rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[sporket]

Was this a troll?

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... )

[Anotheranonlol]

So what would you say is the highest it can reach in the next rally?

Within a four month period, I'd put tops at $690 and that's me being optimistic. But frankly  I haven't a clue. I can't point at any TA chart to back up those assumptions

[pinksheep]

So what would you say is the highest it can reach in the next rally?

Within a four month period, I'd put tops at $690 and that's me being optimistic. But frankly  I haven't a clue. I can't point at any TA chart to back up those assumptions

Within 4 months that could be right, but let's hope it gets into the thousands before the end of the year.

[xDan]

The bitcoins the Norwegian guy bought for the total of $5 in 2009, bought him an apartment in 2014. If kept in fiat, it would have bought him - a sandwich.

This is such an awesome quote

If there was a 5% (1 in 20) chance of a ~450$ passive investment returning $700,000 any time soon every sane person on the planet would be buying in troves

Just because there is an X in Y chance of Z doesn't mean everybody is aware of it. Most regular people still think it is some kind of monopoly money.

(not that I do think it will go to $700K *soon*, but relying on regular people as a signal for Bitcoin is highly misplaced.. as you should know!)

[snakebit]

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... )

I hope you're prediction is on target, Risto. I have one last large buy to conduct next week and some even cheaper coins would sweeten the pot. 

[MahaRamana]

We are witnessing with our very own eyes the opportunity to purchase 1:1,000,000th of the money supply of this world, with one click, for $5,000, which is 1:10,000,000,000 of the fiat supply of the world.

Do the division: money is going for 1:10,000 of the price of fiat.

I don't trust the government that much.

The history sides with me. The bitcoins the Norwegian guy bought for the total of $5 in 2009, bought him an apartment in 2014. If kept in fiat, it would have bought him - a sandwich.

The time when 5 USD would buy a sandwich in Norway is gone. The guy would have bought a Pepsi. Even a capuccino would be too expensive for his budget.

[rpietila]

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... )

I hope you're prediction is on target, Risto. I have one last large buy to conduct next week and some even cheaper coins would sweeten the pot. 

It is not a troll, it is something that I just found in the charts. Count for yourself. If the pattern continues one moor week, it means that there'll be a capitulation crash this week. And then 7 weeks of going up, all the way to $650.

So my prediction is 650 in the end of June. The crash is optional. The trolls in the other thread did not want to hear the real meaning (as usual).

Chart showing all.

[mladen00]

Hi everyone,

This is the best topic in btt forum.

mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in June.

What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015

On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.

[TERA]

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... )

I hope you're prediction is on target, Risto. I have one last large buy to conduct next week and some even cheaper coins would sweeten the pot. 

It is not a troll, it is something that I just found in the charts. Count for yourself. If the pattern continues one moor week, it means that there'll be a capitulation crash this week. And then 7 weeks of going up, all the way to $650.

So my prediction is 650 in the end of June. The crash is optional. The trolls in the other thread did not want to hear the real meaning (as usual).

Chart showing all.

Here's a simpler way to convey the same idea about the relation to 2011:  3D MACD is up but 1W MACD is still firmly down.

[rpietila]

This is the best topic in btt forum.

Thanks!  

mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in 30th June.

What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015

On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.

It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN.

Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter.

In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k.

The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios.

I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack.

[Todorius]

Guys, I do not want to count the chickens before they are hatched, but this starts looking good.

Volume is going up, and resistance at 450 will probably soon be overcome.
The very foundations for the much anticipated summer rally are laid now. I therefore highly doubt a scenario where bitcoin drops into the 300-350 zone. It gets more and more
unlikely by the minute.

Instead I call 500$ by next week.

[pinksheep]

This is the best topic in btt forum.

Thanks!  

mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in 30th June.

What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015

On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.

It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN.

Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter.

In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k.

The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios.

I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack.

You really think $100K by 1.1.15 is possible?

[rpietila]

This is the best topic in btt forum.

Thanks!  

mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in 30th June.

What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015

On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.

It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN.

Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter.

