Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mindrust]

This is what I'm seeing on BTC dominance graph:

https://i.imgur.com/v08gssG.png

Seriously, IF this breaks down, go get some alts to further increase your BTC stash.

This, looks scary af. Looks like there is only one more jump left in it (to %75) and then it is a downside disaster.

[1714783540]

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[1714783540]

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[Biodom]

...
The consolidation might take a bit longer ...

Interesting find, mindrust. But ATH before halving is impossible, isn't it? So I would extend everything on the time axis.

Nice catch, that's why I said, it would take a bit longer.

That's the only concern I have here.

filbfilb (some TA god) on the other hand also said this bull run might develop earlier than we all guessed so who knows.

*He said it, because we exactly know what happens after the halving, so,,, many of us will start accumulating a lot earlier than the halving date (if already haven't started),,, means, it might rocket a lot earlier. We weren't so sure about this in 2017. (I wasn't)

Yeah, sooner/later isn't as relevant as the peak and subsequent drop. If you're into EW jazz that wave could end up being III of a 5 wave run-up culminating with a 300k+/- peak around end of 2021.

I have a slightly different long term scenario.
BTC rises to 55-60K during this bull, perhaps 350K in the next, but then succumbs to a long term bear market.
Maybe it would coincide with economic decline, maybe not, but these neat halving-induced bumps would stop (or be diminished) at some point. The timing of bear market would depend on when we will reach the mid term peak, which would be around 300-400K in the best case scenario, IMHO.

[mindrust]

We all expect and know, there will be a time in the future, Bitcoin will become just like Gold.

Lifeless, non-volatile, boring.

As long as we do these %20 daily/weekly swings, it means we still haven't gotten there.

[jbreher]

PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto,

While true, if you enter into contract with PR gov under Act 20 or 22, there are huge tax advantages - crypto or not.

[mindrust]

Check this out:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/1QSGColK-My-Secret-Chart-For-When-To-To-Buy-Bitcoin-In-A-Bullish-Trend/

Hot on tradingview lately.

[SuperTA]

Check this out:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/1QSGColK-My-Secret-Chart-For-When-To-To-Buy-Bitcoin-In-A-Bullish-Trend/

Hot on tradingview lately.

I talked about it a few days ago in this thread. I made a chart, his "secret",  9 days before him. But now it probably won't work cuz too many people will trade the same thing.

[mindrust]

Check this out:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/1QSGColK-My-Secret-Chart-For-When-To-To-Buy-Bitcoin-In-A-Bullish-Trend/

Hot on tradingview lately.

I talked about it a few days ago in this thread. I made a chart, his "secret",  9 days before him. But now it probably won't work cuz too many people will trade the same thing.

I must have missed it :/

[SuperTA]

Well nobody seemed to care cuz no one commented anything about it. But it doesn't matter cuz probably won't work anyway.

[SuperTA]

Here you go, chart date August 12

[Lambie Slayer]

My future ex Tulsi is out of the upcoming debate so Yang is the next best (ultra slim) hope for a true Crypto friendly candidate. Any tax crazy lefty gets nominated and Im team Trump. Mayor Pete I would predict is unlikely to make a major tax hike so he wouldnt be to bad for a dem nominee. Luckily after watching most of Grandpa Joe's interviews and debates I can confidently say that he has early dementia setting in fast and his brain would turn to mush in a grueling election.

More basement dwelling induced derp.

Buy Bitcoin and lose your virginity Roach, its about time ya know.

[Lambie Slayer]

Yeah no big problem, I can pickup a new language and build a new life for myself in just a week or two. Thanks buddy, what was I thinking

That’s pussyfoot talk.  If you aren’t agile, you are a sitting duck.  

Meh to me it would be pussyfooting to leave your home and people behind bc some gibbering dementia patient is trying to steal your money. I understand the agile sentiment, and I could move to another country with ease, but I dont typically look to run from problems anyway. Also some of the countries on that list look to be a few regulatory clarifications away from taxing crypto, PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto, and Liberland is a joke.

Hopefully Republicans maintain control of at least one branch and this doubling of cap gains never happens. If it does happen I would sell all coins and realize profits, pay taxes, then buy most of the coins back at a new cost basis before the law went into effect. This would alleviate a lot of the problem, then Id have to consider my options.

I would agree with your position if it was as you described. In reality however, that gibbering dementia patient is highly calculated and is stealing your money, rather than just trying to.

Lol, well I would agree with you here accept he is not President yet, so the trying means he is trying to win the election so he can facilitate said stealing.

[Lambie Slayer]

PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto,

While true, if you enter into contract with PR gov under Act 20 or 22, there are huge tax advantages - crypto or not.

Agreed. I spent a few weeks living in San Juan deciding if it would be worth it living there half the year to get the tax savings. I eventually decided against it, but its a tempting proposition.

[Lambie Slayer]

3. The way they truly get you is by taxing gains, but allowing only $3000 per year in losses. This way, you could be in a situation where you pay large gains one year, but are allowed only limited recourse (3K) when you have a large loss. I find this very unfair.

