sporket
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 14, 2014, 09:45:12 PM |
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Was this a troll? I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days. Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts: Double bottom at $2 in 2011. Our progress so far in the bottoming process.Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain: 2011: - 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2 - GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery - another flashcrash to $2.2014: - 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340 - GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery - ?(to be found out in 7 days.... ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) )
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Anotheranonlol
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 14, 2014, 09:50:47 PM |
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So what would you say is the highest it can reach in the next rally?
Within a four month period, I'd put tops at $690 and that's me being optimistic. But frankly I haven't a clue. I can't point at any TA chart to back up those assumptions
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pinksheep
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 14, 2014, 09:54:07 PM |
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So what would you say is the highest it can reach in the next rally?
Within a four month period, I'd put tops at $690 and that's me being optimistic. But frankly I haven't a clue. I can't point at any TA chart to back up those assumptions Within 4 months that could be right, but let's hope it gets into the thousands before the end of the year.
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xDan
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May 14, 2014, 09:55:34 PM |
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The bitcoins the Norwegian guy bought for the total of $5 in 2009, bought him an apartment in 2014. If kept in fiat, it would have bought him - a sandwich.
This is such an awesome quote ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) If there was a 5% (1 in 20) chance of a ~450$ passive investment returning $700,000 any time soon every sane person on the planet would be buying in troves Just because there is an X in Y chance of Z doesn't mean everybody is aware of it. Most regular people still think it is some kind of monopoly money. (not that I do think it will go to $700K *soon*, but relying on regular people as a signal for Bitcoin is highly misplaced.. as you should know!)
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HODLing for the longest time. Skippin fast right around the moon. On a rocketship straight to mars. Up, up and away with my beautiful, my beautiful Bitcoin~
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snakebit
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May 15, 2014, 12:06:32 AM |
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I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days. Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts: Double bottom at $2 in 2011. Our progress so far in the bottoming process.Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain: 2011: - 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2 - GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery - another flashcrash to $2.2014: - 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340 - GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery - ?(to be found out in 7 days.... ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ) I hope you're prediction is on target, Risto. I have one last large buy to conduct next week and some even cheaper coins would sweeten the pot. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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MahaRamana
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 05:03:13 AM |
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We are witnessing with our very own eyes the opportunity to purchase 1:1,000,000th of the money supply of this world, with one click, for $5,000, which is 1:10,000,000,000 of the fiat supply of the world.
Do the division: money is going for 1:10,000 of the price of fiat.
I don't trust the government that much.
The history sides with me. The bitcoins the Norwegian guy bought for the total of $5 in 2009, bought him an apartment in 2014. If kept in fiat, it would have bought him - a sandwich.
The time when 5 USD would buy a sandwich in Norway is gone. The guy would have bought a Pepsi. Even a capuccino would be too expensive for his budget.
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rpietila (OP)
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 05:17:39 AM |
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I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days. Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts: Double bottom at $2 in 2011. Our progress so far in the bottoming process.Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain: 2011: - 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2 - GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery - another flashcrash to $2.2014: - 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340 - GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery - ?(to be found out in 7 days.... ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ) I hope you're prediction is on target, Risto. I have one last large buy to conduct next week and some even cheaper coins would sweeten the pot. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) It is not a troll, it is something that I just found in the charts. Count for yourself. If the pattern continues one moor week, it means that there'll be a capitulation crash this week. And then 7 weeks of going up, all the way to $650. So my prediction is 650 in the end of June. The crash is optional. The trolls in the other thread did not want to hear the real meaning (as usual). Chart showing all.
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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mladen00
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K-ing®
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May 15, 2014, 06:04:28 AM |
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Hi everyone,
This is the best topic in btt forum.
mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in June.
What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015
On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.
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IOTA
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TERA
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 06:48:03 AM |
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I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days. Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts: Double bottom at $2 in 2011. Our progress so far in the bottoming process.Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain: 2011: - 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2 - GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery - another flashcrash to $2.2014: - 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400 - 2 GREEN weeks recovery - 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340 - GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery - ?(to be found out in 7 days.... ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ) I hope you're prediction is on target, Risto. I have one last large buy to conduct next week and some even cheaper coins would sweeten the pot. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) It is not a troll, it is something that I just found in the charts. Count for yourself. If the pattern continues one moor week, it means that there'll be a capitulation crash this week. And then 7 weeks of going up, all the way to $650. So my prediction is 650 in the end of June. The crash is optional. The trolls in the other thread did not want to hear the real meaning (as usual). Chart showing all.Here's a simpler way to convey the same idea about the relation to 2011: 3D MACD is up but 1W MACD is still firmly down.
