Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

When I shorted ETH last week at 1652.04 I did it as a consequence of BTC failing to break the 200MA resistance.
I was expecting BTC to confirm the technical double bottom of June 18th and November 09th one last time.
Now all this wind of news and fud is catching my sails, still I believe the bottom is in technically - just needs one more confirmation.
The only thing that has changed is that we are moving there faster now.

seems half of twitter is waiting for 12k-13k, I wonder if it will happen  

good luck with betting on lower BTC prices when being already 72% under the ATH  

I think crypto twitter is pretty split right now. Maybe 40% expect a rebound from around $20K, another 40% still expect $12-14K with probably around 20% undecided. I say "still expect", but in reality they previously called for $10-12K and have since increased their bearish target by about +$2K. I imagine that with Bitcoin returning to $24K they will be calling for $16-18K again (increasing by +$2K again).

If anything the bears are useful for one thing, being around $4K off the bottom each time. So based on this I'd estimate the lowest price goes is around $18K ($14K+4). Ideally it holds $19K for sake of continuing the uptrend, but this is also the bullish scenario too many are betting on, myself included. I'll look forward to $24K levels again, as I imagine another higher low around $22K ($18K+4) would be in play.

Wouldn't bet on that too. We could see a confirmation of the technical double bottom already at 18k.

This I agree is more realistic than $12-14K right now. Turning previous resistance into support with a technical double rounding bottom is still a reasonable suggestion for now.

Closed the CME "gap", not that I believe in this kind of thing being the utmost important.

Partially OT: I am still 'amazed' as of how fast things went downhill at SVB.
Wed stock at $267 and mostly flat
Thu, a gap down, then plunge with stock ending at $106.
Today-receivership, most likely a ZERO for stock holders, maybe a pittance.
Apparently , they have above 180bil of assets and close to 170bil liabilities, so maybe depositors would get close to 100%, but it would take a long time for those with more than 250K deposits.

[AverageGlabella]

 suppose that 30% on electricity on btc miners will take place ... wouldn't it contribute to bitcoin scarcity due to some miners stop mining...

No. All mining just moves outside of the US. More money goes to the Chinese.

The current administration appears to be financially incompetent (or actually malicious) so it's hard to discount this could happen.

Not many people can afford to move their mining operations out side to another country and I think this only applies to companies and not people like you and me who mine. Moving it to another country means you have to trust someone to run it for you or you have to put it in a house or location you own which is a security or cost problem that most people can not over come.

[Toxic2040]

starboard batteries fire for effect

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hostm]

This is the last chance to change all stablecoins for bitcoin. Many did it at $ 16 - 17 k but now it is still possible. Remember this when bitcoin will be $ 35 - 40 k.

[sirazimuth]

.....

looks like they use real money ^(BTC) to pay off debt.

I do that too.

[BitcoinBunny]

Fin "guy" predicts 100bp interest rate CUT within 6-9 mo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdSiIYBiGjI

Stocks bottom is usually within 6 mo of the cut start, so, say, cuts start in 3-6mo, then bull market starts (in full) in 9-12 mo.
Makes sense, just before the halving.

That...or we are in 1930 (or maybe spring 2007)...I prefer the first scenario (100 bp cut).

Looking to make a sizable purchase of btc and stocks, but not yet.

A lot of people / markets seem to have been predicting this type of Central Bank pivot.

So far it hasn't happened and I can't see it happening as banks are still not passing on the rate increases to savers, foolishly causing their own bank runs instead of protecting themselves.
Powell is also saying something very different than what these pundits are always predicting. He hasn't hinted at a pivot at all, possibly only a slowing of interest rate rises. He may well keep them at 5-6% for several years.

What needs to happen however is for governments to stop spending money they don't have (as THAT is forcing the central banks into impossible positions - just print more but control inflation? How?) and promising voters the world and stop pursuing fairy tale Greta Thunberg utopias that don't help to heat people's homes.
Stop forming this two party axis that is going on in the world and leading to a stupid Cold War scenario: The West vs China / Russia / Middle East (even Saudi Arabia and Iran are now getting along!).
End the WEF nonsense.

Central banks cannot stop that disastrous policy that is a large part of the inflation problem right now.

Get rid of the Neo-cons and multi millionaire / billionaire politicians.

Or just continue and let BTC take over I guess....
 

I always say: if you don't make a decision, then a decision will eventually be made for you.

[JimboToronto]

We are at the dawn of the decentralisation of all things. Wrenching back control to the people through peaceful means.
Bitcoin was the Genesis of it all.

The decentralization movement started long before Bitcoin. The reason why I was immediately attracted to Bitcoin when I first found out about it was that I was already a decentralization enthusiast.

I prefer to think that Napster was the voice crying in the wilderness. Napster itself was centralized (just the users were decentralized) and doomed to fail but it led to a decentralization evolution through Kazaa and Limewire, then through Bittorrent and Magnet Links and then the decentralization of PirateBay onto redundant servers on a network of virtual machines running in the cloud across many countries and continents.

