2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Sithara007]

I was looking at the results from RealClearPolling. Once again, Trump has pulled ahead, and their no-tossup map now shows 281 electoral votes for Trump, compared to 257 for Kamala. That said, Kamala is still leading the popular vote (which can be expected as red states are turning less red, and blue states are becoming deep blue). Pennsylvania seems to be the most crucial state at this point. It is changing hands every week or so. North Carolina is another swing state which is an absolute tossup at this point.

[pawel7777]

(...) I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.

Calm down. Nobody is accusing you of liking Kamala, we all know that she has close to zero "positive" support (meaning people who would vote for her because they like what she represents). It's all about pro-Trumpers Vs anti-Trumpers, there's no such thing as pro-Kamala.

I wouldn't be surprised if she gets the win either. If her handlers were to tell her to tone down with controversial opinions (i.e. unrealised gains tax) and focus on just looking normal and not unhinged, she could jump up in polls. Trump has a solid base of boomer voters but seems to be losing the votes of younger conservatives, who are disappointed by his first-term as well as being pro-Israel first, rather than pro-USA.
Also, he has almost no 2016 vibe left.

[Hispo]

(...) I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.

Calm down. Nobody is accusing you of liking Kamala, we all know that she has close to zero "positive" support (meaning people who would vote for her because they like what she represents). It's all about pro-Trumpers Vs anti-Trumpers, there's no such thing as pro-Kamala.

I know right?. People in the United States are not stupid enough yet to fully and sincerely support Kamala Harris for what she could actually represent, it is all about not allowing Trump to step into the White House again. In my humble opinion, people from the USA deserves more in terms of leadership, but they are trapped in a political duopoly by both the Republican and Democrat party, so the elite within the party takes advantage of this duopoly to push whatever they want, in the case of the democratic party: Kamala Harris. On the other hand, Donald Trump has taken the GOP hostage and he does not plan to let it go.

Also, Media does not seem to help either on defining what Kamala actually is, centrists will say she is an out-of-control communist, while the left believes she is not leftist enough for society to actually change for good.

[Pokapoka124]

Amazingly it looks like we're headed straight to yet another Biden vs. Trump race.

This is the first time I am coming to this thread and in the Op I saw Donald Trump and Joe Biden as the forthcoming US election contesters. Though I am not from there but I believed the race now is between Donald Trump and Kalama Harris. So if the latter is the correct data for the candidates then the Op should edit the thread to change the two challenging actos to the current two candidatures of the General Election in US. And as it was said by others, US is different from third world countries so woman is allow to rule the State then Donald Trump should not overlook Kalama Harris because if really the people like her then, he will still lose but because of the use of bitcoin in his campaign manifestos, the election might not favour her.

Though a lot has changed since the thread was created, the topic title remains on point. I don’t know how long you have been following the US elections, I suggest you read the posts on the topic to see what people from the country and other nations are saying about the two candidates. The failed assassination attempt on Trump increased his chances at the polls. I see a lot of Trump - Bitcoin topics on the forum, but a politician making promises to the Bitcoin community (that he may not honour if he gets elected) is not a major reason why he is a better candidate than Kamala Harris. The American people cannot be easily manipulated. They are more concerned about other pressing issues like border security & control, trade deals with other countries e.t.c. Issues affecting the country and their stand as world power come first in the pecking order before bitcoin adoption.

[alani123]

Tonight is debate night and I am getting a feeling it will be very interesting.
Kamala's campaign has built a lot upon the strategy of attacking Trump just like he did with Hillary in 2016. They kind of got really organized and keep frontrunning him, attacking on aspects he could orchestrate an attack before he does. So it'll be interesting to see who's going to outwit who.

I'm fairly certain there's going to be quite a few attacks and policy will be in the sidelines. Certainly Kamala has many attack angles, while it's hard to latch onto something to attack her with as she's quite new. Will she stoop that low? If she does Donald has a good chance to play it out as being more classy which would be a huge twist. I'm counting on this and if Donald plays it safe maybe he'll come out on top..

[STT]

Im watching the debate now and it seems more even then I expected, both sides putting their points across however effective those might be with the public.   Trump declared Israel will fall in 2 years for example if he isnt elected, as always he doesnt do little statements.   Harris comes across as more reasonable and justified but again that doesnt mean it resonates with the public for votes.  

