Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Hopefully this is not too complex of an issue for you to attempt to address, which is largely how do you stay profitable during exponential BTC up periods, or do you just factor in that there might be short periods, such as the one between April 1 and June 27 that your shorting attempts are NOT profitable?

Giving you an exhaustive answer is difficult, especially since I have no historical log of my trading moves - only of the transfers from play stash to cold storage when I accumulate enough profit. I don't remember what I was doing in the time frame you mention. What I remember is that I only started the two legged setups after seeing the mammoths, that is, when I felt the bear paws getting too close for comfort. It was the start of the latest bear market.

In general, I won't open a short out of the blue. Well, I did the first couple of times, during the mammoth era, while I was looking for a workable approach. However, I did have some trading experience already, so I was carefully humble - and probably lucky.  There was no loss. Nowadays when I hold a short position, it always has an opposing long, although sizes can and often do differ.

During an exponential up, I aim at not having any short open. So I set stops - even redundant ones, because fuckery exists. Besides, there are longish periods of rest without a single trade. On the other hand, if I spot a solid uptrend, I open a long position and leave it there or play a simple ladder similar to what you do. It's when it gets choppy, she goes down and my long hurts that I start thinking about a short-lived short. Or alternatively I open both positions almost at the same time, trying to start with the short higher than the long.

At the moment my long is still unhappy, but the short is green. Barely: there's still no room for a stop that leaves me in profit. So I'll let things stay as they are until a clear direction emerges. My SOMA expectation is a bloody weekend with slow, soft recovery on Monday. If things get brutal, my short will pay me a few more pennies. If she skyrockets, I'll lose some on the short (stops in place already), but the long leg will fly unencumbered. It has no stops, but if we get close to 5k I'll reconsider and taper it down before it liquidates (under 4k). In this gloomy scenario, the short will hopefully save my ass.

Summing up, I don't have an exact system. I oscillate between ladder up (basically what you do, only with margin), a double ladder (one up, one down) in times of calm range swings, and furious scalping/rebuilding on the short in times of trouble, when I have a suffering long that needs more support. Which is the current situation. The idea is to have a decently sized short position ready to cash out before the long goes belly up. It needn't necessarily have to make up for the whole loss, as long as it avoids liquidation. If (when!) the price goes back up, I'll regain most of the losses, or gain even more depending on the price trajectory and on my moves - such as possibly increasing my long after I feel the bottom is in, as long as the position remains small compared to the stash size.

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[Biodom]

This is from their FAQ:

"When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency."

If you never split the new coins from the base chain, there is no tx recorded on the distributed ledger. And therefore, by definition, those coins have not been received.

Brilliant.

However, the way they did it you would have income first (after performing the splitting txn) and then cap gains on the price difference when sell/exchange.

[JayJuanGee]

Has anyone else noticed the severe drop in liquidity on coinbase pro for BTC/USD?? Order book averaged about $50 million+ in buys all the way down to $2200 up until yesterday. Within the last 24 hours it dropped from $50 million down to barely over $10 million. What happened here?

You posted the same thing yesterday. Order books are irrelevant - whales use APIs.  

Didn't Coinbase pro have a recent increase in their trading fees too? That could possibly have been a partial explanation, too, no?

[Biodom]

Has anyone else noticed the severe drop in liquidity on coinbase pro for BTC/USD?? Order book averaged about $50 million+ in buys all the way down to $2200 up until yesterday. Within the last 24 hours it dropped from $50 million down to barely over $10 million. What happened here?

You posted the same thing yesterday. Order books are irrelevant - whales use APIs.  

Didn't Coinbase pro have a recent increase in their trading fees too? That could possibly have been a partial explanation, too, no?

yes, that's what happens when you increased fees threefold while competitors did not.
https://youtu.be/p79lKeQMBPc?t=92

[jbreher]

Vays is bitcoin's Robert Prechter.

Person 2: "WhoTF is Robert Prechter?"

Person 1: "Exactly."

[jbreher]

Has anyone else noticed the severe drop in liquidity on coinbase pro for BTC/USD?? Order book averaged about $50 million+ in buys all the way down to $2200 up until yesterday. Within the last 24 hours it dropped from $50 million down to barely over $10 million. What happened here?

