eleuthria
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June 10, 2014, 06:43:28 AM |
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It will take you ~18,263 days to solve a block with 32 GH/s, assuming difficulty is static. It can take you 8, 9, 10 times longer than that, or it can take you 1 second. On average, 18,263 days @ 32 GH/s. This is based on current network difficulty and assuming (wrongly) that it will not change at all during that time. Plug your speed into any mining calculator ( https://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator). Look at the per day earnings. Divide 25 by that number. That's approximately how many days it will take you to solve a block at the current network difficulty assuming it never changes. You'd be better off selling slow hardware for scrap metal and buying scratch & win tickets than trying to solo mine.
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RIP BTC Guild, April 2011 - June 2015
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Jacko
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June 10, 2014, 07:44:05 AM |
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which would give me about a 1 in 20 chance of winning a block when I start and maybe a 1 in 40 chance by the end of the month
I like your idea and I admire your appetite for risk (gambling) but I do not think you understand the math at all. Earlier you were talking about "throwing" 32 GH/s at this to see if you could solo mine a block. Your odds are nowhere near 1/40 to hit a block in the next 20 days (end of month). For simplicity, you will have 32 GH/s / 84,000,000,000 GH/s (network) X (144 (blocks per day) x 30 (days in June) ) chance of hitting a block (if it was june 1). That is not 1/40..... It is closer to 1 in a million It is a lottery ticket. That's why I called it a Lottery. I spend approximately converted from UK Sterling $22 per week on the UK lottery with odds of winning at 14 million to 1. Whats wrong with shifting that to a lottery pool with odds of 1 million to 1 for slightly less in electric costs. I have been playing the UK lottery understanding the risks due to the odds and have spent over the last 8 years $9152 in UK equivalent without even winning once. 1 million to one is cracking odds for the money. Call it a lottery pool and accept the odds and it is good in my eyes. Jacko
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Newar
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June 10, 2014, 09:02:42 AM |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=645120.0https://pay.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/235zv5/why_you_should_mine_with_replacebyfee_a/What you should do if you're a pool operator, solo miner, or mine on p2pool Replace-by-fee simply means that rather than only accepting the first transaction you see to your mempool, you accept whatever one pays the most fees. It's a simple rule that results in the most profit per block, lets users re-issue transactions with higher fees if needed, and most importantly, makes it clear to everyone that relying on unconfirmed transactions by themselves is insecure. I've written a simple replace-by-fee patch based directly on the v0.9.1 codebase. Installation is just a matter of getting my replace-by-fee-v0.9.1 branch from https://github.com/petertodd/bitcoin/tree/replace-by-fee-v0.9.1 and compiling it; you run the code just like you would normally. Unlike BitUndo it's an entirely decentralized system where the 100% of the profits for replacing one unconfirmed transaction with another goes directly to miners. The patch implements preferential peering, which means it seeks out other nodes supporting replace-by-fee to ensure you'll always be connected to like-minded peers; you don't need to -addnode a central server. While I wouldn't recommend a pool like ghash.io to install it right off the bat, if you're a miner on, say, p2pool, installing the patch carries no risk to you, and will help keep Bitcoin decentralized in the future. Could this be a consideration for a small boost in bitminer earnings?
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philipma1957
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June 10, 2014, 12:25:07 PM Last edit: June 10, 2014, 03:52:36 PM by philipma1957 |
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which would give me about a 1 in 20 chance of winning a block when I start and maybe a 1 in 40 chance by the end of the month
I like your idea and I admire your appetite for risk (gambling) but I do not think you understand the math at all. Earlier you were talking about "throwing" 32 GH/s at this to see if you could solo mine a block. Your odds are nowhere near 1/40 to hit a block in the next 20 days (end of month). For simplicity, you will have 32 GH/s / 84,000,000,000 GH/s (network) X (144 (blocks per day) x 30 (days in June) ) chance of hitting a block (if it was june 1). That is not 1/40..... It is closer to 1 in a million It is a lottery ticket. i did not say that. if you look above your post i told doc h that if he did this I would use my 1th unit for one month. at the beginning of one month your chances start out at 1/20 at the end of the month your chances will have dropped to 1/40 calculations for this are based on bit coin wisdom. one month right now at 1th earns 1.28 btc x 20 = 25 btc thats a block so right now if diff freezes running 1th gives you a 1/20 chance in catching a block. by the end of the month the odds drop to 1/40 the math for catching a block with 32gh right now is .04107 earned in a month so .04107 x 610 = 25.0527 so right now if diff froze 1 month at 32gh has a one in 610 chance of winning a block since diff maybe double the chance of winning a block by the end of the block is 1220 discouragement of this is okay by me . but I have around 2th of paid for hash bouncing around between different pools. I am not good at coding but I am really good at game theory . If you have hash power and don't use 5 to 10 % of it solo mining you are not giving yourself the best chance to profit. If you have efficient hash power using under 1 watt a hash and don't toss some of it at solo mining you are actually risking more loss then if you toss some at solo mining. As long as your hash power is earning more then the power it cost when it runs on a standard pool the math is in your favor to solo mine it. this is a fact so for me a 2 watt device per hash works until diff is 20 or 24. my power cost is 14 cents a k watt I did a lot of calculations on this. the math is good. Lets say a three digit number bet pays 500 or 600 to 1 should pay 1000 to 1 the odds are against you. Lets set it pays 1200 to 1 the odds are not against you. if you play 1 dollar a day mining in a solo pool is the second choice getting 1200 to one on a 1000 to one shot
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krazik
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June 11, 2014, 04:23:08 AM |
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MoreBloodWine
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June 11, 2014, 06:13:50 AM |
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It's work lost if the doc doesn't pay for orphans which I don't believe he does.
