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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804275 times)
Hexadecibel
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August 04, 2012, 05:43:18 PM
 #2681

I for one am eternally grateful. Cypherdoc, you saved me somewhere around $10k. Thanks buddy  Smiley
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August 04, 2012, 05:46:30 PM
 #2682

Ohh I see someone got already very emotional over this. Haha. Take it bears, you will be slaughtered as pig again and again and again by Bitcoin. See ya all at 100000$ (give or take a zero or two)

Well cypherdoc basically stated he has thrown more fiat onto BTC in one instance than I will ever earn in my entire life, and bragged about him cornering the market took away my funds.

What do you expect?

the sooner you learn and characterize that it was "the Market" that took away your money and not ppl with more money than you, the better off you'll be.  the primary trend had changed from the collective wisdom of the Market.  it wasn't just me.  you as an individual failed to recognize that fact and paid dearly for it.  remember i said i piggybacked off some other bull's first ramp.  Zhou had been bragging that he only had to worry about a spike every such fraction of the total trades but he neglected to account for clever ppl figuring out the vulnerable hyperreactivity of his algo and taking advantage of it to piggyback off of others in a small relatively illiquid market to slaughter the other side of the trade.  get with it man.
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August 04, 2012, 05:50:23 PM
 #2683

during the 2 mo i pounded on Zhou's ass during Oct-Nov, i kept identifying red flags everywhere. the way he had set things up was flawed from the beginning.  i pointed out problems like "slippage" with mtgox.  anytime he had to hedge an already executed customers order and got delayed due to a bad connection with mtgox i'm sure it set him up for a catastrophic loss.  i told him i could set up accts at both places and short and buy simultaneously to "frontrun" his hedging.  i could tell by his lack of response or immature responses that he was thinking about what i was saying and then he would change his algorithm suddenly.  this was a huge red flag and from that point on i knew i had him. interspersed throughout this time, small outbursts and screams would occur from customers complaining about being Zhoutonged (another term i coined) from a malfunction of his algorithm. in response he would change the algorithm yet again, apologize, say a few nice things, and reimburse customers which again is a huge red flag of someone trying to perpetuate the ponzi.  Zhou kept changing his stories and explanations.  he writes a ton but says very little.  

then there was the time when Zhou publicly came out and tried to influence the market by stating that there were no more USD reserves and that it would be a good time to sell BTC.  oh i pounded his ass good for that one and he finally apologized.  what owner of an exchange attempts to influence the market direction unless it benefitted himself in some way?  i could tell that the whipsaws and volatility were costing him and customers money yet the Zhoutonging continued.  this was his way of stripping money at customers expense.  he actually had to to stay profitable.  

and then the culmination of my efforts came from the "double ramp" (my term) from $3.50-$4.90 in a couple of minutes that i personally orchestrated.  if you'll remember that down in the dumps of those times it had become fashionable to short every ramp with leverage from Zhou as inevitably the price would turn back down and go lower. the Bears were making money like crazy doing this and were partying it up.  I had already helped turn the tide @ $2 by being over a third of that bid wall and i could see the trend had changed to upwards but the Bears didn't see it and were still shorting each ramp.  so i waited for someone else to perform the first ramp from $2.90 to $3.90 or so (fuzzy on the exact start price).  the Bears predictably came in shorting with leverage and the price came back in to $3.50.  and then i hit the BUY button with a massive order.  i'm sorry but i smiled big as the price took off up to $4.90 and the screams from the Bears was loud, clear and palpable.  there was blood everywhere.  so many ppl got Zhoutonged from that one.  see the problem with his setup was that his algo, the way it was written, was  hyperreactive to those buying spikes madly trying to hedge while buyers madly tried to buy while shorts madly tried to cover while everyone else was being Zhoutonged. it was beautiful.

in the end, nobody listened and i gave up taking criticism from everyone for attacking a 17 yo, especially from the Bears defending Zhou.  God bless them. may they rest in peace.

