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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804775 times)
cypherdoc
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December 06, 2012, 07:30:14 PM
 #3801

miscreanity:  first of all, you need to back those graphs out another 10 yrs like the one's i've presented.   and then you'll see a topping pattern if not an outright decline in the charts you've presented.  and the other major problem is that you're forgetting that the USD is the world's reserve currency.  these countries aren't going anywhere in terms of credit creation if the US isn't providing it.  remember Triffin's Dilemma?
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December 06, 2012, 08:18:15 PM
 #3802

miscreanity:  first of all, you need to back those graphs out another 10 yrs like the one's i've presented.   and then you'll see a topping pattern if not an outright decline in the charts you've presented.

Now you want to take a broader look, after ridiculing gold-proponents for looking at long-term charts? The 'topping' may be due to changes in calculation methodologies, as well as the inability of capturing all relevant data. An argument could just as easily be made that this is simply a mid-trend plateau.

Consider this: if the derivative-related debt has declined to meet traditional debt levels, that means there's probably room to expand again.

The decline in derivatives and securitisation is primarily in the US. Every other region has either remained consistent or significantly increased issuance. That counter-flow is picking up the slack and looks to be on a trajectory to exceed old highs.

and the other major problem is that you're forgetting that the USD is the world's reserve currency.  these countries aren't going anywhere in terms of credit creation if the US isn't providing it.  remember Triffin's Dilemma?

The Triffin dilemma is a death knell for the dollar's current incarnation; either the dollar gets revalued, or it dies. That's positive for non-debt assets. Why do you think so many nations are scrambling for real assets and resources? No dependency on the dollar! This is write-off season, so the dollar will get a bump, but it's as temporary as it gets.

As for the USD being the world's reserve currency, that's only in name today. It's being assaulted from every front, and there's nothing to keep it in power beyond political hot air and grandiose posturing of an over-extended military.
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December 06, 2012, 08:28:51 PM
 #3803

miscreanity:  first of all, you need to back those graphs out another 10 yrs like the one's i've presented.   and then you'll see a topping pattern if not an outright decline in the charts you've presented.

Now you want to take a broader look, after ridiculing gold-proponents for looking at long-term charts? The 'topping' may be due to changes in calculation methodologies, as well as the inability of capturing all relevant data. An argument could just as easily be made that this is simply a mid-trend plateau.

actually, the argument i've made works better if we don't back those charts out.  we've plateaued or are declining.
Quote

Consider this: if the derivative-related debt has declined to meet traditional debt levels, that means there's probably room to expand again.

The decline in derivatives and securitisation is primarily in the US. Every other region has either remained consistent or significantly increased issuance. That counter-flow is picking up the slack and looks to be on a trajectory to exceed old highs.

and the other major problem is that you're forgetting that the USD is the world's reserve currency.  these countries aren't going anywhere in terms of credit creation if the US isn't providing it.  remember Triffin's Dilemma?

The Triffin dilemma is a death knell for the dollar's current incarnation; either the dollar gets revalued, or it dies. That's positive for non-debt assets. Why do you think so many nations are scrambling for real assets and resources? No dependency on the dollar! This is write-off season, so the dollar will get a bump, but it's as temporary as it gets.

As for the USD being the world's reserve currency, that's only in name today. It's being assaulted from every front, and there's nothing to keep it in power beyond political hot air and grandiose posturing of an over-extended military.

what goes up must come down.  this has been a poor quality rally.
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December 06, 2012, 10:15:34 PM
 #3804

this is why banks so strongly resist taking the writedowns as it would wipe them out. this is why they are letting delinquent homeowners live rent/mortgage free for years on end.  this is what is happening to Greece and the Northern European banks; the ECB keeps extending loan packages to enable the Greeks to repay their loans to these banks.  it isn't sustainable as you can't solve a debt problem with more debt.
I undestand this but... I undestand also that central banks can keep extending loans ad libitum because they have no limits and no constraints (not really, anyway).

