Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

As promised, here is tonight's Technical BTC Update. full update + charts on:
http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=55

As many of you have realized, the market is relatively unchanged over the past days, so I only did minor tweaks in the re-post of Wednesday's update. I am sure price action will get exciting again. Often, this happens when most people do not expect it, so stay alert.
Overall, there are no fundamental changes in our the outlook. The bulls are in the attack, but the bears hold the lid on the market around 0.30-0.35$.

Analysis
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD are in rally mode. The longterm chart that shows the perfect uptrend line (now around 0.265 $ and rising ) and also the 0.30 - 0.35$ resistance.

Strong upside targets are the previous high, 0.50 $, dollar parity at 1.00 $, and then the 1.30 - 1.50 area.
Support lies in the 0.265 area (trendline), 0.25 and o.20-0.22 afterwards.

2. Short term update

No change: The inverted head and shoulders pattern is still intact, awaiting the breakout to the upside, which is still the most likely scenario. Based on my daily analysis of the order book, ASK volume is declining, indicating that buyers "slowly eat up the cake above them".

[S3052]

http://mtgox.com/blog/?p=60

Tonights update including the special for this week with the order book review.

[S3052]

This is to share an interim alert on BTC/USD.

Prices are violating the longterm trendline and have broken DOWN.

We will see how material this break is, but the technical picture does not look good at this stage. It at least means that the correction that started on Nov 6th may be extending to previous support levels.



One resistance is 0.2 $. If this breaks, we may quickly see prices moving down to the before-mentioned 0.11-0.14 $ zone.

[kiba]

Price collapse. Wow.

[wumpus]

Darn, someone is selling wildly.

Anyone that wants to trade MtGox USD for Paypal USD please msg me

[ribuck]

Darn, someone is selling wildly

I wonder if that person sold because they saw S3052's red text earlier in this thread.

[wumpus]

I wonder if that person sold because they saw S3052's red text earlier in this thread.

Too bad it takes days for me to get money on mtgox, otherwise I'd have bought like madness

[brocktice]

I commented earlier on the mtgox blog, but difficulty is about to increase again, making bitcoins a little harder to come by. I wonder whether this might stave off a longer-term drop?

[Bimmerhead]

Darn, someone is selling wildly

I wonder if that person sold because they saw S3052's red text earlier in this thread.

Nah, price dropped because I bought a bunch the other day.  Happens with just about everything I buy.

Maybe I should post my trades so you guys can make a bundle short selling.

[caveden]

I wonder if that person sold because they saw S3052's red text earlier in this thread.

Me too.

[ribuck]

Nah, price dropped because I bought a bunch the other day.

Naah. Price dropped because you stopped buying.

[S3052]

There are still huge selling orders just above 0.28 in mtgox which is massive resistance. Unless this resistance is cleared, there is no upside and prices may meander between here and 0.20 and potentially in another wave down to 0.11-0.14 if more BTC holders get impatient or nervous like today.

[ribuck]

There are still huge selling orders just above 0.28 in mtgox

If people could get money into MtGox using PayPal or a credit card, I think those offers would be filled very quickly.

[brocktice]

I think those offers would be filled very quickly.

On what do you base that statement?

[ribuck]

I think those offers would be filled very quickly.

On what do you base that statement?

My statement was based on the number of people who regularly complain that it's not quick and easy to get funds into MtGox. (Note that I said "I think", not "I guarantee".)

It's my own experience too. If I could get PayPal funds into MtGox "instantly", I would buy bitcoins there.

[sturle]

My statement was based on the number of people who regularly complain that it's not quick and easy to get funds into MtGox. (Note that I said "I think", not "I guarantee".)

It's my own experience too. If I could get PayPal funds into MtGox "instantly", I would buy bitcoins there.

There is a lot of demand for MtGox USD or LR in this community, and trade for PayPal.  This is does not help getting more funds to Mt. Gox, because the funds are already there.  It would help if Mt. Gox had more funding options.  E.g. Liqpay, which is preferred by some.

There are other ways to trade Bitcoins.  Why don't people use Bitcoin Market or #bitcoin-otc if they want to pay with other currencies?  If the price difference is high, then use it!  Get LR the slow way, buy coins at Mt. Gox and sell them for PayPal.

[mpkomara]

I'm with ribuck on this one.  If I am a guy who just read the Irish Times article on Bitcoin who wouldn't mind spending 20 dollars on some bitcoins just for the craic, I'm going to find two things:

1) you can't just buy bitcoins with your debit card
2) oh, how do i buy bitcoins then? let me read wikipedia's article on it.

[S3052]

There is not a lot to add to the midday update (but I would feel bad if I did not issue the promised update in the evening as usual. So that's why here are some fresh comments):

Trend is DOWN.

Short term target of approx 0.2 has been almost reached (0.215 today) and prices bounced off from there. This evening prices then continued to decline (currently 0.236, down -13% for the day).

We have always highlighted the importance of the longterm uptrend line, and indicated that, if it is breached, the trend changes.
Now, the break of this longterm uptrend line seems to be very significant and surprises can come on the downside now. Unless 0.30-0.35 is materially broken, expect prices to decline over the next days or rather weeks, down to larger resistance in the 0.11-0.14 area.

I will try to narrow the support ranges once the pattern becomes clearer.

[da2ce7]

The trend down was one that I was not expecting... My gut feeling still says that it won't be long till we have a strong resistance of 0.80c.     I'm buying accordingly, glad that the price is going down! 

[MoonShadow]

The trend down was one that I was not expecting... My gut feeling still says that it won't be long till we have a strong resistance of 0.80c.     I'm buying accordingly, glad that the price is going down! 

It's just the Bitcoin Cyber Monday Fire Sale, happens every year.  Didn't you get the flyer?  It'll probably come in the mail on Tuesday, you know how the postal unions work.