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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805060 times)
SkRRJyTC
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July 19, 2012, 11:40:11 AM
 #2521

USDX going under its support line today? PM's going above their resistance line today??
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July 19, 2012, 03:50:08 PM
 #2522

USDX going under its support line today? PM's going above their resistance line today??

Congress ordering the bearded one to saddle up that white horse..
SkRRJyTC
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July 19, 2012, 03:52:01 PM
 #2523

USDX going under its support line today? PM's going above their resistance line today??

Congress ordering the bearded one to saddle up that white horse..

So far both are holding... the answers to both my questions at the moment is no...
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July 20, 2012, 04:59:25 PM
 #2524

oh my, this is really good.  i've been saying this since last August, the beginning of the first gold thread...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-whats-so-bad-about-deflation
tvbcof
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July 20, 2012, 06:28:01 PM
 #2525

oh my, this is really good.  i've been saying this since last August, the beginning of the first gold thread...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-whats-so-bad-about-deflation

Nothing real earth-shattering there.  Makes sense, but so what?  Even if 'mild' deflation is the greatest thing since sliced bread (for some folks including myself) that does not mean that that is what we'll see.

I expect that 'mild' will not be a word which is useful for characterizing many aspects of our economy given the machinations required to keep our highly leveraged systems stable as we approach end-game.  I believe we are reaching that point and most of my bets are based on this belief.

I believe that since 2008, we actually had at least periods of quite significant deflation.  Gold performed perfectly sufficiently to keep me smiling.  If the effects of heavy deflation during the next crisis cannot be masked, it will probably be terminal for most fiat regimes which means I'll be happy to hold Gold (and some Bitcoin for good measure.)  About the worst thing for PM's (and Bitcoin) would probably be mild controlled long-duration deflation with stable confidence in USD and other fiat.  In that situation, I would expect a _mild_ loss of opportunity by holding gold, but I think there is a pretty strong likelihood that that is _not_ the way things will play out.

BTW, why would your ever present fear/expectation of deflation in any of it's forms have a vastly different impact on the value of gold vs. on the value of BTC?  I think you've posited the answer is that the world will flock to Bitcoin as it's monetary solution.  I still don't see that as anywhere nearly as likely as that the world would move back to PM's in such a scenario (which would almost certainly be accompanied by massive social and technological shifts as well.)  But you are as free as I to position yourself for the future as you see fit.  At least as long as it is reasonably practical to exchange fiat for either PM's or BTC, and that may not be the case forever.


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July 21, 2012, 03:30:49 AM
 #2526

The Daaash for Digital Caaash!
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July 21, 2012, 03:42:56 AM
 #2527

looks like ppl are taking their financial stock cashouts and dumping it into Bitcoin! Wink
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July 21, 2012, 06:06:20 AM
 #2528

looks like ppl are taking their financial stock cashouts and dumping it into Bitcoin! Wink

Really?  Where are you looking?  I would expect to see BTC into the hundreds or thousands of USD per when that so much as starts to happen frankly.


molecular
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July 21, 2012, 07:19:26 AM
 #2529

The Daaash for Digital Caaash!

It never fails to put me in a good mood to hear you say this, cypher.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
cypherdoc
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July 21, 2012, 02:52:15 PM
 #2530

The Daaash for Digital Caaash!

It never fails to put me in a good mood to hear you say this, cypher.

Its always nice when people on opposite sides of the world can smile together  Cheesy
bb113
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July 21, 2012, 08:57:31 PM
 #2531



Quote
The "deflation is bad" view naively assumes the Federal government wants inflation to lower its own debt burden. But since the machinery of governance is directed not at what's good for the government, but at what's good for the financial Elites that influence policy, then the only meaningful question is: what's best for the financial Elites?

Mild inflation won't bother the Elites much as long as their leveraged returns exceed inflation by a substantial measure, but deflation is much more lucrative: why mess around with potentially volatile inflation when deflation works better?

I dunno, I mean now the "financial elite" will decide this? Inflation is required to pay for all the various TBTF ponzis people have become dependent on.

Quote
Deflation is only bad for those with crushing debts and no ability to borrow more. Since the Federal government (like the government of Japan) can always borrow more, those buying the debt are assured of a low-risk income stream that can then be used to buy other deflating assets.

Everyone assuming the Federal government has the power to create inflation and that inflation is "good" should examine the interests of those who control the government's policies, i.e. those who own the debt.

Deflation will lead to social unrest, which, if it passes some threshold, will lead to the endgame and a new status quo. It is not just the government that has crushing debt.

cypherdoc
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July 21, 2012, 09:04:38 PM
 #2532

you been had:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-why-fed-not-printing-crazy
silverbox
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July 21, 2012, 09:14:26 PM
 #2533


Interesting article.

