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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806432 times)
miscreanity
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December 04, 2012, 05:06:19 PM
 #3721

From KWN:

Quote from: Robert Fitzwilson
Suppression will be with us until the powerful acquire and confiscate as much of the metals as possible, and then the currency will be reset.  Trillions of wealth will move from holders of paper wealth to those entities holding gold, silver and energy assets.

... and Bitcoin Smiley

It's a game. There is an illusion masking the gold pricing mechanism; it is the same one obscuring the fundamentals that are supporting Bitcoin. It's a war of attrition, and whoever blinks first, loses. Time is on gold's side (and Bitcoin, silver, etc).

Quote from: Eric Sprott
... we ended up buying about 47 times more silver than gold, but it’s only available 7/1 for investment because most silver has to go into industrial uses.

At a GSR of 1:7 a silver holder would have about 720% more purchasing power than there is at 1:51 today. If the ratio does fall that far, averaging down every 10, and finally at 7, there would still be well over 300% gain. Aside from Bitcoin, and perhaps some other less certain investments, silver could easily be the best returning buy-and-hold strategy for the next few years.

The psychological impact of a year-end price decline in precious metals would be enormous. Short-sighted holders would be inclined to let go, while large accumulators scoop it up with abandon. This is no accident, and it has no bearing on reality - supply and demand of promissory notes is completely different from supply and demand of whatever asset the promissory notes represent.

World leaders seem to be hoping that the progress curve, which has been increasing geometrically, will prevent further collapse of the global economy. The issue with this is that the traditional economic system that they are trying to support is incompatible with the structure that is accelerating the growth.

For now, Bitcoin is much more interesting than the sluggish decay of the necrotic western hegemony. It appears that $12.60 has been tentatively breached to the upside; from here, $13 and ever whole dollar above will pose a challenge. In particular, $15 is a strong battleground because after that there is little standing in the way of a rise to the $30 range ($17-18, $20, and $25 are relatively minor resistance points). An overshoot would likely push the price up to double the prior high, which would be ~$35 on a weekly closing basis and ~$60 on a daily closing basis.

Finally, here is some perspective from FellowTraveler, especially on the notion that there will be a dynamic monetary ecosystem, not just a single currency; Bitcoin may dominate several years from now, but it will not be alone.

Edit: First Tuesday of the month - employment reports, CoT cut-off, etc... price knockdown to be expected; concurrent USD decline ominous for gov't
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cypherdoc
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December 04, 2012, 05:43:23 PM
 #3722

Update:

Bitcoin:  +135%

Gold:  +1%

Difference:  +134% advantage Bitcoin!

GPL:  -16% silverbox long

GG:  +17% cypherdoc short  Wink

Here we go again..  Where did you post your initial position in GG?? hmm??  I can pick some random thing and say that I opened a position in the past and that I'm showing a profit as well....   The only thing that you concretely stated when you opened the position and then stated when you closed you LOST money on..  

ok, if u insist.  it was up 18% before this morning's bounce:

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December 04, 2012, 07:32:11 PM
 #3723

Gold:  +1%, really?

cypherdoc
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December 04, 2012, 08:18:29 PM
 #3724

Gold:  +1%, really?


actually the Bitcoin advantage over gold is vastly understated since Bitcoin's inception in 1/09.  but there have been a few guys here on the thread who have insisted that we use the beginning of this thread as a starting point to measure gold vs. Bitcoin performance.  whatever.  i'll have u note that 3d after starting this thread Bitcoin got smashed by a Bitcoinica news event which took Bitcoin from $5.40 to $4.50 in a day or so.  but even so, Bitcoin is destroying the gold/silver non-performance.
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December 04, 2012, 08:19:07 PM
 #3725

Gold:  +1%, really?


+1% from the start of this thread, when gold was 1690, when Cypher said a collapse in gold was imminent!!  Almost a year later, gold remains uncollapsed Wink
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December 04, 2012, 08:20:32 PM
 #3726

Gold:  +1%, really?


+1% from the start of this thread, when gold was 1690, when Cypher said a collapse in gold was imminent!!  Almost a year later, gold remains uncollapsed Wink

hey i'll take a slow collapse.  the important thing is i swapped out the vast majority of my gold and silver for Bitcoin when it counted.

btw, i went publicly bearish on gold last year August 2011 right before the top when i started the first gold thread.
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December 05, 2012, 12:37:15 AM
 #3727

Zerohedge Reporting on Deflation:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-04/sobering-stuff

One off NP-Hard.
miscreanity
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December 05, 2012, 01:02:46 AM
 #3728


Treasury Scarcity to Grow as Fed Buys 90% of New Bonds

So asset values are set to fall by vast amounts, yet fiat is being produced to continue purchasing bonds (revenue on toxic assets is woefully insufficient for the required debt servicing); the real economy collapses underneath as the currency expands in the spotlight.

There are very few pools of wealth that protect against that situation, particularly if you live in the belly of the beast.
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December 05, 2012, 02:27:43 AM
 #3729


Treasury Scarcity to Grow as Fed Buys 90% of New Bonds

So asset values are set to fall by vast amounts, yet fiat is being produced to continue purchasing bonds (revenue on toxic assets is woefully insufficient for the required debt servicing); the real economy collapses underneath as the currency expands in the spotlight.