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To be decided...
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Newar
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June 11, 2014, 01:50:09 PM |
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It's work lost if the doc doesn't pay for orphans which I don't believe he does. IIRC he does, if you crank up one of the donation options.
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philipma1957
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June 11, 2014, 01:55:49 PM Last edit: June 11, 2014, 03:05:46 PM by philipma1957 |
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It will take you ~18,263 days to solve a block with 32 GH/s, assuming difficulty is static. It can take you 8, 9, 10 times longer than that, or it can take you 1 second. On average, 18,263 days @ 32 GH/s. This is based on current network difficulty and assuming (wrongly) that it will not change at all during that time. Plug your speed into any mining calculator ( https://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator). Look at the per day earnings. Divide 25 by that number. That's approximately how many days it will take you to solve a block at the current network difficulty assuming it never changes. You'd be better off selling slow hardware for scrap metal and buying scratch & win tickets than trying to solo mine. your wrong quite frankly I don't understand why you say this. you work with btcguild you should be pushing for a secondary solo pool for your site. your math is correct the odds are 610 to one for 1 month of mining at flat diff growth. 610 x 30 = 18300 days. that part is correct , but and here is the but.. If the gear is in your hands and it would pay the power it uses if you mine with your big pool. Then it is in your statistical advantage to mine it soloThis is a statement of fact not bullshit. This is especially true of all small gear. so any usb stick that spends 2 watts per hash or less would be better off solo mining then running in a merged pool. This would not be true of an old school asic miner .333gh stick but it is true of an icefury or nano fury stick,blue fury , bi fury, Ant u1 or u2 Frankly by not offering this option to us you are doing a disservice to us. Take a set of 5 ant miner u-1s running at 10gh and 20 watts. look at this chart. those sticks will earn under 10 dollars at a merged pool and in oct no longer pay for power. but for the same time almost 5 months I could run them solo using your math of 18300 days and running them for 142 days my odds are 142/18300 or 128 to 1 chance of a block. hmmm 128 to one have the sticks in hand I would have had about 10 usd mining in your pool. lets add the power 20 watts x 24 hours x 142 days = 68 kwatts 68 kwatts = about 10 bucks.. so 10 bucks + 10 bucks = 20 bucks lost solo mining if I don't hit a block. So for 20 bucks I get a 128 to one shot at a block of btc 128 x 20 = 2560 should be my payout whats a block of btc last I looked it is over 15000 usd. So I am 6x better off solo mining my 10gh in u-1's for the next 142 days then I am mining them in your pool. now my math is not fully fair just partially correct. Does someone see my trick of math in my example. (hint I only used correct diff for 1/2 the example) but the diff used on one side was 11.7 moving to 35.9 or about 3 to 1 change.. so my 6x better off is not true since I did not factor diff in on the solo mining side so let do that 6x / by 3x = 2 so you are 2x better off mining your u-1 sticks in a solo pool then in any major pool![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fimagizer.imageshack.us%2Fv2%2F1280x1024q90%2F850%2Fe4ve.png&t=665&c=9aeRNNogqsDl9g) buying almost any gear for sale right now does not roi…… All roi depends btc price rise none of us control btc price so it is pretty much luck if you buy a 1th machine and it roi's. I run a 1th dragon on your site it will fiat roi because I purchased it when coins were 400 now coins are 650 I will fiat profit with it. Even if your pool or Doc H's pool pays 23.5 coins and charge 1.5 coin fee it would still make sense to run some gear if it spends 2 watts or even 1.5 watts a ghash. Own 5 antminer s-1's 4 merged 1 solo is better then 5 merged pool. it shows up easier if you do bigger amounts 50 s-1's 40 merged 10 solo do the math .
