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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807457 times)
tvbcof
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September 05, 2012, 07:23:57 PM
 #3121


That must be because everyone is expecting the world's financial systems to switch to Bitcoin I guess and gold is a forgotten relic (which just happens to keep doubling in lock step with the crumbling of other financial systems...)


actually lotsa ppl around here point to the market cap of Bitcoin vs gold and scoff at such an idea.  i wonder how much the "awareness" of Bitcoin prevents ppl from throwing more fiat into gold.  that hesitation alone could be a substantial force.

Although it did for me to some extent, I cannot imagine that the effect is more than negligible given the size of the respective markets.  In my case I continued to accumulate physical PM's with only a short break to take the Bitcoin position I wanted to have.

As we've discussed previously, the opposite is not true and a tiny shift to Bitcoin from PM positions (or their growth) could have a massive impact on Bitcoin.  That, among other things, is why I hold a certain amount of hope for 'jackpot' returns on my Bitcoin speculation.  The longer Bitcoin proves itself as a solid solution, the more possible this becomes.

I personally do not believe that Bitcoin would sustain more than a tiny fraction of the world's exchange traffic and survive in anything like the form we know today.  OTOH, if it is seen as something of a reserve currency itself, and/or if intervention from authorities limits utilization in exchange form, I feel that it could have a decently long and very bright life expectancy.


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September 06, 2012, 02:51:43 PM
 #3122

Hmm.  those PM's seem to be going umm.. UP?

This thread was started 3/13:

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690


today 9/6:

Bitcoin 10.81 (up ~100%)

Gold 1706   (up ~1%)


BTC seems to be holding steady, after the 35% crash, in the 10-11 range.

Gold seems to be very much alive and uncollapsed. (Cypher is your target for gold still 400??  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg800017#msg800017)

BTC is still outperforming gold.


GPL 2.09  (Silver lg  @ 1.98)  Huh, look at that.  Silverbox is making money on his stock pick.. 
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September 06, 2012, 03:09:56 PM
 #3123

Hmm.  those PM's seem to be going umm.. UP?  Finally.

This thread was started 3/13:

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690


today 9/6:

Bitcoin 10.81 (up ~100%)

Gold 1706   (up ~1%)


BTC seems to be holding steady, after the 35% crash, in the 10-11 range.

Gold seems to be very much alive and uncollapsed. (Cypher is your target for gold still 400??  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg800017#msg800017)

BTC is still outperforming gold.


GPL 2.09  (Silver lg  @ 1.98)  Huh, look at that.  Silverbox is making money on his stock pick..  


yeah, eventually, but its sure taking its damn time. Grin

anyways, so far, i've still made the best trade swapping pm's for Bitcoin.  now if this stock mkt thing would just go down...
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September 07, 2012, 12:54:48 PM
 #3124

USDX now under support... gold and silver now above resistance... stocks about to challenge their may highs...

Is the corner broken?

How about now?

i think you're going to be in trouble.

Certainly now...
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September 07, 2012, 02:02:28 PM
 #3125



GPL 2.18  (Silver lg  @ 1.98)


Cypher did you cover your SLV, SLW, RGLD, GG yet?
cypherdoc
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September 07, 2012, 02:41:19 PM
 #3126



GPL 2.18  (Silver lg  @ 1.98)


Cypher did you cover your SLV, SLW, RGLD, GG yet?

yep, quite a long time ago.  its somewhere here in the thread. 
tvbcof
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September 07, 2012, 03:07:00 PM
 #3127


GPL 2.18  (Silver lg  @ 1.98)

Cypher did you cover your SLV, SLW, RGLD, GG yet?

yep, quite a long time ago.  its somewhere here in the thread. 