There are very few pools of wealth that protect against that situation, particularly if you live in the belly of the beast.

so you finally understand the essence of the deflationary theory.  i described this UST gov't black hole mechanism last year in our old gold thread and elsewhere more than a few times.  the additional problem is that investors continue to front run the Fed monetization of UST's hoping for capital appreciation, forget the yields.  there will be no money left over for anything else ala JGB bonds.  but that could change too as every disaster is a little different.  

not sure why you don't understand that the gold market has been driven by the same debt buildup facilitated by the Fed.  it's an antiquated system that is likely to plunge with everything else except Bitcoin.
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December 05, 2012, 04:28:40 PM
 #3730

plumbing new lows:

cypherdoc
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December 05, 2012, 05:37:51 PM
 #3731

this is a good article.  altho nothing earth shaking, sometimes ppl says things in a slightly different way that illuminates an incremental understanding of what Bitcoin is all about:

"Bitcoin offers what no other currency can. Access to everyone, everywhere."

 i would slightly change it to this: "Bitcoin offers what no other currency can. Access to everyone, everywhere, anytime."


http://www.reddit.com/tb/14b1dk
miscreanity
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December 05, 2012, 05:39:44 PM
 #3732

so you finally understand the essence of the deflationary theory.

I just reiterated the same thing I've been saying in this thread all along. It isn't hard to grasp deflation or inflation, but most don't get the interplay between the two.

Until real assets are completely exhausted and actual shortages cause widespread disruption (including starvation & death), monetary inflation can mask deflation.

Think of a runner on a treadmill. The runner is inflation, the treadmill is deflation. Until the runner's body gives out from dehydration or exhaustion, things continue as normal - at least in appearance.
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December 05, 2012, 06:31:05 PM
 #3733

so you finally understand the essence of the deflationary theory.

I just reiterated the same thing I've been saying in this thread all along. It isn't hard to grasp deflation or inflation, but most don't get the interplay between the two.

Until real assets are completely exhausted and actual shortages cause widespread disruption (including starvation & death), monetary inflation can mask deflation.

Think of a runner on a treadmill. The runner is inflation, the treadmill is deflation. Until the runner's body gives out from dehydration or exhaustion, things continue as normal - at least in appearance.

Oh, I got it:


PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
Spaceman_Spiff
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December 05, 2012, 06:42:43 PM
 #3734

Think of a runner on a treadmill. The runner is inflation, the treadmill is deflation. Until the runner's body gives out from dehydration or exhaustion, things continue as normal - at least in appearance.
No reason why inflation can't last forever.  It's easier (less short-term negative consequences) to grow the monetary base than to shrink it.  Without monetary base reduction, deflation cannot go on forever.

Until real assets are completely exhausted and actual shortages cause widespread disruption (including starvation & death), monetary inflation can mask deflation.

shortages + money printing = inflation (when money velocity and lending is constant, which usually isn't the case after a boom period).
cypherdoc
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December 05, 2012, 06:51:34 PM
 #3735

Think of a runner on a treadmill. The runner is inflation, the treadmill is deflation. Until the runner's body gives out from dehydration or exhaustion, things continue as normal - at least in appearance.
No reason why inflation can't last forever.  It's easier (less short-term negative consequences) to grow the monetary base than to shrink it.  Without monetary base reduction, deflation cannot go on forever.

Until real assets are completely exhausted and actual shortages cause widespread disruption (including starvation & death), monetary inflation can mask deflation.

shortages + money printing = inflation (when money velocity and lending is constant, which usually isn't the case after a boom period).

agreed.  so tell me, where is MV going?

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December 05, 2012, 06:54:40 PM
 #3736

i'm convinced that almost everyone here has never bought a piece of real estate and until you do, you'll never quite understand the primacy of debt:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122886.msg1341199#msg1341199
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December 05, 2012, 07:27:15 PM
 #3737

plumbing new lows:



I'm not all back in yet, buying oppurtunity, it dips much more and I'll buy back in to where I was.
cypherdoc
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December 05, 2012, 07:31:04 PM
 #3738

plumbing new lows:



I'm not all back in yet, buying oppurtunity, it dips much more and I'll buy back in to where I was.

you keep saying that.  give us a target.
Spaceman_Spiff
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December 05, 2012, 07:31:21 PM
 #3739


shortages + money printing = inflation (when money velocity and lending is constant, which usually isn't the case after a boom period).

agreed.  so tell me, where is MV going?



I know it is going down, which is typical for a recession.  And this can last for a very long period, just look at Japan.  Only, it won't last forever.
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December 05, 2012, 07:33:42 PM
 #3740


shortages + money printing = inflation (when money velocity and lending is constant, which usually isn't the case after a boom period).

agreed.  so tell me, where is MV going?



I know it is going down, which is typical for a recession.  And this can last for a very long period, just look at Japan.  Only, it won't last forever.

but its been going down since 1996.  Japan has been dropping for 30+ years.  "forever" is quite a long time investment horizon.
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