Update 27 Oct:
Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread.
Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharing
Exponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time.
Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ).
Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of:
$20 468 based on line of best fit.
$14576 for conservative slope line.
If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility).
That gives us cyclic price low of :
$1672 for line of best fit.
$1152 for conservative line.
If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in 300 days. The price will be:
$2727 based on line of best fit.
$1727 based on conservative line.
And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be:
$35754 for line of best fit.
$25039 for conservative line.