So I guess it depends on who is the lender: while a normal bank or financial institution has to make his balance sheet work otherwise it can go bankrupt (as Lehman Bros), central banks have not, and they can do whatever they want, for any amount of time they desire: creating money for them is free, since it's their job.

Articoli bitcoin: Il portico dipinto
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December 06, 2012, 10:47:04 PM
 #3805

actually, the argument i've made works better if we don't back those charts out.  we've plateaued or are declining.

If your argument doesn't hold water at all scales, it's suspect and in need of revision.

what goes up must come down.  this has been a poor quality rally.

Really? That's it? You can do better. By that reasoning, Bitcoin is due to fall back to $5 or less. Gold hasn't finished coming up.

Yes, there are numerous aspects which have been weak during the equity really. Gold has not experienced the same - it's been under pressure the entire time, unlike the strained highs of stocks, bonds, and the dollar.

This is another round of investors being led around by the nose. Goldman made the same call a while back, and gold rose shortly thereafter.
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December 07, 2012, 12:12:57 AM
 #3806

Update:

silverbox's long GPL:  -17%  (let's see a screenshot silverbox!)

cypher's GG short:  

Bitcoin:  +148

Gold:  0%

Difference:  +148% advantage Bitcoin (destroying gold and silver)

silverbox, i'll never forget when Bitcoin went from $5.40 to $4.50 and you were thrilled to see that just so you could whoop it up that i was wrong despite everyone else's disappointment in the price drop.  

I'll never forget when you bet me 10 BTC that AAPL would drop to 500 in 2 months and lost.  (Thanks for the 10 BTC)

I'll also never forget when you said that you were putting on a massive short in GLD at 152 and to put this on the record!, then promtly lost your ass and had to cover.  Why did you cover if your certain gold is about to deflate?

Lets see you disclosing your positions on the day you start them, not cherry picking the winners  (like you did with your GLD short, which you lost money on)

I'll also never forget how you crow about selling silver at the peak, but you neglect to mention that you bought into BTC at 20+ with those funds and it promptly crashed to 2.

this is a forum for christs sake.  ppl post their opinions on where they think this or that investment is gonna go all the time with collapse or rocket descriptions.  who do you think you are coming in here and laying down "ground rules" for everyone's opinions as to what they think is gonna happen with this or that?  i don't see you asking for "evidence" as to exactly when other ppl stake their positions.  what's wrong with you?  is it perhaps that you're suffering from the permabull gold/silver religion that has afflicted so many?  are you afraid that they are reallly going to collapse?  i truly do see this as a possibility and you should respect my opinion just as i respect yours even though we disagree.  give me a 6 mo projection as to where gold and silver are going.

you asked me for transparency and i provided it in the form of a screenshot that i've posted on my GG position for all to see.  you know its valid as i announced it publicly here on this thread in Sept and in my updates to my subs.  you even questioned me about it at the time.  there is a date of 9/28/12 when i staked the position and you whooped it up assuming i established it before it went over $46.  so why do you have the audacity to claim i did a mockup based on exactly zero evidence?  so Mr. Transparency, where is your screenshot of GPL?  is it that the losses are way greater than 17%?

as you can see i'm a patient man with my investments and do not let emotions get involved in my trading.  many of my short positions on stocks, like Apple, were established initially back in the Spring.  waiting has been profitable.  you're clearly an impatient individual.  tops and bottoms are processes and the whole point of technical analysis is to call things before they happen to allow time for investors to prepare.  the analogy would be if you worked in the Twin Towers.  would you want to be warned a few days before or after the planes hit the buildings?  

here's where i got short initially.  yes, rode the thing down and then up.  hedging along the way has protected part of the profits.  hit some major homeruns along the way with PCLN, CMG, BBBY, WU, and now Apple.  i don't consider that a failure at all.  in fact, i'm having a great year by my measures.  a collapse is a collapse whether it slow or fast.  i'll take my shorts down if i'm proven wrong but not until then.

and yes, Bitcoin is destroying your precious gold and silver and GPL:




You don't state things as an opinion you state them as a fact.  Fact is we haven't had a collapse in gold/silver/DOW in the last 9 months.  Which 9 months ago I said we wouldn't, you said we would.  Who was right?HuhHuhHuhHuh

My projection for gold/silver over the next 6 months is that they will remain uncollapsed.  I think that it may downtrend slightly while the fiscal cliff is worked out and probably rise after that. 