Coinbase revamped its fee structure. Again.

In the process, it nuked all standing orders made under the old fee structure.

PITA to set up all the ladders again, but whaddayagonnado?

[jbreher]

You forgot the bit where the big blockers try to fool newbies into thinking Bcash lol and BSV are Bitcoin.

Quite a different proposition than trying to fool newbies into thinking BCH or BSV are BTC. But nobody is doing that. That would be dishonest.

[jbreher]

This is from their FAQ:

"When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency."

If you never split the new coins from the base chain, there is no tx recorded on the distributed ledger. And therefore, by definition, those coins have not been received.

Brilliant.

However, the way they did it you would have income first (after performing the splitting txn) and then cap gains on the price difference when sell/exchange.

Yes. But if you did not partake of Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond, Bitcoin Tin, Bitcoin Zinc ... et al when they were birthed, then by their definition, you did not receive those forks, and therefore have not incurred the corresponding potential taxable event. Which is all we really feel dejected about, right? I mean, nobody really expects to get something for nothing, do they?

IANAL.

[JayJuanGee]

Hopefully this is not too complex of an issue for you to attempt to address, which is largely how do you stay profitable during exponential BTC up periods, or do you just factor in that there might be short periods, such as the one between April 1 and June 27 that your shorting attempts are NOT profitable?

Giving you an exhaustive answer is difficult, especially since I have no historical log of my trading moves - only of the transfers from play stash to cold storage when I accumulate enough profit. I don't remember what I was doing in the time frame you mention. What I remember is that I only started the two legged setups after seeing the mammoths, that is, when I felt the bear paws getting too close for comfort. It was the start of the latest bear market.

In general, I won't open a short out of the blue. Well, I did the first couple of times, during the mammoth era, while I was looking for a workable approach. However, I did have some trading experience already, so I was carefully humble - and probably lucky.  There was no loss. Nowadays when I hold a short position, it always has an opposing long, although sizes can and often do differ.

During an exponential up, I aim at not having any short open. So I set stops - even redundant ones, because fuckery exists. Besides, there are longish periods of rest without a single trade. On the other hand, if I spot a solid uptrend, I open a long position and leave it there or play a simple ladder similar to what you do. It's when it gets choppy, she goes down and my long hurts that I start thinking about a short-lived short. Or alternatively I open both positions almost at the same time, trying to start with the short higher than the long.

At the moment my long is still unhappy, but the short is green. Barely: there's still no room for a stop that leaves me in profit. So I'll let things stay as they are until a clear direction emerges. My SOMA expectation is a bloody weekend with slow, soft recovery on Monday. If things get brutal, my short will pay me a few more pennies. If she skyrockets, I'll lose some on the short (stops in place already), but the long leg will fly unencumbered. It has no stops, but if we get close to 5k I'll reconsider and taper it down before it liquidates (under 4k). In this gloomy scenario, the short will hopefully save my ass.

Summing up, I don't have an exact system. I oscillate between ladder up (basically what you do, only with margin), a double ladder (one up, one down) in times of calm range swings, and furious scalping/rebuilding on the short in times of trouble, when I have a suffering long that needs more support. Which is the current situation. The idea is to have a decently sized short position ready to cash out before the long goes belly up. It needn't necessarily have to make up for the whole loss, as long as it avoids liquidation. If (when!) the price goes back up, I'll regain most of the losses, or gain even more depending on the price trajectory and on my moves - such as possibly increasing my long after I feel the bottom is in, as long as the position remains small compared to the stash size.

I am not asserting that you are NOT telling the truth, but it does seem a bit strange for any of us BTC HODLers to NOT attribute a decent amount of significance to the surprising dynamics of the April 1 to June 27 period.

In my thinking, it was an amazing price performance for BTC.  Sure there have been periods like that in the past, but jeez with bitcoin, there never seems to be an end to surprises like the period of April 1 to June 27.

You know I had been thinking that bitcoin's doubling in late 2015 was quite amazing, and it took place from about October 15 to November 5, but the rise was so goddamned gradual until the decisive break above $320 that brought BTC's prices up to $504 from November 1 to November 4.

