[ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs

[finlof]

**Originally posted in SP30 group-buy thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=575499.msg7499925#msg7499925)**

I just returned from a trip to Israel last week and was lucky enough to drop by the Spondoolies-Tech office.  All of the staff were all very friendly and I was treated very warmly.  Their office is located in a high-tech area of Israel, with their building right next to HP and Intel offices.  It is in a clean and secure facility.  I was able to meet with Guy (CEO), Kobi (COO), and Gadi (VP Marketing and Sales) - http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/pages/team.  I was shown and took a picture of the SP30 unit (without ASICs - http://imgur.com/elpsFfC).  Everyone I dealt with was intelligent, competent, and has a very forward-looking view of the company and bitcoin technologies.  IMO this seems to be the best team with the best product in the bitcoin mining hardware space.  I have been very satisfied with my SP10 units and am looking forward to receiving my SP30 in August.  If you dont have one on order yet get it while you can!





Side note - a pro tip when visiting the Dead Sea - if you do use goggles while floating/swimming don't take them off until you've reached the showers.

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[Doff]

6TH/s @ 2,500W for $5,000 (8.8 BTC) in September.

Assume delivery on September 1st. (optimistic)
Assume low electricity cost of 5c/kWh
Assume difficulty increases of 15% per period (conservative, we're currently 4 days from an estimated jump of 29%).

The result? A net loss of 0.7 BTC before turning it off in June 2015.

What am I missing here?

Its just going to keep going at 15% forever.. and ever..

I think you need to be a little more realistic, so you spend 9 coins now for a sept delivery box, your probably getting more than 9 coins back, it wont come in a month, but you still see return. These 15% forever numbers where the network is 20-30 times that of today seem a tad unrealistic. Will the network jump a lot more from today to Sept? Yep, will it be 1,036,674,835,832 diff? We shall see but I doubt it.

[RoadStress]

What am I missing here?

You are missing that difficulty can't rise forever with 15% per increase.

**Originally posted in SP30 group-buy thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=575499.msg7499925#msg7499925)**

I just returned from a trip to Israel last week and was lucky enough to drop by the Spondoolies-Tech office.  All of the staff were all very friendly and I was treated very warmly.  Their office is located in a high-tech area of Israel, with their building right next to HP and Intel offices.  It is in a clean and secure facility.  I was able to meet with Guy (CEO), Kobi (COO), and Gadi (VP Marketing and Sales) - http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/pages/team.  I was shown and took a picture of the SP30 unit (without ASICs - http://imgur.com/elpsFfC).  Everyone I dealt with was intelligent, competent, and has a very forward-looking view of the company and bitcoin technologies.  IMO this seems to be the best team with the best product in the bitcoin mining hardware space.  I have been very satisfied with my SP10 units and am looking forward to receiving my SP30 in August.  If you dont have one on order yet get it while you can!


Side note - a pro tip when visiting the Dead Sea - if you do use goggles while floating/swimming don't take them off until you've reached the showers.

Reading this gave me a warm and fuzzy feeling. Thank you!

[itamidensha]

What am I missing here?

You are missing that difficulty can't rise forever with 15% per increase.

I agree, it can't rise forever. The rises will taper off and we'll reach some rough equilibrium of hashrate.

It doesn't have to rise forever at 15% though. Only for the next 12 months,
or less if there's a couple of bigger leaps early on, or if your miner arrives at the end of Sept. instead of the beginning.

This time last year the network hashrate was 150TH/s. Today it's >600x that.
You don't think we can see a 30x rise over this coming year with all the manufacturers now on the scene?
 

[RoadStress]

What am I missing here?

You are missing that difficulty can't rise forever with 15% per increase.

I agree, it can't rise forever. The rises will taper off and we'll reach some rough equilibrium of hashrate.

It doesn't have to rise forever at 15% though. Only for the next 12 months,
or less if there's a couple of bigger leaps early on, or if your miner arrives at the end of Sept. instead of the beginning.

This time last year the network hashrate was 150TH/s. Today it's >600x that.
You don't think we can see a 30x rise over this coming year with all the manufacturers now on the scene?

Have you thought about the amount of money needed for last year's network hashrate jump and the money needed for next year's jump? It's a big big difference.  Jumping from 150TH/s to 120PH/s is not the same as a jump from 120PH to 3600PH/s. If we assume a 0.5$/GH * 3480PH= 1.74B$ needed for this diff jump. Don't really think that there are so many money that are just waiting to be spent on bitcoin hardware.

[jimmothy]

Have you thought about the amount of money needed for last year's network hashrate jump and the money needed for next year's jump? It's a big big difference.  Jumping from 150TH/s to 120PH/s is not the same as a jump from 120PH to 3600PH/s. If we assume a 0.5$/GH * 3480PH= 1.74B$ needed for this diff jump. Don't really think that there are so many money that are just waiting to be spent on bitcoin hardware.

