Welcome in an exciting year for Bitcoins. I wish you a great, happy and healthy year 2011.
Tonight I want to particularly thank tcatm for the great charting website, which enabled a true stepchange in BTC market analysis and I am sure you all use and tell your friends who are interested to follow BTCs.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/Now to tonight's Technical BTC Update, the first in 2011 (charts can be found here:
http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=153).
Our forecast remains fully on track . The trend is UP since the Dec 7 low. Prices have strongly moved higher on rising volume and hit 0.30 $ (up more than 600% over the past 5 months).
Only if the big support around 0.17-0.20 is breached again materially, further declines are possible towards 0.1 - 0.14 $.
Otherwise the longterm rally is intact.
Analysis
1. Long term outlook
We are in an almost textbook-type rally. Prices are on their way towards 0.35 $ (stronger resistance) and then 0.50 $ (all time high, very weak resistance as trading volume at the peak was negligable, see Nov 7 peak chart, 2nd chart in this post). Upside almost seems unlimited if markets continue to be that strong and further funds will be inflowing. I will update on price targets when we get beyond the 0.50 $ high. We are currently in a third of a third wave up which typically surprise on the upside, and in turn it is dangerous to bet on the downside.
2. Short term update
Forecast also fully on track on a short term basis. Upper short term resistance of 0.25-0.26 has just been cleared. The dark pool ASK at 0.25 has been evaporated. Prices will likely move towards 0.35 once psychological resistance at 0.30 $ is taken out. Expect this resistance to be minor.
Next regular update Wednesday, Jan 5th.
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