Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

...
i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.

I think we have a classic case of 'not seeing the forest for the trees' here.  I suggest you zoom out some.

i have and i see a top.

I wonder why the correction broke to the upside if we were just at the top?

double top?

[tvbcof]

...
i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.

I think we have a classic case of 'not seeing the forest for the trees' here.  I suggest you zoom out some.

i have and i see a top.

You are in good company.  Lotsa people do.  Of course lots of people also saw one in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc, etc.  I remember...I was there.  Remember vaguely that is.  There have been so many tops called that they sort of run together for me and I never paid much attention to any of them...happily.

[cypherdoc]

...
i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.

I think we have a classic case of 'not seeing the forest for the trees' here.  I suggest you zoom out some.

i have and i see a top.

You are in good company.  Lotsa people do.  Of course lots of people also saw one in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc, etc.  I remember...I was there.  Remember vaguely that is.  There have been so many tops called that they sort of run together for me and I never paid much attention to any of them...happily.

there will come a time...

[tvbcof]

i have and i see a top.

You are in good company.  Lotsa people do.  Of course lots of people also saw one in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc, etc.  I remember...I was there.  Remember vaguely that is.  There have been so many tops called that they sort of run together for me and I never paid much attention to any of them...happily.

there will come a time...

Of this I have not doubt.  I hope to recognize it and intend to bail prior if I can.  At this point I see nothing changing in the fundamentals which have launched PM's to multi-fold increases in values...at least values against other alternatives.  On top of that a good deal of my interest in having a PM position is associated with concerns about a monetary crisis in the fiat landscape of my locale, and these concerns are as strong as ever.

I don't think you, or almost anyone else for that matter, has the anything near the power it would take to shake PM's out of my tree.  (Jim Sinclair is about the only individual who would cause me to break stride and he has stated fairly recently that it is his mission to make such a call if/when the time comes.)  But if you have fun trying than by all means carry on.  Fun for everyone.

[cypherdoc]

i have and i see a top.

You are in good company.  Lotsa people do.  Of course lots of people also saw one in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc, etc.  I remember...I was there.  Remember vaguely that is.  There have been so many tops called that they sort of run together for me and I never paid much attention to any of them...happily.

there will come a time...

Of this I have not doubt.  I hope to recognize it and intend to bail prior if I can.  At this point I see nothing changing in the fundamentals which have launched PM's to multi-fold increases in values...at least values against other alternatives.  On top of that a good deal of my interest in having a PM position is associated with concerns about a monetary crisis in the fiat landscape of my locale, and these concerns are as strong as ever.

I don't think you, or almost anyone else for that matter, has the anything near the power it would take to shake PM's out of my tree.  (Jim Sinclair is about the only individual who would cause me to break stride and he has stated fairly recently that it is his mission to make such a call if/when the time comes.)  But if you have fun trying than by all means carry on.  Fun for everyone.

this is not fun.  its's serious business.  i am as pessimistic as you on the global outlook at this time.  i think we have a fiscal and monetary crisis at hand and that it will play out much differently than most people expect.

[tvbcof]

...

I don't think you, or almost anyone else for that matter, has the anything near the power it would take to shake PM's out of my tree.  (Jim Sinclair is about the only individual who would cause me to break stride and he has stated fairly recently that it is his mission to make such a call if/when the time comes.)  But if you have fun trying than by all means carry on.  Fun for everyone.

this is not fun.  its's serious business.  i am as pessimistic as you on the global outlook at this time.  i think we have a fiscal and monetary crisis at hand and that it will play out much differently than most people expect.

Firstly, in terms of a current crisis, I don't really think so.  The world works more or less the same way it has during the current cycle.  There are a mass of structures holding things together (e.g., derivitives) and the situation is tenuous, but things are much more like pre-crisis than they will be like post-crisis I suspect.  That said, I don't rule out the can being kicked down the road for decades.  Nor do I rule out things imploding tomorrow.  I agree that things will probably play out differently than most people suspect...including both you and I.

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.

[cypherdoc]

...

