rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[lemonte]

Thanks for the advice, she hates the smell, but doesn't mind the taste on my lips. What cigars would you recommend I smoke and give to close friends and relatives?

Country: cigars are either Cuban or non-Cuban. Cuban largest brands are Cohiba (best), Montecristo, Partagas, Romeo & Juliet, plus many others.

Thickness: 50-60 gauge is the most enjoyable, about 40 is the daytime cigar, 30 is a small one and 20 is cigarette thickness.

Length: does not matter as much as thickness, so Robusto (short but thick) is generally good.

For a special occasion, Cohiba Robustos/Siglo VI or even Cohiba Behike works perfectly. For guests, you can give cheaper R&J Wide Churchills that really pack a punch

Thank you, I have been smoking Montecristo's lately, they are my favourite!

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[Roy Badami]

- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation

Risto, would you be willing to say whether this was related to Bitcoin transactions?

I'm sure we all fear the possibility of taking profits from our Bitcoin (or Monero) investments, only to trigger a SAR and have our fiat accounts frozen while the authorities investigate the transaction...

I'm scrupulous about record keeping so that I can prove that everything is above board should the need arise, but that doesn't stop the huge inconvenience that results from investigations like this....

roy

[BitchicksHusband]

I try to have long term goals but it's very discouraging when you can't have any savings since it goes to pay basic needs, so you cannot start any sort of meaningful life proyect. I've already given up on owning my own place and bringing girls there and generally living like a normal healthy human being. Im stuck in my parents house for life until I inherit it or some shit.

When I was 12 I realized I need to get to Helsinki or I would be stuck in a village where the distance to the nearest elementary school is 25 km and employment was about 30%. (My brother currently runs the farm and both parents are working outside in addition, to make the ends meet.) So I needed to undergo the following, among others:

- Working on farms (several employers), potatoes, picking strawberries, manufacturing & selling products, general farmwork, to raise money
- Buying and playing every title of the Sid Meier's Civilization series to enhance strategic thinking
- Saving money whenever possible, especially never buying a drink (even at my own sophomore party), always drinking from the toilet tap, going a whole day without drinking if tap water wasn't available, walking up to 8 km habitually just to save money, never buying clothes or food until 18
- Investing in stocks in the age of 16, in Russian market when 18, it went down 75% in 2 weeks since I bought
- Biking 22 km/day instead of taking a subsidized bus, to save money; hopping off bus 1 km early because the fare was cheaper
- Delivering spam to ppl's mailbox, twice per week, up to 830 mailboxes at a time, while trying to study
- Scavenging the trashbins for food, living up to 6 weeks without even once buying groceries, during uni
- Falling victim to multiple scams and money-making schemes
- First company went bankrupt and due to good luck, I did not end up losing all
- Second company was still making loss after 5 years, so essentially I subsidized it with my time and lived off wife's salary
- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation
- Only occasionally had a car or two (or up to 8 when we had a car rental agency)
- Never owned real estate before buying the castle
...
- Making my first million at the age of 29, a mere 17 years after making the commitment to do so.

=> Make a target and stick to it. The unalterable laws of statistics favor the determined, if you just roll the ball enough many times

17 years sounds like much, but really if you are now 23, you'll then be 40. Not everyone who is 40 has a million euros! Also you are older in the beginning, so it's possible you can do it ~4 years sooner just for that reason. Then the general speed of things has increased a lot, shave off an additional 2 years. So at 34, you'll be a millionaire!

What people need to see is that most millionaires make their money by NOT SPENDING.  Risto demonstrates this mentality throughout his post.  Saving all your money gives you money to invest when opportunities come around.

[bobabouey2]

It comes basically down to the question if they're only selling Bitcoin they actually do have. Is that even allowed to sell more Bitcoin than they actually own in this case?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I beleive that they are only able to offer as much as they own. This is why I made the point about how they aren't going to be putting up their own coins so all etf coins will have to be bought from the general market.

The trust is going to hold bitcoin equal to the value of the ETF securities it issues, less expenses.  

The way the trust will do this is there will be "Authorized Participants" who will interact with the trust.  The trust will offer ETF securities to the Authorized participants in exchange for bitcoin.  The minimum transaction is a "basket" equal to 10,000 bitcoin and 50,000 ETF shares.  So each ETF share will be worth .2 bitcoin.

There will be "Seed Baskets" whereby one or more Authorized Participants will commit to exchanging bitcoin for ETF shares at a certain amount.  This is essentially the "IPO" of the ETF.  The Authorized Participants will then make those ETF shares available for trading on the Nasdaq.  

Pursuant to the Agreement, the bitcoin the trust receives may only be: "(1) held by the Trust, (2) transferred to Authorized Participants in connection with the redemption of Baskets; (3) transferred to pay the Sponsor’s Fee; or (4) transferred as needed to pay the Trust’s expenses not assumed by the Sponsor."  http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514257706/d721187ds1a.htm

So other than expenses, and (2) above, the trust will hold the bitcoin.

What is (2) above?  (2) is a reference to another way the Authorized Participants are different than retail investors in the ETF.  In addition to "creating" new ETF shares by tendering bitcoin, they may tender ETF shares (again, with same minimum basket size) to the fund in exchange for bitcoin.  

The ability of Authorized Participants to create and redeem ETF shares, in exchange for bitcoin is what manages the supply and demand of shares after the initial transaction.  The goal is that the ETF share price is relatively close to the Net Asset Value ("NAV") per share of ETF (equal to the the value of bitcoin held less expenses).  If the ETF price is above the NAV, then Authorized Participants will sell more bitcoin to the trust, and more ETF shares will be issued, which will increase the supply and push the price back close to the NAV.  And vice versa if NAV is above the ETF.  Or at least that is the goal.

This is the same process for many ETFs that are backed by an asset, including gold.  However, not all asset-based ETFs are backed by the asset, others may be based on derivatives designed to track gold prices.  And then, of course, there are many other derivative transactions related to gold or other assets that may or may not be backed by gold.  This is why the total notional value of gold ETFs and other securities may exceed the total value of gold in existence.

TLDR: Winklevoss fund will be backed by bitcoin.  Many asset based ETF, including gold ones, are also back by the asset.  Others aren't, which is why the total notional "paper" amount of gold that is traded may exceed the amount of physical gold in existence.

[bassclef]

Have a look at the 12h/1d chart, from June's runup ($680 top) to now.

It resembles a smaller version of bitcoin's larger "bubble" cycle, which is repeated all over in digital currency land and in varying sizes if you look, and of course represents repeated actions of market participants in response to external events and their own psychology. It's really more of a drawn-out correction cycle as the value is always overshot by excited buyers, then corrects in waves as the market seeks a fair price.

With that in mind there is definitely room for more downside (550-560) as we are in final capitulation of this cycle, a heavy distribution (selling) phase where morale is lowest. Then the cycle repeats again with a large accumulation (buying) phase. When that will happen I'm not sure, early/mid August is a pretty good guess.

[Biodom]

I try to have long term goals but it's very discouraging when you can't have any savings since it goes to pay basic needs, so you cannot start any sort of meaningful life proyect. I've already given up on owning my own place and bringing girls there and generally living like a normal healthy human being. Im stuck in my parents house for life until I inherit it or some shit.

When I was 12 I realized I need to get to Helsinki or I would be stuck in a village where the distance to the nearest elementary school is 25 km and employment was about 30%. (My brother currently runs the farm and both parents are working outside in addition, to make the ends meet.) So I needed to undergo the following, among others:

- Working on farms (several employers), potatoes, picking strawberries, manufacturing & selling products, general farmwork, to raise money
- Buying and playing every title of the Sid Meier's Civilization series to enhance strategic thinking
- Saving money whenever possible, especially never buying a drink (even at my own sophomore party), always drinking from the toilet tap, going a whole day without drinking if tap water wasn't available, walking up to 8 km habitually just to save money, never buying clothes or food until 18
- Investing in stocks in the age of 16, in Russian market when 18, it went down 75% in 2 weeks since I bought
- Biking 22 km/day instead of taking a subsidized bus, to save money; hopping off bus 1 km early because the fare was cheaper
- Delivering spam to ppl's mailbox, twice per week, up to 830 mailboxes at a time, while trying to study
- Scavenging the trashbins for food, living up to 6 weeks without even once buying groceries, during uni
- Falling victim to multiple scams and money-making schemes
- First company went bankrupt and due to good luck, I did not end up losing all
- Second company was still making loss after 5 years, so essentially I subsidized it with my time and lived off wife's salary
- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation
- Only occasionally had a car or two (or up to 8 when we had a car rental agency)
- Never owned real estate before buying the castle
...
- Making my first million at the age of 29, a mere 17 years after making the commitment to do so.

=> Make a target and stick to it. The unalterable laws of statistics favor the determined, if you just roll the ball enough many times

17 years sounds like much, but really if you are now 23, you'll then be 40. Not everyone who is 40 has a million euros! Also you are older in the beginning, so it's possible you can do it ~4 years sooner just for that reason. Then the general speed of things has increased a lot, shave off an additional 2 years. So at 34, you'll be a millionaire!

What people need to see is that most millionaires make their money by NOT SPENDING.  Risto demonstrates this mentality throughout his post.  Saving all your money gives you money to invest when opportunities come around.

Interest in bitcoin almost forces you to become a "crazy" saver. Apart from regular spending and regular retirement account, I started to save almost 100% "savable" extra in bitcoin because between RE, fiat retirement funds and soc security, i figured that I am OK with non-bitcoin savings, but need to increase bitcoin holdings as fast as I can, so a relatively large proportion of my earnings is currently going to btc in one way or another. I decided not to sell fiat stock holdings for bitcoin so far.

[ensurance982]

Have a look at the 12h/1d chart, from June's runup ($680 top) to now.

It resembles a smaller version of bitcoin's larger "bubble" cycle, which is repeated all over in digital currency land and in varying sizes if you look, and of course represents repeated actions of market participants in response to external events and their own psychology. It's really more of a drawn-out correction cycle as the value is always overshot by excited buyers, then corrects in waves as the market seeks a fair price.

With that in mind there is definitely room for more downside (550-560) as we are in final capitulation of this cycle, a heavy distribution (selling) phase where morale is lowest. Then the cycle repeats again with a large accumulation (buying) phase. When that will happen I'm not sure, early/mid August is a pretty good guess.

Ah, finally some quality analysis around here again, in between castle and cigar talk (Not that I don't like a good castle talk)
I think you may be correct. Although I'm having difficulties to see a clear structure of the small bubble you're talking about. I think the pattern isn't that clear.

[bassclef]

Have a look at the 12h/1d chart, from June's runup ($680 top) to now.

It resembles a smaller version of bitcoin's larger "bubble" cycle, which is repeated all over in digital currency land and in varying sizes if you look, and of course represents repeated actions of market participants in response to external events and their own psychology. It's really more of a drawn-out correction cycle as the value is always overshot by excited buyers, then corrects in waves as the market seeks a fair price.

With that in mind there is definitely room for more downside (550-560) as we are in final capitulation of this cycle, a heavy distribution (selling) phase where morale is lowest. Then the cycle repeats again with a large accumulation (buying) phase. When that will happen I'm not sure, early/mid August is a pretty good guess.

Ah, finally some quality analysis around here again, in between castle and cigar talk (Not that I don't like a good castle talk)
I think you may be correct. Although I'm having difficulties to see a clear structure of the small bubble you're talking about. I think the pattern isn't that clear.

I see it, although I've been intrigued with this particular pattern for a long time.  A simpler way to look at it is a pennant continuation with a dip at the end. There's usually a 50-60% initial correction from the top, a final bull run that ultimately fails, then a long drawn out bear market with final capitulation. And of course the longer the timescale the more volume involved and the more weight the analysis carries. I mean we could rocket up tomorrow but I'd watch for a bottom to form in the 6h/4h charts first. At this time I'm not convinced.

[DjPxH]

Have a look at the 12h/1d chart, from June's runup ($680 top) to now.

It resembles a smaller version of bitcoin's larger "bubble" cycle, which is repeated all over in digital currency land and in varying sizes if you look, and of course represents repeated actions of market participants in response to external events and their own psychology. It's really more of a drawn-out correction cycle as the value is always overshot by excited buyers, then corrects in waves as the market seeks a fair price.

With that in mind there is definitely room for more downside (550-560) as we are in final capitulation of this cycle, a heavy distribution (selling) phase where morale is lowest. Then the cycle repeats again with a large accumulation (buying) phase. When that will happen I'm not sure, early/mid August is a pretty good guess.

Ah, finally some quality analysis around here again, in between castle and cigar talk (Not that I don't like a good castle talk)
I think you may be correct. Although I'm having difficulties to see a clear structure of the small bubble you're talking about. I think the pattern isn't that clear.

I see it, although I've been intrigued with this particular pattern for a long time.  A simpler way to look at it is a pennant continuation with a dip at the end. There's usually a 50-60% initial correction from the top, a final bull run that ultimately fails, then a long drawn out bear market with final capitulation. And of course the longer the timescale the more volume involved and the more weight the analysis carries. I mean we could rocket up tomorrow but I'd watch for a bottom to form in the 6h/4h charts first. At this time I'm not convinced.

I also think this is interesting! Keep us posted when you think the time has come!

[RyNinDaCleM]

It comes basically down to the question if they're only selling Bitcoin they actually do have. Is that even allowed to sell more Bitcoin than they actually own in this case?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I beleive that they are only able to offer as much as they own. This is why I made the point about how they aren't going to be putting up their own coins so all etf coins will have to be bought from the general market.

This would be correct!
First off, only the FED can operate on fractional reserve and get away with it. In the financial market world, that would be more akin to a bucket shop or outright fraud
Number 2, If they sell unbacked funds, then it is effectively a CFD which is illegal in the US. No paper markets here.
Number 3, They will have to offer their own coins, because that is the backing for their ETF. It will have to be in place in order to begin trading.
There is no guarantee that they will ever buy more. If they were as sure as many around here that they will need to buy more, then why wouldn't they be buying it right now while the price is so "cheap"? Why wait until the ETF drives prices into the stratosphere? Because they aren't so certain it'll drive prices up. They aren't certain that they will sell every coin they hold. There are no guarantees on wall street. Simple as that

[JayJuanGee]

I try to have long term goals but it's very discouraging when you can't have any savings since it goes to pay basic needs, so you cannot start any sort of meaningful life proyect. I've already given up on owning my own place and bringing girls there and generally living like a normal healthy human being. Im stuck in my parents house for life until I inherit it or some shit.

When I was 12 I realized I need to get to Helsinki or I would be stuck in a village where the distance to the nearest elementary school is 25 km and employment was about 30%. (My brother currently runs the farm and both parents are working outside in addition, to make the ends meet.) So I needed to undergo the following, among others:

- Working on farms (several employers), potatoes, picking strawberries, manufacturing & selling products, general farmwork, to raise money
- Buying and playing every title of the Sid Meier's Civilization series to enhance strategic thinking
- Saving money whenever possible, especially never buying a drink (even at my own sophomore party), always drinking from the toilet tap, going a whole day without drinking if tap water wasn't available, walking up to 8 km habitually just to save money, never buying clothes or food until 18
- Investing in stocks in the age of 16, in Russian market when 18, it went down 75% in 2 weeks since I bought
- Biking 22 km/day instead of taking a subsidized bus, to save money; hopping off bus 1 km early because the fare was cheaper
- Delivering spam to ppl's mailbox, twice per week, up to 830 mailboxes at a time, while trying to study
- Scavenging the trashbins for food, living up to 6 weeks without even once buying groceries, during uni
- Falling victim to multiple scams and money-making schemes
- First company went bankrupt and due to good luck, I did not end up losing all
- Second company was still making loss after 5 years, so essentially I subsidized it with my time and lived off wife's salary
- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation
- Only occasionally had a car or two (or up to 8 when we had a car rental agency)
- Never owned real estate before buying the castle
...
- Making my first million at the age of 29, a mere 17 years after making the commitment to do so.

=> Make a target and stick to it. The unalterable laws of statistics favor the determined, if you just roll the ball enough many times

17 years sounds like much, but really if you are now 23, you'll then be 40. Not everyone who is 40 has a million euros! Also you are older in the beginning, so it's possible you can do it ~4 years sooner just for that reason. Then the general speed of things has increased a lot, shave off an additional 2 years. So at 34, you'll be a millionaire!

Thats a great read!

I am in a similar situation, working my ass off in 2 jobs while giving tutorials in university and trying to finish my studies. And investing/saving every penny i can into Bitcoins.

I am not doing it as extreme as you did, but i only need 250€ per month - i think thats a good number. Every € above that number goes into Bitcoins.

GiveBTCpls, i have a lot friends like you. Blaming everyone else or the universe for their situation, but in reality its always their own fault.

For example, they re paying 40€/month for their smartphone contracts, and then they are surprised, that they have no money.

If you are paying more than 10€ per month for your phone, well then you are one of them.

I believe that we do NOT have enough facts about GiveBTCpls to know for sure that he has put himself into his current predicament.   Also, I believe that people can have runs of bad luck and very difficult obstacles to overcome.  NONETHELESS, it does seem that GiveBTCpls has demonstrated what seems to be a considerable amount of negative and defeatist thinking and projections of his current predicament. 

I do agree; however, that GiveBTCpls needs to work on making himself a more sympathetic person by taking more responsibility over his destiny.  There is NO guarantee that his creation and maintenance of positive actions is going to result in positive outcomes;however, it seems that he needs to devise a variety of plans and alternative plans in order to attempt to make progress towards tangible goals.  I believe that his assertion that he is working to accumulate BTC - and striving to achieve at least 1BTC on or before the end of 2014 is a step in the right direction.  He also said that he is involved in course work, too... NONETHELESS, he  may need to create some additional plans and back up plans and keep working towards his plans in order to achieve financial freedom.

Personally, it is my belief that financial freedom DOES NOT come from any specific number (such as 1 million euros or 100 BTC); however, it seems to come from a person being able to comfortably live within his/her means - and having a passive income that allows for such, would be better than having to work... or at least whatever work that a guy/gal does is on his own terms and b/c  s/he wants to... NOT b/c he has to in order to survive.

There seems to be a variety of definitions and perceptions of what is financial freedom, and I tend to believe that a person can still retain some obligations and responsibilities while maintaining financial freedom (and where those lines are drawn is gonna vary from person to person).

[JayJuanGee]

I try to have long term goals but it's very discouraging when you can't have any savings since it goes to pay basic needs, so you cannot start any sort of meaningful life proyect. I've already given up on owning my own place and bringing girls there and generally living like a normal healthy human being. Im stuck in my parents house for life until I inherit it or some shit.

When I was 12 I realized I need to get to Helsinki or I would be stuck in a village where the distance to the nearest elementary school is 25 km and employment was about 30%. (My brother currently runs the farm and both parents are working outside in addition, to make the ends meet.) So I needed to undergo the following, among others:

- Working on farms (several employers), potatoes, picking strawberries, manufacturing & selling products, general farmwork, to raise money
- Buying and playing every title of the Sid Meier's Civilization series to enhance strategic thinking
- Saving money whenever possible, especially never buying a drink (even at my own sophomore party), always drinking from the toilet tap, going a whole day without drinking if tap water wasn't available, walking up to 8 km habitually just to save money, never buying clothes or food until 18
- Investing in stocks in the age of 16, in Russian market when 18, it went down 75% in 2 weeks since I bought
- Biking 22 km/day instead of taking a subsidized bus, to save money; hopping off bus 1 km early because the fare was cheaper
- Delivering spam to ppl's mailbox, twice per week, up to 830 mailboxes at a time, while trying to study
- Scavenging the trashbins for food, living up to 6 weeks without even once buying groceries, during uni
- Falling victim to multiple scams and money-making schemes
- First company went bankrupt and due to good luck, I did not end up losing all
- Second company was still making loss after 5 years, so essentially I subsidized it with my time and lived off wife's salary
- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation
- Only occasionally had a car or two (or up to 8 when we had a car rental agency)
- Never owned real estate before buying the castle
...
- Making my first million at the age of 29, a mere 17 years after making the commitment to do so.

=> Make a target and stick to it. The unalterable laws of statistics favor the determined, if you just roll the ball enough many times

17 years sounds like much, but really if you are now 23, you'll then be 40. Not everyone who is 40 has a million euros! Also you are older in the beginning, so it's possible you can do it ~4 years sooner just for that reason. Then the general speed of things has increased a lot, shave off an additional 2 years. So at 34, you'll be a millionaire!

Interesting unfolding of your life, the part I don't get is, how did you from there to making 1 million exactly? And how im going to be a millonaire at 34 specifically? Also im 25 soon. Im also an autist, I need specific step by step instructions to function. I didn't chose to be born like this, is just the way I percieve the world. Ironically, im really bad at programing, which should be a benefit of being autist. Not even that, lol.
The only way I see being a millonaire at 34 is if BTC goes to like 50K per coin, otherwise unless something else lucky happens, it's not gonna happen, realistically speaking and given the current situation.

I agree with your thoughts about things do NOT just happen.  And, in this regard, when rpetila is providing you a vision of being a millionaire at 34 years old, then that is just pie in the sky.   Surely, each of us have our limitations -  therefore, you gotta strive to develop visions and plans to stress you positive attributes and to work off of your strengths and attempting to overcome or at least to minimize some of your weaknesses.  No one plan is gonna work the same for all people, and therefore, you need to strive to identify areas in which you can meaningfully contribute and/or to add value and/or to receive compensation.  You can also strive to get a hold of self-help books or to get some of these resources off the internet or go to libraries in order to develop your skills and your thinking and your plan and your direction and your follow through and your keeping track of your progress and your inspiring yourself and others to be inspired by you.

EDIT:  BTW... I am also bothered frequently by this positive thinking mumbo jumbo; however, you still need to develop steps to improve your likelihood for success, and even then, there are NO guarantees that you will be successful.. except in your own mind about having had striven and having had overcome some of the obstacles in your path.

[JayJuanGee]

For example, they re paying 40€/month for their smartphone contracts, and then they are surprised, that they have no money.

If you are paying more than 10€ per month for your phone, well then you are one of them.

Phone contract expenses are not the worst, there are people who complains about not having money while spending 200€/month on cigarettes...

Never smoked before I was a millionaire, not even once (except in the army when I once got two free cigs).

...but NOW my phone contract is 50€+ and 500-1000€/month go to cigars, plus the car is 1000€+ and then the castle expenses

I think it all boils down to the understanding of cash flow and exponential function.

Remember also that science is pretty clear that smoking is NOT good for your health, and some people should NEVER smoke (even if rich) b/c they are NOT sufficiently genetically gifted.  Risto, you seem to be one of these who should NOT smoke.  In this regard, it does little to NO good for you personally to have acquired sufficient wealth to be financially independent - but to cause health conditions upon yourself in order that you cannot meaningfully enjoy such accumulated wealth.  Accordingly, eating good expensive and healthy food is important - but cigs should NOT be part of that - especially if one has health ailments.

[JayJuanGee]

I try to have long term goals but it's very discouraging when you can't have any savings since it goes to pay basic needs, so you cannot start any sort of meaningful life proyect. I've already given up on owning my own place and bringing girls there and generally living like a normal healthy human being. Im stuck in my parents house for life until I inherit it or some shit.

When I was 12 I realized I need to get to Helsinki or I would be stuck in a village where the distance to the nearest elementary school is 25 km and employment was about 30%. (My brother currently runs the farm and both parents are working outside in addition, to make the ends meet.) So I needed to undergo the following, among others:

- Working on farms (several employers), potatoes, picking strawberries, manufacturing & selling products, general farmwork, to raise money
- Buying and playing every title of the Sid Meier's Civilization series to enhance strategic thinking
- Saving money whenever possible, especially never buying a drink (even at my own sophomore party), always drinking from the toilet tap, going a whole day without drinking if tap water wasn't available, walking up to 8 km habitually just to save money, never buying clothes or food until 18
- Investing in stocks in the age of 16, in Russian market when 18, it went down 75% in 2 weeks since I bought
- Biking 22 km/day instead of taking a subsidized bus, to save money; hopping off bus 1 km early because the fare was cheaper
- Delivering spam to ppl's mailbox, twice per week, up to 830 mailboxes at a time, while trying to study
- Scavenging the trashbins for food, living up to 6 weeks without even once buying groceries, during uni
- Falling victim to multiple scams and money-making schemes
- First company went bankrupt and due to good luck, I did not end up losing all
- Second company was still making loss after 5 years, so essentially I subsidized it with my time and lived off wife's salary
- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation
- Only occasionally had a car or two (or up to 8 when we had a car rental agency)
- Never owned real estate before buying the castle
...
- Making my first million at the age of 29, a mere 17 years after making the commitment to do so.

=> Make a target and stick to it. The unalterable laws of statistics favor the determined, if you just roll the ball enough many times

17 years sounds like much, but really if you are now 23, you'll then be 40. Not everyone who is 40 has a million euros! Also you are older in the beginning, so it's possible you can do it ~4 years sooner just for that reason. Then the general speed of things has increased a lot, shave off an additional 2 years. So at 34, you'll be a millionaire!

What people need to see is that most millionaires make their money by NOT SPENDING.  Risto demonstrates this mentality throughout his post.  Saving all your money gives you money to invest when opportunities come around.

Yes, living well within your means and investing the savings into income generating vehicles.

[rpietila]

- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation

Risto, would you be willing to say whether this was related to Bitcoin transactions?

Investment silver, actually. Or, more specifically, speaking out concerning the liquidity squeeze in 2008.

[rpietila]

I have a shitty blackberry and I never make calls, I only use Whatsapp so I pay about 6€ monthly for my contract. I don't smoke, drink or go out partying. I barely go out because I can't pay for the train to begin with.

So like I said, my only scape that I see right now, realistically, is if Bitcoin goes much higher in the next 10 years. So unless this was it and the big gains already happened, im pretty much fucked, unless totally out of my control lucky events unfold.

I have a dozen vacancies available in my hotel in Estonia. It doesn't look like your quality of life would suffer even if you became our room cleaner. You would get paid 400 euros/month + bed. Food is cheap and wifi included. Our business center has a computer with 15" monitor. You would mainly interact with btc people in all levels 10, 100, 1000, 10000 btc, including devs. Caught stealing => instant dismissal. Caught lying => one warning. Caught being lazy doing appointed tasks => two warnings. Possibility to advance in the career up to hotel manager level. Hotel manager gets about 4000 euros + perks.

This is open for everyone, I will later post the details about employee levels, work tasks and compensation scheme.

A true equal opportunity, rags to riches thing reminiscient of the 1880s, which coincidentally was the latest golden age in the castle also

[ensurance982]

I have a shitty blackberry and I never make calls, I only use Whatsapp so I pay about 6€ monthly for my contract. I don't smoke, drink or go out partying. I barely go out because I can't pay for the train to begin with.

So like I said, my only scape that I see right now, realistically, is if Bitcoin goes much higher in the next 10 years. So unless this was it and the big gains already happened, im pretty much fucked, unless totally out of my control lucky events unfold.

I have a dozen vacancies available in my hotel in Estonia. It doesn't look like your quality of life would suffer even if you became our room cleaner. You would get paid 400 euros/month + bed. Food is cheap and wifi included. Our business center has a computer with 15" monitor. You would mainly interact with btc people in all levels 10, 100, 1000, 10000 btc, including devs. Caught stealing => instant dismissal. Caught lying => one warning. Caught being lazy doing appointed tasks => two warnings. Possibility to advance in the career up to hotel manager level. Hotel manager gets about 4000 euros + perks.

This is open for everyone, I will later post the details about employee levels, work tasks and compensation scheme.

A true equal opportunity, rags to riches thing reminiscient of the 1880s, which coincidentally was the latest golden age in the castle also

But what languages do you have to be able to speak? I suppose it's not enough to speak English fluently?

[zby]

rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Everyone is on vacation while we reached -0.5 Log from the S.reeds trendline

It's already 30 weeks after last ATH (last one ,,consolidation period'' took 27 weeks)
 
If market would repeat itself identically we would need one more high volume sell-of to trigger run-up, if I made right assumptions?

Shameless repost of my new research, originally in the Trendline thread:

I just updated my personal sheet tracking these things. The parameters of that one:
- flat price 0.005 assumed until Mt.Gox opens
- for 7/2010-2012, Mt.Gox prices used
- for 2013, three exchanges
- for 2014, Bitstamp only
- daily VWAP
- first day 2009-1-3, the first day of Bitcoin; last day 2014-7-9, the 2014th day of Bitcoin

The exponential trendline for this time:
USD/BTC = exp(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * D), D being the number of days

R^2 = 0.934183

The trendline is at $1583.

At $623, we are currently -0.405 units below the trend.

For comparison, the max we ever went below the trend prior to the first 2013 runup, was -0.573.
Prior to the second 2013 runup, -0.341.


The maximum downside (greatest drop in price experienced ever after) after a day when price has already been at a low of -0.4 or lower, is -19%, experienced in 2012-10-5 to 2012-10-26, when the price dropped from $12.75 to $10.31.

This is comparable to the price going from $623 to $504 this month. This would put us on par with the maximum historical downside from already such a low point as $623 represents in the trendline.

I will not go to the upside calculations now, just leave the closing remark:


TL;DR: Historically, buying at a price such as this has represented a very low risk entry point with very limited downside in dollar terms.

Historically, selling at a price such as this (for any other purpose than covering immediate needs) has been counterproductive, as it is very likely that you will get a better or at least not much worse a deal; 1, 2, 3, 6, or any number of months in the future.

[ensurance982]

Yeah, would like some input from risto on this, as well. Already wondered a few weeks ago if the chart still holds or if something has changes in the meantime. I only knew about the version from winter 2013 I guess.

[zby]

21 days after that it should be something like:

perl -e 'print 10**(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * 2035)'
1818.10934887609