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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 504420 times)
S3052
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August 30, 2011, 06:52:00 PM
 #1161

Like many people said, we should not look too much into the orderbook. Experienced traders, and particularly those who can use bots, will use this to fool others with this strategy.
I agree with this, but the idea of "fake walls" is completely ridiculous, and I’m quite sick of reading it on these forums. I haven’t seen any that were cancelled when touched for a while. Also, I remember a wall of 10k BTC somewhere around ~8.5$ recently which was completely filled at ONCE.

Walls are not fake. Every single order can be filled without any chance for the owner to cancel it if it happens at once, even the very big ones by people who have the means to. It is a real risk to have such an order without intending to actually have it executed.

But generally it is true that the order book is way too easy to manipulate by bots, changing the entire shape in seconds. This can be prevented by small, for humans insignificant fees for cancellation or setting of orders.

I have viewed quite  a few fake walls, which really disappered quickly (perhaps got partially filled). So it is definitely happening. At the same time, there are also many real walls.

Net, there is both happening.

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August 30, 2011, 07:14:57 PM
 #1162

I have viewed quite  a few fake walls, which really disappered quickly (perhaps got partially filled). So it is definitely happening. At the same time, there are also many real walls.

Net, there is both happening.

Yeah, I remember some from the past. My point is that you can fill them fully without them having a chance to react if you have enough funds.

I see a decrease in the effectiveness of such manipulation, imo the order book influences very little anymore, even if extremely unbalanced. We’ve seen a strong downward push when bids outnumbered asks by >2:1, and now the picture has completely changed.

A thing to keep in mind is that there can also be manipulation in form a lack of bids/asks, and not only from walls. I’ve experienced that the last few weeks when supply seemed to be dried up, but when someone bought a bunch, the bots just refilled.

----

To come back to topic: MtGox’s loops make it really hard to judge any charts. Does anyone know of a chart that manages to filter this crap, plus its volume?

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
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August 30, 2011, 10:26:36 PM
 #1163

I am really hoping the exchanges will be more proactive managing all those issues and come up with the right steps to bring more confidence of investors and traders, technical people, everyone soon.

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September 02, 2011, 07:39:56 AM
 #1164

This is not directly related to bitcoin trading and bitcoin chart analysis, but can have a big impact on bitcoin prices:

check this out.

http://bit.ly/nXcRYg

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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September 02, 2011, 08:11:41 AM
 #1165

This is not directly related to bitcoin trading and bitcoin chart analysis, but can have a big impact on bitcoin prices:

check this out.

http://bit.ly/nXcRYg

That's not really news, these declarations have been around for a while.

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September 02, 2011, 08:17:59 AM
 #1166

thanks. I did not come across this one yet.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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September 02, 2011, 05:35:15 PM
 #1167

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com

latest short term analysis

>15years analysis experience

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September 03, 2011, 05:21:51 AM
 #1168

IMO there's too much bot noise on mtgox to get a clear read of investor sentiment.  Try the same timeframe on e.g. tradehill.

I see $8 by Wed. of next week far more likely than a breakdown to $5, let alone $3.  Over the next few weeks, sure, we could hit those lows.   Short term?  I don't see the same breakdown you do.  Just continued slow pain for the longs, no quick decisive surgical action.
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September 03, 2011, 09:54:34 AM
 #1169

I don't see it either. The midterm can be said to be down but the short term can't anymore. In fact it's becoming more unclear every day if the midterm is down either.

There is massive resistance on the way down to $5, in fact breaking $7 seems really hard and fairly important at this point if there is to be a really low price. And importantly, the volumes for bear days have been very low as well so there is really no strong will to go either up or down.

I agree with chodpabas recent assessment of there not actually being a trend either way at this point. We're simply seeing traders moving the price up and down but the general trend of people wanting to buy and people wanting to sell seems fairly even right now. Now is the time when a big time investor, or a big time seller, could make a large impact and change the game.

I'm really interested in the current situation because it might be that we won't see the kind of lows at all that some people have predicted. I have this month in general as a bull month and I was hoping for a lower low so the rally can really start, but now it's hard to say when we'll have a clear trend. Without a clear trend it's going to require a lot of new interest in Bitcoin to raise the price significantly because a lot of currently involved investment money is not committing without a clear trend.

And perhaps a clear upward trend requires a lot of new interest anyway, so Smiley

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September 03, 2011, 11:15:12 AM
 #1170

What you are projecting is a possibility, but remains our alternate forecast as long as we do not see a strong breakout above 12 $.

As long as this remains, we continue to expect lower prices. Often the markets do not need a reason for falling, they just fall upon its onw weight.

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September 03, 2011, 05:50:24 PM
 #1171

What you are projecting is a possibility, but remains our alternate forecast as long as we do not see a strong breakout above 12 $.

As long as this remains, we continue to expect lower prices. Often the markets do not need a reason for falling, they just fall upon its onw weight.


Please remember this market has a built in ongoing negative bias.  Approximately .1% of the market cap (and a much larger % of the float) gets added daily through mining activity.  The graph looks different if you "trend adjust" 3% monthly.