It also wasn't always peaceful. Hardware was seized and people went to jail. In the long run though, the people were destined to win. War has changed over history. No longer do brightly uniformed bugle- and bagpipe-blowing drum-beating armies line up on the field of battle. Guerilla warfare is the standard now and is evolving into bot and virus warfare.

Exciting times indeed.

[JayJuanGee]

But the interesting part about all of this is that Biden is taking risks as well with his "all-out assault" on cryptocurrency. 50 million US citizens and voters own cryptocurrency. It is impressive to read that cryptocurrency may no longer be a topic that can be neglected in terms of presidential elections. Who would have thought that in 2010?

Not sure about the exact relevance of "cryptocurrency" to this thread.

I doubt that even close to 50 million Americans know what bitcoin is, even if some of them might own some.

Perhaps there are closer to 10 million American that might have significant exposure to bitcoin, and have some kind of actual clue about what it is and why they own it

Call me a pessimist.

There are nearly 400 million Americans.  how many of them are adults?  250 million, perhaps?  that's why the article is asserting that 20% of American's claim to have exposure to crypto.. whatever the fuck that is?.. anyone trying to assert that 1/5 Americans know what the fuck bitcoin is, even though maybe 75% of adult Americans have likely heard the word bitcoin.... call me a skeptic in regards to those numbers of supposed exposure to the topic of our discussion in this thread.. aka dee cornz.

Logic is upside down these days.
...It used to be: (pretty much) someone investigating something unlikely for a bit of fun pass time.
Now it is: someone whose views don't align with ours and doesn't believe our lies and is probably right so we must silence them.

What I see is a deliberate suppression out of fear, not in strength.
If you are strong, you don't need to suppress new ideas and technologies.
Something must be up, not sure what, but some incomprehensible tax proposals were also tabled.
I guess the "system" wants to 'eat itself to death"...Spaceballs vibes

I think that you could just summarize everything that you said Biodom as a demonstration/evidence of desperation.

There is only one place a government that wants to tax people's gains at 40% belongs and that is in a locked up dungeon.

Add a possible 30% tax on electricity used for cryptomining..

Biden plans to increase taxes to collect a whopping $5.5 trillion over the next decade.

suppose that 30% on electricity on btc miners will take place ... wouldn't it contribute to bitcoin scarcity due to some miners stop mining...

 add this to the recent news of Nuclear plant mining bitcoins in PA and it looks like someone is trying hard to eliminate competitors lol

Maybe there merely is a desire to incentivize miners to move their asses and assets to jurisdictions outside of the Estados Unidos?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Fin "guy" predicts 100bp interest rate CUT within 6-9 mo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdSiIYBiGjI

Stocks bottom is usually within 6 mo of the cut start, so, say, cuts start in 3-6mo, then bull market starts (in full) in 9-12 mo.
Makes sense, just before the halving.

That...or we are in 1930 (or maybe spring 2007)...I prefer the first scenario (100 bp cut).

Looking to make a sizable purchase of btc and stocks, but not yet.

we need to get to 6% we are are 4.57%

so .50 march 22
+.50 may 3
+.50 Jun 14
= 1.5 and 6.07% by Jun/jul.

We should be good for a zero or a cut after that. thats the jul 30 for a zero or a neg .25

after that who knows

[Negotiation]

I doubt that even close to 50 million Americans know what bitcoin is, even if some of them might own some.

Perhaps there are closer to 10 million American that might have significant exposure to bitcoin, and have some kind of actual clue about what it is and why they own it

I also agree with you that Americans are ahead in almost all aspects, I would like to add to you that people living in America are getting more benefits from every economic aspect. It seems to me that the real reason for this is that because America is economically prosperous, they get more of any economic advantage and in most cases get it first.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin CEO is the best… he launched a new bitcoin ad
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/11n7b1a/new_bitcoin_ad_just_dropped/

That is Coinbase and not Binance. Still the ad is pretty good considering it typically points out the issue faced by everyone who has a bank account.

BTW have we touched the bottom yet or it is just the beginning?

Just the beginning.

I'm still struggling with my dads ilnesses. Too bad that Bitcoin is crashing and I have no comfort in it. I'm spending like crazy these months for everything that I want. It is just a mood I've never been before. I know that the price is good for buying, but I'm deep under water regarding monthly fiat income. I will keep my main stash intact, only spending what I need to buy something. And "need" is a strong word. For example why on earth I decided to buy Meta Quest 2 VR only to play Star Wars Squadrons, provided I had the game for 2 years and barely played it? And why I bought apple airpods 1 (real) and 2 (fake) only to decide to buy pro 2 (real). I don't even have iphone or ipad to use them properly. I'm a fan of Samsung - with Galaxy tab s7+ and s23 ultra recently bought, I'm quite satisfied.

tl;sr. May be later this year the DCA mood will return again, but not now.

Of course, each of us make choices, and sometimes we have a lot of expenses.. and we still consider whether and how much to invest into something that may or may not end up paying off (such as bitcornz)... in a deferred gratification kind of way.

