be Liverpool's worst performance of the season.  I think it's time for Klopp to go talk to the LFC brass and ask for a budget for a midfield upgrade.  Prolly even raiding his old club BVB for Jude Bellingham..?  Would love to see that guy back with a big club.  Wink

Anyway does anybody else have connection problems with Superbru?  It's being weird again.
1680  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 03, 2023, 01:26:49 PM
^  Wups what a PR disaster for the UFC.  I mean I've defended Dana White itt in the past but that one has no excuse.  Sure his slap was a reaction to his wife's slap to him but there's still no excuse.  They should've taken it in private.  But then again they were drunk.  One of the reasons why a guy like him shouldn't consume a lot of alcohol in public.  It makes people dumb.  He should've just smoked weed and had a good time.  Lol.  But seriously, he should have.

So is he gonna be suspended?  Given the sack?  What a dilemma.  The UFC isn't ready without Dana White even tho Hunter Campbell, Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard have mostly been running everything behind the scenes.
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