ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[VeeMiner]

Is AM hashrate skyrocketing or am seeing things?

your vision is good, it is indeed rising. Though it is probably only luck returning

EDIT: 9% of network as per last 100 blocks

where is this? share a source please.

either this (but it use to be delayed)


or here http://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i count all block rewards with less than 101 confirmations

EDIT: currently 8% per last 100 blocks

we're starting to do pretty good again, let's hope it will stay this way...

[EatonABooger]

Have you guys seen this chart.  It is really good showing the most active/successful miner groups.  You can change the scale and turn on/off options.

good stuff.

http://data.bitcoinity.org/#chaaaddfaa

[ThickAsThieves]

I would be so happy if that website simply removed any estimate lower than 3 days.

I'd go further and say that watching the farm hash rate at all is a total waste of time other than to look for obvious and persistent changes (which would be indicated by dividends anyway).

Even the 7-day average can represent bad luck, and it would be close to impossible to confidently distinguish luck from farm growth in that timeframe (unless it were extremely significant growth).

Even if AM published the actual farm hashpower at all times, luck and its results would be the only thing that mattered anyway, and we already have that info.

Your best indicators are the weekly dividend, the mining environment as a whole, and AM's publicly provided schedule for hardware.

[mechs]

I would be so happy if that website simply removed any estimate lower than 3 days.

I'd go further and say that watching the farm hash rate at all is a total waste of time other than to look for obvious and persistent changes (which would be indicated by dividends anyway).

Even the 7-day average can represent bad luck, and it would be close to impossible to confidently distinguish luck from farm growth in that timeframe (unless it were extremely significant growth).

Even if AM published the actual farm hashpower at all times, luck and its results would be the only thing that mattered anyway, and we already have that info.

Your best indicators are the weekly dividend, the mining environment as a whole, and AM's publicly provided schedule for hardware.

I disagree that the weekly dividends are reliable indicators at this point in time.  It all about r&D and rollout of gen 2.  By your logic, the sell-off would be justified.

[Vycid]

I would be so happy if that website simply removed any estimate lower than 3 days.

Your best indicators are the weekly dividend, the mining environment as a whole, and AM's publicly provided schedule for hardware.

Let's talk about the dividend then.

How's the outlook for next week? I heard that if there's no difficulty change that means no franchise income. Is that right?

How about hardware sales? I know people like watching reseller wallets. Is everything in-stock?

[velacreations]

Let's talk about the dividend then.

How's the outlook for next week? I heard that if there's no difficulty change that means no franchise income. Is that right?

How about hardware sales? I know people like watching reseller wallets. Is everything in-stock?

only FC can answer those questions, we don't have enough info to go by.  We don't know the hardware wallets, that's part of the problem, there were almost 3000 btc from hardware sales from 2 weeks ago that never went to the dividend address, but that estimate was just from looking at reseller/group buy wallets.  So, the answer is, we don't know for sure what is coming.

I would like to see a hardware address posted so we can track revenue.  FC mentioned it one time, but nothing since.  That would help.

Maybe some resellers can comment on things being in stock and the sales rates this week.

[keeron]

US based, only silentsonicboom is doing AM hardware on big scale. He dropped his prices considerably. 0.125 for USB, and 3.6 and lower for the blades.

Couple of other small time resellers shifted to redfury sticks which are due in October.

I suspect a restocking or new hw being announced soon. HW sales seem big part of the revenue, especially with unkown issues with their mining.

[empoweoqwj]

If I had a bitcoin for every post along the lines of "FC is going to post real soon and put our minds to rest about this or that" and it never happens ..... I think we are being trained to not expect regular updates from FC any more. The proof is in the lack of pudding

[adamstgBit]

If I had a bitcoin for every post along the lines of "FC is going to post real soon and put our minds to rest about this or that" and it never happens ..... I think we are being trained to not expect regular updates from FC any more. The proof is in the lack of pudding

thats nonsense, FC is going to post real soon and put our minds to rest

 

[mechs]

If I had a bitcoin for every post along the lines of "FC is going to post real soon and put our minds to rest about this or that" and it never happens ..... I think we are being trained to not expect regular updates from FC any more. The proof is in the lack of pudding

thats nonsense, FC is going to post real soon and put our minds to rest

 

Thank god you said that, I was about to get worried

[BitHub]

its all a scam, sell it all

[empoweoqwj]

If I had a bitcoin for every post along the lines of "FC is going to post real soon and put our minds to rest about this or that" and it never happens ..... I think we are being trained to not expect regular updates from FC any more. The proof is in the lack of pudding

thats nonsense, FC is going to post real soon and put our minds to rest

 

kaching!

