Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[P_Shep]

 Man.  I waited nearly 7 months to get my BFL miners.  When I did, the taxes my government charged were more than the value of the Bitcoin I could mine with them even if I didn't include the cost of electricity.  To add insult to injury, my wife called me at work the first night I was running them to tell me of a strange smell coming from the room.  I told her to unplug them and in the morning when I got home, I saw that one of the power supplies had melted - those were SHIT (the power supplies)!  I connected some better PSUs and ran them for a while to heat my feet under my computer desk.
 I've always wished I had simply spent that money on coins rather than miners - it would have bought ~ 30 Bitcoins.  

Yeah, one or two of the supplied PSU's blew up on me on the short time I used them, but I always planned on wiring up a high efficiency PC PSU.
Think I sold them on ebay!

The FPGA ones (first set) were a bit late. The ASIC ones were VERY late, but still made good profit on them.

[1715210498]

1715210498

[JayJuanGee]

Let's say you come up with $1million as nice round number. Again, this could as low as $500K in some countries and just for a very modest lifestyle up to $5 million for US, with many years to live, and with a nice lifestyle.

Daym you need $5m to live in the US?

Wellllll...

The traditional financial advisor .. um ... advice is to plan on withdrawing 4% annually.

So 4% of $5M is $200K. Is that enough? Before taxes? It's an individual target.

Note that the 4% assumes normal retirement age and life expectancy. If retiring early or planning on living to 268 years of age, you might wanna reduce the percentage for calculation purposes.

I might have different assumptions about the traditional 4%, which I thought was meant to be a perpetually sustainable withdrawal rate because it is presumed that you are going to be able to average at least 4% per year returns (some years higher and some years lower).  So, 4% should even work for someone who lives to  268 years old.

Some tricky parts are 1) withdrawing beyond 4% per year (and dipping into principle, and then if you end up living longer after you have depleted the principle).. 2)  NOT being able to sustain at least 4% on average returns on your investments, and if you believe that is actually happening to your investment, then you need to reduce your withdrawal rate.. most investment advisors believe 4% to be safe because they believe that they can achieve at least that level of returns in a sustainable way or 3) you have miscalculated how large of a principle that you need.. and the 4% returns is not enough (that is in the $5million $200k per annum is not enough)...

Part of the reason that you would want to error in the high side of obtaining a higher principle before your retire (or pull the fuck you lever) is to attempt to be able to account for the various unknowns, including cost of living increases that might happen or prolonged downturn in the economy that would end up reducing your returns and things like that... Of course, if you expect that you are going to die earlier than you can dip in to your principle and even completely liquidate your principle, but then yeah, you could become kind of fucked if you continue to live.. 

[dragonvslinux]

We are still inside of the ascending triangle. If bitcoin price can stay inside of this triangle, we can expect a good kump after 9600 USD. Lets wait and see if this bottom wall is going to work or not.

Thanks for sharing, I've been looking at the new bullish channel developing that could result in a bull flag with a relatively high target, but hadn't seen the bearish rising wedge pattern on the same chart   A breakdown from current levels could be more bearish than I had initially considered, especially now we are forming a bear flag on the 1hr with a target of aound $8200.

[JayJuanGee]

BTC is not measurably better than bitcoin protocol 1.0 in any discernible dimension.

Hmm, off course you don't really believe that do you. Because you have large holdings in both Bitcoin and BCH.

You refuse to put your money where your mouth is.

Why should he not diversify or hedge, whatever he believes.

This argument, dump everything else to prove anything is silly.

Of course, BSV is so goddamned stupid, you gotta hedge if you believe or invest in that.  Similar with a lot of the other pie in the sky shitcoins. When you believe some or part of the shitcoin talking-point nonsense about being better than BTC and being BTC 2.0 and so much of the phoney baloney, then yeah, you better be diversifying into bitcoin because you are surely banking on dumb, if you are investing into shitcoins.

Like my signature says, if you invest into bitcoin, you really do not need to diversify into all of that crap (diversifying your overall portfolio outside of bitcoin/crypto into other industries/sectors is a different subject than merely referring to diversifying within crypto), but the same lack of diversification philosophy would be dumb to follow if you were to invest into any of the shitcoins, whether BSV or any of the others.. you better be diversifying otherwise you are likely to get totally reckt.. just a matter of when, not whether.

[mindrust]

LoL what value does bsv exactly offer any different than the other shitcoins? Hedging into BSV makes no sense. Craig is a lunatic and a scammer and BSV is a shitcoin just like bcash.

