[ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs

[dropt]

The margins are just too tight for them to run all these miners and pay themselves salaries to buy hookers and blow.  There may be some master plan to devour all of bitcoin mining by spending now and earning later, but I doubt they'll be able to keep up with it.  They are just increasing the difficulty on themselves while the Bitcoin price is languishing.

I get a bit giddy thinking about the next halving.  That's going to suck for the corporate guys.

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[wpgdeez]

supposedly their chips are made in China , and we are also talking about BitMain who are pumping out S3s at a crazy rate right now
already up to batch 6 or 7 since it was launched 30 days ago

Chips are fabbed all over the world (and there is no big profit in fabbing chips for the fab).

While Bitmain pumps out a lot of Ants, they are only ~0.5TH each. Bitfury is deploying 3.5TH units in their DCs, at 0.775W/GH.

Spondoolies produces 4.5TH units with a very small space requirement, and 5.5TH units hopefully soon.

The best thing you can do right now is to order with spondoolies and enable them to increase their batch sizes and therefore lower prices.

They are in the business of maximizing profit, what makes you think any saving would be passed to the consumer?

[TKeenan]

supposedly their chips are made in China , and we are also talking about BitMain who are pumping out S3s at a crazy rate right now
already up to batch 6 or 7 since it was launched 30 days ago

Chips are fabbed all over the world (and there is no big profit in fabbing chips for the fab).

While Bitmain pumps out a lot of Ants, they are only ~0.5TH each. Bitfury is deploying 3.5TH units in their DCs, at 0.775W/GH.

Spondoolies produces 4.5TH units with a very small space requirement, and 5.5TH units hopefully soon.

The best thing you can do right now is to order with spondoolies and enable them to increase their batch sizes and therefore lower prices.

They are in the business of maximizing profit, what makes you think any saving would be passed to the consumer?

Same thing that made me believe they'd meet the specification.  I am an idiot.

[Collider]

They are in the business of maximizing profit, what makes you think any saving would be passed to the consumer?

They are still one of the best companies out there, in terms of product aswell as customer service.

The problem is that spondoolies is still very small compared to bitmain or Bitfury, which is hopefully going to change.


I am sure nobody wants a market with only two big players, one of them not selling to consumers.

[Marvell1]

Their electricity costs aren't that big of a deal.  The expense is LABOR.  The people in charge are likely drawing six figure salaries.  They have engineers making chips, and who knows how many people in these data centers doing installing, fixing, wiring, updating, etc.  People say it's turn-key but anyone that runs miners knows these things are anything but set and forget.  When you're at the scale they are, they have people likely working around the clock to investigate update and repair these things.

That's the overhead that will ultimately bankrupt them unless the Bitcoin price jumps up.  If it falls, it'll be that much faster.  Of course, they make some cash from CEX.IO (They own that right?) and hardware sales, but I think they also have investors and vc funding, and so they have to also pay out a percentage of profits to those people and to pay back whatever credit they've run on.

The margins are just too tight for them to run all these miners and pay themselves salaries to buy hookers and blow.  There may be some master plan to devour all of bitcoin mining by spending now and earning later, but I doubt they'll be able to keep up with it.  They are just increasing the difficulty on themselves while the Bitcoin price is languishing.

Excellent points friend and this is why i wonder if this new hash is from someone else other than them because I'm sure they are not stupid why would they keep building more hardware more DATOR halls with the current state of diminishing returns.  Another factor to consider i guess is if they are in the Ex-USSR like it was previously stated they also have cheap labor along with their cheap electricity.

[Bitsaurus]

The margins are just too tight for them to run all these miners and pay themselves salaries to buy hookers and blow.  There may be some master plan to devour all of bitcoin mining by spending now and earning later, but I doubt they'll be able to keep up with it.  They are just increasing the difficulty on themselves while the Bitcoin price is languishing.

I get a bit giddy thinking about the next halving.  That's going to suck for the corporate guys.

