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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804449 times)
conspirosphere.tk
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July 23, 2012, 02:14:38 PM
 #2541

Gold down, Bitcoin UP.

What goes up and upper, at some point has to come back down.
Let's hope that this will be a soft landing, not crashing and burning. It may get interesting if the banksters start playing with BTCs like they do with PMs.

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July 23, 2012, 10:10:44 PM
 #2542

What goes up and upper, at some point has to come back down.
Let's hope that this will be a soft landing, not crashing and burning. It may get interesting if the banksters start playing with BTCs like they do with PMs.

That's what Pirate's doing...
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July 24, 2012, 04:49:02 AM
 #2543

China will be our bitches until they decide to finally put up a fight.  If/when that day comes, I am supposing that they will eventually come out on top since they have the boots to put on the ground...if any of us are lucky enough to survive the event that is.

Oil is the primary concern for the US because of a legacy infrastructure. Access to the resources necessary for moving away from oil dependence are being secured by China and other nations while the US expends energy just to maintain itself.

Watch for 'surprise' advances in diverse energy generation technologies, and China's continuing moves on natural resource acquisitions - especially partnerships.

The pattern has been one of low-level expansion and integration. There is no need for direct conflict, only a show of force to distract and demonstrate capability. As the west forcefully blusters about, China and others have civilly ingratiated themselves among the most resource-rich regions through business partnerships. In other words, China is not just China - it is also Angola, Australia, Brazil, Estonia, Kenya, Mongolia, Thailand, Uruguay etc... China's strength is highly present in its relationships, exactly where the US is weak.

Our analysis differs somewhat.

 - I don't think the world has (relatively speaking) yet realized any significant supply problems and probably will not for some time particularly if the economies stay sluggish.  There is, however, some political utility in making mountains out of the current mole hills...invented or real.

 - I expect that the US and a few other Western societies are much less dependent on oil for 'legacy infrastructure' reasons than most.  Particularly the large developing BRICs countries.  In the most optimistic circumstances it takes a great deal of time and wealth make semi-significant infrastructure shifts, and would be much more challenging for countries fighting a rear-guard action just keeping their populations fed.

 - I expect China to be run out of most of the other countries you mention as easily as they were run out of Libya and Iraq as needed.  Absent some pretty significant shifts in power structures and modes of political and military operations, that is.  China can buy any resource they want and their stake is effectively nullified when we install some new puppet to head things up.

Now as best I can tell, China's methods of assisting with civilian infrastructure projects and making themselves useful at various tiers of the trade economy is setting that nation up with a much more favorable rating amongst the general populations of the various third-world countries.  This compared to our blatant support of some pretty awful despots when that seems like the path of least resistance (the common-case in most parts of the world...which, to be fair, a practice not unknown for China to partake in...)  I do believe that this popular support will be one of China's aces in the hole in future times.

That last part is something of a point of agreement I guess.

It would not surprise me if China did not feel that the planets were aligned enough to make their move for some time.  Perhaps not in my lifetime.  My best hope is that there will come a point when the the West has something of an organic collapse in the West and China steps into their place with minimal fuss and loss of life.


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July 24, 2012, 04:05:07 PM
 #2544

DEFLATION is EVERYWHERE.
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July 24, 2012, 04:10:16 PM
 #2545

SkRRJyTC
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July 24, 2012, 05:58:42 PM
 #2546

DEFLATION is EVERYWHERE.

Im sure I have asked this before, and you probably answered me then, but what is the end game of this DEFLATION?

The way I see it the US is enjoying a bit of deflation right now, but that enjoyment will quickly dissipate and turn to fear... and the presses get turned back on.

We cant have deflation forever, can we?
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July 24, 2012, 09:36:27 PM
 #2547

DEFLATION is EVERYWHERE.

Im sure I have asked this before, and you probably answered me then, but what is the end game of this DEFLATION?

The way I see it the US is enjoying a bit of deflation right now, but that enjoyment will quickly dissipate and turn to fear... and the presses get turned back on.

We cant have deflation forever, can we?

No, but it can last a long time.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


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July 24, 2012, 09:37:45 PM
 #2548

DEFLATION is EVERYWHERE.

Im sure I have asked this before, and you probably answered me then, but what is the end game of this DEFLATION?

The way I see it the US is enjoying a bit of deflation right now, but that enjoyment will quickly dissipate and turn to fear... and the presses get turned back on.

We cant have deflation forever, can we?

No, but it can last a long time.