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Minor Miner
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June 11, 2014, 03:14:09 PM Last edit: June 11, 2014, 07:36:27 PM by Minor Miner |
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MultiPool needs to solve a block. They are overdue and that makes me suspicious considering the 2TH/s that were on btcguild that were "unable" to process a solution that were outed a month ago. If you are multipool can you show us the last time you solved a block somewhere? Thanks.
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strongenough24
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June 11, 2014, 07:20:22 PM |
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I have a question...Multipool's website says they do not charge a fee for mining BTC. How could this be when they should be paying Bitminter? Do they get a special deal?
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jjdub7
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June 11, 2014, 09:19:42 PM |
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Doc - I should've checked before ordering, but does the client support the R-box? Got it today and am still waiting on the power supply.
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hamburgerhelper
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June 12, 2014, 12:22:55 PM |
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Doc, is it possible that multipool is cheating the pool? Koi has about the same hashrate and has solved several blocks over the last 3 days it so. Multipool has solved zero. Its odd.
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Minor Miner
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June 12, 2014, 01:40:39 PM |
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Doc, is it possible that multipool is cheating the pool? Koi has about the same hashrate and has solved several blocks over the last 3 days it so. Multipool has solved zero. Its odd.
This is something we need to be vigilant about. It was happening at BTCGuild where 2,000TH/s "did not know" they had a flaw and could not solve a block yet could provide "work" so they got their share of the pool. It is early yet, but I am certainly getting concerned which is why i posted. Multipool has had about 200TH/s at bit minter (they seem to ramp it down right after someone else solves a block for a while but then it goes back up. 200 / 84,000 (network) X 144 (blocks per day) = 0.35. Which means on average 200TH/s right now should solve a block every 3 days. They have been here how long? I think only five days but someone can correct me. At this point, it could be bad luck. But if it goes 15-24 days, I think we should vote them off the island and doc should withhold their "share". What happened at BTCGuild, is that the person "that did not know they had a flaw in their miners" received their share of the blocks BTC guild solved so everyone was shortchanged by about 20%. You can argue this a lot of ways but that is how I look at it. I still believe (and people have told me I am insane/stupid/crazy/"just do not understand") that there are flawed miners out there that are free riding on the network pools because they know they can never solo mine and solve a block. You really think someone that had the money to build the facilities to put in 2,000TH/s of miners (facilities would cost around $2-4M) AND pay for all those miners (another $1.5-3M) DID NOT PAY $5,000 for someone to write them solo mining software? Sure. That is believable. So, that would mean after solo mining and not finding a block for a few weeks, they KNEW the miners had a problem but they were "hashing", just not solving blocks. What do you do when you have $4M on the line and cannot solve a block but you show bashing power? Go to a pool and get paid for hashes from the blocks that other do solve. It is too early to say this about multi pool but I am very suspicious and watching. If they do not hit a block soon, I think I will move.
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cenicsoft
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June 12, 2014, 02:53:33 PM |
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You really think someone that had the money to build the facilities to put in 2,000TH/s of miners (facilities would cost around $2-4M) AND pay for all those miners (another $1.5-3M) DID NOT PAY $5,000 for someone to write them solo mining software? Sure. That is believable. So, that would mean after solo mining and not finding a block for a few weeks, they KNEW the miners had a problem but they were "hashing", just not solving blocks. What do you do when you have $4M on the line and cannot solve a block but you show bashing power? Go to a pool and get paid for hashes from the blocks that other do solve.
It is too early to say this about multi pool but I am very suspicious and watching. If they do not hit a block soon, I think I will move.
Multipool doesn't own their own equipment. They are a pool of miners that change between coins to mine depending upon which one is most profitable at the time. They didn't have to outlay their own equipment/hosting costs. However, it's still suspicious how all that hash wouldn't regularly solve blocks. I guess it would be theoretically possible to send along work to Bitminer, but if a block is solved keep the solved block for themselves. With that amount of hash, it would be financially worthwhile. I'm with you, if they don't solve a block every couple of days, it's too suspicious and may have to move on.
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bitwitt
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June 12, 2014, 02:56:40 PM |
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Doc, is it possible that multipool is cheating the pool? Koi has about the same hashrate and has solved several blocks over the last 3 days it so. Multipool has solved zero. Its odd.
