Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

tulips

I'm not worrying about the current pullback or sideways motion. I'm confident we're headed higher in 2018. Possibly much higher.

The medium-long term future, however, now that gets me thinking. In today's finance news there was ample coverage of both Buffett's and Munger's words. None of them mentioned tulips, but the meaning was clear. I sure imagined their stance on the matter - it's old school finance, for Satoshi's sake! And the guys are not exactly techno-savvy millennials, either. But I don't know why - Buffett's calm, grandfatherly words, spoken with a good-natured smile, unsettled me much more than scumbag Dimon's outburst.

Grandpa Warren said he's not interested in shorting, of course. Why would he? It's finite upside vs infinite downside, and he knows. However, he would like some 5 year puts at a strike price near the current spot, if they existed. What made me cringe was my own thought: "Oh how nice! I'm gonna get some now too... oops, there is no such thing."

Please tell me I'm wrong, or it doesn't matter, or whatever. Explain me why I'm wrong or it doesn't matter, or whatever it is.

Thank you.

[gentlemand]

UBTC - https://www.ub.com/ - -God mode has stolen all the coins-

This made me chuckle.

Please tell me I'm wrong, or it doesn't matter, or whatever. Explain me why I'm wrong or it doesn't matter, or whatever it is.

Thank you.

Who gives a shit? He openly admits he understands nothing about it. Same goes for most of these talking heads. They could well turn out to be right anyway or pathetically wrong. If you're sensible you extract a certain amount at a certain price anyway and the rest is all fun.

[Wekkel]

It's finite upside vs infinite downside, and he knows.

Like Nassim Taleb (and any proper thinking mathematician), I would think the downside is limited (Bitcoin can't become less than $0) and the upside is unlimited (or: potentially much higher than the downside). The perfect example of an asymmetric bet that Taleb has written extensively about.

See the concept of an asymmetric bet explained further here: http://contrarianinvestorsjournal.com/?tag=asymmetric-pay-off#

The basic idea behind the asymmetric payoff strategy is simple. First, you structure your bet in the market such that if you lose the bet, your loss is very tiny, but if you win, your gain is very massive. Next, you bet that the market will crash within a specific period of time. If you lose that bet, place another bet for the next period of time. You do this repeatedly until the day of the Black Swan event when your profit overwhelmingly overshadows your accumulated small losses.

Obviously, the disadvantage of this strategy is that it requires fortitude to absorb small losses indefinitely while waiting for a highly rewarding final vindication in the end.

Buffet, wrong since 2014: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/03/26/warren-buffett-says-bitcoin-is-a-mirage-why-marc-andreessen-thinks-hes-wrong/#2c391e827f3c

[julian071]

The vacuum of the ripple implosion is pretty amazing.   Haha, it sure is rippling the market.  You know, I almost feel bad for the people that invested in it.

Ask my boss how he feels about his Ripples 

He's already a (fiat)millionair but still believes Bitcoin is to expensive while i advised him serval times that you can buy Bitcoin for $50 and $100 etc.

Best part is that i told him i bought the dip during X-Mass....Boss: b...but did you spend $12.000? lol.

He had Bitcoin but sold all below $1000 while i strongly adviced him to HODL!

Most people here are miles ahead of the unknow, sheeps will never listen, just like talking to a wall no matter how many times you explaining it to them.

A million dollars a year will soon become the poverty-line wage. The poverty line wage today was amazing money a few decades ago.

You would literally have to make like 100 million USD in crypto to be able to retire in 40 years, and quit your job and stuff.

Not much to do with your story, but just a thought!

Not true, almost all investments should counter the inflation. And if you belive that all investments will go red in a total Armageddon financial crisis, you can just go roach and store gold and silver instead of fiat.

I will retire when and if I'll be able to cash out the equivalent of my salary until 70 years old +retirement untill 100 yo, I think it should suffice.