I'm glad that we PM bulls were able to help save you from such a precarious financial position.  You can thank us later Smiley


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September 08, 2012, 01:55:24 AM
 #3128

The young Ben Bernanke  Grin

He always knew what he wanted to be when he grew up:



Lifted from Financial Armageddon
smoothie
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September 08, 2012, 07:44:48 AM
 #3129

George Soros just bought $130,000,000 worth of gold.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leApG5h-Qmw&feature=g-all-u

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conspirosphere.tk
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September 08, 2012, 08:56:18 AM
 #3130

From now on there is the serious chance that PM can surpass BTC in price growth.
Yesterday Jim Sinclair (the only one who predicted gold @1600 USD several years before that happended, with only an error of a few months) said that gold will go to 3500 USD (but without giving a timing), and others argue that silver may well go even better, going toward the secular long-term gold-silver price ratio of 15.
You have been warned.

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September 08, 2012, 02:50:00 PM
 #3131

From now on there is the serious chance that PM can surpass BTC in price growth.
Yesterday Jim Sinclair (the only one who predicted gold @1600 USD several years before that happended, with only an error of a few months) said that gold will go to 3500 USD (but without giving a timing), and others argue that silver may well go even better, going toward the secular long-term gold-silver price ratio of 15.
You have been warned.

your whole analysis assumes the PTB can control markets.  if they could do that then why did stocks in 2000, 2008 and the housing market all crash?  i will give you the fact that momentum is currently on your side but depending on your viewpoint of where we are in history linear assumptions from the past could easily be derailed to everyone's shock and amazement.
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September 08, 2012, 03:04:41 PM
 #3132

wait...what?

yes, the PTB will lose control of this situation

and that is when metals come into their own

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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September 08, 2012, 03:11:47 PM
 #3133

wait...what?

yes, the PTB will lose control of this situation

and that is when metals come into their own

that's one perspective.  another is that this whole debt leveraging debacle since 1971 is a result of USD debasement with a consequent ramp in all asset classes.  gold did not react to this globalized inflation until the year 2001 and depending on how you look at it is the last asset class to react as the system has reached its bubble top in aggregate. don't forget it did nothing but go down btwn 1980 and 2001.  the rest of the system seems to be breaking as the stock mkt has gone sideways since 2000, the housing mkt has dumped and is skating along the bottom.  economies are going into the tank as we speak but the financialization continues.

IF the system breaks and the PTB can't control the slide, everything could crash including gold as the USD skyrockets from the debt liquidation.   i do understand your point though that gold might do the opposite and soar.  that's what makes it confusing.  for the umpteenth time, i just don't think gold can serve its supposed function as a world reserve currency in today's day and age.
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September 08, 2012, 03:17:29 PM
 #3134

for the umpteenth time, i just don't think gold can serve its supposed function as a world reserve currency in today's day and age.

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> I hear this a lot from the "barbarous relic" camp and I fail to see why.  Au is divisible in very small increments, and can be valued at any price denominated in fiat currency.

>Of course not...that is why we have Bitcoin...   Grin

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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September 08, 2012, 03:26:26 PM
 #3135

your whole analysis assumes the PTB can control markets.

No, I assume that they are starting to lose it. And that's why I am bullish on PM.

  if they could do that then why did stocks in 2000, 2008 and the housing market all crash?

Because they are losing it.

  i will give you the fact that momentum is currently on your side but depending on your viewpoint of where we are in history linear assumptions from the past could easily be derailed to everyone's shock and amazement.

Until China, India, Russia, and Middle East keep stacking phyzz, I think it's a good idea to follow the global trend, which I cannot fathom how could be derailed.

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September 08, 2012, 03:49:06 PM
 #3136

your whole analysis assumes the PTB can control markets.

No, I assume that they are starting to lose it. And that's why I am bullish on PM.

  if they could do that then why did stocks in 2000, 2008 and the housing market all crash?

Because they are losing it.

  i will give you the fact that momentum is currently on your side but depending on your viewpoint of where we are in history linear assumptions from the past could easily be derailed to everyone's shock and amazement.

