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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804675 times)
cypherdoc
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October 15, 2012, 01:51:30 PM
 #3421

silverbox, you lost your chance to sell GPL.  back in the red.
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October 15, 2012, 02:40:01 PM
 #3422

Gold and silver are going to go under their lows from 5 days ago (~1740 or ~34), but not below major support at ~1650 or ~30, before continuing to higher highs.

Just thought I should put one of my predictions to the test as well as bashing Cypher's Tongue

Under 1740 and 34... now to find support above 1650 and 30. Cheesy
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October 17, 2012, 02:44:31 AM
 #3423

USD gap'd lower.
miscreanity
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October 17, 2012, 03:17:15 AM
 #3424

Allowing prices to fall would wipe out enormous amounts of wealth. If that were going to be done, it would've been pursued already.

Prices can remain static or even rise while the system is being cleansed. It's a relative matter - prices in relation to money supply and debt levels.

London Trader - Competition To Buy Physical Gold Is Fierce

London Trader - Bullion Banks Had To Halt Gold’s Advance

The same patterns are present in Bitcoin as are seen in gold and silver. Volume spikes with marginal price movement are indicative of wealth transfer, not the end of a bull market.

I favor Bitcoin over gold and silver, but wouldn't be too quick to jump into a partially filled swimming pool just yet. I like my legs intact.
cypherdoc
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October 17, 2012, 03:41:27 AM
 #3425


I favor Bitcoin over gold and silver

now we're making some progress.  Wink
tvbcof
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October 17, 2012, 03:45:40 AM
 #3426


It's often kind of fun to 'miss' the KWN weekly metal wrap and listen to it later while watching the early week action.  It happened to me yesterday and I must say that Trader Dan utterly nailed it this week.  I would go so far as to say that that is not unusual for him in my observation though of course everyone has their mis-steps.  Or at least everyone who has the cojones to try to make calls (I don't.)


miscreanity
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October 17, 2012, 07:08:43 PM
 #3427

I favor Bitcoin over gold and silver
now we're making some progress.  Wink

My posts have always viewed Bitcoin > gold/silver, especially long-term; they're all headed for growth, only with Bitcoin leading the pack Smiley
cypherdoc
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October 17, 2012, 07:49:53 PM
 #3428

I favor Bitcoin over gold and silver
now we're making some progress.  Wink

My posts have always viewed Bitcoin > gold/silver, especially long-term; they're all headed for growth, only with Bitcoin leading the pack Smiley

that's not my recollection from back in the early days of the original gold thread late last year.  but anyways, glad to know this is where you are now.
miscreanity
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October 17, 2012, 08:04:25 PM
 #3429

I favor Bitcoin over gold and silver
now we're making some progress.  Wink
My posts have always viewed Bitcoin > gold/silver, especially long-term; they're all headed for growth, only with Bitcoin leading the pack Smiley
that's not my recollection from back in the early days of the original gold thread late last year.  but anyways, glad to know this is where you are now.

There's only one point at which I think gold/silver would outperform - a revaluation or commercial failure could cause a doubling in price for the metals. That may occur before Bitcoin climbs (I'm still not sure whether Bitcoin is leading or following PMs). The metals would briefly exceed Bitcoin on both a relative and absolute basis, but would be followed and surpassed. How quickly that would happen is the question.
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October 17, 2012, 08:41:29 PM
 #3430

I favor Bitcoin over gold and silver
now we're making some progress.  Wink
My posts have always viewed Bitcoin > gold/silver, especially long-term; they're all headed for growth, only with Bitcoin leading the pack Smiley
that's not my recollection from back in the early days of the original gold thread late last year.  but anyways, glad to know this is where you are now.

There's only one point at which I think gold/silver would outperform - a revaluation or commercial failure could cause a doubling in price for the metals. That may occur before Bitcoin climbs (I'm still not sure whether Bitcoin is leading or following PMs). The metals would briefly exceed Bitcoin on both a relative and absolute basis, but would be followed and surpassed. How quickly that would happen is the question.

Your neglecting catastrophic failure of the bitcoin system.  Broken protocol, massive gubament intervention, etc.  PM's have some of these risks, but not to the extent BTC does.

Complete collaspse of BTC is still on the table IMO.   For PM's I don't believe it is.

But I agree BTC has the higher chance for gain, while PM's are safer.
molecular
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October 17, 2012, 09:06:17 PM
 #3431

But I agree BTC has the higher chance for gain, while PM's are safer.