I don't think you, or almost anyone else for that matter, has the anything near the power it would take to shake PM's out of my tree.  (Jim Sinclair is about the only individual who would cause me to break stride and he has stated fairly recently that it is his mission to make such a call if/when the time comes.)  But if you have fun trying than by all means carry on.  Fun for everyone.

this is not fun.  its's serious business.  i am as pessimistic as you on the global outlook at this time.  i think we have a fiscal and monetary crisis at hand and that it will play out much differently than most people expect.

Firstly, in terms of a current crisis, I don't really think so.  The world works more or less the same way it has during the current cycle.  There are a mass of structures holding things together (e.g., derivitives) and the situation is tenuous, but things are much more like pre-crisis than they will be like post-crisis I suspect.  That said, I don't rule out the can being kicked down the road for decades.  Nor do I rule out things imploding tomorrow.  I agree that things will probably play out differently than most people suspect...including both you and I.

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.

i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much. 

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?

[tvbcof]

...

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.

i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much. 

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?

All of these issues have been dealt with effectively in the past so I don't see them as show-stoppers in the future.

I must say that I think it more probable that the future looks a bit more controlled than some sort of Mad Max world, so much of the (legitimate) concerns about physical security and such are not so significant.  But if we did happen to fall into the abyss I would rather take my chances with PM's than any other vehicle, and that includes Bitcoin.  With either Bitcoin or PM's one will have to ratchet up the amount of technical skill and effort required to protect their position to meet whatever threat level develops.  Difficult maybe, but not impossible.  At least not for everyone.  My guess is that far more people would have the native ability required to deal with PM's than they would with Bitcoin (in fringe scenarios that is.)

[cypherdoc]

...

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.

i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much. 

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?

All of these issues have been dealt with effectively in the past so I don't see them as show-stoppers in the future.

I must say that I think it more probable that the future looks a bit more controlled than some sort of Mad Max world, so much of the (legitimate) concerns about physical security and such are not so significant.  But if we did happen to fall into the abyss I would rather take my chances with PM's than any other vehicle, and that includes Bitcoin.  With either Bitcoin or PM's one will have to ratchet up the amount of technical skill and effort required to protect their position to meet whatever threat level develops.  Difficult maybe, but not impossible.  At least not for everyone.  My guess is that far more people would have the native ability required to deal with PM's than they would with Bitcoin (in fringe scenarios that is.)

actually, i don't see a Mad Max scenario either which is one of the reasons i'm bullish more on Bitcoin than gold.  i see the internet remaining open and relatively free altho we in Bitcoin may have more tunneling to do.  yes, we are going to deflate to a more realistic and frugal way of living and that means all of us, including Wall Street.  prices need to come down or else the world will go up in flames as we're starting to see riots just about everywhere.  we are going to clear the bad debts and reduce the derivatives mountain.   this means the USD will go up, gold and silver down, and we all get back to saving and a more constrained way of living.

and no, the Fed will not be able to save everyone's assets.  Ben is going to be punished severely and will go down in history as one of the worst central bankers that ever lived.

Bitcoin goes up b/c we're only one year into its bull and its too good of an idea; gold and silver will go down b/c they are at the end of a 12 yr bull.

[SkRRJyTC]

...

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.

i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much. 

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?

All of these issues have been dealt with effectively in the past so I don't see them as show-stoppers in the future.

I must say that I think it more probable that the future looks a bit more controlled than some sort of Mad Max world, so much of the (legitimate) concerns about physical security and such are not so significant.  But if we did happen to fall into the abyss I would rather take my chances with PM's than any other vehicle, and that includes Bitcoin.  With either Bitcoin or PM's one will have to ratchet up the amount of technical skill and effort required to protect their position to meet whatever threat level develops.  Difficult maybe, but not impossible.  At least not for everyone.  My guess is that far more people would have the native ability required to deal with PM's than they would with Bitcoin (in fringe scenarios that is.)

actually, i don't see a Mad Max scenario either which is one of the reasons i'm bullish more on Bitcoin than gold.  i see the internet remaining open and relatively free altho we in Bitcoin may have more tunneling to do.  yes, we are going to deflate to a more realistic and frugal way of living and that means all of us, including Wall Street.  prices need to come down or else the world will go up in flames as we're starting to see riots just about everywhere.  we are going to clear the bad debts and reduce the derivatives mountain.   this means the USD will go up, gold and silver down, and we all get back to saving and a more constrained way of living.

and no, the Fed will not be able to save everyone's assets.  Ben is going to be punished severely and will go down in history as one of the worst central bankers that ever lived.

