Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Good Morning WO gang!
Observing corn @9647
Observing people around you going bonkers because of first COVID-19 contagion at 60km from where they (we) live.

A few of details of this story are actually scary:

• The infected person never travelled to China
• The invected person ate a pizza one month ago (forget 14 days incubation period then) with a colleague of his who was back from China
• That particular person has no symptoms and tested negative to every check.

Uhhhh or there is undetected community spread of the virus.  How does he know he has it if he has no symptoms?

[El duderino_]

Just got an email from Trezor with a link to their halving blog which mostly shits on PlanBTC stock to flow model.  I've always considered the S2F strong hopium for hodlers so nothing new but nice to get level-headed approach to alternative narratives.


TLDR, S2F model shows scarcity, not demand. Price and demand historically goes up with each supply halving, how much this time, still nobody knows.

Which is why I have always said the S2F will only be valid until it isn't, and that is probably coming soon.... maybe in one year, maybe two... It is just a matter of time it reaches a price mathematically impossible to achieve. But way sooner than reaching that point it will begin to fail.

Can Bitcoin reach $100K in the next couple of years? Yes, it is a *possibility*. I don't even give it a 50/50 chance... which is a lot anyways!

Can S2F model still be valid 10 years from now? No, it simply can't.

Nice hopium though.

Don't be to bearish bit'serveeee 

[HairyMaclairy]

I have updated my model to account for increased hash rate, which is pushing the halvening date forward.  I modestly predict $12,100 on the halvening date.

[Lambie Slayer]

Good morning, being above 10,000 looks good.



They say the same as us, but they go into more details.

ergo, JJG is female.

His salty cunt does qualify him for quasi-female status.

Aren't "we" (that is not "royal" we, by the way) in a bad mood today?    Yes Slayer, you will know I am no longer salty when I learn how to make my text walls much smaller and learn not to get angry and butt hurt about people speculating in a speculation thread. I promise Im working hard on this.

Good luck.  Lmk if you need any advice.

[El duderino_]

A friend calling me with questions about “decentralized finance” someone knows about it ?
Dharma.io is a thing in it ..... ??  

Bitcoin is the decentralized finance he is looking for.

The one on Eth is vaporware.

Show him this:
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/56207/bzx-attacked-again-645k-in-eth-estimated-to-be-lost

He always do like to listen to Ivon on Tech .... and they where talking about "decentralized finance"

He was a bit impressed and wondering what it exactly was and if its worth any time...

[El duderino_]

Good morning, being above 10,000 looks good.



They say the same as us, but they go into more details.

ergo, JJG is female.

His salty cunt does qualify him for quasi-female status.

Aren't "we" (that is not "royal" we, by the way) in a bad mood today?    Yes Slayer, you will know I am no longer salty when I learn how to make my text walls much smaller and learn not to get angry and butt hurt about people speculating in a speculation thread. I promise Im working hard on this.

Good luck.  Lmk if you need any advice.

LS I do admire your work of taking JJG under your wings, making an honest and better man out of the poor soul.... THX man, you make places great again!

[El duderino_]

I think BTC is going to rise.

The legendary rpietila.

fixed that for you

The once legendary rpietila.

very sad but fuck off. OK thanks you got me into monero, then you robbed a lot of people.

Why arent people like this banned.

Big shame, the fallen hero from my view.

Fuck off then fuck off again.

We all do have our fallen Hero's 

 Not worth any attention if they robbed you

[Lambie Slayer]

Good morning, being above 10,000 looks good.



They say the same as us, but they go into more details.

ergo, JJG is female.

His salty cunt does qualify him for quasi-female status.

Aren't "we" (that is not "royal" we, by the way) in a bad mood today?    Yes Slayer, you will know I am no longer salty when I learn how to make my text walls much smaller and learn not to get angry and butt hurt about people speculating in a speculation thread. I promise Im working hard on this.

Good luck.  Lmk if you need any advice.

LS I do admire your work of taking JJG under your wings, making an honest and better man out of the poor soul.... THX man, you make places great again!

Mr. Dude, you are most welcome. I believe we can make him into a kind and generous human being one day.

[El duderino_]

^
ROI can be great in that one

[Lauda]

A friend calling me with questions about “decentralized finance” someone knows about it ?
Dharma.io is a thing in it ..... ??  

Bitcoin is the decentralized finance he is looking for.

The one on Eth is vaporware.

Show him this:
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/56207/bzx-attacked-again-645k-in-eth-estimated-to-be-lost

He always do like to listen to Ivon on Tech .... and they where talking about "decentralized finance"

He was a bit impressed and wondering what it exactly was and if its worth any time...

It is as impressive as the promises from 2015/2016 that Smart Contracts would be used in everything and replace normal contracts. Where are they being used? Token generation. Anything else?  Decentralized finance is the new buzzword for nonsense.