With Ben Bernanke heading the fed...he will over compensate with huge inflation after some shorter term deflation (6months to 18months)

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cypherdoc
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July 24, 2012, 11:31:14 PM
 #2549


jojo69
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July 24, 2012, 11:34:05 PM
 #2550

^ a carefully considered, reasoned and sober post as I have seen

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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July 24, 2012, 11:58:49 PM
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They went under 500!!   Grin Grin   Wink
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July 25, 2012, 06:12:53 PM
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Gold seems to be doing nicely today. Wink
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July 25, 2012, 07:11:57 PM
 #2553

Gold seems to be doing nicely today. Wink
Seems like cypherdoc forgets to post the updates on those days ;-)

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July 25, 2012, 07:13:26 PM
 #2554

Gold seems to be doing nicely today. Wink
Seems like cypherdoc forgets to post the updates on those days ;-)

silverbox has long forgotten his updates; i had to pick up the slack.
miscreanity
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July 25, 2012, 07:39:54 PM
 #2555

Our analysis differs somewhat.

 - I don't think the world has (relatively speaking) yet realized any significant supply problems and probably will not for some time particularly if the economies stay sluggish.  There is, however, some political utility in making mountains out of the current mole hills...invented or real.

Yes, the political incentives are heinous at best. We do differ on the idea regarding stagnation, though. Even a reduced level of consumption from recent highs remains elevated on a maintenance basis. I think that sluggish economies will very soon hasten shortages rather than delay them, especially in combination with other cyclic events like weather and developing nation growth.

- I expect that the US and a few other Western societies are much less dependent on oil for 'legacy infrastructure' reasons than most.  Particularly the large developing BRICs countries.  In the most optimistic circumstances it takes a great deal of time and wealth make semi-significant infrastructure shifts, and would be much more challenging for countries fighting a rear-guard action just keeping their populations fed.

You may be right on this, especially regarding the military sector.

I don't count the BRICs as western - my delineation is focused on perspective: wealth extractive vs. mutual benefit. That has the west mainly as North America and Western Europe, with a wavering stance on Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. Just about everything else for me is either eastern or oriented in that direction.

- I expect China to be run out of most of the other countries you mention as easily as they were run out of Libya and Iraq as needed.  Absent some pretty significant shifts in power structures and modes of political and military operations, that is.  China can buy any resource they want and their stake is effectively nullified when we install some new puppet to head things up.

This is something I can't say for certain either way. I'm not really sure how China would be run out of any countries when they don't have forces established the way the US does. It seems that each stage of instituting a friendly puppet is become progressively more difficult, requiring greater investment and protracted direct involvement. Resistance to western influence looks to be inversely correlated with voluntary association with the east. Maybe things would be different if western powers didn't attach so many wealth extractive strings to "assistance" efforts.

From what I can tell, neither Iraq nor Libya are foregone conclusions as yet. Unless cultural histories are eradicated, I don't see lasting effects without persistent efforts from an already thinly spread force. Whether that means another decade or five, I don't know. I'm not sure western forces can even maintain for that long, let alone the next 3 years. I'm sure that if Chinese were driven out or left to avoid the turmoil, they'll flow right back in after things settle down - the west does all the churning and burning, and the east reaps the benefits either way - again.

It would not surprise me if China did not feel that the planets were aligned enough to make their move for some time.  Perhaps not in my lifetime.  My best hope is that there will come a point when the the West has something of an organic collapse in the West and China steps into their place with minimal fuss and loss of life.

Right there. In other words: time is against the Anglosphere. An unpleasant transitionary phase, but probably not Armageddon.

Instead of maneuvering for domination, it's possible that dynastic wealth and leadership legacies are playing good cop, bad cop. The west as the bad guy, the east as the good guy. Regardless of what games the uber heavyweights may be playing, the results are the same: opportunities abound!
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July 25, 2012, 07:51:26 PM
 #2556

Gold seems to be doing nicely today. Wink
Seems like cypherdoc forgets to post the updates on those days ;-)

silverbox has long forgotten his updates; i had to pick up the slack.


No need to update if your going to do it for me, lol.  Wink
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July 25, 2012, 11:55:56 PM
 #2557

Our analysis differs somewhat.

 - I don't think the world has (relatively speaking) yet realized any significant supply problems and probably will not for some time particularly if the economies stay sluggish.  There is, however, some political utility in making mountains out of the current mole hills...invented or real.

Yes, the political incentives are heinous at best. We do differ on the idea regarding stagnation, though. Even a reduced level of consumption from recent highs remains elevated on a maintenance basis. I think that sluggish economies will very soon hasten shortages rather than delay them, especially in combination with other cyclic events like weather and developing nation growth.


Good points.  Always appreciated as are the interesting links.


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July 26, 2012, 10:59:01 AM
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PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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July 26, 2012, 06:53:08 PM
 #2559

Gold seems to be collapsing upwards the last few days Wink
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July 26, 2012, 07:04:39 PM
 #2560

Debt Bomb, by Dominic Frisby, simply amazing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXcLVDhS8fM

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