Interestingly my brother, who has been reluctant to invest in either BTC nor metals up to recently told me today that he considered the metals to be pretty risky and started putting fiat into bitcoin three weeks ago. While being new to both kinds of "investment", he seems to feel more comfortable with bitcoin than with metals.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
tvbcof
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October 17, 2012, 09:10:32 PM
 #3432

But I agree BTC has the higher chance for gain, while PM's are safer.

Interestingly my brother, who has been reluctant to invest in either BTC nor metals up to recently told me today that he considered the metals to be pretty risky and started putting fiat into bitcoin three weeks ago. While being new to both kinds of "investment", he seems to feel more comfortable with bitcoin than with metals.


Maybe he's a subscriber to Cypherdoc's newsletter?


cypherdoc
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October 17, 2012, 09:55:21 PM
 #3433

But I agree BTC has the higher chance for gain, while PM's are safer.

Interestingly my brother, who has been reluctant to invest in either BTC nor metals up to recently told me today that he considered the metals to be pretty risky and started putting fiat into bitcoin three weeks ago. While being new to both kinds of "investment", he seems to feel more comfortable with bitcoin than with metals.


Maybe he's a subscriber to Cypherdoc's newsletter?




 Grin Grin Grin

as to silverbox's comment, i still don't like the Tungsten Effect.  how many of you, seriously, can step forward and say that your bullion is pure?  i know i can't for the coupla dozen coins i still own.  the technology to fraudulently market bullion has escalated significantly.  how is this not equivalent to a hack of the Bitcoin code?
cypherdoc
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October 17, 2012, 10:00:22 PM
 #3434

But I agree BTC has the higher chance for gain, while PM's are safer.

Interestingly my brother, who has been reluctant to invest in either BTC nor metals up to recently told me today that he considered the metals to be pretty risky and started putting fiat into bitcoin three weeks ago. While being new to both kinds of "investment", he seems to feel more comfortable with bitcoin than with metals.


Welcome to the Age of the Internet!  Wink  Let me guess; he's probably 14 yo.  Grin
tvbcof
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October 17, 2012, 10:14:29 PM
 #3435


as to silverbox's comment, i still don't like the Tungsten Effect.  how many of you, seriously, can step forward and say that your bullion is pure?  i know i can't for the coupla dozen coins i still own.  the technology to fraudulently market bullion has escalated significantly.

All I can say is that yes, this form of fraud is real and a legitimate concern.  Or at least if it is not currently, it will be under many of the potential scenarios which induce me to wish to own PMs.

By way of making lemonade out of lemons, I am tenatively planning to 'diversify' into obtaining whatever technology and skill set is required to assay metals to a higher than normal degree of precision.  When I get around to it.

how is this not equivalent to a hack of the Bitcoin code?

That comment is a bit unclear to me.  I guess you are saying something like: 'how is this not equivalent to Bitcoin having been cracked?'  If so, I guess my answer would be that it's more equivalent to Bitcoin realizing a weakness that one should be careful to avoid.  Pretty much everything suffers from such a thing actually.


cypherdoc
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October 17, 2012, 10:24:51 PM
 #3436


as to silverbox's comment, i still don't like the Tungsten Effect.  how many of you, seriously, can step forward and say that your bullion is pure?  i know i can't for the coupla dozen coins i still own.  the technology to fraudulently market bullion has escalated significantly.

All I can say is that yes, this form of fraud is real and a legitimate concern.  Or at least if it is not currently, it will be under many of the potential scenarios which induce me to wish to own PMs.

By way of making lemonade out of lemons, I am tenatively planning to 'diversify' into obtaining whatever technology and skill set is required to assay metals to a higher than normal degree of precision.  When I get around to it.

how is this not equivalent to a hack of the Bitcoin code?

That comment is a bit unclear to me.  I guess you are saying something like: 'how is this not equivalent to Bitcoin having been cracked?'  If so, I guess my answer would be that it's more equivalent to Bitcoin realizing a weakness that one should be careful to avoid.  Pretty much everything suffers from such a thing actually.



unfortunately, it turns out my US is too low in energy to be practical for assaying bullion.  so i'm still not sure of my own ounces.

i think the difference is that if the Bitcoin source code is found to be deficient in some manner or gubmints somehow develop the ability to penetrate SHA-256 before the devs can react, its totally over for Bitcoin.  all of us will lose everything we've invested. 

while The Tungsten Effect has the potential to put a cap on this bull run, i don't think it's devastating altho i could be wrong.  money is about perception and confidence. 
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October 17, 2012, 10:41:17 PM
 #3437

I favor Bitcoin over gold and silver, but wouldn't be too quick to jump into a partially filled swimming pool just yet. I like my legs intact.