Bro I love your updates but that was kinda gay...just the first sentence.

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     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
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. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
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August 04, 2012, 05:50:57 PM
 #2684

were you not hootin' and hollerin' and partyin' and talking down with disdain at me and any other bull during that entire time?  oh i guess that's ok considerin' you claim you don't have alot of fiat. Roll Eyes

You are referring to that boiling frog analogy? Well at least I know now that this was hitting a spot.
I always considered you took that lightly as a joke.  Huh

Anyway I have no hard feeling against you for what you did, just bragging about it is kind of out of place.

^^ don't swim with sharks

Well I am persistent one way or the other I will get my slice, I gonna enroll for a bachelor in math next year, and hopefully learn enough to exploit remaining market inefficiencies people with alot of funds leave behind Tongue

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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August 04, 2012, 05:56:44 PM
 #2685

Ohh I see someone got already very emotional over this. Haha. Take it bears, you will be slaughtered as pig again and again and again by Bitcoin. See ya all at 100000$ (give or take a zero or two)

Well cypherdoc basically stated he has thrown more fiat onto BTC in one instance than I will ever earn in my entire life, and bragged about him cornering the market took away my funds.

What do you expect?

Hey if you took the risk of using leverage then you can suck it up when you lose everything. This isn't a game. You took a chance and got burned. That's how it is in the trading arena.

Lick your wounds and get up and stop whining.

███████████████████████████████████████

            ,╓p@@███████@╗╖,           
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                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
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August 04, 2012, 06:04:04 PM
 #2686

Ohh I see someone got already very emotional over this. Haha. Take it bears, you will be slaughtered as pig again and again and again by Bitcoin. See ya all at 100000$ (give or take a zero or two)

Well cypherdoc basically stated he has thrown more fiat onto BTC in one instance than I will ever earn in my entire life, and bragged about him cornering the market took away my funds.

What do you expect?

Hey if you took the risk of using leverage then you can suck it up when you lose everything. This isn't a game. You took a chance and got burned. That's how it is in the trading arena.

Lick your wounds and get up and stop whining.

I did that, long ago. But cyherdoc came up to me and said: Hey remember that back then? That was me!
Just did throw out a brief "fuck you" in response  Smiley

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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August 04, 2012, 06:07:16 PM
 #2687

Ohh I see someone got already very emotional over this. Haha. Take it bears, you will be slaughtered as pig again and again and again by Bitcoin. See ya all at 100000$ (give or take a zero or two)

Well cypherdoc basically stated he has thrown more fiat onto BTC in one instance than I will ever earn in my entire life, and bragged about him cornering the market took away my funds.

What do you expect?

Hey if you took the risk of using leverage then you can suck it up when you lose everything. This isn't a game. You took a chance and got burned. That's how it is in the trading arena.

Lick your wounds and get up and stop whining.

I did that, long ago. But cyherdoc came up to me and said: Hey remember that back then? That was me!
Just did throw out a brief "fuck you" in response  Smiley

Yup the equivalent of being bitter....

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           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─  
     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
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August 04, 2012, 06:08:21 PM
 #2688

Ohh I see someone got already very emotional over this. Haha. Take it bears, you will be slaughtered as pig again and again and again by Bitcoin. See ya all at 100000$ (give or take a zero or two)

Well cypherdoc basically stated he has thrown more fiat onto BTC in one instance than I will ever earn in my entire life, and bragged about him cornering the market took away my funds.

What do you expect?

Hey if you took the risk of using leverage then you can suck it up when you lose everything. This isn't a game. You took a chance and got burned. That's how it is in the trading arena.

Lick your wounds and get up and stop whining.