[fillippone]

Good Morning WO gang!
Observing corn @9647
Observing people around you going bonkers because of first COVID-19 contagion at 60km from where they (we) live.

A few of details of this story are actually scary:

• The infected person never travelled to China
• The invected person ate a pizza one month ago (forget 14 days incubation period then) with a colleague of his who was back from China
• That particular person has no symptoms and tested negative to every check.

Uhhhh or there is undetected community spread of the virus.  How does he know he has it if he has no symptoms?

The facts are not clear actually.

Italian press is all over the case: of course now all the focus is n the virus spread.
There is the guy is infected
The pregnant wife is infected
The third infected is...

...drumroll...

a friend of the couple (not better specificed whose of the two members of the couple he's closer to....)

EDIT: SixSixteen infections right now.

[El duderino_]

A friend calling me with questions about “decentralized finance” someone knows about it ?
Dharma.io is a thing in it ..... ??  

Bitcoin is the decentralized finance he is looking for.

The one on Eth is vaporware.

Show him this:
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/56207/bzx-attacked-again-645k-in-eth-estimated-to-be-lost

He always do like to listen to Ivon on Tech .... and they where talking about "decentralized finance"

He was a bit impressed and wondering what it exactly was and if its worth any time...

It is as impressive as the promises from 2015/2016 that Smart Contracts would be used in everything and replace normal contracts. Where are they being used? Token generation. Anything else?  Decentralized finance is the new buzzword for nonsense.

For me its not really a thing cause its ETH and I don't like ETH myself.... But my friend really like to learn a lot and is busy with exploring a lot of stuff, what isn't to bad of-course as long as your not tempted to fall for any traps etc...

As I quickly saw I would never like to buy ETH for starters and then lock them in for a year and get a 6.6% ROI as he said .... I just like my stashes in BTC etc to be controlled whenever I wish to do something...

But I think the main question is he said its out for a year or something and know been backed by Coinbase so is it legit?? I think he's more interested in knowing is it a possible scam thing or legit thing....

[Lambie Slayer]

Lambie, I’m over 90% in the King.

I have my home & an apartment but if you don’t include them then I’m over 90% in bitcoin.

There are a lot of ways to attempt to categorize how much value you have invested into bitcoin versus what is your investment (or quasi-investable assets).  You have a business too, right?  I understand that some investments are not very liquid, but I think that amongst the most accurate ways to calculate your investment into bitcoin as compared with other assets is to count them all, including your home and an apartment that you own and your business.  I like to fish for personal info as try to force my tedious incremental bs on people.

Sure, sometimes, you might want to shave off some of the value of certain investments if they are either NOT very liquid or if they have some encumbrances, such as a co-owner who you may have to convince to liquidate, if you were to need to. If it weren't for hypotheticals I would struggle type so much gibberish.

Another calculation might be to figure out how much money that you might have that you have already dedicated to BTC.  I tend to set money aside for BTC, but I don't necessarily spend it right away on BTC, but I instead plug it into my formula that has various categories.  Let's say that I have already projected that I have $200 extra in cash coming in in March, May, July and August, and I have $500 extra coming in April and June, so that has already been plugged into my anticipated cash available for bitcoin investments and it counts in my calculating of what I have available so it would be dedicated to DCA and buying on dips.  However, for some reason during that 6 month period, I receive an extra $900 that I had not expected.  The extra $900 would be divided into 3 to buy immediately with $300 and then the other two portions of $300 would each be plugged in for DCA and buying on dips, respectively.I live in a state of pain and anxiety so I try to inject this into others by elaborating on painfully tedious scenarios.

Also, for me, personally, I have repeated almost a zillion times to that deaf-ass diptwat, lambie bambie, that I had targeted 10% as my initial investment amount that I had largely reached in late 2014 - yet we know what happened in 2015... (largely flat prices at the bottom), so DCA had pretty much caused my own allocation to end up going into the 13% territory... and then we also know what happened between late 2015 and late 2017, BTC did about a 78x price increase, and it still did not really bottom out below 12x (to preserve at least 12x), so I personally had already decided that personally I was not going to diversify out of BTC..... so fuck that diptwat deaf-ass hears what he wants to hear lambie bambie, and I don't need to disclose anymore of my particulars, even though I continue to recommend that starting considerations during injecting new value into BTC are likely good to be focusing on 1% to 10% as a starting guideline, and with bitcoin you largely do not need to leverage or to overdo anything in order to still have a large chance of getting rich as fuck from BTC... No need to gamble, leverage or jeopardize yourself in any kind of way in order to still become rich as fuck.    Slayer is really getting to me. Nothing I hate more than seeing my walls of gibberish translated into a few simple sentences. My goal is to annoy everyone. I take great pride in this. I cant achieve this if he provides cliff's notes to my text walls. I dont like being embarrassed by him, but Im too compulsive to resist provoking and ranting against him when he just minds his own business and focuses on promoting King Bitcoin like the kind gentleman he is. FML.

