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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1979927 times)
solex
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100 satoshis -> ISO code


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April 25, 2015, 08:02:46 AM
 #23041

Apropos of Cypherdoc's poll, I am posting a copy of my recent OP on the subject. This software problem has been my No.1 worry about Bitcoin's future for over 2 years now...

                        

Introducing the 1MBCON Advisory System which gives a quick overview of the risk conditions against timely transaction confirmations into the blockchain.

The debate has been thorough and extensive. Now the status of the risk needs to be tracked: average size of 1000 blocks (7 days) as a percentage of 1MB

End of Q1, 2015




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Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
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April 25, 2015, 10:06:18 AM
 #23042

The Fate of The Tech Bubble Is In The Hands Of Just One Company

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-24/fate-tech-bubble-hands-just-one-company



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April 25, 2015, 02:52:10 PM
 #23043

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April 25, 2015, 02:56:30 PM
 #23044

NotHatinJustTrollin
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April 25, 2015, 02:59:22 PM
 #23045




https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
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April 25, 2015, 03:02:27 PM
 #23046

Garzik:  "Hash power 4.3 Mpetaflops= 77,000 x Tianhe" (world's most powerful supercomputer)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=oRG0nzSUpSU#t=414
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April 25, 2015, 03:04:42 PM
 #23047


Effectively LTC has returned to the price where it initially started trading against BTC back in the summer of 2013.
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April 25, 2015, 03:40:07 PM
 #23048


Effectively LTC has returned to the price where it initially started trading against BTC back in the summer of 2013.

yes, LTC is not effective.
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April 25, 2015, 05:57:07 PM
 #23049

Bitcoin: A Cheap Call Option On A Revolutionary Tech, With Near-Term Catalysts

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/39542256-byrnehobart/3896726-bitcoin-a-cheap-call-option-on-a-revolutionary-tech-with-near-term-catalysts
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April 25, 2015, 07:06:14 PM
 #23050

A House with Many Doors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=9RtZrNPP26w#t=1570
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April 25, 2015, 08:08:05 PM
 #23051


chart linked by NotHatinJustTrollin:



hm, that's interesting. So USD tx volume is roughly stable but number of transactions skyrockets. This means the average amount of a tx is going down.

Any rationale for this?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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April 25, 2015, 08:16:17 PM
 #23052

It just corresponds to the fall in the USD price of BTC.

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April 25, 2015, 08:18:48 PM
 #23053


chart linked by NotHatinJustTrollin:



hm, that's interesting. So USD tx volume is roughly stable but number of transactions skyrockets. This means the average amount of a tx is going down.

Any rationale for this?


i think it was Bitpay that explained that Bitcoin is continuing to evolve as a payment network (routine everyday tx's).  i would also add that it probably also means more everyday tx's happening overseas in developing countries.
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April 25, 2015, 11:22:56 PM
 #23054

One theory might be that many of the transactions are tied in some way (perhaps indirectly) to mining. Thus they are denominated in BTC and in economic magnitude, tied to the mining output (which is a fixed rate in BTC). This could include mined coins making their way to and through exchanges to investors.

Another would be that much of the activity is tied to altcoin speculation (essentially a form of gambling) or expicit BTC-denominated gambling. That would tend to rise and fall with overall BTC wealth.

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April 25, 2015, 11:24:20 PM
 #23055

hm, that's interesting. So USD tx volume is roughly stable but number of transactions skyrockets. This means the average amount of a tx is going down.

Any rationale for this?
Number of transactions is an objective number that's easy to measure.

There's more uncertainty about USD volume, since there's no way to be 100% sure which output in a transaction is a spend and which one is change.
smooth
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April 25, 2015, 11:25:05 PM
 #23056

hm, that's interesting. So USD tx volume is roughly stable but number of transactions skyrockets. This means the average amount of a tx is going down.

Any rationale for this?
Number of transactions is an objective number that's easy to measure.

There's more uncertainty about USD volume, since there's no way to be 100% sure which output in a transaction is a spend and which one is change.

Is there a reason to expect this error to change over time?
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April 25, 2015, 11:27:00 PM
 #23057


Something I don't think I've explained very well yet is that the payment code proposal provides the missing "from address" that everybody wants, in a way that doesn't compromise privacy.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/From_address
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April 25, 2015, 11:28:06 PM
 #23058

Is there a reason to expect this error to change over time?
Quite possibly, as new wallets come into use that operate in ways different than what Blockchain's heuristics expect.

As transactions become more complex in general, the less accurate that estimate becomes.
smooth
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April 25, 2015, 11:31:07 PM
 #23059

Is there a reason to expect this error to change over time?
Quite possibly, as new wallets come into use that operate in ways different than what Blockchain's heuristics expect.

As transactions become more complex in general, the less accurate that estimate becomes.

I'd be interested in a specific hypothesis we could test. There seems to be a sustained trend over a period of years. I agree it is possible that wallets in use could be a factor. For example, Coinbase has gotten very large during this time period (though I'm not sure how much transaction activity is tied to them as opposed to number of registered users).

On the other hand I'm not sure that shifting wallet adoption overall has been such a continuous process and I think the simpler explanation is that transactions actually are getting smaller (or remaining constant in BTC terms). I threw out a couple of arguably plausible reasons why that might be, but that is certainly not a complete list, and it may not even be true. The Bitpay hypothesis (more retail-type transactions which are smaller than speculator transactions) is another one.
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April 26, 2015, 01:57:04 AM
 #23060


chart linked by NotHatinJustTrollin:



hm, that's interesting. So USD tx volume is roughly stable but number of transactions skyrockets. This means the average amount of a tx is going down.

Any rationale for this?


just brainstorming...

if we take a closer look at the last 2 yrs in log plots, and completely ignore the second gox bubble, usd tx volume has increased about 2.5-3x. 

if we take a closer look at the last 2 yrs of the number of tx excl pop add., for the same range of time, txs have increased about 4x.  its not crazy different. a lot of usd tx volume centered around gox and huge prices.

there could also just be more micro tx being used in the economy (more xcp tx, colored coins, etc)

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