ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Eric Muyser]

again with the market manipulation and scare tactics?  guys, just relax, and stop filling buy orders.

Or, sell your shares and write me puts. Premium is 0.32, Strike 3.5, exp ~90 days. That's a better return than you'd get from dividends and unless the share price goes below 3.5 BTC, you're safe. Even if it goes to zero you'll lose less than you would have by holding shares.

Plus, a share of AM for 3.5 BTC is cheap, right? 

PM me if you want to write puts.

NB: For the last 68 pages of this thread nobody ever said "guys, just relax and stop overhyping the stock"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2643382#msg2643382

It was at 5 and I was saying to stop and cool down a while.

I'll say it in your words now though. Guys, just relax and stop overhyping the stock. It's at a good spot right now and not undervalued and shouldn't be hyped. Chill and wait for Friedcat and/or blade sales.

[Vycid]

again with the market manipulation and scare tactics?  guys, just relax, and stop filling buy orders.

Or, sell your shares and write me puts. Premium is 0.32, Strike 3.5, exp ~90 days. That's a better return than you'd get from dividends and unless the share price goes below 3.5 BTC, you're safe. Even if it goes to zero you'll lose less than you would have by holding shares.

Plus, a share of AM for 3.5 BTC is cheap, right?  

PM me if you want to write puts.

NB: For the last 68 pages of this thread nobody ever said "guys, just relax and stop overhyping the stock"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2643382#msg2643382

It was at 5 and I was saying to stop and cool down a while.

I'll say it in your words now though. Guys, just relax and stop overhyping the stock. It's at a good spot right now and not undervalued and shouldn't be hyped. Chill and wait for Friedcat and/or blade sales.

It is true that your bullish sentiment has been a lot more moderated than other people here.

The question, as ever, is how fundamentals are going to translate to share price - especially considering that information about the fundamentals is scarce at best.

1 BTC of share price wobble should not constitute "panic" for anyone that didn't buy at 5 BTC, if a 40000% runup isn't automatically a "bubble". Realistically, if the ~4.5BTC level is an adjustment and not a dead friedcat bounce (), that is a good sign for AM, since it's a termination of the parabolic trajectory that doesn't involve everyone losing their ass.

In other words: you need people selling right now, or the next time there's a shake-up, there are going to be so many weak hands still holding that the share price will end up in the toilet.

Meanwhile, my outlook for 90d puts is unaffected. If the Avalon chips ship on schedule and KNC delivers, things are going to get interesting (~+500TH and cheap alternative hardware). If they don't, my losses are modest.

[velacreations]

I'm talking about what is happening on BTCT, which is what happened last night.  It is not the "market" reacting, it is someone diligently going through buy orders all the way to the bottom.  and then they wait for newbs to freak out and they buy back cheap shares.

That kind of market manipulation is unhealthy, and I'm saying, folks, stop with it.  Don't fall into the trap and fill sell orders.  If you want to sell, set a price and leave it. Don't go chasing the manipulators' tail, cause you are gonna get fleeced.

This has nothing to do with fundamentals (strong, btw, look at the average APRs), and everything to do with scare tactics and market manipulations.

You know how to fleece the manipulators?  Don't sell.  That's how they lose.

And that's not hype, it's the truth, folks.

[Vycid]

I'm talking about what is happening on BTCT, which is what happened last night.  It is not the "market" reacting, it is someone diligently going through buy orders all the way to the bottom.  and then they wait for newbs to freak out and they buy back cheap shares.

That kind of market manipulation is unhealthy, and I'm saying, folks, stop with it.  Don't fall into the trap and fill sell orders.  If you want to sell, set a price and leave it. Don't go chasing the manipulators' tail, cause you are gonna get fleeced.

This has nothing to do with fundamentals (strong, btw, look at the average APRs), and everything to do with scare tactics and market manipulations.

You know how to fleece the manipulators?  Don't sell.  That's how they lose.

And that's not hype, it's the truth, folks.

Do you have proof for this, or just "it went down, and that can't happen unless someone is manipulating!"

It's like anti-FUD 

The "average APR" argument is BS since there's absolutely no guarantee of current return holding for more than a month or two. The downside risk is enormous.

[Eric Muyser]

I'm talking about what is happening on BTCT, which is what happened last night.  It is not the "market" reacting, it is someone diligently going through buy orders all the way to the bottom.  and then they wait for newbs to freak out and they buy back cheap shares.

That kind of market manipulation is unhealthy, and I'm saying, folks, stop with it.  Don't fall into the trap and fill sell orders.  If you want to sell, set a price and leave it. Don't go chasing the manipulators' tail, cause you are gonna get fleeced.

This has nothing to do with fundamentals (strong, btw, look at the average APRs), and everything to do with scare tactics and market manipulations.

You know how to fleece the manipulators?  Don't sell.  That's how they lose.

And that's not hype, it's the truth, folks.

Do you have proof for this, or just "it went down, and that can't happen unless someone is manipulating!"