Its ok GayJG. Your butt hurt will decrease over time Im sure, just get more exercise and type less angry text walls. Try not logging in for a day or too. A little detox will help you feel better.  

[Lambie Slayer]

via Imgflip Meme Generator
Source

Well done.  

[Lambie Slayer]

Basically, the situation I'm in is if I didn't have BTC to supplement my income I'd have a very sad life; never eating out, no holidays, no 'nice' things every-so-often.
I'm VERY lucky to have BTC. Very.

treating ourselves to something extra every now and then via btc i mined or bought is the deal i made with my wife when i 1st got into btc.

gotta take profits at some point. we certainly enjoyed our "upgrades." works for me as this all could still take a digger.

Maybe ironic the treat for myself way back was to spunk some money on bitcoins, its full circle.

Not "maybe"... completely ironic I have tightened my expenses to absurd limits just for being able to hodling moar. When I could be spending way more than before (I have always been very frugal) I am spending even less than before. Ironic is even an understatement.

Admirable.  

[mindrust]

defi is a scam.  Yes it is. Just like IOTA. Even though it says "decentralized" in its name, it is not decentralized neither.

Charlie Lee has something to say about defi too, your friend also should read this:

Litecoin Creator Charlie Lee Drops the Hammer on DeFi, Calls It ‘Theatre’, ‘Semi-Centralized’ and ‘The Worst of Both Worlds’

I think Charlie Lee knows a little bit of what he is talking about, don't you agree?

[Lambie Slayer]

80 days till the Halvening and all is well.  

Bless us oh Bitcoin, our Lord and Savior, with your diminishing supply.

[marcus_of_augustus]

fuck me

I think it might be time to panic guys

... panicking wont help, it will make you more vulnerable, it will raise your cortisol levels and may impair your immune system. The antidote to panic is information. Get informed, stay calm, plan ahead and work your plan. (Failure to plan is a plan to failure - Ben Franklin). Get lots of sunlight, fresh air, exercise, sleep and a good diet. A healthy sex/love life, mental wellness and prayer/meditation are beneficial also.

The infection spread numbers are starting to look like most gubmint efforts, except complete border closure yesterday, will be easily overwhelmed. The Japanese, who you might have thought would be the paradigm of OCD cleanliness and efficiency turned a cruise ship with 3700 people on board and one old lady with diarrhea into a floating petri dish of SARS-2 catastrophe. Our healthcare systems are not set-up for this, there is no real training in hazmat protocols, only lots of expensive PPE kit for hazmat theatre and big taxpayer funded bureaucratic agencies creaming it off hoping a real hazard never shows up in their lifetime, or before they can collect their generous gubmint pensions. The general Western systems  response will be worse than the Japanese response on that poxy tub. Already we are seeing infected hospital workers, soldiers, policemen popping up all over the place.

Here's a look at some numbers. Iran's Mullahs in their wisdom decided to withhold information and now suddenly announced 2 dead (then quickly upped that to 9?). What this means is that there is likely at least 2000 people already infected in Iran somewhere. How do I get that? It takes approx. 4 weeks to succumb to this SARS-2 virus and the CFR (case fatality rate) is running around 1-2%, that means 3-4 weeks ago when these 2 people contracted around 200 people were infected in Iran. The case numbers double roughly every 7 days, 200*2^3 = 1600+.

It's a good bet that Western gubmints also, despite risking a furious backlash and Institutional suicide, are withholding vital pandemic information that the public could use to save lives. They are actively censoring the Internet on a scale never witnessed before, ask Google if it does evil? There is something seriously hinky about the testing kits being supplied solely by WHO/CDC. They are exorbitantly expensive, have high false result rates and have been rumoured to come attached with legal requirements for tested patients to sign waivers of liability and gag orders. Seriously strange situation and creating an information vacuum for the virus to thrive in the legalese-created shadows.

The rate of global transmission outside of China is still doubling case numbers every 6-7 days, today that number surpassed 1200. If this continues  by mid-March there will be >20,000 infected confirmed cases and up to 3-4 times that asymptomatic/undetected. There's worse news about secondary SARS-2 infections but it's too depressing to share, if true it needs more data to verify and get a better handle on how widespread the effect might be.

[Lambie Slayer]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[El duderino_]

80 days till the Halvening and all is well.  

Bless us oh Bitcoin, our Lord and Savior, with your diminishing supply.

Eighty till halving.
With diminishing supply.
Bitcoin lord savior.