I did that, long ago. But cyherdoc came up to me and said: Hey remember that back then? That was me!
Just did throw out a brief "fuck you" in response  Smiley

you have no excuse.  i was warning everyone about these issues during that time.  i even talked about the double ramp back then, not just now.  you're taking it way too personally.  what i'm trying to do is educate so that the community never lets this type of shit happen again.  besides, i wasn't the one who brought up Bitcoinica in this thread just a few comments ago.  i was responding to silverbox.
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August 04, 2012, 06:27:12 PM
 #2689

Well cypherdoc basically stated he has thrown more fiat onto BTC in one instance than I will ever earn in my entire life, and bragged about him cornering the market took away my funds.

What do you expect?

Well, I can expect one of three options from you: (1) keep taking it, (2) learn how to give it or (3) get out of the kitchen.

Well I am persistent one way or the other I will get my slice, I gonna enroll for a bachelor in math next year, and hopefully learn enough to exploit remaining market inefficiencies people with alot of funds leave behind Tongue

Now that is the spirit!

If you think that dealing with some tiny Agama agama has given you problems then you are absolutely clueless and are going to make a great snack for some velociraptor. And just wait until those velociraptors start hunting the bitcoin markets in packs. Then pirate or cypherdoc becomes the snack!  Shocked


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August 04, 2012, 06:34:10 PM
 #2690

sunnankar, i see you won't respond to my questions about gold.  that's ok.  your non response is actually quite revealing to me as i would've expected a vociferous defense of gold like i get from miscreanity.  

GO BITCOIN!Cheesy
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August 04, 2012, 06:35:56 PM
 #2691

Yup the equivalent of being bitter....

Back when I left the forum thinking BTC is not for me I really was being bitter, but in a way I always be a little bitter, or at least melancholic about it because I was to narrow minded to recognize BTCs potential after I first discovered it.

you have no excuse.  i was warning everyone about these issues during that time.  i even talked about the double ramp back then, not just now.  you're taking it way too personally. ....

I know. I have really myself to blame, I was too scared to stay long and under the impression shorts were safer. Not being in a position when not being confident to go with the trend hasn't even occurred to me at this point... how stupid that was!

@sunnankar
well see ^^

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August 04, 2012, 06:57:03 PM
 #2692


If you think that dealing with some tiny Agama agama has given you problems then you are absolutely clueless and are going to make a great snack for some velociraptor. And just wait until those velociraptors start hunting the bitcoin markets in packs. Then pirate or cypherdoc becomes the snack!  Shocked


yep, that's me!  smaaall, sleek, and faaast!

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August 04, 2012, 07:06:56 PM
 #2693


If you think that dealing with some tiny Agama agama has given you problems then you are absolutely clueless and are going to make a great snack for some velociraptor. And just wait until those velociraptors start hunting the bitcoin markets in packs. Then pirate or cypherdoc becomes the snack!  Shocked

yep, that's me!  smaaall, sleek, and faaast!


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August 04, 2012, 07:12:46 PM
 #2694


To close the gap to Bitcoin, gold would have to double. Possible, and even probable (for physical gold), but then again - nobody has argued that gold would outpace Bitcoin's growth. Tongue

As tvbcof pointed out, they have nearly identical purposes, but are in different classes.


To clarify, because the suggestion above is basically 180 degrees off of what I meant to say:

Firstly, I find PM's and Bitcoin to be very similar in one very important respect.  Counter-party risk (or I should say, lack thereof) and relatively few reasonably available modern vehicles have such a property.

Secondly, just about anything can have different purposes to different people.  In my case, I use PM's, and especially Gold, as a very basic wealth preservation tool to perform even the most trying of possible scenerios...up to and including complete anarchy.  If I 'make money' on PM's, fine, but that's not my fundamental goal with this particular asset.

I consider bitcoin is very much akin to playing the startup game in terms of risk/reward.  The big difference is that Bitcoin is far less work and a fairly dinky monetary investment besides.  I don't consider it a success unless I make a fair amount of money in the end and the potential for a monster jackpot is in the mix.

Similar to a startup, I consider the most likely outcome for my investment in Bitcoin is near full loss, but expect to learn interesting things along the way.