Bitcoin goes up b/c we're only one year into its bull and its too good of an idea; gold and silver will go down b/c they are at the end of a 12 yr bull.

I really wish I understood what you mean and why you think the bolded part.

[cypherdoc]

...

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.

i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much.  

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?

All of these issues have been dealt with effectively in the past so I don't see them as show-stoppers in the future.

I must say that I think it more probable that the future looks a bit more controlled than some sort of Mad Max world, so much of the (legitimate) concerns about physical security and such are not so significant.  But if we did happen to fall into the abyss I would rather take my chances with PM's than any other vehicle, and that includes Bitcoin.  With either Bitcoin or PM's one will have to ratchet up the amount of technical skill and effort required to protect their position to meet whatever threat level develops.  Difficult maybe, but not impossible.  At least not for everyone.  My guess is that far more people would have the native ability required to deal with PM's than they would with Bitcoin (in fringe scenarios that is.)

actually, i don't see a Mad Max scenario either which is one of the reasons i'm bullish more on Bitcoin than gold.  i see the internet remaining open and relatively free altho we in Bitcoin may have more tunneling to do.  yes, we are going to deflate to a more realistic and frugal way of living and that means all of us, including Wall Street.  prices need to come down or else the world will go up in flames as we're starting to see riots just about everywhere.  we are going to clear the bad debts and reduce the derivatives mountain.   this means the USD will go up, gold and silver down, and we all get back to saving and a more constrained way of living.

and no, the Fed will not be able to save everyone's assets.  Ben is going to be punished severely and will go down in history as one of the worst central bankers that ever lived.

Bitcoin goes up b/c we're only one year into its bull and its too good of an idea; gold and silver will go down b/c they are at the end of a 12 yr bull.

I really wish I understood what you mean and why you think the bolded part.

have you bought gasoline recently?  or food for that matter?  Bernanke f*ck does a QEternity with the Dow and all essential commodities at almost record highs.  he panicked and the smart money knows this.  now gas is at its highest ever here in the US and exploding higher abroad.  why do you think ppl are rioting round the world especially in the Middle East?  no, its not b/c of a stupid video.  those ppl are way smarter than we give them credit for.  it's b/c of the inflationary policies of the Fed has made basic living untenable for the rest of the world.  his emphasis on driving stocks higher has distorted everything, including the price of gold and silver to the point where they system is going to reverse; and hard.  i think we've topped in the stock market for many years to come and are going to go down and test some wicked ass lows.  gold and silver are going to follow or in fact lead.

[slothbag]

That scenario is the most logical outcome, and I do believe we are headed that way.. but the question is how long can the powers that be keep the sinking ship afloat..

I guess the most prominent breaking point at the moment is cost of living, prices of fuel and food etc.  Perhaps we are only another year or two away from worldwide riots related to food & petrol costs?

Which suggests if you can get involved in a self sufficient community that produces its own food etc then you may be able to shield yourself from upcoming hardship..  and that self sufficient community should use Bitcoin

[tvbcof]

That scenario is the most logical outcome, and I do believe we are headed that way.. but the question is how long can the powers that be keep the sinking ship afloat..

I guess the most prominent breaking point at the moment is cost of living, prices of fuel and food etc.  Perhaps we are only another year or two away from worldwide riots related to food & petrol costs?