But for now that's only a dream, I feel a bit ashamed for that and somehow envious of all the multi-millionaires on this forum, i did never gave much value to money but I value a lot the life quality (not luxury but having time etc), and my inability of giving money their importance is the reason because I probably missed the chance of early retirement, an huge life quality improvement.

I still belive in bitcoin (the project, not the asset) and I really hope as hard as I can it will go to Pluto, but I would suggest all the people that are able to do so to cash out the equivalent of their life-wage, and enjoy financial freedom. I think that richness don't make people happy, but the freedom of using their time is a prerequisite for an happy life (you can still work when and if you want).

Hodl my hand, i hope that soon we'll all be free, and don't be too greed, because you can never satisfy greedness.

My thoughts EXACTLY.

[fluidjax]

UPDATE   (thanx to fluidjax for working exchanges and gentlemand for missing btx)
 
name - homesite - wallet - exchange

BTG  - https://bitcoingold.org - https://github.com/BTCGPU/BTCGPU - https://hitbtc.com
BCH  - https://www.bitcoincash.org/ - https://www.bitcoinabc.org/ - https://hitbtc.com
BCD  - http://btcd.io - https://github.com/eveybcd/BitcoinDiamond - https://gate.io/
SBTC - http://supersmartbitcoin.com/ - https://github.com/superbitcoin/SuperBitcoin - https://www.okex.com/ or gate.io
BTX  -  https://www.bitcore.cc/ - https://github.com/LIMXTEC/BitCore/releases - https://hitbtc.com
BTW  - http://www.btw.one - https://github.com/btwone/btwcore ? - ?
UBTC - https://www.ub.com/ - -God mode has stolen all the coins-
BTF -   http://bitcoinfaith.org - https://github.com/bitcoinfaith/bitcoinfaith - https://gate.io/

Update is about the last one BTF :
It seems that the exchange is opened and the source available, BUT note on the source says you should wait for release 0.15, master branch is not supposed to work.
Bitpie supports BTF but you can't redeem your private keys with it.  Bither doesn't support BTF yet.
update of the update: I tried the fullnode wallet : it needs libsodium too and it doesn't download the blockchain (yet)

Another couple of sites fork info

https://btcdiv.com
http://pieifo.com/pages/endefault.html

[d_eddie]

It's finite upside vs infinite downside, and he knows.

Like Nassim Taleb (and any proper thinking mathematician), I would think the downside is limited (Bitcoin can't become less than $0) and the upside is unlimited (or: potentially much higher than the downside). The perfect example of an asymmetric bet that Taleb has written extensively about.

Yes, yes. I meant downside/upside for someone shorting bitcoin.

Buffet, wrong since 2014: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/03/26/warren-buffett-says-bitcoin-is-a-mirage-why-marc-andreessen-thinks-hes-wrong/#2c391e827f3c

Andreessen did help a little. Thanks, Wekkel! :-)

[bitserve]

Meanwhile, the swings continue. They seem narrower. Nearly 14.5k right now (gdax).
Bob, do you have that country song ready yet? Festival planning is in Phase 2.

Chatted with my partner this morning. Lowering my exit targets.  Don't want to say any more than that for fear of jinxing things. I still don't feel the time is right yet, but "very soon".

He brought up the same point as IcyGreen - "Didn't you say you were going to dump $1M @ $10k USD/BTC ?"

I am filled with shame for allowing my greed to get the better of me. It's... emasculating... being scolded by a power-bottom, damnit.

Either way, will still end up HODLing a very respectable sum of BTC when all is said-and-done.

The same "attitude" that made you hodl up to $10000+ is the one that made harder for you to sell at any "non-optimal" price.  If you were not like that you would have cashed up way way more earlier. Your greed got the best out of you to get up to here... in fact, we are considerably higher than those $10k! So congrats, and just fucking cash out a little more so you can keep riding this wave without remorses with the rest of your (huge) stash.

[Gab0]

Buffet, wrong since 2014: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/03/26/warren-buffett-says-bitcoin-is-a-mirage-why-marc-andreessen-thinks-hes-wrong/#2c391e827f3c

Thanks for that article.