It's like anti-FUD 

The "average APR" argument is BS since there's absolutely no guarantee of current return holding for more than a month or two. The downside risk is enormous.

In this instance I agree with velacreations. I've noticed manipulation since 3.4 but didn't say anything due to lack of proof. Just looking at the graph and watching it get weird at 3.4. All of a sudden it was being bought up and followed up very thinly, but not even just thin on the way down, they were trying to hold the spread low to induce more buys, and it was thin on the way up but somehow linear like it was being held. Then on the crash it was right back down to basically where it started. Whether was manipulation or not, it's never been so bad. I dunno, not trying to FUD, just saying I noticed something fishy too. Still bullish on AM and still think it's worth the price, or will be again, when we see blade sales and no competition yet in a couple weeks.

[Vycid]

I'm talking about what is happening on BTCT, which is what happened last night.  It is not the "market" reacting, it is someone diligently going through buy orders all the way to the bottom.  and then they wait for newbs to freak out and they buy back cheap shares.

That kind of market manipulation is unhealthy, and I'm saying, folks, stop with it.  Don't fall into the trap and fill sell orders.  If you want to sell, set a price and leave it. Don't go chasing the manipulators' tail, cause you are gonna get fleeced.

This has nothing to do with fundamentals (strong, btw, look at the average APRs), and everything to do with scare tactics and market manipulations.

You know how to fleece the manipulators?  Don't sell.  That's how they lose.

And that's not hype, it's the truth, folks.

Do you have proof for this, or just "it went down, and that can't happen unless someone is manipulating!"

It's like anti-FUD  

The "average APR" argument is BS since there's absolutely no guarantee of current return holding for more than a month or two. The downside risk is enormous.

In this instance I agree with velacreations. I've noticed manipulation since 3.4 but didn't say anything due to lack of proof. Just looking at the graph and watching it get weird at 3.4. All of a sudden it was being bought up and followed up very thinly, but not even just thin on the way down, they were trying to hold the spread low to induce more buys, and it was thin on the way up but somehow linear like it was being held. Then on the crash it was right back down to basically where it started. Whether was manipulation or not, it's never been so bad. I dunno, not trying to FUD, just saying I noticed something fishy too. Still bullish on AM and still think it's worth the price, or will be again, when we see blade sales and no competition yet in a couple weeks.

Do you have charts where I can see stuff like volume and depth of book over time? All I've got is the crappy graphs on BTCT.

Keep in mind that 1000 shares were just auctioned off at 4.5 BTC. That alone will cause weirdness.

[Eric Muyser]

I'm talking about what is happening on BTCT, which is what happened last night.  It is not the "market" reacting, it is someone diligently going through buy orders all the way to the bottom.  and then they wait for newbs to freak out and they buy back cheap shares.

That kind of market manipulation is unhealthy, and I'm saying, folks, stop with it.  Don't fall into the trap and fill sell orders.  If you want to sell, set a price and leave it. Don't go chasing the manipulators' tail, cause you are gonna get fleeced.

This has nothing to do with fundamentals (strong, btw, look at the average APRs), and everything to do with scare tactics and market manipulations.

You know how to fleece the manipulators?  Don't sell.  That's how they lose.

And that's not hype, it's the truth, folks.

Do you have proof for this, or just "it went down, and that can't happen unless someone is manipulating!"

It's like anti-FUD  

The "average APR" argument is BS since there's absolutely no guarantee of current return holding for more than a month or two. The downside risk is enormous.

In this instance I agree with velacreations. I've noticed manipulation since 3.4 but didn't say anything due to lack of proof. Just looking at the graph and watching it get weird at 3.4. All of a sudden it was being bought up and followed up very thinly, but not even just thin on the way down, they were trying to hold the spread low to induce more buys, and it was thin on the way up but somehow linear like it was being held. Then on the crash it was right back down to basically where it started. Whether was manipulation or not, it's never been so bad. I dunno, not trying to FUD, just saying I noticed something fishy too. Still bullish on AM and still think it's worth the price, or will be again, when we see blade sales and no competition yet in a couple weeks.

Do you have charts where I can see stuff like volume and depth of book over time? All I've got is the crappy graphs on BTCT.

Keep in mind that 1000 shares were just auctioned off at 4.5 BTC. That alone will cause weirdness.

http://www.coinflow.co/chart/ASICMINER-PT

[Vycid]

I'm talking about what is happening on BTCT, which is what happened last night.  It is not the "market" reacting, it is someone diligently going through buy orders all the way to the bottom.  and then they wait for newbs to freak out and they buy back cheap shares.

That kind of market manipulation is unhealthy, and I'm saying, folks, stop with it.  Don't fall into the trap and fill sell orders.  If you want to sell, set a price and leave it. Don't go chasing the manipulators' tail, cause you are gonna get fleeced.

This has nothing to do with fundamentals (strong, btw, look at the average APRs), and everything to do with scare tactics and market manipulations.

You know how to fleece the manipulators?  Don't sell.  That's how they lose.

And that's not hype, it's the truth, folks.

Do you have proof for this, or just "it went down, and that can't happen unless someone is manipulating!"