You and me both.  You know they have to figure that most of the income from miners comes in the first 3 months, so around Q1 of 2016 they will stop adding hardware since it wlll never pay for itself.  The only people who can keep selling would be cloudmining since their buyers typically will trust any website as long as it has good eye candy.

[Marvell1]

The margins are just too tight for them to run all these miners and pay themselves salaries to buy hookers and blow.  There may be some master plan to devour all of bitcoin mining by spending now and earning later, but I doubt they'll be able to keep up with it.  They are just increasing the difficulty on themselves while the Bitcoin price is languishing.

I get a bit giddy thinking about the next halving.  That's going to suck for the corporate guys.

You and me both.  You know they have to figure that most of the income from miners comes in the first 3 months, so around Q1 of 2016 they will stop adding hardware since it wlll never pay for itself.  The only people who can keep selling would be cloudmining since their buyers typically will trust any website as long as it has good eye candy.

2016 is a long way away though, i bet when block halving happens the coins will be selling for near double what they are now so it won't affect the big boys as much as you hope

[s1gs3gv]

i bet when block halving happens the coins will be selling for near double what they are now

or 10 bucks

There is better than even chances that this will go down as the greatest tulip mania of all time.

~L)L~

[s1gs3gv]

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png

Time to repost this.

And this http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

~L)L~

[TheJuice]

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png

Time to repost this.

And this http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

~L)L~

Unless we have a major technological breakthrough this trend is over. Who knows, maybe quantum computing is coming!

[Syke]

Unless we have a major technological breakthrough this trend is over.

What trend is over?

Consider an SP30, $4000, 4.5 TH/s, 3000 watts:

Hosting cost at $.15/kwh per day: $11
Income per day: $66

Expect difficulty to continue to rise at least 6x from now.

[crazyates]

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png

Time to repost this.

And this http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

~L)L~

Unless we have a major technological breakthrough this trend is over. Who knows, maybe quantum computing is coming!

GPU/FPGA -> ASIC was a 100x increase, but look over the past 1.5 years. We've gone from 68GH/s Avalons at 620W to 4.5TH/s at 3000W.

That's 65x the speed, and almost 15x the efficiency. "ASICs" weren't the end-all to the rising difficulty that people hoped they would be, nor do we see any sign that it's going to let up anytime soon.

[grn]

am i missing something here? can't find any possibility of positive ROI

cost 3895 + 1800, 6 month hosting( being generous as roi seems to be in years) 15 % diff