 They are contradicting each other, Harris is actively trying trigger Trump on a few points to emphasize his flaws etc.  I dont feel the debate is going to be the deciding factor in the election judging it mid way, theres some fact checking to cap the Trump effect but its not overly different to other debates.
  Mostly I will argue this whole circus with national TV views will favor Harris for publicity on every point and maybe gaining votes as in effect she is new to the job, Trump already knows his audience and alot of it is repeated.

[TwitchySeal]

Overall Kamala did very well.  I don't expect the debate to move many people, but because Kamalas brain didn't stop working like Bidens, and she was effective in pointing out Trumps ridiculous lies (immigrants eating peoples pets and democrats deciding to get abortions after the child is born were my favorites) I expect right wing media to do what they always do when Trump doesn't have total and complete victory.  They will repeat say it was rigged and cry about "the media" and all the magatards will parrot all of that right back to anyone who will listen.


I'm Trump will be able to shake it off...

Like many of you, I watched the debate tonight. If you haven’t already, now is a great time to do your research on the issues at hand and the stances these candidates take on the topics that matter to you the most. As a voter, I make sure to watch and read everything I can about their proposed policies and plans for this country.

Recently I was made aware that AI of ‘me’ falsely endorsing Donald Trump’s presidential run was posted to his site. It really conjured up my fears around AI, and the dangers of spreading misinformation. It brought me to the conclusion that I need to be very transparent about my actual plans for this election as a voter. The simplest way to combat misinformation is with the truth.

I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I’m voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them. I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos. I was so heartened and impressed by her selection of running mate @timwalz, who has been standing up for LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body for decades.

I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice. Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make. I also want to say, especially to first time voters: Remember that in order to vote, you have to be registered! I also find it’s much easier to vote early. I’ll link where to register and find early voting dates and info in my story.

With love and hope,

Taylor Swift
Childless Cat Lady

[Haunebu]

Trump and the republicans got a nasty blow thanks to Taylor Swift acknowledging her support for Harris and the democrats just like she supported Biden-Harris way back in 2020.

Trump's pathetic fake Swift support using AI blew up in his face. Harris just became a lot more popular thanks to Swift's fans rallying behind her all of a sudden.

[TopTort777]

but this time it is going to be Trump.

How can you be so sure? If it's just an intuition, or a preference, then there's no question. Because based on the current state of affairs, it is impossible to confidently name a winner. Too many multidirectional factors can affect the outcome of an election. I think Kamala will win the election. That doesn't mean I like her. I'm thinking in terms of a winning bet. Of course, not with 100% certainty, but with a probability of ~ 55%.. This is my kind of subjective conclusion, which does not pretend to be true.

I am not sure, I only express my prediction based on the mood of people around. Just my two cents - I dont think that majority gamblers are the same politics professionals, like they are in sport. They see it simple. Biden is old and weird. Trump is a businessman. Harris - who is she? Making prediction in sports is more simple, politics have way to many things to take into consideration. I think I am going to change my prediction into random if that would be possible I would better pass such election betting, as you never know all the behind the games things.

[Dave1]

Trump and the republicans got a nasty blow thanks to Taylor Swift acknowledging her support for Harris and the democrats just like she supported Biden-Harris way back in 2020.

Trump's pathetic fake Swift support using AI blew up in his face. Harris just became a lot more popular thanks to Swift's fans rallying behind her all of a sudden.

I saw the news about that but haven't read it, but when I check the odds, Harris is now leading Trump, 1.95 to 2.05 as per Stake.

So this is the swing that Harris and her camp could have been waiting for. The last time I check it was still Trump leading amongst, bettors, but there is a sudden shift maybe because of the Taylor Swift support or as the result of the debate.

[Fiatless]

They are contradicting each other, Harris is actively trying trigger Trump on a few points to emphasize his flaws etc.  I dont feel the debate is going to be the deciding factor in the election judging it mid way, theres some fact checking to cap the Trump effect but its not overly different to other debates.

Many polls came up with reports about who was better in the debate. But most of them reported that Harris was better than Trump. However, statistics show that the debate might changed the minds of only 4% of the respondents about whom they would vote for. We still have a long time to go before the elections. I would have to wait until the close of the elections before placing my bet.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13836785/amp/Kamala-harris-donald-trump-winner-Debate-snap-poll.html

[stompix]

Trumpists in denial mode, he got trashed!
The moment your candidate is fact checked on a claim that illegal immigrants are robbing people's pets and eating them is the moment you realize he might not be the saviour of the world, right?

