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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807834 times)
sunnankar
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August 21, 2012, 01:05:56 AM
 #2901

it has been clear that i, so far, made a good decision to sell all my silver and most of my gold last year and put it into Bitcoin.

I do not think the minuscule Bitcoin market is large enough yet to draw any reliable correlations; but if the market were larger and the capital pools deep enough I could see the current inverse relationship between Bitcoin and gold maintained. Currently, in the universe of finance Bitcoin barely registers as a few atoms. But $3m+/day in volume over the past few days with such volatility is very encouraging for its future.

This proposed rule by the FDIC could have huge implications for the gold price.

So, when it comes to preserving wealth gold is it. Nevertheless, I think Bitcoin has been an is going to be a great speculative and wealth transfer play.

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miscreanity
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August 21, 2012, 01:08:03 AM
 #2902

The Pirate party is over..  

Is it..? Smiley

yes, i didn't sell one BTC.  they're all in cold storage b/c i think we have a long way to go.  this was but a flesh wound.

No fun Grin
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August 21, 2012, 02:16:25 AM
 #2903

it has been clear that i, so far, made a good decision to sell all my silver and most of my gold last year and put it into Bitcoin.

I do not think the minuscule Bitcoin market is large enough yet to draw any reliable correlations; but if the market were larger and the capital pools deep enough I could see the current inverse relationship between Bitcoin and gold maintained. Currently, in the universe of finance Bitcoin barely registers as a few atoms. But $3m+/day in volume over the past few days with such volatility is very encouraging for its future.

This proposed rule by the FDIC could have huge implications for the gold price.

mind explaining what this means?

Quote
So, when it comes to preserving wealth gold is it. Nevertheless, I think Bitcoin has been an is going to be a great speculative and wealth transfer play.

you know what they say about great investments; you gotta make them when no one else sees it.
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August 21, 2012, 03:38:20 AM
 #2904

it has been clear that i, so far, made a good decision to sell all my silver and most of my gold last year and put it into Bitcoin.

I do not think the minuscule Bitcoin market is large enough yet to draw any reliable correlations; but if the market were larger and the capital pools deep enough I could see the current inverse relationship between Bitcoin and gold maintained. Currently, in the universe of finance Bitcoin barely registers as a few atoms. But $3m+/day in volume over the past few days with such volatility is very encouraging for its future.

This proposed rule by the FDIC could have huge implications for the gold price.

mind explaining what this means?

I believe this would be the most significant section:

Quote
A. Zero Percent Risk-Weighted Items

The following exposures would receive a zero percent risk weight under the proposal:

Cash;
Gold bullion;
Direct and unconditional claims on the U.S. government, its central bank, or a U.S. government agency;
Exposures unconditionally guaranteed by the U.S. government, its central bank, or a U.S. government agency;
Claims on certain supranational entities (such as the International Monetary Fund) and certain multilateral development banking organizations
Claims on and exposures unconditionally guaranteed by sovereign entities that meet certain criteria (as discussed below).

Essentially, the Fed is officially acknowledging gold, and only gold among metals, as a monetary instrument. That means it is on equal footing with bonds and cash. The result will be a rebalancing of portfolios to accommodate the changes. It wouldn't be surprising to see 5-10% asset holdings taken in the form of gold. In order for that to be viable, the price of gold in fiat terms would have to rise by an order of magnitude.

Keep in mind that, from the above list only one item has zero counterparty risk associated with it. Everything else can be left to fall off a cliff in relative terms.

Quote
So, when it comes to preserving wealth gold is it. Nevertheless, I think Bitcoin has been an is going to be a great speculative and wealth transfer play.

you know what they say about great investments; you gotta make them when no one else sees it.

I don't think anyone here is disputing Bitcoin's potential, only that Bitcoin will not be the exclusive beneficiary of current trends.
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August 21, 2012, 04:06:07 AM
 #2905


you know what they say about great investments; you gotta make them when no one else sees it.

I don't think anyone here is disputing Bitcoin's potential, only that Bitcoin will not be the exclusive beneficiary of current trends.

all i can say is that it has been a spectacularly successful trade getting out of silver starting @ $49 and gold @ $1650 and moving fungible proceeds (not exactly coincident in time silverbox) into Bitcoin over a year ago now.  it has now moved from being a successful short term trade to that of a successful intermediate term trade by my definition.  i'm hopeful this will continue into the long term.

it just dawned on me that it appears i am the first one IN THE WORLD to have done this.  not to mention to the magnitude i have.  if someone else has done something similar they sure haven't stepped forward to admit it in this forum or elsewhere.  i guess i'll either be defined as a visionary or a dunce.
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August 21, 2012, 04:08:49 AM
 #2906


we seem to be agreeing alot more these days.  ...


Hard to know for certain since your true thoughts are reserved for people who pay you Smiley

We've always been on a similar sheet wrt Bitcoin I think.  I am prone to taking a counter-argument so usually when I talk to someone it is for the sake of disagreeing.  Or just seeking amusement which often comes at the expense of either myself or others.  As I've mentioned before, I think that actually communicating both the pro's and con's of something does that something the best service.  The pro's of Bitcoin (and PM's) are communicated ad-nauseam here.  Unsurprisingly.  I think it is of value to consider the con's as well, or at least not completely ignore or deny them.  Not unlike turning an interesting find over, under, and sideways to try to see it from as many angles as possible.