Which suggests if you can get involved in a self sufficient community that produces its own food etc then you may be able to shield yourself from upcoming hardship..  and that self sufficient community should use Bitcoin

Ultimately I would like to see a situation where each 'self sufficient community', and other bodies who have something of potential value, issue their own crypto-currency.  If the organization is managed well (including how it's currency solution is implemented and maintained) then it's monetary system prospers and the members who make up the organization benefit.

I hope that Bitcoin offers something of a proof of concept to inspire movement toward the aforementioned scenario, but have to admit that things could be somewhat prettier than what we are seeing in Bitcoin-land these days.  Oh well.

[Dusty]

Ultimately I would like to see a situation where each 'self sufficient community', and other bodies who have something of potential value, issue their own crypto-currency.  If the organization is managed well (including how it's currency solution is implemented and maintained) then it's monetary system prospers and the members who make up the organization benefit.

The problem of such a proposal is that if the community is (even not so) small their cryptocurrency is prone to 51% attack.

But they can get a bunch of bitcoins and use them to overcome that risk, there are really not many drawbacks.

[tvbcof]

Ultimately I would like to see a situation where each 'self sufficient community', and other bodies who have something of potential value, issue their own crypto-currency.  If the organization is managed well (including how it's currency solution is implemented and maintained) then it's monetary system prospers and the members who make up the organization benefit.

The problem of such a proposal is that if the community is (even not so) small their cryptocurrency is prone to 51% attack.

That does not concern me a whole lot.  Easy enough to white-list valid blocks if one is not so concerned about centralization.  And in a freely chosen community-based crypto-accounting system centralization is not such a concern.

But they can get a bunch of bitcoins and use them to overcome that risk, there are really not many drawbacks.

There were a number of trade offs made in the design of Bitcoin.  All in all I am amazed at how prescient the balance the designer choose was, but different designs might fit different problems better.

My thought would be to induce people to use a given solution because it serves there needs best rather than force them into a solution through either lack of options more blatant expressions of force.  In this way the best solutions (for the user) will survive and even better ones will evolve.

[molecular]

why does gold fold like a cheap suit everytime stocks drop or the USD rises?  doesn't it have any more staying power than that?

what do my sleepy detectors tell me? are you, cypherdoc, in fact, TROLLING?!?

[cypherdoc]

why does gold fold like a cheap suit everytime stocks drop or the USD rises?  doesn't it have any more staying power than that?

what do my sleepy detectors tell me? are you, cypherdoc, in fact, TROLLING?!?

So you, as a voice of reason, would prefer to only hear pro gold opinions?

Why don't you declare victory like SK and Matthew LM?  Then everyone around here could pat you on the back like a good boy.

[labestiol]

No, we like to hear your bearish opinions on PM. I still disagree with it, but it definitely helps to question my reasoning.

I agree with most of what you say, except the fact that they'll avoid cheapening the dollar, to avoid the dangerous consequences of it.
They have a debt to pay back, that doesn't work with a strong dollar policy. If that triggers revolutions in other countries, too bad for the people, but that's a good opportunity to place some puppet as a liberator.

As for the current price action, we still are in this 1750-1800 range. So the action on the last 4 weeks was just noise. Once we have a clear breakout up or down, that'll be a signal.

[cypherdoc]

No, we like to hear your bearish opinions on PM. I still disagree with it, but it definitely helps to question my reasoning.

I agree with most of what you say, except the fact that they'll avoid cheapening the dollar, to avoid the dangerous consequences of it.
They have a debt to pay back, that doesn't work with a strong dollar policy. If that triggers revolutions in other countries, too bad for the people, but that's a good opportunity to place some puppet as a liberator.

As for the current price action, we still are in this 1750-1800 range. So the action on the last 4 weeks was just noise. Once we have a clear breakout up or down, that'll be a signal.

then you're going to have to explain to me why the Yen has been going up for the last coupla decades in the face of a growing debt/GDP of approx. 230% and despite the printing of trillions of Yen to stimulate the economy.  no modern financial system with a mature bond market has ever had a hyperinflation.

[cypherdoc]

silverbox, you're about to lose all your gains on GPL.  sell while you can.