Stake has moved Kamala as favorite:


As for the Crypto President he was supposed to be, he never mentioned bitcoin even once,  and this should be a lesson, the moment he will/(if) become president he will forget everything about it also, just as he did with the coal industry, the oil industry, the wall and everything else.

[Taskford]

They are contradicting each other, Harris is actively trying trigger Trump on a few points to emphasize his flaws etc.  I dont feel the debate is going to be the deciding factor in the election judging it mid way, theres some fact checking to cap the Trump effect but its not overly different to other debates.

Many polls came up with reports about who was better in the debate. But most of them reported that Harris was better than Trump. However, statistics show that the debate might changed the minds of only 4% of the respondents about whom they would vote for. We still have a long time to go before the elections. I would have to wait until the close of the elections before placing my bet.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13836785/amp/Kamala-harris-donald-trump-winner-Debate-snap-poll.html

It seems everything is in favor with Harris since she manage to continue to take this lead. also for sure Trumps camp is in nervous mode regarding on this consistent polls result. I guess with this matter the race for presidency will became more intense especially that for sure Trump would provably conduct more PR to maximize his presence and win the heart of the voters. But I guess the past issues with Trump is haunting him and Harris would provably go out more stronger since people might think that its better to elect a woman president rather than a racist man who want to get the seat of power again.

Its like crypto stints of Trump is not working now but let see the further more developments since the same with you I will also watch how this drama goes and place my bet on near election since I guess we can get a good insights towards which of them really have a huge chance to win.

[Catenaccio]

Many polls came up with reports about who was better in the debate. But most of them reported that Harris was better than Trump. However, statistics show that the debate might changed the minds of only 4% of the respondents about whom they would vote for. We still have a long time to go before the elections. I would have to wait until the close of the elections before placing my bet.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13836785/amp/Kamala-harris-donald-trump-winner-Debate-snap-poll.html

In a debate, with two super biased moderators who tried as their best as possible to debate directly with Trump, as their ways to support Kamala Harris, but Trump was not beaten. It's a win for Trump.

Polls from biased media like this are not trusted and not good sources to see who is the winner of debate. Watch the debate and have your own thinking on each nominee and make own insightful conclusion.

It seems everything is in favor with Harris since she manage to continue to take this lead. also for sure Trumps camp is in nervous mode regarding on this consistent polls result.

I don't think they will be panic but Trump actually wasted some good opportunities to destroy Kamala in this debate. It's success of Kamala and two moderators to minimize failure and consequence for Kamala from this debate but she did not win it.

What's her plan that audience of this debate can know from her after 1 hour of debate?
Nothing. She only said "I have plan", no more details.

Years ago, I did not believe such things existed against Trump but this debate and two moderators told me that it actually existed.

[Poker Player]

As for the Crypto President he was supposed to be, he never mentioned bitcoin even once,  and this should be a lesson, the moment he will/(if) become president he will forget everything about it also, just as he did with the coal industry, the oil industry, the wall and everything else.

This is something I think about a lot. He surely went to the Bitcoin conference because he has people around him who will have advised him, for example his vice-presidential candidate and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are bitcoiners. But he went there to win votes and it is clear that bitcoin is not going to be a priority for him. Neither has he mentioned Bitcoin in this debate, nor in the previous one, nor in any public appearance other than the Bitcoin conference that I know of.

[stompix]

Neither has he mentioned Bitcoin in this debate, nor in the previous one, nor in any public appearance other than the Bitcoin conference that I know of.

He did an interview and it went terribly wrong:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6359799256112

"Who knows? Maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion dollars, hand them a little crypto check, right?" Trump suggested to Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo in an interview. "We'll hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our $35 trillion."

Obviously, the guy doesn't;t know a thing about crypto or Bitcoin, he probably thinks it's some sort of stocks or Paypal money at best, nor do I see him actually waiting one second of his life to learn more about it, he doesn't care about anything other than votes, and if he is elected then votes don't matter as he can't be president 3 times so he will just go after the money, shitcoind and mamecoins, pump and dump on hype and then that's it, and the morons who voted him for that would be left speechless, or at least I hope they won't open their mouths ever again!

[OgNasty]

Trumpists in denial mode, he got trashed!
The moment your candidate is fact checked on a claim that illegal immigrants are robbing people's pets and eating them is the moment you realize he might not be the saviour of the world, right?

Stake has moved Kamala as favorite:


As for the Crypto President he was supposed to be, he never mentioned bitcoin even once,  and this should be a lesson, the moment he will/(if) become president he will forget everything about it also, just as he did with the coal industry, the oil industry, the wall and everything else.