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rpietila (OP)
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May 15, 2014, 06:52:10 AM |
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This is the best topic in btt forum.
Thanks! ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in 30th June.
What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015
On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.
It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN. Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter. In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k. The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios. I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack.
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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Todorius
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 11:13:54 AM |
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Guys, I do not want to count the chickens before they are hatched, but this starts looking good.
Volume is going up, and resistance at 450 will probably soon be overcome. The very foundations for the much anticipated summer rally are laid now. I therefore highly doubt a scenario where bitcoin drops into the 300-350 zone. It gets more and more unlikely by the minute.
Instead I call 500$ by next week.
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pinksheep
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 11:34:04 AM |
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This is the best topic in btt forum.
Thanks! ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in 30th June.
What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015
On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.
It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN. Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter. In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k. The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios. I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack. You really think $100K by 1.1.15 is possible?
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rpietila (OP)
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 11:37:36 AM |
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This is the best topic in btt forum.
Thanks! ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in 30th June.
What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015
On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.
It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN. Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter. In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k. The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios. I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack. You really think $100K by 1.1.15 is possible? Of course. It would not even be the first time: Less than 4 years ago Bitcoin price went up 200x (20,000%) in 7.6 months. (emphasis added to quote)
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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pinksheep
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 11:54:06 AM |
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Didn't realise that it rose x200 in one year. Thought last year's one hundredfold rise was the biggest to date. Must have a closer look at bitcoin's history.
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Asrael999
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 11:56:11 AM |
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This is the best topic in btt forum.
Thanks! ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in 30th June.
What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015
On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.
It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN. Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter. In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k. The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios. I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack. You really think $100K by 1.1.15 is possible? possible just very very improbable. If you look at slipperyslopes' logistic model and accept the $1,000,000 upper bound then the trendline price will be $6,743 on 1/1/2015. $100,000 implies pricing +1.18 above the trendline, Bitcoin has been valued this far over the trendline before (during 2011). If we take this as the absolute peak of bitcoin potential on 1/1/15 (and accept the model), then the low potential price is likely to be $450 area. So right now with a 1/1/15 view in mind - and if you accept the the logistic model - then bitcoin seems to be a sensible buy.
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TrueAccess
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May 15, 2014, 11:58:48 AM |
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When you speculate you shouldn't call someone with different opinion/analyses a troll.
That's very destructive behavior for sure.
When it comes to price, such wide predictions are too radical for me. I don't believe we can be that sure about future price changes.
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rpietila (OP)
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May 15, 2014, 12:06:49 PM |
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When it comes to price, such wide predictions are too radical for me. I don't believe we can be that sure about future price changes.
Wide predictions are indicative of that the predictor is not sure either. So this exactly is the reason why I cannot say anything conclusive even if it is only 7.5 months away!
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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LOADING.READY.RUN
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 12:25:07 PM |
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Extremely interesting links! However, the charts illustrate very clearly why one should not use linear plots for exponential growth, but log-plots instead ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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jmw74
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 15, 2014, 01:41:06 PM |
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possible just very very improbable. If you look at slipperyslopes' logistic model and accept the $1,000,000 upper bound then the trendline price will be $6,743 on 1/1/2015. $100,000 implies pricing +1.18 above the trendline, Bitcoin has been valued this far over the trendline before (during 2011). If we take this as the absolute peak of bitcoin potential on 1/1/15 (and accept the model), then the low potential price is likely to be $450 area. So right now with a 1/1/15 view in mind - and if you accept the the logistic model - then bitcoin seems to be a sensible buy.
Which trendline? Today's? Or the trendline that existed at the time? If the price hits 100k on 1/1/15, that would change the trendline and so it wouldn't be as far above that trend as it would be above today's.
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SlipperySlope
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May 15, 2014, 02:51:41 PM |
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The sideways sort of rally on Huobi is about to touch the resistance trendline drawn from the November peak. Every other time this year the price could not convincingly penetrate that trendline. Note also the declining volume. Is this time different? Log chart at 3 day resolution . . . ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCw8XZvg.png&t=665&c=Ed3ObZpFczdqWg)
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