2014            -10.04
9-25 – 9-30 (6 days)   30006 M   0.4346   0.4259   -9.618
10-1 – 10-31 (37 days)   34507 M   1.814   1.778   -7.84
11-1 – 11-30 (67 days)   45635 M   1.277   1.252   -6.589
12-1 – 12-31 (98 days)   60353 M   0.9482   0.9293   -5.66
2015
1-1 – 1-31 (129 days)   91790 M   0.6786   0.665   -4.994
2-1 – 2-28 (157 days)   121 G   0.4487   0.4397   -4.555
3-1 – 3-31 (188 days)   160 G   0.3631   0.3559   -4.199
4-1 – 4-30 (218 days)   244 G   0.2515   0.2465   -3.952
5-1 – 5-31 (249 days)   322 G   0.1889   0.1851   -3.767
6-1 – 6-30 (279 days)   427 G   0.1323   0.1296   -3.638
7-1 – 7-31 (310 days)   649 G   0.09757   0.09562   -3.542
8-1 – 8-31 (341 days)   858 G   0.07065   0.06924   -3.473
9-1 – 9-30 (371 days)   1135 G   0.04936   0.04837   -3.425
10-1 – 10-31 (402 days)   1727 G   0.03651   0.03578   -3.389
11-1 – 11-30 (432 days)   2284 G   0.02571   0.0252   -3.364
12-1 – 12-31 (463 days)   3021 G   0.01915   0.01877   -3.345
2016
1-1 – 1-31 (494 days)   4595 G   0.01365   0.01338   -3.331
2-1 – 2-29 (523 days)   6077 G   0.00932   0.009133   -3.322
3-1 – 3-31 (554 days)   8037 G   0.007238   0.007093   -3.315
4-1 – 4-30 (584 days)   12224 G   0.005016   0.004916   -3.31
5-1 – 5-31 (615 days)   16166 G   0.003767   0.003691   -3.307
6-1 – 6-30 (645 days)   21380 G   0.002636   0.002583   -3.304
7-1 – 7-31 (676 days)   32516 G   0.001946   0.001907   -3.302
8-1 – 8-31 (707 days)   43003 G   0.001409   0.001381   -3.301
9-1 – 9-30 (737 days)   56871 G   0.0009837   0.000964   -3.3
10-1 – 10-31 (768 days)   86494 G   0.0007282   0.0007136   -3.299
11-1 – 11-30 (798 days)   114389 G   0.0005128   0.0005025   -3.299
12-1 – 12-31 (829 days)   151279 G   0.0003818   0.0003741   -3.298
2017
1-1 – 1-31 (860 days)   230077 G   0.0002724   0.0002669   -3.298
2-1 – 2-28 (888 days)   304277 G   0.0001802   0.0001766   -3.298
3-1 – 3-31 (919 days)   402407 G   0.0001462   0.0001433   -3.298
4-1 – 4-30 (949 days)   612011 G   0.0001009   0.00009893   -3.297
5-1 – 5-31 (980 days)   809385 G   0.00007581   0.00007429   -3.297
6-1 – 6-30 (1010 days)   1070411 G   0.00005321   0.00005215   -3.297
7-1 – 7-31 (1041 days)   1415619 G   0.00003921   0.00003842   -3.297
8-1 – 8-31 (1072 days)   2152980 G   0.00002836   0.00002779   -3.297
9-1 – 9-30 (1102 days)   2847316 G   0.00001988   0.00001948   -3.297
10-1 – 10-31 (1133 days)   4330412 G   0.00001465   0.00001436   -3.297
11-1 – 11-30 (1163 days)   5726970 G   0.00001032   0.00001012   -3.297
12-1 – 12-31 (1194 days)   7573918 G   0.000007711   0.000007557   -3.297
2018

[Marvell1]

am i missing something here? can't find any possibility of positive ROI

cost 3895 + 1800, 6 month hosting( being generous as roi seems to be in years) 15 % diff