That said, we're definitely looking at a pennant on the weekly chart confirmed by volume (although I'm not sure how much I trust the volumes in a bot-infested market).  Definitely could go either way soon, and violently.  I completely agree - the market is hanging back waiting for leadership.


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September 03, 2011, 07:23:10 PM
 #1172

And perhaps a clear upward trend requires a lot of new interest anyway, so Smiley

Ya... I think that this is the key point... Bitcoin isn't going to go up until the fundamentals dictate the need for a higher price.

The economy size is slowly growing to the size that supports the current value (maybe $5 atm... eg. equiv 35M market cap.)  Once the underlying market grows in size larger than the price represented on mtgox, then more bitcoin's will (on average) be withdrawn from mtgox than deposited.  (They are more valuable elsewhere).   The will tighten up the entire trading market; this will be reflected on the price.  (Rarer coins fetch higher prices).

For a big rally, we need the competition for the bitcoins…  The most natural way we can get more competition are more investors going after the same pool…?

I think that both is happening:  as bitcoins are getting valued more elsewhere, the flow of bitcoin’s into mtgox and other trading sites will slow down, causing the pool to get smaller;  and that more investors are slowly taking an interest in holding bitcoins.

The real question is when the market will start feeling ‘tight.’

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September 04, 2011, 01:19:18 PM
 #1173

The poll is reset again. What is your view?

Up?
Down?
Same?
Don't know?


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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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September 04, 2011, 05:50:54 PM
 #1174

Ya... I think that this is the key point... Bitcoin isn't going to go up until the fundamentals dictate the need for a higher price.

Bitcoin, or its price is what never can be controlled or dictated.

The way to get bitcoin price up is taking part in getting up overall bitcoin turnover. What makes turnover? Goods or services. But what crazymen will offer goods or services with current exchange rate volatility?

There is the one business which is not so sencitive to volatility. Is the gambling and HYPEs.

So it is the bitcoin gamling epoch is now comming, which will make the major turnover percent and will rise bitcoin price. When the price will get stable, people will look around to offer goods and services for bitcoin.

But now bitcoin is just great buble. Its price is 100% correlated with its popularity.

Sorry If my english not perfect.
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September 04, 2011, 05:53:16 PM
 #1175

Ya... I think that this is the key point... Bitcoin isn't going to go up until the fundamentals dictate the need for a higher price.

Bitcoin, or its price is what never can be controlled or dictated.

The way to get bitcoin price up is taking part in getting up overall bitcoin turnover. What makes turnover? Goods or services. But what crazymen will offer goods or services with current exchange rate volatility?

There is the one business which is not so sencitive to volatility. Is the gambling and HYPEs.

So it is the bitcoin gamling epoch of is now comming, which will make the major turnover percent and will rise bitcoin price. When the price will get stable, people will look around to offer goods and services for bitcoin.

But now bitcoin is just great buble. Its price is 100% correlated with its popularity.

Sorry If my english not perfect.


Oh my good sir... this crazy man called Xenland right here mate... hehe

Locked in monthly BTC prices. I don't follow exchange rate.
www.CheaperInBitcoins.com hopefully this will help the flow of Bitcoins and "tighten" the market a tid-bit.
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September 04, 2011, 05:56:47 PM
 #1176

Oh my good sir... this crazy man called Xenland right here mate... hehe

Locked in monthly BTC prices. I don't follow exchange rate.
www.CheaperInBitcoins.com hopefully this will help the flow of Bitcoins and "tighten" the market a tid-bit.

My respects bro, but not all ecommerces are just so desperate Smiley
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September 04, 2011, 06:08:44 PM
 #1177

Oh my good sir... this crazy man called Xenland right here mate... hehe

Locked in monthly BTC prices. I don't follow exchange rate.
www.CheaperInBitcoins.com hopefully this will help the flow of Bitcoins and "tighten" the market a tid-bit.

My respects bro, but not all ecommerces are just so desperate Smiley

Its not desperate if you can make a profit.. its called running a business Smiley
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September 04, 2011, 06:11:44 PM
 #1178


Its not desperate if you can make a profit.. its called running a business Smiley

PM sent Xenland

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September 04, 2011, 07:05:24 PM
 #1179

Oh my good sir... this crazy man called Xenland right here mate... hehe

Locked in monthly BTC prices. I don't follow exchange rate.
www.CheaperInBitcoins.com hopefully this will help the flow of Bitcoins and "tighten" the market a tid-bit.

My respects bro, but not all ecommerces are just so desperate Smiley
Not trying to attack, just making a point but:
Now that i think about it; It would be more difficult to go by the exchange rate. I mean at least I check my invoices at least 3-5 times a day and bitcoin prices change quicker and faster then that, by the time I would notice that someone put in an order the exchange rate would have already changed and I end up having to pay for the customer either way(unless i forced customers to pay for the price difference, which by that time exchange rate could go back up). At best I could hook up my website to an exchange API but those are prone to hax and your forced to go by one exchanger unless you programmed to go off by the best available price from multple exchangers in which that case you have to do even more programming and testing

Just sounds like a fuster cluck to me.....
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September 04, 2011, 07:54:20 PM
 #1180

Im going to sleep now guys..and when i wake up its gonna be around 7.9$...cause im just lucky like that..bet if i sell out right now the price will shoot up..lol
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