In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k.

The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios.

I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack.

You really think $100K by 1.1.15 is possible?

Of course. It would not even be the first time: Less than 4 years ago Bitcoin price went up 200x (20,000%) in 7.6 months. (emphasis added to quote)

[pinksheep]

Didn't realise that it rose x200 in one year. Thought last year's one hundredfold rise was the biggest to date. Must have a closer look at bitcoin's history.

[Asrael999]

This is the best topic in btt forum.

Thanks!  

mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in 30th June.

What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015

On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.

It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN.

Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter.

In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k.

The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios.

I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack.

You really think $100K by 1.1.15 is possible?

possible just very very improbable.  
If you look at slipperyslopes' logistic model and accept the $1,000,000 upper bound then the trendline price will be $6,743 on 1/1/2015.
$100,000 implies pricing +1.18 above the trendline, Bitcoin has been valued this far over the trendline before (during 2011). If we take this as the absolute peak of bitcoin potential on 1/1/15 (and accept the model), then the low potential price is likely to be $450 area.
So right now with a 1/1/15 view in mind - and if you accept the the logistic model - then bitcoin seems to be a sensible buy.

[TrueAccess]

When you speculate you shouldn't call someone with different opinion/analyses a troll.

That's very destructive behavior for sure.

When it comes to price, such wide predictions are too radical for me. I don't believe we can be that sure about future price changes.

[rpietila]

When it comes to price, such wide predictions are too radical for me. I don't believe we can be that sure about future price changes.

Wide predictions are indicative of that the predictor is not sure either. So this exactly is the reason why I cannot say anything conclusive even if it is only 7.5 months away!

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

Can each bitcoin be $1 BILLION?
Now, this is getting funny...each satoshi $10, =21000 trillion or 21 quadrillion (~100X current world's wealth).
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/051414/could-one-bitcoin-come-be-worth-1-billion-qa.asp

http://www.krusekronicle.com/kruse_kronicle/2008/03/charting-histor.html#.U3Ox-PldVn4

http://krusekronicle.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/03/05/worldgdp1600_2003_2.gif

http://krusekronicle.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/03/05/worldgdpregion_3.gif

'Whichever economist you choose, the vertical spike at the end of the chart is astonishing.  Slow steady improvements in technology, science, and economic standards in Europe sparked a major agricultural revolution about 1700. Those changes and improvements paved the way for the Industrial Revolution, which Maddison pegs as starting about 1820 in England, a few decades later than some historians might suggest. (While many inventions came into being in the late eighteenth century, Maddison believes noticeable economic impact can not be observed until around 1820.) Agricultural abundance, combined with rise of machine power, made it feasible for agricultural workers to leave the country for the factory jobs in the city'

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.coinprism.com/

distribution and individualization of value representation and financial promises is nearby.  will be interesting to see the effects on GDP.


perhaps there will be strict population controls in the future.life expectancy will surely increase - productive/unproductive remains to be seen.

Extremely interesting links! However, the charts illustrate very clearly why one should not use linear plots for exponential growth, but log-plots instead

[jmw74]

possible just very very improbable.  
If you look at slipperyslopes' logistic model and accept the $1,000,000 upper bound then the trendline price will be $6,743 on 1/1/2015.
$100,000 implies pricing +1.18 above the trendline, Bitcoin has been valued this far over the trendline before (during 2011). If we take this as the absolute peak of bitcoin potential on 1/1/15 (and accept the model), then the low potential price is likely to be $450 area.
So right now with a 1/1/15 view in mind - and if you accept the the logistic model - then bitcoin seems to be a sensible buy.

Which trendline?  Today's?  Or the trendline that existed at the time?

If the price hits 100k on 1/1/15, that would change the trendline and so it wouldn't be as far above that trend as it would be above today's.

[SlipperySlope]

The sideways sort of rally on Huobi is about to touch the resistance trendline drawn from the November peak. Every other time this year the price could not convincingly penetrate that trendline. Note also the declining volume.

Is this time different?

Log chart at 3 day resolution . . .