We are miles apart on Gold yet I think.  I guess we'll have to let time sort that one out.  I remain baffled that someone who went pretty heavily into PM's at one time so completely rejects the most compelling arguments for it today.  Oh well...life is full of mysteries I guess.


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August 21, 2012, 04:10:10 AM
 #2907


you know what they say about great investments; you gotta make them when no one else sees it.

I don't think anyone here is disputing Bitcoin's potential, only that Bitcoin will not be the exclusive beneficiary of current trends.

all i can say is that it has been a spectacularly successful trade getting out of silver starting @ $49 and gold @ $1650 and moving fungible proceeds (not exactly coincident in time silverbox) into Bitcoin over a year ago now.  it has now moved from being a successful short term trade to that of a successful intermediate term trade by my definition.  i'm hopeful this will continue into the long term.

it just dawned on me that it appears i am the first one IN THE WORLD to have done this.  not to mention to the magnitude i have.  if someone else has done something similar they sure haven't stepped forward to admit it in this forum or elsewhere.  i guess i'll either be defined as a visionary or a dunce.


Uhh I have...sold my silver in April, May, and July of 2011. Bought mining equipment and bought bitcoins outright.

Edit: Davincij15 did it first. I did it second to my knowledge.

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. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
cypherdoc
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August 21, 2012, 04:13:47 AM
 #2908


you know what they say about great investments; you gotta make them when no one else sees it.

I don't think anyone here is disputing Bitcoin's potential, only that Bitcoin will not be the exclusive beneficiary of current trends.

all i can say is that it has been a spectacularly successful trade getting out of silver starting @ $49 and gold @ $1650 and moving fungible proceeds (not exactly coincident in time silverbox) into Bitcoin over a year ago now.  it has now moved from being a successful short term trade to that of a successful intermediate term trade by my definition.  i'm hopeful this will continue into the long term.

it just dawned on me that it appears i am the first one IN THE WORLD to have done this.  not to mention to the magnitude i have.  if someone else has done something similar they sure haven't stepped forward to admit it in this forum or elsewhere.  i guess i'll either be defined as a visionary or a dunce.


Uhh I have...sold my silver in April, May, and July of 2011. Bought mining equipment and bought bitcoins outright.

Edit: Davincij15 did it first. I did it second to my knowledge.

well good for you altho i doubt you did it to the magnitude that i did.  nonetheless, its comforting to know i'm not the only one who thinks they see something.  Cheesy
smoothie
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August 21, 2012, 04:14:44 AM
 #2909


you know what they say about great investments; you gotta make them when no one else sees it.

I don't think anyone here is disputing Bitcoin's potential, only that Bitcoin will not be the exclusive beneficiary of current trends.

all i can say is that it has been a spectacularly successful trade getting out of silver starting @ $49 and gold @ $1650 and moving fungible proceeds (not exactly coincident in time silverbox) into Bitcoin over a year ago now.  it has now moved from being a successful short term trade to that of a successful intermediate term trade by my definition.  i'm hopeful this will continue into the long term.

it just dawned on me that it appears i am the first one IN THE WORLD to have done this.  not to mention to the magnitude i have.  if someone else has done something similar they sure haven't stepped forward to admit it in this forum or elsewhere.  i guess i'll either be defined as a visionary or a dunce.


Uhh I have...sold my silver in April, May, and July of 2011. Bought mining equipment and bought bitcoins outright.

Edit: Davincij15 did it first. I did it second to my knowledge.

well good for you altho i doubt you did it to the magnitude that i did.  nonetheless, its comforting to know i'm not the only one who thinks they see something.  Cheesy

You are probably right. I dont have as deep pocket as you do but I liquidated about 500oz of silver bullion in those three months.

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                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
tvbcof
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August 21, 2012, 04:19:43 AM
 #2910

...
it just dawned on me that it appears i am the first one IN THE WORLD to have done this.  not to mention to the magnitude i have.  if someone else has done something similar they sure haven't stepped forward to admit it in this forum or elsewhere.  i guess i'll either be defined as a visionary or a dunce.

I came fairly close to trading some Krugerrands and/or junk silver straight across for Bitcoin in about June of 2011.  I probably would have if I could have easily arranged it.  But it would have been a pretty small fraction of my PM holdings.  Part of the rational here was that I was paranoid about a clamp-down on the exchanges.  The route I went was to convert fiat as it came in to Bitcoin instead.  This turned out to be fortuitous due to the longish duration price drop of BTC and the lack of any legal issues associated with the exchanges.

A theoretical issue is that the money I sent to an exchange is a matter of record in various databases an it could be rationally assumed that I acquired Bitcoin.  But if I were terribly concerned about that I probably would not be blathering on on this forum.