I like this part

"A crucial move for the U.S. is to shift its crisis to other countries – by coercing China to buy U.S. treasury bonds with foreign exchange reserves and doing everything possible to prevent China’s foreign reserve from buying gold."

But gold is totally worthless right.. Even thu your article states that the reason we aren't having crazy QE out the butt is to keep the Chinese from buying to much gold..

They just bought the freaking LME..  Wink
tvbcof
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July 21, 2012, 09:37:03 PM
 #2534


Interesting article.

I like this part

"A crucial move for the U.S. is to shift its crisis to other countries – by coercing China to buy U.S. treasury bonds with foreign exchange reserves and doing everything possible to prevent China’s foreign reserve from buying gold."

But gold is totally worthless right.. Even thu your article states that the reason we aren't having crazy QE out the butt is to keep the Chinese from buying to much gold..

They just bought the freaking LME..  Wink


Eureka!  Cypherdoc is a Chinese and succumbed to one of the many U.S.'s ploys to convince them that it is not something worth owning.  That must be it.  If not, maybe he was just collateral damage in some disinformation campaign.


bb113
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July 22, 2012, 12:18:55 AM
 #2535

So the US debt ponzi trumps all lesser ponzis. I guess I can accept that. What is with me seeing ponzis everywhere?
sadpandatech
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July 22, 2012, 12:32:37 AM
 #2536


Interesting article.

I like this part

"A crucial move for the U.S. is to shift its crisis to other countries – by coercing China to buy U.S. treasury bonds with foreign exchange reserves and doing everything possible to prevent China’s foreign reserve from buying gold."

But gold is totally worthless right.. Even thu your article states that the reason we aren't having crazy QE out the butt is to keep the Chinese from buying to much gold..

They just bought the freaking LME..  Wink


Eureka!  Cypherdoc is a Chinese and succumbed to one of the many U.S.'s ploys to convince them that it is not something worth owning.  That must be it.  If not, maybe he was just collateral damage in some disinformation campaign.



hehe. On  the ariticle, someone should point the writer to 1999......  The fad of the last 5 years or so has been for the Chinese to purchase commoditites using the over priced bonds. ;p In a round about or not so round about way.

TL;DR they have found unique ways to cash out the shit bonds and profit at the same time.

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
tvbcof
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July 22, 2012, 02:24:04 AM
 #2537


hehe. On  the ariticle, someone should point the writer to 1999......  The fad of the last 5 years or so has been for the Chinese to purchase commoditites using the over priced bonds. ;p In a round about or not so round about way.

TL;DR they have found unique ways to cash out the shit bonds and profit at the same time.

You saw how easy it was to run the Chinese out of Libya literally by the ship full.  'Joe Kony' could pop up anywhere in Africa and both the left and right wings of our population would be foaming at the bit to send in the Marines.

We almost completely control the land routes for fossil fuels transport out of the parts of the Middle East that we allow it to be drawn from with the notable exception Iran, but that hole is primed and ready to go...and in the mean time, it's funny that it's so hard to find a nation who has not been, by our incredible grace, granted an exemption to do business with the Persians which demonstrates our control of their resources anyway.

I suspect is the biggest lever we have over China at this point is the threat of an actual invasion of the oil producing parts of Iran (Khuzestan.)  I heard a little news clip the other day that they blew the dust off some old cold war war-plans which happened to take this area in the process of halting the Rooskies...and since we have no more modern plans we would probably just have to go with those old outdated ones.

China will be our bitches until they decide to finally put up a fight.  If/when that day comes, I am supposing that they will eventually come out on top since they have the boots to put on the ground...if any of us are lucky enough to survive the event that is.


miscreanity
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July 23, 2012, 05:23:32 AM
 #2538

China will be our bitches until they decide to finally put up a fight.  If/when that day comes, I am supposing that they will eventually come out on top since they have the boots to put on the ground...if any of us are lucky enough to survive the event that is.

Oil is the primary concern for the US because of a legacy infrastructure. Access to the resources necessary for moving away from oil dependence are being secured by China and other nations while the US expends energy just to maintain itself.

Watch for 'surprise' advances in diverse energy generation technologies, and China's continuing moves on natural resource acquisitions - especially partnerships.

The pattern has been one of low-level expansion and integration. There is no need for direct conflict, only a show of force to distract and demonstrate capability. As the west forcefully blusters about, China and others have civilly ingratiated themselves among the most resource-rich regions through business partnerships. In other words, China is not just China - it is also Angola, Australia, Brazil, Estonia, Kenya, Mongolia, Thailand, Uruguay etc... China's strength is highly present in its relationships, exactly where the US is weak.
cypherdoc
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July 23, 2012, 01:15:25 PM
 #2539

Gold down, Bitcoin UP.
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July 23, 2012, 01:53:49 PM
 #2540

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