Or wade into the pool first and then do the hard work of wealth generation by stimulating transactional demand in competition to other payment systems like wire transfers, Visa, MC, Paypal, etc.

A $4B currency supply of bitcoins, which would support an economy about the size of Salt Lake City the 44th largest metro economy in the US with a GDP around $60B, translates into about $4,000 per bitcoin in 18-24 months (assuming a certain amount of 'destroyed' bitcoins).

Where else is there a start-up/VC opportunity the same risk-reward profile? Amazon could probably make more earnings buying up 3m bitcoins and then introducing it as a payment method than they make with their core business. Paypal contributes about 25% of Ebay's earnings.

tvbcof
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October 17, 2012, 10:48:26 PM
 #3438

...
while The Tungsten Effect has the potential to put a cap on this bull run, i don't think it's devastating altho i could be wrong.  money is about perception and confidence. 

I cannot see your 'W Effect' being a huge deal though it could lop off the 'long tail' of the PM market which could be fairly significant in some scenarios and admittedly could seriously impact PM's role in low value exchange markets.  That said, debasement is nothing which has not existed and been dealt with in the past when PM's were in widespread use as exchange currencies.

I see a pretty significant opportunity for entities combining the rolls of an escrow and quality assurance body for PM transfers, and using the 'lubricity' of Bitcoin to facilitate certain parts of the multi-way transaction in a reliable manner.  I'm tied up at the moment but may expand on it later.


cypherdoc
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October 18, 2012, 02:19:53 AM
 #3439

...
while The Tungsten Effect has the potential to put a cap on this bull run, i don't think it's devastating altho i could be wrong.  money is about perception and confidence. 

I cannot see your 'W Effect' being a huge deal though it could lop off the 'long tail' of the PM market which could be fairly significant in some scenarios and admittedly could seriously impact PM's role in low value exchange markets.  That said, debasement is nothing which has not existed and been dealt with in the past when PM's were in widespread use as exchange currencies.

I see a pretty significant opportunity for entities combining the rolls of an escrow and quality assurance body for PM transfers, and using the 'lubricity' of Bitcoin to facilitate certain parts of the multi-way transaction in a reliable manner.  I'm tied up at the moment but may expand on it later.



i think there is a difference this time which gold bugs may be underestimating.  modern day technology makes it feasible to "fill" a gold coin with tungsten whereas this didn't exist in times past, at least significantly.  this has the potential to introduce considerable doubt into small investors psyche as i now sit around tapping my few remaining coins on the counter listening for defects:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYmj-e621Ss

contrast this with the new modern money, Bitcoin.  it's not possible to "fill" a Bitcoin.  this puts the small petty tungsten thieves out of business and reduces the size of the potential attacker to that of a very large institution with the funds and motivation to destroy Bitcoin.  the only ones i could see fitting into this category are banks and the gubmint.  even then some say this is improbable, if not impossible...
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October 18, 2012, 02:53:52 AM
 #3440

modern day technology makes it feasible to "fill" a gold coin with tungsten

This simply highlights Bitcoin's superior efficiency as a monetary instrument due to lower costs. Of course, bitcoins can still be over or undervalued relative to its competitors based on its value proposition.

It has lower costs in terms of time because quantity and quality can be verified much more quickly than either gold or fiat currency. No drilling for assays and no special pens for detecting counterfeits.

It also has lower costs in terms of money and privacy; pseudo-anonymous, no transaction, storage, etc. fees. When currency controls get ratcheted up in 2014 this will become even more important with Bitcoin acting like invisible monetary glue.

Currently, the largest cost associated with using bitcoins in transactions is time. It is time educating the other party about why bitcoins are currency, safe, securing wallets, learning how to use the new technology, etc. The more of that which gets done the greater the network effects and the faster the time cost with using bitcoins declines.

As the great credit contraction continues those assets which provide safety (gold) and liquidity (bitcoins) will continue rising in value. Due to the nascent nature of Bitcoin it will likely continue outperforming gold; assuming Bitcoin does not become completely worthless from some type of systemic collapse.


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