2014            -10.04
9-25 – 9-30 (6 days)   30006 M   0.4346   0.4259   -9.618
10-1 – 10-31 (37 days)   34507 M   1.814   1.778   -7.84
11-1 – 11-30 (67 days)   45635 M   1.277   1.252   -6.589
12-1 – 12-31 (98 days)   60353 M   0.9482   0.9293   -5.66
2015
1-1 – 1-31 (129 days)   91790 M   0.6786   0.665   -4.994
2-1 – 2-28 (157 days)   121 G   0.4487   0.4397   -4.555
3-1 – 3-31 (188 days)   160 G   0.3631   0.3559   -4.199
4-1 – 4-30 (218 days)   244 G   0.2515   0.2465   -3.952
5-1 – 5-31 (249 days)   322 G   0.1889   0.1851   -3.767
6-1 – 6-30 (279 days)   427 G   0.1323   0.1296   -3.638
7-1 – 7-31 (310 days)   649 G   0.09757   0.09562   -3.542
8-1 – 8-31 (341 days)   858 G   0.07065   0.06924   -3.473
9-1 – 9-30 (371 days)   1135 G   0.04936   0.04837   -3.425
10-1 – 10-31 (402 days)   1727 G   0.03651   0.03578   -3.389
11-1 – 11-30 (432 days)   2284 G   0.02571   0.0252   -3.364
12-1 – 12-31 (463 days)   3021 G   0.01915   0.01877   -3.345
2016
1-1 – 1-31 (494 days)   4595 G   0.01365   0.01338   -3.331
2-1 – 2-29 (523 days)   6077 G   0.00932   0.009133   -3.322
3-1 – 3-31 (554 days)   8037 G   0.007238   0.007093   -3.315
4-1 – 4-30 (584 days)   12224 G   0.005016   0.004916   -3.31
5-1 – 5-31 (615 days)   16166 G   0.003767   0.003691   -3.307
6-1 – 6-30 (645 days)   21380 G   0.002636   0.002583   -3.304
7-1 – 7-31 (676 days)   32516 G   0.001946   0.001907   -3.302
8-1 – 8-31 (707 days)   43003 G   0.001409   0.001381   -3.301
9-1 – 9-30 (737 days)   56871 G   0.0009837   0.000964   -3.3
10-1 – 10-31 (768 days)   86494 G   0.0007282   0.0007136   -3.299
11-1 – 11-30 (798 days)   114389 G   0.0005128   0.0005025   -3.299
12-1 – 12-31 (829 days)   151279 G   0.0003818   0.0003741   -3.298
2017
1-1 – 1-31 (860 days)   230077 G   0.0002724   0.0002669   -3.298
2-1 – 2-28 (888 days)   304277 G   0.0001802   0.0001766   -3.298
3-1 – 3-31 (919 days)   402407 G   0.0001462   0.0001433   -3.298
4-1 – 4-30 (949 days)   612011 G   0.0001009   0.00009893   -3.297
5-1 – 5-31 (980 days)   809385 G   0.00007581   0.00007429   -3.297
6-1 – 6-30 (1010 days)   1070411 G   0.00005321   0.00005215   -3.297
7-1 – 7-31 (1041 days)   1415619 G   0.00003921   0.00003842   -3.297
8-1 – 8-31 (1072 days)   2152980 G   0.00002836   0.00002779   -3.297
9-1 – 9-30 (1102 days)   2847316 G   0.00001988   0.00001948   -3.297
10-1 – 10-31 (1133 days)   4330412 G   0.00001465   0.00001436   -3.297
11-1 – 11-30 (1163 days)   5726970 G   0.00001032   0.00001012   -3.297
12-1 – 12-31 (1194 days)   7573918 G   0.000007711   0.000007557   -3.297
2018

hard to read your chart there is no profit for anyone at a 20% diff increase monthly I cant see how  that is sustainable since 20% increases per month by December all those
Shiny new Antminer s3's will be paperweights and that should cause diff to level off.  But who knows I guess.

One thing I do agree with is I doubt any machine bought now has a shelf life of greater than 3-4 months maybe 5 at the max so paying $1800 to $1600 for six months hosting makes no sense to me
since that's another sunk cost.  I would rather host it locally on a month to month basis so I can turn it off once it stops being useful.

[Grix]

15 % diff

There's the problem.

I posted my difficulty predictions in this thread like two months ago, and many people laughed at how low the estimates for difficulty growth was. But so far, it's been right on the money, in fact the actual difficulty is slightly lower than I predicted. Come summer 2015 we will see negative difficulty adjustments more often than 10%+ ones, that is unless the bitcoin price increases dramatically of course.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P_rgP9XnBvuznWdRi7IUKizQHUR0DNxDrl08H90juzc/edit#gid=0

[jamesg]

that is unless the bitcoin price increases dramatically of course.

Or we have a prolonged bear market (2011) and prices revisit levels not seen since april 2013. 

[s1gs3gv]

am i missing something here? can't find any possibility of positive ROI

No.

[noodle73]

I'd love to know at what point it becomes uneconomical  for the corporates currently piling in and they pull the plug.
I imagine small miners have more endurance for making losses than they do, not that it helps right now...

[Dabs]

I still want a unit. Just can't buy one right now.

[zvisha]

... You know they have to figure that most of the income from miners comes in the first 3 months....

That was true while the difficulty was raising fast and HW was getting cheaper fast. It will not be lake that from the autumn. It will be longer ROI.