It's like anti-FUD 

The "average APR" argument is BS since there's absolutely no guarantee of current return holding for more than a month or two. The downside risk is enormous.

I won't give you proof but I know who did it.

I already even explained why they did it.

Yes it was manipulation, but if it was not a bit too high it could not have worked.

Any fair play in this market, if you have balls and a large hand, why not.  People should be holding for the long term anyway.

OK, I believe it. Must be a significant player - but I guess there are more people with lots of AM shares around than people with lots of BTC.

[velacreations]

All I am saying is that newbies/others should not play into it.  You want to stop market manipulation like that?  don't sell.  Don't drop your sell orders and don't follow the manipulator.

you can watch the order books and see it happening, all the buy orders getting filled like that.

And hey, yes, its a free market, and people are going to try it, fine. But, the market should react appropriately and just let them lose their ass on a move like that.  You loose a few hundred btc pulling those manipulations, and you stop doing them.

Do not drop your sell orders, and hold your shares.  

As far as who did it, I don't know, nor do I care. I have my suspicions, but in the end, it doesn't matter.  I just don't want to see a bunch of people get fleeced because of this sort of thing.  It is not good for the shareholders.

repeat after me: "I will not drop my sell orders"

[AMuppInTime]

What would be "reasonable" call / put numbers to issue vs. to sell?

7 days:
Call: strike (?) , premium (?)
Put: strike (?) , premium (?)
45 days:
Call: strike (?) , premium (?)
Put: strike (?) , premium (?)
90 days:
Call: strike (?) , premium (?)
Put: strike (?) , premium (?)

Any call/put option on a 90 day timeline is going to be a risk - particularly with the type of market manipulation we've seen, unless way out of the ballpark. I guess that's where valuation comes in

[bobboooiie]

I saw some fake walls today, now we are talking manipulation !

[ThickAsThieves]

Another AM price dip isn't unlikely. BTC/USD is falling apart, and some will want to exit to fiat.

[aahzmundus]

Another AM price dip isn't unlikely. BTC/USD is falling apart, and some will want to exit to fiat.

Watching 50% of my investments value disappear in a week is hard, I like the quick hard crashes... the ones that punch you in the gut and just get it over with.  This dragging me behind a slow moving truck is annoying.

[SOSLOVE868]

Another AM price dip isn't unlikely. BTC/USD is falling apart, and some will want to exit to fiat.

Watching 50% of my investments value disappear in a week is hard, I like the quick hard crashes... the ones that punch you in the gut and just get it over with.  This dragging me behind a slow moving truck is annoying.

No worry...Price will be backing soon , BTC today is far better(More people are within it)  than backed to April 2013...

[Birdy]

Another AM price dip isn't unlikely. BTC/USD is falling apart, and some will want to exit to fiat.

Watching 50% of my investments value disappear in a week is hard, I like the quick hard crashes... the ones that punch you in the gut and just get it over with.  This dragging me behind a slow moving truck is annoying.

Yes, I've also sold most of my shares, although I don't want to exit to fiat.
Bought at ~2.5 sold ~4.3, still solid profit.

It's enough when Btc is crashing, don't want an AM crash adding to that :/

[Streets 2.0]

Another AM price dip isn't unlikely. BTC/USD is falling apart, and some will want to exit to fiat.

Watching 50% of my investments value disappear in a week is hard, I like the quick hard crashes... the ones that punch you in the gut and just get it over with.  This dragging me behind a slow moving truck is annoying.

Yes, I've also sold most of my shares, although I don't want to exit to fiat.
Bought at ~2.5 sold ~4.3, still solid profit.

It's enough when Btc is crashing, don't want an AM crash adding to that :/

Same, weighted avg on btct was 1.9 - sold at 4.3, waiting to hop back in at ~4

[ThickAsThieves]

Another AM price dip isn't unlikely. BTC/USD is falling apart, and some will want to exit to fiat.

Watching 50% of my investments value disappear in a week is hard, I like the quick hard crashes... the ones that punch you in the gut and just get it over with.  This dragging me behind a slow moving truck is annoying.

Yes, I've also sold most of my shares, although I don't want to exit to fiat.
Bought at ~2.5 sold ~4.3, still solid profit.

It's enough when Btc is crashing, don't want an AM crash adding to that :/

Same, weighted avg on btct was 1.9 - sold at 4.3, waiting to hop back in at ~4

It's so funny to me when people post their specific selling and buying plans, and when they point out arbortunities.

[romerun]

to create confusion of course

[TsuyokuNaritai]

The hashrate's been lowish for a few days now. I wonder what Friedcat's up to.

[velacreations]

I saw some fake walls today, now we are talking manipulation !

big ones, too.  These manipulators want AM around 4.  Notice when those sell walls disappeared, they started filling buy orders to fake panic.

The hashrate's been lowish for a few days now. I wonder what Friedcat's up to.

Maybe testing new blades.

We probably won't get an updated until after next week's dividend, at which time, he'll probably announce the new blades for sale.