[culexevilman]

cheap shares @ 1.65

[Rival]

I think the most germane concern should be the arrival of gen2 hardware.  As we have been told in the past (so far borne out by results) that the cost to AM for hardware is "Invincible", at least for products you can order and have hashing in a few days time. The question to ask oneself is whether this pricing invincibility will extend to gen2. It is not unlikely to assume that with the bankroll and experience that FC can order bulk levels of chips and other components in much higher numbers than most competitors, potentially in the tens of millions. On it's face, it would appear that FC can probably out-produce and outprice the competition for gen2 devices, and bring them to market in a timely manner.

It was not so long ago that FC actually held back hashing power because his share of the network hash was growing too large. Part of the strategy for hardware sales was to profit from blades he could not bring online without endangering the 50%+1 line. Currently, he seems more focused on eliminating gen1 blades that were ordered in anticipation of being needed due to anticipation of growth in global hash. That growth fell below his projections, so all new gen1 blades must go!

As FC transitions to gen2, I would expect quiet replacement of gen1 boards in his farm with gen2. This may actually be occurring right now. I expect the AM farm will be converted to gen2 and the original gen1 farm boards retasked to franchisees. Once this process is completed, the AM hash should stabilize at the 10%-15% we expect, with additional income from the franchised gen1 boards. Only then will the announcement come that gen2 boards are completed and available for sale. Additional boards will continue to be fabricated, meeting both AM hash requirements and customer purchases until the Gen3 designs are completed. Rinse, repeat.

If I am correct, we should soon see AM hash rise, drop, rise, drop, and then finally a slow but steady increase in AM hash up to around 15%. This should be the indicator that gen2 is deployed and gen2 blades will soon be available.

Let's see it my crystal ball if full of sparkles or full of crap. Time will tell.

[jinyoubei]

+1

I think the most germane concern should be the arrival of gen2 hardware.  As we have been told in the past (so far borne out by results) that the cost to

AM for hardware is "Invincible", at least for products you can order and have hashing in a few days time. The question to ask oneself is whether this pricing invincibility will extend to gen2. It is not unlikely to assume that with the bankroll and experience that FC can order bulk levels of chips and other components in much higher numbers than most competitors, potentially in the tens of millions. On it's face, it would appear that FC can probably out-produce and outprice the competition for gen2 devices, and bring them to market in a timely manner.

It was not so long ago that FC actually held back hashing power because his share of the network hash was growing too large. Part of the strategy for hardware sales was to profit from blades he could not bring online without endangering the 50%+1 line. Currently, he seems more focused on eliminating gen1 blades that were ordered in anticipation of being needed due to anticipation of growth in global hash. That growth fell below his projections, so all new gen1 blades must go!

As FC transitions to gen2, I would expect quiet replacement of gen1 boards in his farm with gen2. This may actually be occurring right now. I expect the AM farm will be converted to gen2 and the original gen1 farm boards retasked to franchisees. Once this process is completed, the AM hash should stabilize at the 10%-15% we expect, with additional income from the franchised gen1 boards. Only then will the announcement come that gen2 boards are completed and available for sale. Additional boards will continue to be fabricated, meeting both AM hash requirements and customer purchases until the Gen3 designs are completed. Rinse, repeat.

If I am correct, we should soon see AM hash rise, drop, rise, drop, and then finally a slow but steady increase in AM hash up to around 15%. This should be the indicator that gen2 is deployed and gen2 blades will soon be available.

Let's see it my crystal ball if full of sparkles or full of crap. Time will tell.

[binaryFate]

Thanks Rival for the thoughts.
Do we know if the "batches" that were announced (200 and then 1000TH) were supposed to be gen1 or was the technology not mentioned?
If they were supposed to be gen1, that would contradict the cristal ball plan, which I love btw.

[maxl]

There are 262 TH/s are ordered/ delivered so far. And i hope the remaining ~750 TH/s are gen2. Because i never read which gen the remaining is.

[binaryFate]

There are 262 TH/s are ordered/ delivered so far.

Very precise number! Do you have a source for this?

[JimiQ84]

originally there were planned four batches (12TH/s, 50TH/s, 200TH/s, 1000TH/s). All first gen (130nm).

We are currently in deployment of the third (hashing + franchise + sold). Maybe there was change of plans, so that the fourth batch will be second gen, but I doubt it. Second gen is planned on november/december earliest - probably gonna be delayed.

[Mabsark]

There are 262 TH/s are ordered/ delivered so far.

Very precise number! Do you have a source for this?

Here:

1. 62+200=262TH/s. Earnings and profitability highly depends on the competitors and how the price range the purchasers will accept after two to three months. And please bear in mind that they are perspectives, only bonds could usually give a fixed range of profit predictions.