Difficulty only needs to increase fivefold before electricity costs eat up half your earnings. So you would only need to add ~500PH or $250M.

[itamidensha]

What am I missing here?

You are missing that difficulty can't rise forever with 15% per increase.

I agree, it can't rise forever. The rises will taper off and we'll reach some rough equilibrium of hashrate.

It doesn't have to rise forever at 15% though. Only for the next 12 months,
or less if there's a couple of bigger leaps early on, or if your miner arrives at the end of Sept. instead of the beginning.

This time last year the network hashrate was 150TH/s. Today it's >600x that.
You don't think we can see a 30x rise over this coming year with all the manufacturers now on the scene?

Have you thought about the amount of money needed for last year's network hashrate jump and the money needed for next year's jump? It's a big big difference.  Jumping from 150TH/s to 120PH/s is not the same as a jump from 120PH to 3600PH/s. If we assume a 0.5$/GH * 3480PH= 1.74B$ needed for this diff jump. Don't really think that there are so many money that are just waiting to be spent on bitcoin hardware.

Good point. At today's BTC price, there's only about half that $1.74B of value to be mined in the coming year.
You can't assume $0.5/GH will be the going hardware rate for a whole year though.

I would be interested in making a small wager about what the difficulty will be at the end of June 2015!

[RoadStress]

Have you thought about the amount of money needed for last year's network hashrate jump and the money needed for next year's jump? It's a big big difference.  Jumping from 150TH/s to 120PH/s is not the same as a jump from 120PH to 3600PH/s. If we assume a 0.5$/GH * 3480PH= 1.74B$ needed for this diff jump. Don't really think that there are so many money that are just waiting to be spent on bitcoin hardware.

Difficulty only needs to increase fivefold before electricity costs eat up half your earnings. So you would only need to add ~500PH or $250M.

Sure. Been there done that already, don't worry. By the time the network will add another 500PH I will have better and more efficient equipment. Since I don't see AMs 60PH being sold so fast as you expected I'm sure that it will take some time before adding another 500PH.

Good point. At today's BTC price, there's only about half that $1.74B of value to be mined in the coming year.
You can't assume $0.5/GH will be the going hardware rate for a whole year though.

I would be interested in making a small wager about what the difficulty will be at the end of June 2015!

Sure. Let's have a 0.1 BTC bet. You bet on your desired difficulty at the end of June and I win if it's less and you win if it's more.

[itamidensha]

Sure. Let's have a 0.1 BTC bet. You bet on your desired difficulty at the end of June and I win if it's less and you win if it's more.

If the bitcoin difficulty is more than 300 billion at midnight on June 30, 2015 - I win.
Otherwise - you win.
Escrow? winner pays?

EDIT: accidentally a word

[RoadStress]

Sure. Let's have a 0.1 BTC bet. You bet on your desired difficulty at the end of June and I win if it's less and you win if it's more.

If the bitcoin difficulty is more than 300 billion at midnight on June 30, 2015 - I win.
Otherwise - you win.
Escrow? winner pays?

EDIT: accidentally a word

So if the difficulty is equal or more than 300 billion you win. If it's less than 300 billion then I win. We have a deal! Winner pays 0.1 BTC to the loser.

I will accept any escrow even if for this low amount I don't think it's needed.

[Beastlymac]

Sure. Let's have a 0.1 BTC bet. You bet on your desired difficulty at the end of June and I win if it's less and you win if it's more.

If the bitcoin difficulty is more than 300 billion at midnight on June 30, 2015 - I win.
Otherwise - you win.
Escrow? winner pays?

EDIT: accidentally a word

So if the difficulty is equal or more than 300 billion you win. If it's less than 300 billion then I win. We have a deal! Winner pays 0.1 BTC to the loser.

I will accept any escrow even if for this low amount I don't think it's needed.

I will escrow for free if you would like.

[itamidensha]

So if the difficulty is equal or more than 300 billion you win. If it's less than 300 billion then I win. We have a deal! Winner pays 0.1 BTC to the loser.

I will accept any escrow even if for this low amount I don't think it's needed.

Beastlymac has kindly offered to do it for free! If it's ok with you let's send him the funds up front and the bet can be settled at midnight (let's say GMT) June 30, 2015.

I will escrow for free if you would like.

Thank you!

[Collider]

Last i heard this wasn´t the difficulty discussion thread

However, if spondoolies next chip (I mean the 2nd 28nm chip) should hit the market with a power consumption of 0.2W/GH and low overhead cost when deploying together,
you could very well get massive difficulty increases.

Does anyone per chance know the window for 16nm chip availability?

16nm should allow (much) more than double the transistor density and lower leakage, while also using lower voltage, so the chips should again be more than 2* more efficient and much cheaper per GH.