In the short term they will have their ups and downs and a billionare like Ayre can keep it up for many years but it will never, ever replace bitcoin. Not even if it somehow able to get a higher market cap than btc. (same applies to bcash as well)

[fillippone]

Lol of the day:

Ridiculous: Peter Schiff Lost Access To His Bitcoin Holdings

The popular economist and well-known nocoiner, Peter Schiff, has said that he’s lost all of his bitcoins because of a forgotten software. He took his rant to Twitter, outlining that the lost bitcoin has no market value, on top of having no intrinsic value as well.

From Twitter:

I just lost all the #Bitcoin I have ever owned. My wallet got corrupted somehow and my password is no longer valid. So now not only is my Bitcoin intrinsically worthless; it has no market value either. I knew owning Bitcoin was a bad idea, I just never realized it was this bad!

https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1218911797626847234?s=21

I had a boating accident, someone else had a kebab incident... he had a software accident!

[JayJuanGee]

My second bullet further makes the point by saying that you believe it's irrelevant if faketoshi is Satoshi (but BSvers for some reason still need to follow his truest implementation) 

It is irrelevant whether or not CSW is Satoshi precisely because the changes BSV is undergoing are bringing it closer to Satoshi's original protocol. We don't need Craig to dictate the direction because the whitepaper exists and because bitcoind 0.1 exists. We can read.

There is only one reason why the changes BSV is undergoing are bringing it closer to Satoshi's "original protocol". CSW will pay Kleiman Estate in BSV claiming these are kind of bitcoins he and Dave Kleiman mined using Satoshi's original protocol.

I agree that is likely the plan of CSW, and it would be quite lovely to see him locked up for that level of fraud (attempted fraud...).;.maybe his lawyers will get disbarred too, if they were to attempt to play such nonsense on the court system?  We will see if he does it, but I do agree that it is a very probable planned way forward for him.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Lol of the day:

Ridiculous: Peter Schiff Lost Access To His Bitcoin Holdings

The popular economist and well-known nocoiner, Peter Schiff, has said that he’s lost all of his bitcoins because of a forgotten software. He took his rant to Twitter, outlining that the lost bitcoin has no market value, on top of having no intrinsic value as well.

From Twitter:

I just lost all the #Bitcoin I have ever owned. My wallet got corrupted somehow and my password is no longer valid. So now not only is my Bitcoin intrinsically worthless; it has no market value either. I knew owning Bitcoin was a bad idea, I just never realized it was this bad!

https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1218911797626847234?s=21

I had a boating accident, someone else had a kebab incident... he had a software accident!

Dat guy Peter Schiff planning in advance for paying no taxes in 2021/22 when he sells

[eddie13]

Lol of the day:

Ridiculous: Peter Schiff Lost Access To His Bitcoin Holdings

Serves that douchebag fiat paper shill right..

[Raja_MBZ]

Meanwhile, in Sudan:



https://twitter.com/AleZ2016/status/1218869472464965633

[LUCKMCFLY]

Bitcoin at $10k would not be bad at all.

As long as $8400 holds there is nothing to worry about.

$10K still in play.

$BTC

Via Twitter: https://twitter.com/galaxyBTC/status/1218854975968772096

This rally marked a significant extension of the upwards momentum that the cryptocurrency incurred earlier this month when it began rallying from lows of $6,800.

Source: https://cryptonewmedia.press/2020/01/19/bitcoin-highly-bullish-despite-selloff-heres-what-could-propel-it-to-10000/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Biodom]

Lol of the day:

Ridiculous: Peter Schiff Lost Access To His Bitcoin Holdings

Serves that douchebag fiat paper shill right..

I agree with description, but wallet management is tough, especially if you did not use the wallet for a few years.
We think that we remember/record everything right, but sometimes we make mistakes (especially if trying to memorize something).
Memory plays games from time to time.

[JayJuanGee]

Nice. Already 25% increase from the 15th-20th December. The next target 18th January. Maybe a day more or less. Will consider to take some profits.

Told ya! Target 18th January! It worked like a magic! JuanGee, do you believe now in this theory? Or still sceptical?

You are a fucking diptwat.

I will say that.. reason: because you mentioned my name  along with your stupid-ass numerology, phoney baloney. 

You are just waiting to get fucked up the ass.

Bob has not been feeling too good recently, so if he does not want to sacrifice one for the team, we might have to find another willing one.. .   