Similar to some (but not many) startups, I do see Bitcoin as having a potential to have a positive impact on some aspects of our societies.


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August 04, 2012, 07:50:25 PM
 #2695


Similar to some (but not many) startups, I do see Bitcoin as having a potential to have a positive impact on some aspects of our societies.



glad to see your attitude towards Bitcoin has improved.  the change has been palpable.

given the negative impact of financial markets today on the common citizen, a small glimmer of hope provided by Bitcoin could easily turn into a Bright Shining Beacon.
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August 04, 2012, 09:11:46 PM
 #2696

sunnankar, i see you won't respond to my questions about gold.  that's ok.  your non response is actually quite revealing to me as i would've expected a vociferous defense of gold like i get from miscreanity.  

GO BITCOIN!Cheesy

I must have missed the question; perhaps you did not have my attention. But I see several reasonable arguments for analysis when it comes to Bitcoin.

From a monetary science analysis I see gold and bitcoin as opposite sides of the same coin, both are after all decentralized peer-to-peer currencies, and like most monetary systems through the ages; cattle and salt, gold and silver, etc. Thus, gold is good for transferring wealth over time and Bitcoin for transferring wealth over distance. Both are sterile assets although bitcoin is more sterile than gold because gold has alternative uses such as industry. As sterile assets their increase in relative price is merely a transfer of wealth that has already been produced and is currently stored in some asset to the holders of the sterile assets.

From a venture capital analysis I see an argument for Bitcoin as an open-sourced startup, think about if Facebook or Skype had publicly traded stock from their inception, as it is both the blood (gold, FRN, Euros, Yen, etc.) and the veins (banks, credit cards, Paypal, etc.). As such it would move from being a mere sterile asset to a productive asset with 100% retained earnings and constant but predictable dilution (mining reward).

One thing just about everyone with any sense of what is going on in the current financial and monetary systems agrees on is that the system is FUBARed. What is used as currency is not going to be used as currency much longer. The time horizon could be a decade or two though but that is a tiny amount of time considering the current system is a five hundred year old relic. Will it be replaced by a new gold or silver system or standard? Will it be replaced by Bitcoin or something similar? Will modern civilization and society collapse due to the inability to continue the specialization of labor? I do not know those answers and doubt anyone does because the human action has not been decided yet.

But using either or both analysis Bitcoin offers a tremendous ability for the economy to be more efficient and generate wealth by, as tvbcof pointed out, reducing or eliminating counter-party risk and allowing the specialization of labor to continue even more efficiently because of its ability to transfer value over distance and is resistent to violent censorship. This is a HUGE problem in our current economy, financial and monetary systems. A symptom are the huge international trade imbalances. Solving this issue and the double-spend issue, which is the tremendous innovation Bitcoin does, can result in a ton of wealth saving and generating results. Tied along with this, but beyond the scope of this response, would be the advancement of triple entry bookkeeping that is made possible, the capital formation that will result and renders the current system obsolete much like double entry bookkeeping rendered single entry bookkeeping obsolete.

But unlike gold which is a tangible element and can never become worthless the Bitcoin network is censorship resistant, but not impervious, and could be compromised and all addresses become worthless, instantly. Some actor, like a government not necessarily acting out of profit motive, could use excess computer capacity and decimate the current blockchain. So, I do think there is reason to be cautious and not move or keep too much wealth stored in it. But that depends on each individual's risk horizon. When I first waded into Bitcoin is was around $0.05. Thus, an allocation of .5% of my net worth would result in it more than doubling.

Sure, there is a very speculative bullish argument to be made for just about any figure you could pull out of your agama tail (glad to see you have a sense of humor Grin). A million dollars isn't cool. Not even a billion dollars is cool anymore. You know what's cool, a trillion dollars.