Until China, India, Russia, and Middle East keep STOP stacking phyzz, I think it's a good idea to follow the global trend, which I cannot fathom how could be derailed.

ftfy.

i think they are losing it too so we can agree on that.  i'll also give you that gold could skyrocket in a global collapse scenario.  it is hard to buck the momentum thats for sure but i think gold fails to make a new high and would actually collapse in a stock market selloff.  time will tell.

we are right at an inflection point.  could go either way.  new, sustained rally in stocks and thus gold or a double top failure.  i know everything looks rosy from the CB liquidity camp and ramp.  the skys the limit.  i thought it was disgusting how Draghi fawned like a rock star in front of the cameras Thursday after his announcement and surely markets ate it up.  everything for the banksters!  price stability!  oh, not for essentials of course; just financial assets!

there's a small part of me that wishes gold would ramp and crush all their financial holdings.  at least i got my small pile leftover.  but then again, i don't think gold could serve our present day needs even though it seems like the logical choice of reserve currency since no one has heard of Bitcoin (at least until the Romney Effect perhaps).  i also don't take great comfort in CB's buying gold at this point.  weren't they selling in 2001?  if Ben were really smart he'd precipitate a selloff in gold and crush all his CB competitors.

i know these are all the same 'ol arguments from last year but i still see this logic. 
tvbcof
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September 08, 2012, 04:24:30 PM
 #3137

From now on there is the serious chance that PM can surpass BTC in price growth.

That would represent a giant fail for Bitcoin IMHO, though as always I believe that anyone dabbling with Bitcoin should still expect a very real possibility of a 100% loss.  They can reduce this risk by taking profits if they are lucky enough to see them however.  I'll do so if/when we see something around $100/BTC.

Yesterday Jim Sinclair (the only one who predicted gold @1600 USD several years before that happended, with only an error of a few months) said that gold will go to 3500 USD (but without giving a timing), and others argue that silver may well go even better, going toward the secular long-term gold-silver price ratio of 15.
You have been warned.

I think that Sinclair is on record as expecting a lot more (e.g., "Alf's numbers") in the event of a crisis so I'm taking his new(-ish) $3500 as a status quo growth estimate.  It's less than one more doubling and we've already seen several so it seems eminently possible and something of a yawn to me.

As for silver, the most recent thing I read was some article exploring peak production issues.  With the associated reality that

 - much silver production is a by-product of other industrial metals mining which would be effected by an economic down-turn,
 - silver has it's own industrial uses and is almost irreplaceable for some of these including ones in the energy sector,
 - silver can shape-shift between industrial and monetary uses due to it's history
 - inventory is almost certainly pretty thin and much reclamation has already occurred
 - is way under it's historic gold ratio.

I could see silver going quite ballistic.  Much more than gold (but not as much as Bitcoin which I believe is potentially hugely undervalued at this time.)


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September 08, 2012, 04:34:11 PM
 #3138

Don't get me riled up!! I'll go Ballistic!!



or maybe my dog will! Wink
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September 08, 2012, 06:04:34 PM
 #3139

From now on there is the serious chance that PM can surpass BTC in price growth.

Without real issue for BTC, I seriously doubt it. Sure PM are set up for a nice long rally, but BTC have so much upside potential that it should easily beat the metals

wait...what?

yes, the PTB will lose control of this situation

and that is when metals come into their own

I also doubt that. Lot of PM bugs thinks TPTB want a strong dollar (and thus low metal), but I disagree with that.
A weak dollar helps them a lot : devalue their debt, reduce trade imbalance, make the BRICS pay of bigger price to get ze gold.
Of course that's a controlled weakening, they don't want hyperinflation either, thus the correction we had after US downgrade last year.
But a strong dollar is just bad for them IMO

for the umpteenth time, i just don't think gold can serve its supposed function as a world reserve currency in today's day and age.

Again, the same argument Tongue
Patience, Rome wasn't build in a day. For the time being, there's no real alternative.

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September 08, 2012, 06:52:26 PM
 #3140

What happened to all of Cyphers supporters?  Who said he was right about the big crash in the stock market and collapse in PMs that were about to doom us all..

If they don't show up pretty soon to help him out, I might have to switch sides and argue for the collapse of PM's Wink
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