notme
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
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October 25, 2017, 04:49:14 AM |
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Hello, has the positive/negative absolute value any meaning or is it just a relative number that can be either pos/neg without any implications?
+ is above the long term exponential trend - is below it 0 is right on track
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Once a transaction has 6 confirmations, it is extremely unlikely that an attacker without at least 50% of the network's computation power would be able to reverse it.
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danielW
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October 28, 2017, 11:25:05 AM |
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Update 27 Oct: Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread. Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharingExponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time. Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ). Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of: $20 468 based on line of best fit. $14576 for conservative slope line. If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility). That gives us cyclic price low of : $1672 for line of best fit. $1152 for conservative line. If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in 300 days. The price will be: $2727 based on line of best fit. $1727 based on conservative line. And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be: $35754 for line of best fit. $25039 for conservative line.
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Wekkel
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Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
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October 28, 2017, 07:17:05 PM |
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Thanks for this. Very helpful.
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neilol-real
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October 28, 2017, 10:54:39 PM |
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Great post Daniel. This is the most bullish thread on this whole forum to me, imo
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josegines
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October 29, 2017, 11:21:45 AM |
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Great post @DanielW
Have not you thought about adding a column with the date?
What is the index that you take as a reference? it seems that it is not Bitstamp
Do you update the value manually?
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jl2012 (OP)
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Activity: 1792
Merit: 1093
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October 29, 2017, 03:25:32 PM |
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Thanks, it seems you used a different timeframe so your results is not same as mine This is my data source: 17 Jul 2010 to 18 Jun 2013: MtGox 19 Jun 2013 to now: Bitstamp Dates omitted: 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox closed) 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp closed) Update 27 Oct: Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread. Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharingExponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time. Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ). Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of: $20 468 based on line of best fit. $14576 for conservative slope line. If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility). That gives us cyclic price low of : $1672 for line of best fit. $1152 for conservative line. If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in 300 days. The price will be: $2727 based on line of best fit. $1727 based on conservative line. And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be: $35754 for line of best fit. $25039 for conservative line.
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Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY) LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC) PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
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danielW
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October 30, 2017, 06:30:55 AM |
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Yes I used a slightly different timeframe.
Starting 31/7/2010 Mt Gox.
From 02/01/2012 Bitstamp. For any missing days I used previous available price.
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neilol-real
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October 31, 2017, 01:29:09 PM |
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BETI: 0.045
It's happening. Have we ever broken 0, held and not continued higher?
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600watt
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Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
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October 31, 2017, 02:28:05 PM |
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BETI: 0.045
It's happening. Have we ever broken 0, held and not continued higher? yes, check it out:
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Mallyx
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October 31, 2017, 03:56:41 PM |
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According to BETI, the ATH of $38k is expected for the 12 November ? Am I understanding well all the data ?
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neilol-real
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October 31, 2017, 04:02:56 PM |
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According to BETI, the ATH of $38k is expected for the 12 November ? Am I understanding well all the data ? No - the current price would have been expected on 12 November. We are ~13 days ahead of the trend. IF the index was at it's previous ATH, the price would be ~$38k. Edit - That sounded negative . For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly.
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Mallyx
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October 31, 2017, 04:20:30 PM |
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According to BETI, the ATH of $38k is expected for the 12 November ? Am I understanding well all the data ? No - the current price would have been expected on 12 November. We are ~13 days ahead of the trend. IF the index was at it's previous ATH, the price would be ~$38k. Edit - That sounded negative . For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly. Thanks !
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Wekkel
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Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
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November 01, 2017, 12:33:16 PM |
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Am I understanding well all the data ?
The thing to understand is not to sell your BTC unless BETI exceeds 1.5
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jl2012 (OP)
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Activity: 1792
Merit: 1093
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November 02, 2017, 01:42:42 AM |
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Edit - That sounded negative . For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly. Yes, enjoy while it lasts. Positive BETI is very rare in the 7 year history of trading
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Donation address: 374iXxS4BuqFHsEwwxUuH3nvJ69Y7Hqur3 (Bitcoin ONLY) LRDGENPLYrcTRssGoZrsCT1hngaH3BVkM4 (LTC) PGP: D3CC 1772 8600 5BB8 FF67 3294 C524 2A1A B393 6517
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BitcoinNewsMagazine
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Activity: 1806
Merit: 1164
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November 02, 2017, 02:03:11 AM |
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Thanks for this quite impressive. I have been expecting the top to occur when 3 day RSI reaches 90; BETI over 1.0 close to 1.5 may be more accurate.
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windjc
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
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November 02, 2017, 02:32:41 AM |
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Edit - That sounded negative . For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly. Yes, enjoy while it lasts. Positive BETI is very rare in the 7 year history of trading This time I expect it last about a year+. This one is going up more slowly. It has built a slower base. No more BETI parabolic moves until perhaps the very end ---> $100k+
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