But the April 1 to June 27 price rise had several of those upspurts, that caused even more outrageousness after BTC prices broke above $9,500 on June 20 and then pretty much straight up to $13,880.

So in terms of HODLers, we had to be grateful for our various longs and even a bit overly incredulous, but in terms of entertaining shorts, maybe you just became indecisive?  I mean there were all kinds of folks spouting out that the correction had to come, the correction had to come, blah blah blah, but we continued to see shorters getting reckt over and over and over again.  It was very pleasure-able to witness bitcoin in such a grand punishment mode and the nocoiners, bitcoin naysayers and the left out altcoin pumpeners getting left behind (or otherwise reckt).   So, yeah, maybe you ended up NOT losing as much as other shorters during that period, but even mostly HODLers like me were incredulous that over and over and over, BTC was failing and refusing to embark upon any meaningful price correction of more than 10% - and even those were levels of corrections were relatively short-lived during that period... glory days, glory days, and just seems that it would have also been significant for anyone attempting to trade, and especially ative in the practice of attempting to employ shorts.

[LUCKMCFLY]

This is something similar to a tipping point, any momentum can take us to higher levels, just break the $ 8.6k barrier.

This possible liquidity zone is being formed and has been there for some time.

[d_eddie]

I am not asserting that you are NOT telling the truth, but it does seem a bit strange for any of us BTC HODLers to NOT attribute a decent amount of significance to the surprising dynamics of the April 1 to June 27 period.

I was trading in that period, but only long positions. Unfortunately I don't have trace of the details. As I said earlier, my shorts only began with the latest bear market in 2018. Originally it was meant as a hedge.

You know I had been thinking that bitcoin's doubling in late 2015 was quite amazing, and it took place from about October 15 to November 5, but the rise was so goddamned gradual until the decisive break above $320 that brought BTC's prices up to $504 from November 1 to November 4.

Before 2016 I wasn't trading at all.

[jojo69]

Has anyone else noticed the severe drop in liquidity on coinbase pro for BTC/USD?? Order book averaged about $50 million+ in buys all the way down to $2200 up until yesterday. Within the last 24 hours it dropped from $50 million down to barely over $10 million. What happened here?

Coinbase revamped its fee structure. Again.

In the process, it nuked all standing orders made under the old fee structure.

PITA to set up all the ladders again, but whaddayagonnado?

bittrex, that's what I'm gonnado

[JayJuanGee]

I am not asserting that you are NOT telling the truth, but it does seem a bit strange for any of us BTC HODLers to NOT attribute a decent amount of significance to the surprising dynamics of the April 1 to June 27 period.

I was trading in that period, but only long positions. Unfortunately I don't have trace of the details. As I said earlier, my shorts only began with the latest bear market in 2018. Originally it was meant as a hedge.

You know I had been thinking that bitcoin's doubling in late 2015 was quite amazing, and it took place from about October 15 to November 5, but the rise was so goddamned gradual until the decisive break above $320 that brought BTC's prices up to $504 from November 1 to November 4.

Before 2016 I wasn't trading at all.

I know that you are probably starting to suspect that I am either stalking you or becoming a pest, but the relevant period for this particular line of "interrogations" is April 1, 2019 to June 27, 2019.. our most recent exponential BTC price run up.. and clearly you had been in the BTC shorting practice already, after having had gotten a decent amount of experience under your belt during our somewhat deep and painful bearish period of 2018.  

And, also this 2019 BTC price run up would have been a BIG one to actually challenge any ongoing BTC shorting strategy.  That is if you would have kept your BTC shorting strategy as ongoing and it seems like you are saying that you weren't, even though there would not have seemed to have been any reason (except in retrospect) to actually NOT expect a significant and meaningful correction of 30% or more.. which is quite common in BTClandia.. but did not really seem to happen during this 2019 BTC price run up.

I was just using those older dates of late 2015 as a relative comparison of the magnanimity of this particular 3.5x BTC price rise (with hardly any significant price corrections of 10% or more within that decently extended 3 month period).

[HairyMaclairy]

You forgot the bit where the big blockers try to fool newbies into thinking Bcash lol and BSV are Bitcoin.