[El duderino_]

Meanwhile, in Sudan:



https://twitter.com/AleZ2016/status/1218869472464965633

This is complete pain, horror, madness for my eyes.... evening ruined  

[ssmc2]

Lol of the day:

Ridiculous: Peter Schiff Lost Access To His Bitcoin Holdings

Serves that douchebag fiat paper shill right..

I agree with description, but wallet management is tough, especially if you did not use the wallet for a few years.
We think that we remember/record everything right, but sometimes we make mistakes (especially if trying to memorize something).
Memory plays games from time to time.

Anyone who is interested in getting into BTC should get a hardware wallet and follow the instructions. Schiff wouldn't have had to tweet that if he had.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Meanwhile, in Sudan:



https://twitter.com/AleZ2016/status/1218869472464965633

This is complete pain, horror, madness for my eyes.... evening ruined  

No animal should be kept in captivity unless it’s a conservation type thing, to protect a species in low numbers.

[AlcoHoDL]

Ridiculous: Peter Schiff Lost Access To His Bitcoin Holdings

From Twitter:

I just lost all the #Bitcoin I have ever owned. My wallet got corrupted somehow and my password is no longer valid. So now not only is my Bitcoin intrinsically worthless; it has no market value either. I knew owning Bitcoin was a bad idea I was too stupid and incompetent to be able to handle a Bitcoin wallet and keep a backup of my seed, I just never realized it was this bad what the hell I was doing all this time, but it's all good because the coins I lost will make Bitcoin more scarce and the smart BTC HoDLers will all benefit!

FTF him.

[Raja_MBZ]

Meanwhile, in Sudan:



https://twitter.com/AleZ2016/status/1218869472464965633

This is complete pain, horror, madness for my eyes.... evening ruined  

TBH, I wish I could lock up the corrupt politicians of Sudan inside that cage so that those two may fill their hunger.

[jupiter9]

Nice. Already 25% increase from the 15th-20th December. The next target 18th January. Maybe a day more or less. Will consider to take some profits.

Told ya! Target 18th January! It worked like a magic! JuanGee, do you believe now in this theory? Or still sceptical?

You are a fucking diptwat.

I will say that.. reason: because you mentioned my name  along with your stupid-ass numerology, phoney baloney.  

You are just waiting to get fucked up the ass.

Bob has not been feeling too good recently, so if he does not want to sacrifice one for the team, we might have to find another willing one.. .    

No, because you canot explain why is this stupid if it works?  Now it's the 2nd time in a row. That's not luck. I called only twice in 3 months, the bottom and now the top. Please explain why is it stupid?  I will shut my mouth when you guess the next bottom and the next top. But i don't think you have that knowledge or luck to giess that.

[jbreher]

Let's say you come up with $1million as nice round number. Again, this could as low as $500K in some countries and just for a very modest lifestyle up to $5 million for US, with many years to live, and with a nice lifestyle.

Daym you need $5m to live in the US?

Wellllll...

The traditional financial advisor .. um ... advice is to plan on withdrawing 4% annually.

So 4% of $5M is $200K. Is that enough? Before taxes? It's an individual target.

Note that the 4% assumes normal retirement age and life expectancy. If retiring early or planning on living to 268 years of age, you might wanna reduce the percentage for calculation purposes.

I might have different assumptions about the traditional 4%, which I thought was meant to be a perpetually sustainable withdrawal rate because it is presumed that you are going to be able to average at least 4% per year returns (some years higher and some years lower).  So, 4% should even work for someone who lives to  268 years old.

Well, there are a lot of unspoken assumptions that go into the 4% figure. So, there are a lot of ways to skin this cat.

As for me, I value dollar-value a whole lot less than I value purchasing power. In order to be perpetual in terms of purchasing power, your return needs to outrun inflation by a factor of 4%. Which is a whole lot more than simple 4% per annum in dollar terms.

I would think that 'financial advisors' -- CFPs and the like -- have a fiduciary duty to forecast typical life expectancies into their recommendations. Accordingly, I believe the publicly broadcast 4% figure to factor in typical (e.g. 65) retirement, depleting all principal exactly by the day of expected death. Otherwise, their client would be 'leaving money on the table'. Literally. Plus, that is roughly the explicit disclaimer I have commonly heard attached to such advice.

But hey - it's just a wet finger held aloft in the wind. What is more important than the 4% figure is going through the exercise of deriving it, so you can tailor a plan to your own situation.