I don't think you did a mockup, I said you were cherrypicking and a screenshot could be easily falsified, I don't think you modified it, I just think you cherry picked your best trade to make your point.  Why don't you list your worst trade over the same time period? 

So your techincal analysis led you to state that gold was about to collapse 9 months ago, yet its trading at exactly the same price it was 9 months ago, awesome call..  You put a short on that in your words was massive in GLD and covered at a loss, if your technical analysis was so accurate why in the world did you cover??  You should be riding it out, your a patient man right?

Uh I'm a BTC bull, I'm invested in BTC, when BTC goes up, I make money..  So BTC killing it, is great for me, not sure why you think it isn't??
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December 07, 2012, 12:39:57 AM
 #3807

Uh I'm a BTC bull, I'm invested in BTC, when BTC goes up, I make money..  So BTC killing it, is great for me, not sure why you think it isn't??

This is what cracks me up - nobody is arguing against Bitcoin Cheesy
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December 07, 2012, 12:59:53 AM
 #3808


You don't state things as an opinion you state them as a fact.  Fact is we haven't had a collapse in gold/silver/DOW in the last 9 months.  Which 9 months ago I said we wouldn't, you said we would.  Who was right?HuhHuhHuhHuh

a valued subscriber of mine last April told me to tell him what i think regardless of what the skeptics like you might say.  that has been some good advice for me and that's what i do.  i don't state my opinions as fact.

Quote

My projection for gold/silver over the next 6 months is that they will remain uncollapsed.  I think that it may downtrend slightly while the fiscal cliff is worked out and probably rise after that. 

that's lame.  i gave you a target of where i thought it "might" end up.  why don't you give us all a target and we'll see who's right in 6 months?

Quote
I don't think you did a mockup, I said you were cherrypicking and a screenshot could be easily falsified, I don't think you modified it, I just think you cherry picked your best trade to make your point.  Why don't you list your worst trade over the same time period? 

why should i when you won't even list one trade of yours?

Quote
So your techincal analysis led you to state that gold was about to collapse 9 months ago, yet its trading at exactly the same price it was 9 months ago, awesome call..  You put a short on that in your words was massive in GLD and covered at a loss, if your technical analysis was so accurate why in the world did you cover??  You should be riding it out, your a patient man right?

yes, its not collapsed.  yet.  but it also hasn't gone anywhere like many of you have "predicted".  the best trade of all was to trade out your gold for Bitcoin, as i have.  i don't have to get the entire "Gold collapsing, Bitcoin UP" trade right.  i'm happy with 75% of that call being right.  and i am hoping to eventually get 100% of that prediction right with time.

Quote
Uh I'm a BTC bull, I'm invested in BTC, when BTC goes up, I make money..  So BTC killing it, is great for me, not sure why you think it isn't??

you understate how much you derided Bitcoin when it went from $5.40 to $4.50 just so you could say "cypher was wrong".

all this wrangling with you is totally unproductive and unhelpful for ppl reading this thread.  i'm going to sign off from you if you'll let me.
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December 07, 2012, 01:06:10 AM
 #3809

this is why banks so strongly resist taking the writedowns as it would wipe them out. this is why they are letting delinquent homeowners live rent/mortgage free for years on end.  this is what is happening to Greece and the Northern European banks; the ECB keeps extending loan packages to enable the Greeks to repay their loans to these banks.  it isn't sustainable as you can't solve a debt problem with more debt.
I undestand this but... I undestand also that central banks can keep extending loans ad libitum because they have no limits and no constraints (not really, anyway).