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August 21, 2012, 04:28:02 AM
 #2911

the thing that gives me confidence that i did the right thing is that we continue to get newbies to the forum like this guy Coreadrin_47 who's writings remind we of what i've been saying all along.  it appears to me that more and more ppl see the same things that i do and i can't believe we are all seeing an illusion.
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August 21, 2012, 05:00:53 AM
 #2912

I don't remember U.S dollar fluctuated by more than 10% within 3 months, like gold did, so maybe we should buy and hoard dollars instead!

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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August 21, 2012, 05:16:42 AM
 #2913

it just dawned on me that it appears i am the first one IN THE WORLD to have done this.  not to mention to the magnitude i have.  if someone else has done something similar they sure haven't stepped forward to admit it in this forum or elsewhere.  i guess i'll either be defined as a visionary or a dunce.

You nailed it awesomely! Right to the target but I am having a hard time finding the arrow...


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August 21, 2012, 05:50:02 AM
 #2914

the thing that gives me confidence that i did the right thing is that we continue to get newbies to the forum like this guy Coreadrin_47 who's writings remind we of what i've been saying all along.  it appears to me that more and more ppl see the same things that i do and i can't believe we are all seeing an illusion.

Indeed.
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August 21, 2012, 06:04:27 AM
 #2915


it just dawned on me that it appears i am the first one IN THE WORLD to have done this.  not to mention to the magnitude i have.  if someone else has done something similar they sure haven't stepped forward to admit it in this forum or elsewhere.  i guess i'll either be defined as a visionary or a dunce.

Actually, let me respond to that to.

If your bet pays off, I'll consider you a visionary AND a if not a dunce, at least quite reckless.  Like someone who tries, and succeeds, in setting a record jumping a motorcycle over more cars than anyone before.

If it turns out that they daredevil is a physics wiz and ran a series of complex computer simulations, specified and tested the mechanical aspects of the ramp, tested his motorcycle's performance in a controlled series of experiments, etc, etc, now I start to develop a fair degree of respect for the guy.  With Bitcoin I do not believe that it is possible to fully analyze many of the more critical factors or even fully predict all of the factors that are and will come into play.  Thus, while I can and do have some respect for someone who goes all-in, I still consider them to be mostly a gambler.  And I tend to have more respect for someone who would do such a thing more out of philosophical or political grounds.

That said, I myself went more or less all-in on PM's.  That was at a time when I had less to lose though, and I never thought that a plausible outcome was to realize a 100% loss whereas I _still_ assume that outcome for my Bitcoin speculation.


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August 21, 2012, 07:32:56 AM
 #2916

the thing that gives me confidence that i did the right thing is that we continue to get newbies to the forum like this guy Coreadrin_47 who's writings remind we of what i've been saying all along.  it appears to me that more and more ppl see the same things that i do and i can't believe we are all seeing an illusion.

Yes, +1, though Coreadrin is not a newbie ("longtime lurker" who CPU-mined back in the day), according to his post. But the point is valid; the more posts I see by intelligent people we haven't heard from before, the better.

For my part, I seem to be making some headway with colleagues, who are mostly tech, Wall st., or Harvard MBA types (I work with tech startups). My first mentions of bitcoin were largely ignored; now these guys are sending me news articles about bitcoin when they see them, and asking me questions indicating that they're clearly genuinely interested. It's a slow process, but it's happening.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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August 21, 2012, 08:13:31 AM
 #2917

Bitcoin is the most powerful tool created in the last 65 years. This is the most interesting experiment going on right now, and will continue to attract the people interested in that type of thing.
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August 21, 2012, 08:24:40 AM
 #2918

On further thought, bitcoin is 2nd to the internet. Increasing the efficiency of accurate information flow should be the #1 goal of humanity right now, and bitcoin (or at least something spawned from it) is/will be a crucial part of that.
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August 21, 2012, 10:00:46 AM
 #2919

I'm putting every last extra fiat dollar I have into both Bitcoin AND gold at this point. I split any excess money left over at the end of the month right down the middle - half gets wired to the exchange, the other half to the coin dealer. I think gold is going to take off before the end of the year and this is a great time to buy. I did not come to this conclusion using some magical technical analysis nor did I feel it in my gut - I simply listen to what the rich and powerful say, but then I do what they do (which is usually the opposite):

http://sgtreport.com/2012/08/soros-gold-action-speaks-louder-than-trumpeted-bubble-words/
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August 21, 2012, 10:38:18 AM
 #2920


I believe this would be the most significant section:

Quote
A. Zero Percent Risk-Weighted Items

The following exposures would receive a zero percent risk weight under the proposal:

Cash;
Gold bullion;
Direct and unconditional claims on the U.S. government, its central bank, or a U.S. government agency;
Exposures unconditionally guaranteed by the U.S. government, its central bank, or a U.S. government agency;
Claims on certain supranational entities (such as the International Monetary Fund) and certain multilateral development banking organizations
Claims on and exposures unconditionally guaranteed by sovereign entities that meet certain criteria (as discussed below).



Is that a change from current policy? Is gold bullion currently an "item" that's considered 0% risk by the FDIC or not? ... If this *is* a change from existing policy, I consider it a significant one.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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