For example, Skype sold for $8.5B 9 years after inception. In 2016 a similar valuation would put bitcoins at about $540 each. June 2012 seasonally adjusted M2 was 9,944.5B. That is about $25/person in cash balances. Assuming the valuation of bitcoins in 2016 is equal to the average american (400m) has $25 of value in bitcoins then that would be 400,000,000*25=$10,000,000,000,000/15,000,000 or about $663,000,000 per bitcoin.

So, how does one value a bitcoin? Good luck. Credit Suisse estimates global wealth at $231 Trillion and if there is a massive transfer of wealth as a result of Bitcoin adoption then you will no longer be an agama but a Godzilla! Much like an iceberg flipping so likewise I could see Bitcoin resulting in the rise of a new super-class and world order. This would not be unlike what happened during the transition from the Agricultural Age to Industrial Age; the time would just be compressed from hundreds of years to a few decades due to the rapid adoption of technology.

But one thing is for sure, the world is transitioning from the Industrial Age to the Information Age and for those on the cutting edge of this evolution: This is our time.

tvbcof
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August 04, 2012, 09:19:38 PM
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Similar to some (but not many) startups, I do see Bitcoin as having a potential to have a positive impact on some aspects of our societies.


glad to see your attitude towards Bitcoin has improved.  the change has been palpable.

given the negative impact of financial markets today on the common citizen, a small glimmer of hope provided by Bitcoin could easily turn into a Bright Shining Beacon.

On the contrary, I think my attitude about Bitcoin has been surprisingly uniform throughout.

Back when you and I seemed to be among the dwindling count of the more vocal proponents, I never said it was going to go anywhere...only that there existed a decent possibility and what I was hoping for was simply that fewer people would be left out if so.

As for the 'potential' for a positive impact on society, I have to admit that I consider it, along with the $1000's/BTC 'jackpot' possibility, to remain much less than likely.  Bitcoin has as much potential as anything to be exploited as a sharp tool by the few against the interests of the many.  I retain my very early hope that were this to happen, there exists a possibility that the 'many' could, by consensus, destroy Bitcoin (relative to other vehicles.)  A fundamental reason I 'like' Bitcoin more than I do PM's is that such an exercise of democratic power is somewhat more tenable with a crypto-currency than a physical element.


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August 04, 2012, 09:37:26 PM
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that would be 400,000,000*25=$10,000,000,000,000/15,000,000 or about $663,000,000 per bitcoin

The first mistake:
400 000 000 * 25 = 10 000 000 000 (not 10 000 000 000 000, but 1000 times lower)

The second mistake:
10 000 000 000 000 / 15 000 000 = 666 666.667 (not 663 000 000, but about 1000 times lower again)

So you somehow got a result 1 million times higher than it should be. What's wrong with you?

So 400M americans, $25 per person in bitcoins would give us around 660 USD/BTC considering there are 15M bitcoins in total.

Am I missing a point?
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August 04, 2012, 09:39:23 PM
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cool bitcoinica story
There is one thing that ZT did right, and that was to design the site in a way, so that everybody could quickly understand how it works - or at least believe to do this. Compare the success (number of active users) of Bitcoinica with the few others that have some similar direction. No one is using BitcoinOPX. icbit has probably not that much more traders. ZT clearly showed that there is some demand for such a site. And one could argue, that it is only fair, that those that don't know how to play lose the game.
Just curious, did you do this only on a upward ramp?
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August 04, 2012, 11:16:08 PM
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that would be 400,000,000*25=$10,000,000,000,000/15,000,000 or about $663,000,000 per bitcoin

The first mistake:
400 000 000 * 25 = 10 000 000 000 (not 10 000 000 000 000, but 1000 times lower)

The second mistake:
10 000 000 000 000 / 15 000 000 = 666 666.667 (not 663 000 000, but about 1000 times lower again)

So you somehow got a result 1 million times higher than it should be. What's wrong with you?

So 400M americans, $25 per person in bitcoins would give us around 660 USD/BTC considering there are 15M bitcoins in total.

Am I missing a point?

he's a lawyer, not a mathematician.  just watch his billable hours if you hire him.  Grin
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