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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509481 times)
netrin
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September 13, 2011, 11:28:57 PM
 #1201

I think you will agree its hard to eat that one.

I do agree. Maybe they're covering up mistakes. Or maybe they've learned from earlier mistakes and are well prepared for compromised accounts and handling their repercussions. Mt. Gox has had time and incentive to come up with a solution neither of us has yet contemplated.

I think it would be great if MtGox and/or bitcoinwatch could clear up this fog.

S3052, I thought you were bitcoinwatch.

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S3052
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September 14, 2011, 09:15:28 AM
 #1202

I think you will agree its hard to eat that one.

I do agree. Maybe they're covering up mistakes. Or maybe they've learned from earlier mistakes and are well prepared for compromised accounts and handling their repercussions. Mt. Gox has had time and incentive to come up with a solution neither of us has yet contemplated.

I think it would be great if MtGox and/or bitcoinwatch could clear up this fog.

S3052, I thought you were bitcoinwatch.

No. I am just leading the technical analysis blog on bitcoinwatch.
All other things on bitcoinwatch are led by the bitcoinwatch owner.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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S3052
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September 16, 2011, 12:09:08 PM
 #1203

The poll is reset again. What is your view?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?


>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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netrin
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September 16, 2011, 12:45:29 PM
 #1204

Hi S3052, Have you archived all previous results from this poll? Is that available?

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S3052
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September 16, 2011, 01:29:16 PM
 #1205

Hi S3052, Have you archived all previous results from this poll? Is that available?

yes, I will publish these in the next 2 weeks.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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S3052
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September 19, 2011, 01:25:23 PM
 #1206

Here is the  Bitcoin Technical and Bitcoin Chart Analysis, with the intent to forecast Bitcoin prices.

Please donate here if you wish to see it continued:

14TeeHy4igXUgfnjXmCFG5MwkcRKZRkprS




Overall, Bitcoin prices are at a very interesting juncture and people may memorize the "Bitcoin September 2011" in history.

As expected in the last technical analysis, bitcoin prices did not hold the 5.74 $ level. Bitcoin prices fell another -30% to 4.18 $.

Looking ahead, the stabilization around the 4 $ range in recent days, plus the bullish divergences of key indicators point to a strong possibility of a rally.

 

 chart: see http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com

 

Technical Analysis

We focus today on the big picture, the long term view.

There is a lot of chatter about the "BITCOIN BUBBLE", but in reality there is no bubble in bitcoins. Definitely not yet. Why is the decline from June no bubble?

 

1) The bitcoin price decline as evident in the attached logarithmic bitcoin chart looks like a standard correction: The 1 year rally has been much steeper than the 3 months correction. The logarithmic chart is the right way to visualize prices because prices rose exponentially in a very short period of time.

2) The volumes in turnover (not shown here) of the rally is much stronger than the volume of the past 3 months correction.

 

3) Pessimism has been and still is very strong, as evidenced by bitcoin investor sentiment poll data and the "doom & gloom" comments in the bitcoin forum. We have been using this sentiment very successfully as contrary indicator: When too many people are bearish, they are not invested and hope for lower prices. As prices may never get lower, they need to chase the rally in some point and the rally gains momentum.

4) Key indicators such as RSI and MACD show bullish divergences (see bitcoin chart)

5) Bitcoin prices have respected the key long term red uptrend line and tested successfully. This uptrend line is very strong support. And even another decline into the 3-4 $ area is still a possibility which would not invalidate the longterm uptrend as we can draw the uptrend line also a bit different (see orange line).

6) Bitcoin prices are on the verge of a breakout above the green downtrend line, which could initiate a strong rally.

 

Only a high volume, sustained break below 3 $ will make us turn long term bearish bitcoins. Otherwise, there is upside potential to new all time highs, into the 50 - 100 $ area. At the same time, one has to be patient, as the rise to those levels will not be a "straight line".

As always, we update the short term picture closely in the subscriber section of http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com

 

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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speeder
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September 19, 2011, 01:38:44 PM
 #1207

So... BUY BUY BUY!!!!

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September 19, 2011, 02:24:02 PM
 #1208

Yes, pretty much BUY BUY BUY!
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September 19, 2011, 02:36:07 PM
 #1209

I would like that before the rally bitcoin to be something about $2, and everybody have the chance to buy some. Also I say again, bitcoin should be used as MONEY more! A new speculative rally, even with "new highs up to $100" means nothing if 6 months after this 1 BTC = 4 USD.

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September 19, 2011, 02:59:38 PM
 #1210

The fact that so many people "would like" to see lower prices before is a good sentiment indicator that new lows get less and less likely.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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bitcoinTrader
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September 19, 2011, 03:03:01 PM
 #1211

I am happy, as long as the market moves in either direction, though would be happier with rally Smiley

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September 19, 2011, 04:04:43 PM
 #1212

I was hoping it go to 2...

But since the bottom is at 4.5 or something, I made my new investments at 5 USD. Smiley

Lower than my last time! (8 USD)

=D

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September 23, 2011, 07:43:28 PM
 #1213

I cannot see how this long term support channel (http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/BTCUSD20110919-dailylog1-bclong-ind1.png) works - the investors who remember the minima it goes through are such a small percentage of the speculators of today, I cannot see how this memory could survive, but apparently it holds so far.  Self fulfilling prophecy?
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September 23, 2011, 07:48:22 PM
 #1214

I’d say that they have a great percentage of BTC and USD funds though.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
Xenland
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September 23, 2011, 09:11:07 PM
 #1215

The fact that so many people "would like" to see lower prices before is a good sentiment indicator that new lows get less and less likely.
This guy(or gal) is so pro he uses the psycology of the community to assist him in his predicitons thats some smart thinking i gotta say youve been pretty on par for as long as i been tracking your predictions.

Great work!
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September 24, 2011, 08:13:00 AM
 #1216

Thank you. I always try to do my best.

by the way, I have reset the poll again. As promised, a sentiment analysis will be done this weekend and shared publicly.


What is your view?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
zby
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September 24, 2011, 09:59:26 AM
 #1217

The first time I bought at one of these tangent points - and that was a great decision Smiley
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September 25, 2011, 11:18:17 AM
 #1218

Thank you. I always try to do my best.

by the way, I have reset the poll again. As promised, a sentiment analysis will be done this weekend and shared publicly.


What is your view?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?


Quite a difference in sentiment compared to recent past polls.
Xenland
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September 25, 2011, 11:27:06 AM
 #1219

I voted "Same as now" as there are pretty big walls in the $5-$6 range. But I am not an active trader so it could be that MtGox just looks like it has huge walls in my perspective
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September 25, 2011, 11:39:56 AM
 #1220

I voted "Same as now" as there are pretty big walls in the $5-$6 range. But I am not an active trader so it could be that MtGox just looks like it has huge walls in my perspective

Yeah, I don't think you ought to be using the market depth for a 4 week projection.
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