So I guess it depends on who is the lender: while a normal bank or financial institution has to make his balance sheet work otherwise it can go bankrupt (as Lehman Bros), central banks have not, and they can do whatever they want, for any amount of time they desire: creating money for them is free, since it's their job.

so all you skeptics have to answer the question, why have we had 2 stock market crashes of 57% or so since 2000 and a housing crash which wiped out 4 major investment banks and an entire industry of subprime lenders?  are all of your memories that short?  do you not remember Ben cutting interest rates like crazy, shoving money out the door to all the banks, suspending short selling of financials, etc, etc?  so all of you have concluded this can never, ever happen again?  just how wise is that?
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December 07, 2012, 02:47:22 AM
 #3810

Albert Einstein Quote :

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

That's what govt arround US an EU are doing with their QE stuff, printing more and more.... so, are they Insane ? 

YES

Soap for BTC - Pure, Natural, Unique..   - PDF - BTCTalk - Email
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December 07, 2012, 04:14:43 AM
 #3811

so all you skeptics have to answer the question, why have we had 2 stock market crashes of 57% or so since 2000 and a housing crash which wiped out 4 major investment banks and an entire industry of subprime lenders?  are all of your memories that short?  do you not remember Ben cutting interest rates like crazy, shoving money out the door to all the banks, suspending short selling of financials, etc, etc?  so all of you have concluded this can never, ever happen again?  just how wise is that?

What? lol

That's what will happen no matter what course of action is taken at this point.

Here are the options for the higher-ups:
  • Give up and allow collapse with the understanding that this guarantees widespread havoc, potentially resulting in civil war and extensive deaths due to just-in-time societal structure failing.
  • Print like the dickens in the hope that collapse can be staved off long enough for real growth to catch up, although there's a possibility that hyperinflation could be triggered and bring about the outcome of option #1.

So the choices are between certain doom, and not-so-certain doom. Which would you choose?

The Fed, along with the rest of the world's governments, banks, many mega-corporations, and oligarchic familial legacies, is caught between a rock and a hard place. Every bit of support will be necessary to attempt the process of 'threading the needle' so relative stability can be maintained until global economies are able to naturally stabilise.

There's no way to secure complete obscurity of their operations, so thinking individuals and organisations will catch on and be able to take advantage of the circumstances. If too many of them do that, then the Fed will have a more difficult job of it. As much preparation must be done to lay the groundwork of a replacement socio-econo-political structure as possible before the decaying system completely falls apart.

Now you should be able to see that this has nothing to do with a belief that these sort of things won't happen again. It's like a man who's had a heart attack and has woken up to his mortality - he now wants to do everything he can to pass on his knowledge to his children in case he doesn't last long enough to see them grow up. He has reflected on his life and seen his mistakes, but he cannot undo what is done, so he does what he can from here on.

As mistaken as government policies are, the intentions may have been good. Of course, the road to hell is paved with them...
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December 07, 2012, 07:55:57 PM
 #3812

Gold line called me again, i told them not to call me anymore last time....

"protect your money!" she says

I told her that IT'S OVER: Goldman Calls The End Of The Great Gold Bull Market

she said " Oh that's probably just a prank"

i loled and told her i had to go.

F'ing gold telemarketers, no wonder gold is in a bubble....

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December 07, 2012, 10:15:03 PM
 #3813


The correlation between interest rates and gold prices clearly exists, but it's loose and with a lot of lag (particularly in one of the directions.)  It makes some sense that there would be at least some correlation, and also a fair amount of lag since people (with money) would need to re-train their brain to make investment decisions decisively favoring one vs. the other.  So, when I see real interest rates turn decisively I'll start to think about what the ramifications might be and looking for signs that it's impacting gold prices (and other things.)