Andreessen is clear about what gives the value to bitcoin:

"So then, the intrinsic value of a BTC is emergent from the functional value of the ledger as a way to exchange value (or, more accurately, emergent from the collective forecast of the future volume and velocity of value that will pass through the ledger). "

[Toxic2040]

So congrats, and just fucking cash out a little more so you can keep riding this wave without remorses with the rest of your (huge) stash.

Ok. Extracted just north of $1M @ $14,500 USD/BTC.

Once the wire hits my account, I'll load up for round 2.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm looking at this one. The first diagonal line on top.

How does that even make sense??... WTF?? How big of a joker are you? You seem to have lost a lot of coins.

I did TODL to HODL!!!

I did TODL YOUDL to HODL your NUDL   - Oh yeah, Tera doesn't have a noodle to hodl...    but still... should hodl something including little friends, aka bitcoins.

[JayJuanGee]

...I think that if your goal was to make an interim cashing out of BTC around the value of 60 BTC at $17k, then you could have started cashing out in 10BTC increments and met the same result with an incrementalism something like this:  1)10 BTC at $14,500, 10 BTC at $15,500, 10 BTC at $16,500, 10 BTC at $17,500, 10 BTC at $18,500, and 10 BTC at $19,500...

Hindsight is a real bitch, huh ?  

EDIT: Seeing BTC sink below $14k breaks my heart. I'm HODLing, and mentally preparing myself to work another quarter, aiming to exit the workforce in mid-late Q2. At least taking a wait-and-see approach and see how the market is like end of March. I waited too long and got greedy. Now I'm all despondent and stuff. Sheeit.

I am not talking about hindsight.  I am talking about now sight.

I am NOT  proposing a personalized system that employs chunkle-ism, but instead one that employs incrementalism from the here and now.

[JayJuanGee]

btc price 10 Jan 17 $883
today $14120  I can live with that

I only look at the yearly chart too.

Yep, it really depends on how much you initially invested into it. I may not get superrich with it, but it´s a blast. Even if it goes down by half, or so.
People forget the timeline here. My bank would have given me one or two percent for my money, per fcking year !
No risk, no fun.

You enter the category of "superrich" at 30 million USD. I suspect a lot of the old bitcoiners in this thread are getting fairly close soon.

You could be correct for once, fatty patty.

However, there could be a bit of a definitional argument here too regarding exactly where the threshold for "super" rich is.

Even with a $10 million value in stash, you have the ability to pretty much count on about a $30k per month passive income - which surely seems decently in the super rich category because $30k per month would be coming from passive income.  That seems pretty decent to me, so if we  3x that, then we have nearly $100k per month passive income, which surely is better, but I am not sure if such levels of passivity is necessary to be considered "super" rich?

But I do see the argument, too, that even though $10million is very comfortably in the rich category, it does not quite get to the "super" rich arena.

Maybe in the end, I am coming around to agreeing with you, fatty patty?

[HairyMaclairy]

Well done Bob.  Good bit of work that. 

[Rosewater Foundation]

Well done Bob.  Good bit of work that. 

Gay cowboy finally pulls trigger. It's harder than it seems.

[lightfoot]

And now we go to 30k. Thanks cowboy!

[Syke]

Gay cowboy finally pulls trigger. It's harder than it seems.

I feel like there's a joke in there somewhere...

[txtravwill]

So do we expect any action on/around Jan 26th when the first January futures contracts expire?  Opinion?

[FractalUniverse]

So do we expect any action on/around Jan 26th when the first January futures contracts expire?  Opinion?

I expect more action after finex and other big exchanges' registrations open again

[Rosewater Foundation]

chunkle-ism

Gay cowboy finally pulls trigger. It's harder than it seems.

I feel like there's a joke in there somewhere...

Goonies never say die.

[vit05]

  My only doubt about the income Bitcoin run to ATH is that if the total market cap will hit 1 trillion before or after Bitcoin hit 500 billion. This will tell a lot about the future of alts and if they can survive in the long term.