The town next to me had their swans eaten out of their community pond. The swans had been living and breeding there for decades. This was about 2 years ago in Arizona, so I am 100% positive that animals are being eaten by immigrants. I don’t know how bad it has become, but it isn’t imaginary. Maybe not worthy of a political talking point, but it is real.

[Zlantann]

Obviously, the guy doesn't;t know a thing about crypto or Bitcoin, he probably thinks it's some sort of stocks or Paypal money at best, nor do I see him actually waiting one second of his life to learn more about it, he doesn't care about anything other than votes, and if he is elected then votes don't matter as he can't be president 3 times so he will just go after the money, shitcoind and mamecoins, pump and dump on hype and then that's it, and the morons who voted him for that would be left speechless, or at least I hope they won't open their mouths ever again!

You are right, the Bitcoin system is not difficult to learn. Trump has not made any effort to understand the system which is why he speaks about the industry shallowly. Trump is talking about Bitcoin because he wants to get as many donations as he can get. His family are well known for shady business so it will be easy for them to promote shitcoins and make more money.   

The town next to me had their swans eaten out of their community pond. The swans had been living and breeding there for decades. This was about 2 years ago in Arizona, so I am 100% positive that animals are being eaten by immigrants. I don’t know how bad it has become, but it isn’t imaginary. Maybe not worthy of a political talking point, but it is real.

The recent claim by JD Vance that immigrants were abducting pets and eating them has been debunked by the local police. The story emanated from a Springfield Facebook group which cannot be proven to be true. This news can just emanate from an individual who wants to discredit the 15,000 to 20,000 in the small city. Except they have proof that the swan was eaten by immigrants, it might just be another rumour. Many other factors can make the swan to leave that location. But I am not also saying that these immigrants are innocent of the accusation.

[cabron]

Obviously, the guy doesn't;t know a thing about crypto or Bitcoin, he probably thinks it's some sort of stocks or Paypal money at best, nor do I see him actually waiting one second of his life to learn more about it, he doesn't care about anything other than votes, and if he is elected then votes don't matter as he can't be president 3 times so he will just go after the money, shitcoind and mamecoins, pump and dump on hype and then that's it, and the morons who voted him for that would be left speechless, or at least I hope they won't open their mouths ever again!

You are right, the Bitcoin system is not difficult to learn. Trump has not made any effort to understand the system which is why he speaks about the industry shallowly. Trump is talking about Bitcoin because he wants to get as many donations as he can get. His family are well known for shady business so it will be easy for them to promote shitcoins and make more money.   

The town next to me had their swans eaten out of their community pond. The swans had been living and breeding there for decades. This was about 2 years ago in Arizona, so I am 100% positive that animals are being eaten by immigrants. I don’t know how bad it has become, but it isn’t imaginary. Maybe not worthy of a political talking point, but it is real.

The recent claim by JD Vance that immigrants were abducting pets and eating them has been debunked by the local police. The story emanated from a Springfield Facebook group which cannot be proven to be true. This news can just emanate from an individual who wants to discredit the 15,000 to 20,000 in the small city. Except they have proof that the swan was eaten by immigrants, it might just be another rumour. Many other factors can make the swan to leave that location. But I am not also saying that these immigrants are innocent of the accusation.

Idk, the locals seem to be sure those guys killed their cats and are eating pets they could find roaming. We've seen locals reporting it on youtube, they can't just make it up they didn't even blame anyone.

But Damn! Kamala is leading again. Crazy stuff going and never have seen Kamala equipped she usually just laughs at things even when it's not funny. Very unusual for her to answer things. I don't see Trump trying much, it should be funny but maybe the rules are just not fit for funny Trump.

[Haunebu]

Obviously, the guy doesn't;t know a thing about crypto or Bitcoin, he probably thinks it's some sort of stocks or Paypal money at best, nor do I see him actually waiting one second of his life to learn more about it, he doesn't care about anything other than votes, and if he is elected then votes don't matter as he can't be president 3 times so he will just go after the money, shitcoind and mamecoins, pump and dump on hype and then that's it, and the morons who voted him for that would be left speechless, or at least I hope they won't open their mouths ever again!

Fact is that even Trump's supporters within this forum and elsewhere know that he is simply faking it to making it and it's seriously hilarious watching them trying to justify how he actually cares about cryptocurrencies.

They just want him to become the president for other reasons(Not crypto), but don't have the gall to actually admit it. Sad state of affairs.