Seems to me that the driving force behind gold demand is more global sovereign wealth concern about structural failures in the existing monetary regimes than individual Western investors hung up on interest rates these days also.  No matter what, I'm sure all stay pretty fully in physical Au until the U.S. runs out of German physical to satiate the Chinese appetite to see what kinds of fireworks transpire.

F'ing gold telemarketers, no wonder gold is in a bubble....

They've never hassled me.  Thankfully.  If they did, I'd tell them that I'm into Bitcoin and it's the next big thing and I'm certain to be rich like some king of antiquity because of it.


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December 08, 2012, 11:40:18 AM
 #3814

Miscreanity; have you ever bought a piece of real estate?
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December 08, 2012, 06:25:00 PM
 #3815

Miscreanity; have you ever bought a piece of real estate?

Regarding your post on real estate, we appear to have diametrically-opposed perspectives on investing in it. Although I've flipped, my primary focus has been commercial revenue generation. Price appreciation is always a secondary concern behind flow of funds. This is a long-term vs. short-term split. In terms of consistency, the former is like farming and the latter is closer to hunting; neither are guaranteed, but the former is less likely to result in going hungry.

Yes.
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December 08, 2012, 06:43:22 PM
 #3816

Miscreanity; have you ever bought a piece of real estate?

Regarding your post on real estate, we appear to have diametrically-opposed perspectives on investing in it. Although I've flipped, my primary focus has been commercial revenue generation. Price appreciation is always a secondary concern behind flow of funds. This is a long-term vs. short-term split. In terms of consistency, the former is like farming and the latter is closer to hunting; neither are guaranteed, but the former is less likely to result in going hungry.

Yes.

that's good as i hope it gives you a better understanding of the importance of the debt buildup.  i wonder though whether you invested in a consortium or as an individual.  all my RE deals have been done individually and there were times where i personally was responsible for making mortgage payments of over $12K per mo.  while i never had to be in a position of defaulting on a payment, there was always an uncomfortable nagging feeling of having that much exposure.  i made a decision around 2008 to pay everything off and now have had the benefit of being debt free for almost 5 yrs.  it is truly liberating.

iirc, after 30 yr of a fixed mortgage on a $1M loan you will have paid approx $3.5M back to the bank.  someone throw that into a mortgage calculator to check my numbers.  certainly if the USD drops during that time and the RE goes up you're good; but if deflation kicks in caused by some trivial little currency like Bitcoin, then you're in big trouble.
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December 08, 2012, 08:10:10 PM
 #3817

Miscreanity; have you ever bought a piece of real estate?

Regarding your post on real estate, we appear to have diametrically-opposed perspectives on investing in it. Although I've flipped, my primary focus has been commercial revenue generation. Price appreciation is always a secondary concern behind flow of funds. This is a long-term vs. short-term split. In terms of consistency, the former is like farming and the latter is closer to hunting; neither are guaranteed, but the former is less likely to result in going hungry.

Yes.

that's good as i hope it gives you a better understanding of the importance of the debt buildup.  i wonder though whether you invested in a consortium or as an individual.  all my RE deals have been done individually and there were times where i personally was responsible for making mortgage payments of over $12K per mo.  while i never had to be in a position of defaulting on a payment, there was always an uncomfortable nagging feeling of having that much exposure.  i made a decision around 2008 to pay everything off and now have had the benefit of being debt free for almost 5 yrs.  it is truly liberating.

iirc, after 30 yr of a fixed mortgage on a $1M loan you will have paid approx $3.5M back to the bank.  someone throw that into a mortgage calculator to check my numbers.  certainly if the USD drops during that time and the RE goes up you're good; but if deflation kicks in caused by some trivial little currency like Bitcoin, then you're in big trouble.

wouldn't bitcoin cause inflation?

how did you get so rich cypherdoc?

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December 08, 2012, 08:28:41 PM
 #3818

Miscreanity; have you ever bought a piece of real estate?