This is something we need to be vigilant about. It was happening at BTCGuild where 2,000TH/s "did not know" they had a flaw and could not solve a block yet could provide "work" so they got their share of the pool. It is early yet, but I am certainly getting concerned which is why i posted. Multipool has had about 200TH/s at bit minter (they seem to ramp it down right after someone else solves a block for a while but then it goes back up. 200 / 84,000 (network) X 144 (blocks per day) = 0.35. Which means on average 200TH/s right now should solve a block every 3 days. They have been here how long? I think only five days but someone can correct me. At this point, it could be bad luck. But if it goes 15-24 days, I think we should vote them off the island and doc should withhold their "share". What happened at BTCGuild, is that the person "that did not know they had a flaw in their miners" received their share of the blocks BTC guild solved so everyone was shortchanged by about 20%. You can argue this a lot of ways but that is how I look at it. I still believe (and people have told me I am insane/stupid/crazy/"just do not understand") that there are flawed miners out there that are free riding on the network pools because they know they can never solo mine and solve a block. You really think someone that had the money to build the facilities to put in 2,000TH/s of miners (facilities would cost around $2-4M) AND pay for all those miners (another $1.5-3M) DID NOT PAY $5,000 for someone to write them solo mining software? Sure. That is believable. So, that would mean after solo mining and not finding a block for a few weeks, they KNEW the miners had a problem but they were "hashing", just not solving blocks. What do you do when you have $4M on the line and cannot solve a block but you show bashing power? Go to a pool and get paid for hashes from the blocks that other do solve. It is too early to say this about multi pool but I am very suspicious and watching. If they do not hit a block soon, I think I will move. I'm thinking the same as you. Going to give this until 6/15 and then change pools. I can't afford to give away 20% of 4 ths of work.
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ichtus27
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June 12, 2014, 02:59:15 PM |
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Aaaargh, got my first s1.... but does not listen to the (root)password.. can not login. ![Cry](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cry.gif)
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silverthornne
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SelfPay - ICO PRE SALE - huge Profit !
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June 12, 2014, 03:14:43 PM |
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Aaaargh, got my first s1.... but does not listen to the (root)password.. can not login. ![Cry](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cry.gif) They have a reset button. Should set it back to factory defaults so the password works.
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DrHaribo (OP)
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June 12, 2014, 04:19:08 PM |
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I guess it would be theoretically possible to send along work to Bitminer, but if a block is solved keep the solved block for themselves. With that amount of hash, it would be financially worthwhile.
You can't keep the coins from the block for yourself. That is impossible. But you can throw the solved block away. This is what the broken mining software was doing with BTCGuild.
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hamburgerhelper
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June 12, 2014, 04:32:35 PM |
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Doc, is it possible that multipool is cheating the pool? Koi has about the same hashrate and has solved several blocks over the last 3 days it so. Multipool has solved zero. Its odd.
This is something we need to be vigilant about. It was happening at BTCGuild where 2,000TH/s "did not know" they had a flaw and could not solve a block yet could provide "work" so they got their share of the pool. It is early yet, but I am certainly getting concerned which is why i posted. Multipool has had about 200TH/s at bit minter (they seem to ramp it down right after someone else solves a block for a while but then it goes back up. 200 / 84,000 (network) X 144 (blocks per day) = 0.35. Which means on average 200TH/s right now should solve a block every 3 days. They have been here how long? I think only five days but someone can correct me. At this point, it could be bad luck. But if it goes 15-24 days, I think we should vote them off the island and doc should withhold their "share". What happened at BTCGuild, is that the person "that did not know they had a flaw in their miners" received their share of the blocks BTC guild solved so everyone was shortchanged by about 20%. You can argue this a lot of ways but that is how I look at it. I still believe (and people have told me I am insane/stupid/crazy/"just do not understand") that there are flawed miners out there that are free riding on the network pools because they know they can never solo mine and solve a block. You really think someone that had the money to build the facilities to put in 2,000TH/s of miners (facilities would cost around $2-4M) AND pay for all those miners (another $1.5-3M) DID NOT PAY $5,000 for someone to write them solo mining software? Sure. That is believable. So, that would mean after solo mining and not finding a block for a few weeks, they KNEW the miners had a problem but they were "hashing", just not solving blocks. What do you do when you have $4M on the line and cannot solve a block but you show bashing power? Go to a pool and get paid for hashes from the blocks that other do solve. It is too early to say this about multi pool but I am very suspicious and watching. If they do not hit a block soon, I think I will move. I think you're right that they've been on the pool for 5 days. I doubt that Doc can withhold their share because they probably have a payout threshold which results in getting paid frequently. IF they are pulling a fast one on the pool, then the key thing will be for Doc to take action to determine the nature of the fake work and protect the pool against this kind of fraud. Simply jumping ship is only a viable option in the short term. If multipool has figured out a way to submit fake work that passes as real, then others will soon enough. At that point, no pool will be safe from this kind of fraud.
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ichtus27
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June 12, 2014, 07:30:30 PM |
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the person i bought it from forgot that he changed the password, running and overclock.. loving it.. second project.. getting a second s1 ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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