If this comes to play together with a possible bitcoin price increase (let´s say to 1500$ by April 2015) it isn´t too unlikely that those high difficulty numbers could be reached.

[RoadStress]

Beastlymac will PM you to ask you for the address. I think itamidensha should do the same.

Last i heard this wasn´t the difficulty discussion thread

However, if spondoolies next chip (I mean the 2nd 28nm chip) should hit the market with a power consumption of 0.2W/GH and low overhead cost when deploying together,
you could very well get massive difficulty increases.

Does anyone per chance know the window for 16nm chip availability?

16nm should allow (much) more than double the transistor density and lower leakage, while also using lower voltage, so the chips should again be more than 2* more efficient and much cheaper per GH.


If this comes to play together with a possible bitcoin price increase (let´s say to 1500$ by April 2015) it isn´t too unlikely that those high difficulty numbers could be reached.

At least this discussion just ended, but yeah I think I might lose it considering the 30 June deadline. I should have asked for a 31 May deadline.

Back to hardware discussions.

[dmeter]

Last i heard this wasn´t the difficulty discussion thread

However, if spondoolies next chip (I mean the 2nd 28nm chip) should hit the market with a power consumption of 0.2W/GH and low overhead cost when deploying together,
you could very well get massive difficulty increases.

Does anyone per chance know the window for 16nm chip availability?

16nm should allow (much) more than double the transistor density and lower leakage, while also using lower voltage, so the chips should again be more than 2* more efficient and much cheaper per GH.


If this comes to play together with a possible bitcoin price increase (let´s say to 1500$ by April 2015) it isn´t too unlikely that those high difficulty numbers could be reached.

http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/none/322862-get-ready-for-14nm-and-16nm-chips

[bitcoiner23]

16nm should allow (much) more than double the transistor density and lower leakage, while also using lower voltage...

http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/none/322862-get-ready-for-14nm-and-16nm-chips

Just check KnC's super 20nm -30%

[Collider]

16nm should allow (much) more than double the transistor density and lower leakage, while also using lower voltage...

http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/none/322862-get-ready-for-14nm-and-16nm-chips

Just check KnC's super 20nm -30%

Process node advantages can only be compared to power advantages when basically the same mining implementation is used (specifically when optimisation on the same node is already maxed out)

Otherwise you could claim 55nm as superior to 28nm, as Bitfury had 0.8W/GH on 55nm vs 1.2W/GH on KnC 28nm.

[zvisha]

Have you thought about the amount of money needed for last year's network hashrate jump and the money needed for next year's jump? It's a big big difference.  Jumping from 150TH/s to 120PH/s is not the same as a jump from 120PH to 3600PH/s. If we assume a 0.5$/GH * 3480PH= 1.74B$ needed for this diff jump. Don't really think that there are so many money that are just waiting to be spent on bitcoin hardware.

Difficulty only needs to increase fivefold before electricity costs eat up half your earnings. So you would only need to add ~500PH or $250M.

Common, who will manufacture miners that do 0.4-0.5 when the difficulty is over 300PH? Noone.
Unless someone makes a miner that does 0.2 (which is VERY not trivial and not many of current players can do that), and then his profit is just ~200$ a month from the start - why should he invest when ROI is 2 years?
After we each 200PH-300PH mark there is no reason to create more miners, and those who have miners will make good money for a long time.

[jamesg]

Have you thought about the amount of money needed for last year's network hashrate jump and the money needed for next year's jump? It's a big big difference.  Jumping from 150TH/s to 120PH/s is not the same as a jump from 120PH to 3600PH/s. If we assume a 0.5$/GH * 3480PH= 1.74B$ needed for this diff jump. Don't really think that there are so many money that are just waiting to be spent on bitcoin hardware.

Difficulty only needs to increase fivefold before electricity costs eat up half your earnings. So you would only need to add ~500PH or $250M.

Common, who will manufacture miners that do 0.4-0.5 when the difficulty is over 300PH? Noone.
Unless someone makes a miner that does 0.2 (which is VERY not trivial and not many of current players can do that), and then his profit is just ~200$ a month from the start - why should he invest when ROI is 2 years?
After we each 200PH-300PH mark there is no reason to create more miners, and those who have miners will make good money for a long time.

The assertion that the network will stop growing after 200-300Ph is a very very bad one. Just because retail customers might not pay $0.50/Gh doesn't mean that manufacturers cannot keep making equipment for their raw costs.

Look at who is mining today and their percentages.

Bitfury - 8-10%
KNCminer - 6%
Antpool - 4%
Cloudhashing / PeerNova - 3%

That is a full 25% of the network from just manufacturers mining. And this is only what we know about.

Do you some how think that when customers stop buying the manufacturers are going to stop producing and mining?

[Collider]

The basic assertion isn´t wrong, as there is a limit at which nobody gains ROI in the network, atleast not with new equipment.