Quite a different proposition than trying to fool newbies into thinking BCH or BSV are BTC. But nobody is doing that. That would be dishonest.

How about addressing the substance of my post which you have selectively cut off?

Your entire value proposition is based on fraud.  

One of these logos is a BSV logo.  One of these logos is a Bitcoin logo.  I can’t tell the difference so I can’t see how a newbie could.  This is plainly fraudulent passing off.  

It is more than dishonest. It is fraudulent.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

How about addressing the rest of my post which you have selectively cut off?

By now, we all ready have a good idea how the jbreher rolls, and that is to divert, distract and redirect.  He's not even attempting to engage in meaningful discussions. He just wants to spout out his various bcash / BIGBLOCKENER talking points on a regular and ongoing basis... out of pie in the sky speculations that one or more of those fraud coins are going to somehow meaningfully challenge bitcoin.. perhaps he is betting on the fluke, to the extent that he really believes his own bullshit.. and mostly he seems to smart to actually believe that crap... which only leaves a reasonable conclusion that he is merely trolling.... and he denies shilling, but we have no real way of verifying that beyond the contradictory nature of his ongoing persistence in posting crapology that no reasonably smart person (or even a dumb person) should actually believe.

[heslo]

Trezor (security by open-source) or Ledger (security by obscurity)?

which do you prefer?

 

trezor.. security via open source. had a trezor since 2016

i have several trezor model ones (one will do u2f), a trezor t and a ledger. the trezor seems easier and more intuitive than the ledger. and it seems i always have issues with the ledger, minor ones but annoying.

Yep had a Trezor for a long time also and wouldn't trust anything else myself. Have a Nano S and a Ledger Blue (which I regret) The Ledger stuff is decent but Trezor is definitely ahead in my books, both in UX and just all round support/solidness.

The guys behind Trezor are OG Bitcoiners and have proved their place in the ecosystem IMO

[HairyMaclairy]

I want him to answer why almost identical logos are not misleading. I am almost looking forward to his dancing, weaving, obfuscating bullshit.  

[JayJuanGee]

Trezor (security by open-source) or Ledger (security by obscurity)?

which do you prefer?

 

trezor.. security via open source. had a trezor since 2016

i have several trezor model ones (one will do u2f), a trezor t and a ledger. the trezor seems easier and more intuitive than the ledger. and it seems i always have issues with the ledger, minor ones but annoying.

Yep had a Trezor for a long time also and wouldn't trust anything else myself. Have a Nano S and a Ledger Blue (which I regret) The Ledger stuff is decent but Trezor is definitely ahead in my books, both in UX and just all round support/solidness.

The guys behind Trezor are OG Bitcoiners and have proved their place in the ecosystem IMO

Open source does seem to be the better route, too, in terms of security and allowing all kinds of technically smart folks to be able to review and criticize their product.

[nutildah]

You ignored my entire defense

What defense?

If you want to counter something, counter the reasoning below:

I'd be happy to, if you had something to respond to other than 'a couple of the people who believe this is the route forward have engaged in behavior I consider unsavory'. But you don't. There is nothing to respond to.

Again: Defend your statement. Or retract it. Any other path forward for you would be dishonorable.

You forgot the bit where the big blockers try to fool newbies into thinking Bcash lol and BSV are Bitcoin.

Your entire value proposition is based on fraud.  

One of these logos is a BSV logo.  One of these logos is a Bitcoin logo.  I can’t tell the difference so I can’t see how a newbie could.  This is plainly fraudulent passing off.  

Thanks Hairy. He insists on making it an argument about whether or not a piece of software has the ability to act immorally on its own, which is of course, never what the argument was about.

breher: just because you ignore a defense doesn't mean its not a defense. I'm tired of playing these word games with you. Look at the scoreboard: your favorite altcoins are dying slow but measurable deaths because they were built on the fraudulent premise that they are the real bitcoin. Had they not tried so hard to blatantly piggyback off bitcoin's good name, perhaps they would both be doing better than they currently are. They would almost certainly be better respected by the general community.

[JayJuanGee]

I want him to answer why almost identical logos are not misleading. I am almost looking forward to his dancing, weaving, obfuscating bullshit.  

good luck trying to get a grip on the slimy / wiggly fish.