I cannot know your situation enough to know whether $10 per week might be too much to dedicate towards dee cornz.. those surely are personal choices, and another thing if you engaged in a kind of aggressive buying of BTC of maybe $1k per month (or $250 per week) that might have lasted from around the time of your forum registration date, even until late 2021, you could have made quite a few mistakes but still have some cornz left out of the 18.5BTC (which may have had a total investment of around $65k) that would have been possible to accumulate under those kinds of conditions and that any BTC that you still hold could still have averages in price of quite a bit less than the current BTC price.

... But yeah of course, mistakes could have been made.. and yes.. a better case scenario would have been to have had been able to have had been able to have held onto those BTC... whether you did or not may be another story.. .. and surely personal stories vary.

....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctly

yeah.. you are retarded.

#justsaying.

 

[OgNasty]

This is the last chance to change all stablecoins for bitcoin. Many did it at $ 16 - 17 k but now it is still possible. Remember this when bitcoin will be $ 35 - 40 k.

Stablecoins? It’s always a good time to change those into BTC. If you don’t the people behind the scenes of the stablecoin will do it with your money and keep the gains while leaving you the risk. I am not super confident we won’t retest $16K but I think the smart move remains buying as much BTC as you’re able as frequently as possible for this entire year.

[newbtc101]

There is only one place a government that wants to tax people's gains at 40% belongs and that is in a locked up dungeon.

Add a possible 30% tax on electricity used for cryptomining..

Biden plans to increase taxes to collect a whopping $5.5 trillion over the next decade.

suppose that 30% on electricity on btc miners will take place ... wouldn't it contribute to bitcoin scarcity due to some miners stop mining...

 add this to the recent news of Nuclear plant mining bitcoins in PA and it looks like someone is trying hard to eliminate competitors lol

Maybe there merely is a desire to incentivize miners to move their asses and assets to jurisdictions outside of the Estados Unidos?
[/quote]

True, JayJuanGee... but then, who will be voting for Joe in 2024? 

[Toxic2040]

[newbtc101]

Now that 30% tax on btc mining makes sense ... I mean how would THEY find out if there is a individual miner. But you cant hide btc mining at oil and gas wells. The industrial level of btc mining is boosted (talking about mass adoption) given that btc mining at PA nuclear plant and now these:

"JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Bill introduced in Texas to encourage and finance #Bitcoin mining at abandoned oil & gas wells. 🙌"

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1634273958034829312

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin CEO is the best… he launched a new bitcoin ad
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/11n7b1a/new_bitcoin_ad_just_dropped/

That is Coinbase and not Binance. Still the ad is pretty good considering it typically points out the issue faced by everyone who has a bank account.

BTW have we touched the bottom yet or it is just the beginning?

Just the beginning.

I'm still struggling with my dads ilnesses. Too bad that Bitcoin is crashing and I have no comfort in it. I'm spending like crazy these months for everything that I want. It is just a mood I've never been before. I know that the price is good for buying, but I'm deep under water regarding monthly fiat income. I will keep my main stash intact, only spending what I need to buy something. And "need" is a strong word. For example why on earth I decided to buy Meta Quest 2 VR only to play Star Wars Squadrons, provided I had the game for 2 years and barely played it? And why I bought apple airpods 1 (real) and 2 (fake) only to decide to buy pro 2 (real). I don't even have iphone or ipad to use them properly. I'm a fan of Samsung - with Galaxy tab s7+ and s23 ultra recently bought, I'm quite satisfied.

tl;sr. May be later this year the DCA mood will return again, but not now.

Of course, each of us make choices, and sometimes we have a lot of expenses.. and we still consider whether and how much to invest into something that may or may not end up paying off (such as bitcornz)... in a deferred gratification kind of way.

I cannot know your situation enough to know whether $10 per week might be too much to dedicate towards dee cornz.. those surely are personal choices, and another thing if you engaged in a kind of aggressive buying of BTC of maybe $1k per month (or $250 per week) that might have lasted from around the time of your forum registration date, even until late 2021, you could have made quite a few mistakes but still have some cornz left out of the 18.5BTC (which may have had a total investment of around $65k) that would have been possible to accumulate under those kinds of conditions and that any BTC that you still hold could still have averages in price of quite a bit less than the current BTC price.

... But yeah of course, mistakes could have been made.. and yes.. a better case scenario would have been to have had been able to have had been able to have held onto those BTC... whether you did or not may be another story.. .. and surely personal stories vary.

....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctly

yeah.. you are retarded.

#justsaying.

 

First off fuck you jjg


at nohomo

Here is a suggestion april/may will be the new i-bond

2021nov 7.1
2022apr/may 9.8
2022nov 6.89
2023apr/may whisper of 8.3 or 8.4%

so this is easy peasy wait till apr/may see new i-bond and see if it is 8.3 or 8.4%

then see how it affects btc

I did two dip buys
 21.7
 20.3
and i stopped and did not go for 19.9
i did my dca

4x+4x+2x is 10x fiat units of btc

i have the weds dca working my plan is to buy dips and dca till nov 2023 and hodl it. it will be close to 100x fiat units of btc.

but if you think I wont buy some i-bonds in april may you are wrong. I will.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation