rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[David Rabahy]

I have both non-retirement and retirement investments.  If/when the rules for retirement investments are changed then we will have to evaluate the new rules and take action accordingly, e.g. withdraw despite penalties, etc.  As trouble rises then investment choices need to be adjusted.  Do you have specific investment advise based on your world view?

[iamback]

I don't have specific advice, but generally my thought is don't wait until the "writing on the wall" is so clear that everyone wants to cash out, because the authorities will likely confiscate as they sense a stampede out. The retirement funds are already targeted in government white papers. They do not think that is your money.

Perhaps the public retirement funds are the largest target, and perhaps only the wealthy private retirement accounts make sense to expropriate. I will go find a nestmann.com blog about that.

Edit: http://www.nestmann.com/why-the-feds-wont-confiscate-your-retirement-plan-but-they-will-do-this

[David Rabahy]

It seems to me, since the Roth IRA funds have already been taxed they are at less risk as compared to traditional IRAs which haven't been taxed yet.

[iamback]

Edit: http://www.nestmann.com/why-the-feds-wont-confiscate-your-retirement-plan-but-they-will-do-this

Nestmann's logic appears to be flawed, because:

http://www.epi.org/publication/retirement-inequality-chartbook/

In 2010, households in the top income-fifth accounted for 72 percent of total savings in retirement accounts (Figure 19).

72% of 4.4 trillion is a significant amount for the government to expropriate and if it will only affect roughly 63/5 = 13 million voters (actually probably less voters because wealth is non-linearly power law distributed not uniform).

So IMO you don't want to get rich in Bitcoin in a Roth. Don't forget about clawbacks. Withdrawing before a change might not exempt you, as clawbacks can be politically justified as going after the rich who were trying to front run the law in order to avoid paying their fair share of the burden.

The key to sliding into the abyss is as the 80% of the people are bankrupted by the deflation, then there is no hope for the remaining 20% as the rabid masses go for the "tax the rich". But then there is nothing left to tax because taxing the rich implodes the economy and then the cancer turns on the masses and culls them (gas chambers, wars, etc).

It seems to me, since the Roth IRA funds have already been taxed they are at less risk as compared to traditional IRAs which haven't been taxed yet.

Governments typically force all retirement funds to invest in sovereign bonds during a sovereign bond or fiscal crisis, e.g. afair Poland and Argentina have already nationalized the pensions.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/18/pending-pension-crisis-they-are-only-a-promise/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/22/pension-funds-being-taken-to-fund-infrastructure/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/29/cycles-obamas-tax-free-bonds/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/14/the-three-bombshells-tucked-inside-the-continuing-resolution-to-fund-the-govt/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/obamacare-the-investment-tax/

The only shelter will be tangible assets for long-term capital. Forget buying and selling. They will take 50% of that very soon. The strategy is to realize we are looking at the collapse of government by implosion as has been the case with every major core economy in history. So hang on – this will be an interesting ride.

[David Rabahy]

Guns and soup?  Too terrible to contemplate.  I will fallback on basic skills and hope cooperatives arise.

[coinits]

Guns and soup?  Too terrible to contemplate.  I will fallback on basic skills and hope cooperatives arise.

Good point as long as everyone is trustworthy. Would hate to have to off the fucker that stole my cornbread!

[EatonABooger]

Guns and soup?  Too terrible to contemplate.  I will fallback on basic skills and hope cooperatives arise.

this is why I started raising chickens a couple years ago (gaining a skill with little effort and big payback).  a easy animal to care for and converts bugs and simple fora into high protein units (eggs).  canning and gardening are on my to do list as well.  living in the sticks has big advantages, but may require shooting intruders/raiders if things get ugly.

[smooth]

True, but if people prefer to own ETFs rather than own Bitcoins then that is a fault of Bitcoin, not of the users. The technology isn't meeting the needs of the target market.

The underlying root of why ETFs exist is greed. It is not Bitcoin's fault.

People can be (and many are) just as greedy with Bitcoin.

The reason ETFs (will) exist is they are easier (in almost every way), safer (in some ways), and more compatible with the existing system of laws and regulations (especially for mid-market professional investors) while offering similar upside.

[Pruden]

Please stop replying to that lame attempt at an AnonyMint copy. It's obvious he's just paraphrasing him, with all his 2015.75, Armstrong this, confiscation that.

I don't have specific advise

Also, AnonyMint would never mistake "advise" for "advice".

[iamback]

I don't have specific advise

Also, AnonyMint would never mistake "advise" for "advice".

I actually corrected that typo before seeing your post. I am undergoing a treatment regimen which down regulates the ATP energy production of the cells, and it appears to be causing me to slur my words and neurological impacts. I awaken tired to start each day. Then I have to take EGCG to gain enough energy to function. Also that was after midnight for me, after an entire day of work and I willl be age 50 in June. Also on standardized tests I only scored in the 85 - 90% percentile on the output of language (spelling, composition, grammar). My entire life I have noticed I type words that I did not think yet that have some phonetic proximity and sometimes I did read from the end to the start of sentences and paragraphs (some form of mild austism?). I did score near the 100th percentile in reading comprehension, reading speed, math, and abstraction (mathematical visualization). It appears that my brain wants to process all the information simultaneously and does not want to serialize the information, i.e. the output of each word one-by-one instead of all the words simultaneously. In my current physical condition and age, I particularly loath to read long text that is not informationally and purposefully dense.

[coinits]

True, but if people prefer to own ETFs rather than own Bitcoins then that is a fault of Bitcoin, not of the users. The technology isn't meeting the needs of the target market.

The underlying root of why ETFs exist is greed. It is not Bitcoin's fault.

People can be (and many are) just as greedy with Bitcoin.

The reason ETFs (will) exist is they are easier (in almost every way), safer (in some ways), and more compatible with the existing system of laws and regulations (especially for mid-market professional investors) while offering similar upside.

Easier, sure, because that this the way to lure in the suckers. If you don't hold it. You don't own it.

ETFs are a scam. All derivatives are a scam. When they crash, and they will, they will bring the global economy to its knees unlike anything we have ever seen. Those that have prepared will prosper. 2008 was a test run. There will be no bailing out this next shit storm. TPTBs only recourse will be to distract us with a global war.

I give it about 6 years.

Stay away.

[iamback]

but may require shooting intruders/raiders if things get ugly.

Necessary already in Argentina, Ukraine, much of the Middle East, etc. Ferfal explains elsewhere in his blog that if you shoot the intruder then you go to jail and/or your guns are confiscated.

If Homeland security doesn't declare martial law and take your weapons. And our European readers (other than Finland) are usually not allowed to own guns.

The problem with the hunkering down is it causes the velocity of money to collapse and society goes F.U.B.A.R..

It would be much preferable for us to find a way to route around the contagion of the deflationary abyss. If there can be a fledgling rise in the number of people who earn an independent income on the internet (which is right on time with the shift from the Industrial to the Knowledge age), there can be counterbalance to deathstar of the existing banking, finance, and industrial age top-down system.

So where should we begin to create this?

My idea is Silk Road and other nefarious activities. Note the semantic duality. What is nefarious to the deathstar is righteous, anarcho-libertarian, and freedom for the future.

And where is most of the demand for Crypto? Silk Road! Gambling! Hiding wealth! Etc.. Nefarious activities and speculation.

The people with the money, want something that is stable for settlement and which has low volatility.

This is not a currency market because the money just sits there, rather it is a store-of-value market. There are several problems with targeting this market which also plague Bitcoin and every altcoin.

Actually that market will not invest for safety and stability because cryptocurrency will not be reliably safe and stable for decade or more. That won't help us in the near-term to produce an altcoin.

Instead you'll end up only with the speculative investors, which is all that cryptocurrencies are except for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has actually become an alternative means to pay for things when the ignominy of credit cards is not acceptable.

In short, the entire market for cryptocurrency is:

1. Speculation

2. Nefarious activity

You either accept this market reality or fail.

[CoinCube]

Please stop replying to that lame attempt at an AnonyMint copy. It's obvious he's just paraphrasing him, with all his 2015.75, Armstrong this, confiscation that.

I don't have specific advise

Also, AnonyMint would never mistake "advise" for "advice".

iamback = AnonyMint = TheFascistMind = UnunoctiumTesticles = contagion

Having been following his posts for a while and communicating occasionally by PM both with AnonyMint and more recently with iamback I can say this with certainty.  

[smooth]

True, but if people prefer to own ETFs rather than own Bitcoins then that is a fault of Bitcoin, not of the users. The technology isn't meeting the needs of the target market.

The underlying root of why ETFs exist is greed. It is not Bitcoin's fault.

People can be (and many are) just as greedy with Bitcoin.

The reason ETFs (will) exist is they are easier (in almost every way), safer (in some ways), and more compatible with the existing system of laws and regulations (especially for mid-market professional investors) while offering similar upside.

Easier, sure, because that this the way to lure in the suckers. If you don't hold it. You don't own it.

ETFs are a scam. All derivatives are a scam. When they crash, and they will, they will bring the global economy to its knees unlike anything we have ever seen. Those that have prepared will prosper. 2008 was a test run. There will be no bailing out this next shit storm. TPTBs only recourse will be to distract us with a global war.

I give it about 6 years.

Stay away.

I'm not recommending them, and you will note the bolded phrase above was put there for a reason. I'm just observing things as they are.

[iamback]

All derivatives are a scam. When they crash, and they will, they will bring the global economy to its knees unlike anything we have ever seen.

I do understand your point that we wish everyone would own and use crypto-currency, because that is how we hope to change the banking, financial, and political system. But we need to accomplish that by making crypto-currency popular, not by sticking our head in the sand and declaring that modern civilization should not exist (which is what you are asserting when you conflate derivatives with our current top-down cancer). We actually need derivatives in order to make crypto-currency viable and adopted by business.

Derivatives are extremely necessary and helpful:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=966977.msg10577980#msg10577980 (read my thread)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/24/europe-outlawing-short-selling-and-there-goes-britain/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/29/derivatives-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/06/gold-backwardation-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/24/gold-perpetual-propaganda/



You are conflating corruption and top-down financial and political system with derivatives. Yes there are $trillions in derivatives that will blow up in the coming contagion, but not because derivatives are bad, but because Taleb's anti-fragility math is correct:

...

I am vaguely familiar with Taleb's math on modeling systemic responses to long tail events:

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Knowledge_Anneals

Top-down systems are inherently fragile because they overcommit to egregious error (link to Taleb's simplest summary of the math).

...

[coinits]

All derivatives are a scam. When they crash, and they will, they will bring the global economy to its knees unlike anything we have ever seen.

I do understand your point that we wish everyone would own and use crypto-currency, because that is how we hope to change the banking, financial, and political system. But we need to accomplish that by making crypto-currency popular, not by sticking our head in the sand and declaring that modern civilization should not exist (which is what you are asserting when you conflate derivatives with our current top-down cancer). We actually need derivatives in order to make crypto-currency viable and adopted by business.

Derivatives are extremely necessary and helpful:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=966977.msg10577980#msg10577980 (read my thread)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/24/europe-outlawing-short-selling-and-there-goes-britain/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/29/derivatives-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/06/gold-backwardation-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/24/gold-perpetual-propaganda/



You are conflating corruption and top-down financial and political system with derivatives. Yes there are $trillions in derivatives that will blow up in the coming contagion, but not because derivatives are bad, but because Taleb's anti-fragility math is correct:

...

I am vaguely familiar with Taleb's math on modeling systemic responses to long tail events:

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Knowledge_Anneals

Top-down systems are inherently fragile because they overcommit to egregious error (link to Taleb's simplest summary of the math).

...

They are evil incarnate. They are like paper heroin manufactured by the Global-Fascist Cartel and gobbled up by dumbed-down eager investors who listen to the broker or go at it solo as day traders.

Yes the whole shit shoe is a scam. Debt-based fiat is another flavor of the same paper heroin made by the same scum.

We, as a species, are being attacked on many fronts 24-7. Once one awakens to this evil and sees the world in all of its gory nakedness one reaches a point where information overload starts making one ignore a lot of 'news'. It is nothing but spoon-fed pablum of the same evil. It is called Television Programming for a reason.

[iamback]

We will never stop the mass delusions of crowds, whether it be rampant speculation in Florida real estate in the 1920s, ETFs in the 2000s, the South Sea Tulip bubble, etc..

Thus consternation over what is natural in human nature is pointless.

The more salient point I am making is that in order for decentralized banking and finance to gain critical mass, then it needs to have a popular use case that can't be done with the fiat banking and financial system.

I assert that use case is "nefarious activities"[1]. The positive feedback loop is that those who earn a profit in nefarious activities, thus also have a need for anonymity.

The mainstream has no need for decentralized crypto-currency nor anonymity, other than the speculative value.

The mainstream is sliding into a deflationary abyss, but they don't know or don't care.

We have to create the release valve new economy critical mass, else we get dragged down with the mainstream into F.U.B.A.R..

[1]	Which the anarcho-libertarian views as righteous freedom and maximally economic, i.e. not nefarious; rather it is statism that is nefarious. Nefarious for the Libertarian is Max Weber's definition of the state using force to violate property rights.

[coinits]

We will never stop the mass delusions of crowds, whether it be rampant speculation in Florida real estate in the 1920s, ETFs in the 2000s, the South Sea Tulip bubble, etc..

Thus consternation over what is natural in human nature is pointless.

The more salient point I am making is that in order for decentralized banking and finance to gain critical mass, then it needs to have a popular use case that can't be done with the fiat banking and financial system.

That use case is nefarious activities. The positive feedback loop is that those who earn a profit in nefarious activities, thus also have a need for anonymity.

The mainstream has no need for decentralized crypto-currency nor anonymity, other than the speculative value.

The mainstream is sliding into a deflationary abyss, but they don't know or don't care.

We have to create the release valve new economy critical mass, else we get dragged down with the mainstream into F.U.B.A.R..

My new math:

Bullets + Bread + Bullion + Shelter + Crypto + (Cooperatives * Trust) = Security

[iamback]

My new math:

Bullets + Bread + Bullion + Shelter + Crypto + (Cooperatives * Trust) = Security

You do not comprehend what you asking for.

You are exactly the people I don't want to be any where near when the USA heads into the abyss after 2016. This is why the USA will go into extreme chaos. There is an extreme right and an extreme left, and insufficient rationality in between.

Big smash up F.U.B.A.R. coming.

P.S. I don't dislike you as a person. We have agreed on some other points. I am talking about my survival only, not my personal feelings about you as a person.

[Syke]

it needs to have a popular use case that can't be done with the fiat banking and financial system.

My favorite use case is international sales. There is no existing fast, cheap, secure method of selling goods to international customers.