Yes, but any losses that exceed $3K you can roll over YoY.

True, but it is still a limitation as there is no such limit on gains.
It is what it is.

Gents, to provide a little clarity here, the 3k max is for deductions against regular income. So if you have a salary or wages then yes you can only roll over 3k worth of losses as deductions each year and this can be done till you die or run out of losses. But..... for capital gains you can deduct all your capital losses from prior years with no limit whatsoever. The way they fuck you is you could gain a million one year, pay taxes on it then lose a million the first day of the next year and get no refund for the taxes you paid the year prior. You would either have to make another million in capital gains to use those losses as a deduction or you would have to live 333 more years making a salary and writing off 3k each year. The tax man is a real sob. A more fair form of theft would allow you to get a refund for past taxes paid.

[Biodom]

PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto,

While true, if you enter into contract with PR gov under Act 20 or 22, there are huge tax advantages - crypto or not.

Agreed. I spent a few weeks living in San Juan deciding if it would be worth it living there half the year to get the tax savings. I eventually decided against it, but its a tempting proposition.

it would be twice as tempting if CGT would go to 39.6%.
However, I am tempted to not sell at all and leave the tax question to my putative descendants.

Oh, btw, the Secure act in US (if Senate takes it) would mean that your kids and/or grandkinds would have to spend your unspent 401K and IRA in just 10 years. Their possible reaction:"Weeeee...free money!"

[gembitz]

PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto,

While true, if you enter into contract with PR gov under Act 20 or 22, there are huge tax advantages - crypto or not.

Agreed. I spent a few weeks living in San Juan deciding if it would be worth it living there half the year to get the tax savings. I eventually decided against it, but its a tempting proposition.

moving to theymos floating island when? lel

[El duderino_]

Had a Nice dinner with gin and wine, a town party after, probably everyone can imagine my b00z status right now.....

Of to bed for early HODLsleep and skip the pee-pic

Nite WO-bro’s!!!!!!!! Love you HODLers!!!!!

[heslo]

Had a Nice dinner with gin and wine, a town party after, probably everyone can imagine my b00z status right now.....

Of to bed for early HODLsleep and skip the pee-pic

Nite WO-bro’s!!!!!!!! Love you HODLers!!!!!

Night mate, 10400 when you wake

[El duderino_]

 ^^
Five digital fight
Drunk not knowing what I write
But still, NO homo .....

[JayJuanGee]

Things are becoming more and more chaotic.
My preference would be for flat equities and for bitcoin to appreciate against this background.
It does not look this way at the moment.
Dow is actually below its Jan 22, 2018 value, some bull market we have. Oh, well.

I am still of the opinion that bitcoin needs at least a flat market to grow.
If stocks would get seriously smashed, btc would decline as well, at least initially.

Carney's libra-like ideas are meaningless without multiple major countries backing it and I don't see anyone even acknowledging it (so far).

You are surely coming off as a weak hand, Biodom.... like you are easily scared into doing something crazy, like selling on the way down (or worse at the bottom)...     

Same thing with me 1 year beforehand time has passed When the money is low and there are many problems around(Example: political problem, family problem, official problem etc.) the only thought is how to get profitable.

 Don't worry @Biodom expectation one day we are glad more than 2018 price.

To me, that seems like a sign of having had over invested into BTC.

Of course, we have historically had outrageously bullish periods in bitcoin, and we currently seem to be in the midst of an outrageously bullish period  - yeah, it might not work out - meaning that the price might go down instead of up, but still.. fuck, we had about 3.5x price increase in less than 3 months, which came on the heels of a bout a year long bear market and consolidation in the $3ks that has now converted into consolidation that has been largely in the $9k to $12ks. 

I cannot see hardly any reason to be complaining about that, even if our potential upcoming bullrun gets delayed for a couple of years, we still are in a great position, including the fact that it seems that shitcoins are getting purged on the way up rather than on the way down.  Many of us were partly disheartened in bitcoin's situation because we kind of figured that there was going to be a continued dragging down of bitcoin because of the purging of the excessive value of shitcoins, but we have been able to experience an alternative scenario to have a purging of shitcoins while bitcoin is having some upwards price performance.

UP or down from here, I don't have many clues, but still seems to me that buying on the way down would be a better strategy than doing something irrational.  We are already bouncing in a bit more than a 30% price correction when we are in the $10k area that had gone down to a bit over 35% correction in the $9k area, so there is no given scenario that we have to have more down before up.. even though at the same time, it does seem to be that we remain in a bull market, therefore, up remains more likely than down, even if the fear index might be showing a decent amount of fear, currently.

[JayJuanGee]

Hodlllllllllllllll / StrongHats

I need something a little more...substantial to HODL on to.

Don't be dissing spinners.

There is a kind of saying amongst some peeps that if you get them skinny, they are always gonna get BIGGER.