Regarding your post on real estate, we appear to have diametrically-opposed perspectives on investing in it. Although I've flipped, my primary focus has been commercial revenue generation. Price appreciation is always a secondary concern behind flow of funds. This is a long-term vs. short-term split. In terms of consistency, the former is like farming and the latter is closer to hunting; neither are guaranteed, but the former is less likely to result in going hungry.

Yes.

that's good as i hope it gives you a better understanding of the importance of the debt buildup.  i wonder though whether you invested in a consortium or as an individual.  all my RE deals have been done individually and there were times where i personally was responsible for making mortgage payments of over $12K per mo.  while i never had to be in a position of defaulting on a payment, there was always an uncomfortable nagging feeling of having that much exposure.  i made a decision around 2008 to pay everything off and now have had the benefit of being debt free for almost 5 yrs.  it is truly liberating.

iirc, after 30 yr of a fixed mortgage on a $1M loan you will have paid approx $3.5M back to the bank.  someone throw that into a mortgage calculator to check my numbers.  certainly if the USD drops during that time and the RE goes up you're good; but if deflation kicks in caused by some trivial little currency like Bitcoin, then you're in big trouble.

wouldn't bitcoin cause inflation?

how did you get so rich cypherdoc?

years of hard work and dedication have made me rich by some ppl's definition.  but perhaps not others.
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December 08, 2012, 09:04:34 PM
 #3819

Miscreanity; have you ever bought a piece of real estate?

Regarding your post on real estate, we appear to have diametrically-opposed perspectives on investing in it. Although I've flipped, my primary focus has been commercial revenue generation. Price appreciation is always a secondary concern behind flow of funds. This is a long-term vs. short-term split. In terms of consistency, the former is like farming and the latter is closer to hunting; neither are guaranteed, but the former is less likely to result in going hungry.

Yes.

that's good as i hope it gives you a better understanding of the importance of the debt buildup.  i wonder though whether you invested in a consortium or as an individual.  all my RE deals have been done individually and there were times where i personally was responsible for making mortgage payments of over $12K per mo.  while i never had to be in a position of defaulting on a payment, there was always an uncomfortable nagging feeling of having that much exposure.  i made a decision around 2008 to pay everything off and now have had the benefit of being debt free for almost 5 yrs.  it is truly liberating.

iirc, after 30 yr of a fixed mortgage on a $1M loan you will have paid approx $3.5M back to the bank.  someone throw that into a mortgage calculator to check my numbers.  certainly if the USD drops during that time and the RE goes up you're good; but if deflation kicks in caused by some trivial little currency like Bitcoin, then you're in big trouble.

wouldn't bitcoin cause inflation?

how did you get so rich cypherdoc?

years of hard work and dedication have made me rich by some ppl's definition.  but perhaps not others.

I'm not rich by anyone's definition.  lol :p

but i just started working hard, i need more time!

 Smiley

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December 08, 2012, 10:09:32 PM
 #3820


how did you get so rich cypherdoc?

years of hard work and dedication have made me rich by some ppl's definition.  but perhaps not others.

I figured you inherited some, and fished it a little bit about it one time for shits-n-giggles back when we were mortal enemies.  That was about the time someone fingered your real identity and his hit looked right.

Interestingly we might be in a generally similar wealth category in addition to our other similarities.  I happened to be able to do a reasonable well paying series of jobs reasonably well for the last 1.5-ish decades, and since I grew up poor I never broke the habit of living like a pauper.  Worked my ass off as well to in part to make up for a deficit in formal education...at least in the vocation I fell into.  G.W. Bush and his idiotic (or not) wars happened at an opportune time and got me researching things, paranoid, and sinking my excess funds into a couple of elemental substances which have panned out well so far.  I have more hope than ever that Bitcoin will be _the_ 'retirement event' for me, and it looks as promising as ever, but it is very far from something I am counting on.


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