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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1808745 times)
cypherdoc
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August 28, 2012, 11:59:32 PM
 #3001

silver is consolidating to break $32.

even if... cypherdoc still wins by a long shot

Wins what? Huh

I think we all agreed that Bitcoin has far more room to grow than gold or silver, and at a faster rate. If anything, the prognostication that gold (esp. physical) was collapsing is wrong.

back in November at the lows of $2, almost no one around here agreed with me, except maybe tvbcof, that Bitcoin had more room to grow than gold including you. this realization of yours only came into being as we started heading up.

yes, gold hasn't collapsed yet but Bitcoin sure is UP.  i'm still holding my DZZ and ZSL.

don't forget that we are down from the 8/2011 gold thread when i first made the call.
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labestiol
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August 29, 2012, 12:24:22 AM
 #3002

I already told you that you made a good call on gold last summer, but would you really qualify it as a collapse ? It sure looks more like a correction for the moment.

As with you being one of the few to say that btc will grow more than gold, you're pushing is. BTC being such a dwarf market compared to gold, it's was obvious to many that without any real issue, btc was going to explode compared to gold.

I still think that you should rename this topic "Gold correcting, Bitcoin exploding", but I understand that we disagree on gold.

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cypherdoc
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August 29, 2012, 12:40:02 AM
 #3003

I already told you that you made a good call on gold last summer, but would you really qualify it as a collapse ? It sure looks more like a correction for the moment.

As with you being one of the few to say that btc will grow more than gold, you're pushing is. BTC being such a dwarf market compared to gold, it's was obvious to many that without any real issue, btc was going to explode compared to gold.

I still think that you should rename this topic "Gold correcting, Bitcoin exploding", but I understand that we disagree on gold.


no it hasn't collapsed.  definitely should call it a correction.  but i'm still concerned.  until gold can show me it can disconnect from stocks and the USD i'm skeptical.  

its not gold or silver that i'm against; its that i see us in a deflation not an inflation.  gold doesn't make sense with everything i'm seeing and i think further QE will have an unintended effect at this point; on the economy and gold.

having said all that, the very best trade so far has been to sell gold, sell silver, and buy Bitcoin.  period.
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August 29, 2012, 12:47:35 AM
 #3004

its not gold or silver that i'm against; its that i see us in a deflation not an inflation.  gold doesn't make sense with everything i'm seeing and i think further QE will have an unintended effect at this point; on the economy and gold.

having said all that, the very best trade so far has been to sell gold, sell silver, and buy Bitcoin.  period.

But it is in deflation, not inflation, when gold really performs well. The real fun will be with some major bank failures, derivative explosions, Tier I status, etc.

And the 'very best trade' is surely something besides short gold long BTC.

Ran into a friend a couple days ago and we were catching up on some financial stuff. About June/July of last year him he should be short, not long, Netflix. And he should look into these bitcoin things.

Short NFLX around July with a long BTC pair around Oct. Now that would be one heck of a trade!

labestiol
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August 29, 2012, 12:57:15 AM
 #3005

I agree the momentum is deflationary, and I agree that further QE will have severe unintended consequences. But further deflation will also have severe consequences.
The thing is History tells us that politicians nearly always choose inflation facing this choice, thus my opinion wrt precious metals.

Regarding PM/BTC, I won't deny that it is so far the best bet, and it will probably be long term. But I'm sure you won't deny that it is a very risky bet. Which is why I feel better having both, with a lesser fiat amount of BTC. Honestly, if I had more than 20% of my savings in BTC, i wouldn't sleep so well

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cypherdoc
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August 29, 2012, 01:04:22 AM
 #3006

its not gold or silver that i'm against; its that i see us in a deflation not an inflation.  gold doesn't make sense with everything i'm seeing and i think further QE will have an unintended effect at this point; on the economy and gold.

having said all that, the very best trade so far has been to sell gold, sell silver, and buy Bitcoin.  period.

But it is in deflation, not inflation, when gold really performs well. The real fun will be with some major bank failures, derivative explosions, Tier I status, etc.

i really doubt this is the way it will play out.  if the stock mkt rolls over i bet gold/silver go with it.
why gold bugs always think that they win no matter inflation or deflation i'll never understand.

Quote

And the 'very best trade' is surely something besides short gold long BTC.

Ran into a friend a couple days ago and we were catching up on some financial stuff. About June/July of last year him he should be short, not long, Netflix. And he should look into these bitcoin things.

Short NFLX around July with a long BTC pair around Oct. Now that would be one heck of a trade!

not if you look at general categories/indices.  short gold/silver:buy Bitcoin did much better than short stocks:buy Bitcoin.
cypherdoc
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August 29, 2012, 01:25:47 AM
 #3007

I agree the momentum is deflationary, and I agree that further QE will have severe unintended consequences. But further deflation will also have severe consequences.
The thing is History tells us that politicians nearly always choose inflation facing this choice, thus my opinion wrt precious metals.

Regarding PM/BTC, I won't deny that it is so far the best bet, and it will probably be long term. But I'm sure you won't deny that it is a very risky bet. Which is why I feel better having both, with a lesser fiat amount of BTC. Honestly, if I had more than 20% of my savings in BTC, i wouldn't sleep so well


i'm highly sensitive to trend changes; sometimes too sensitive meaning too early.

but think about it, when we first started this debate one year ago in the original gold thread, it was inconceivable that we'd be talking about Bitcoin so positively and with the confidence we do.  we're 3.5 yrs into this experiment and have weathered so many negative events and the hashrate, # tx's are just increasing.

when you say risky, i assume you mean from a gov't attack or attempt at making Bitcoin illegal.  read this guy blogdial, one of my favorites:  http://irdial.com/blogdial/  here's my favorite quote: "Bitcoin will see regulation as damage and it will route around it."

Bitcoin is a currency born from the internet.  its DNA is intimately associated with everything the internet was designed to do and that was to withstand destruction of large parts of it from a nuclear bomb.  just how many guys in suits, with sunglasses, in black vans coming to shut down your node would it take to approximate the bomb blast perimeter of a nuclear explosion that wiped out the USA?  

Bitcoin would just route around them.
miscreanity
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August 29, 2012, 01:40:39 AM
 #3008

back in November at the lows of $2, almost no one around here agreed with me, except maybe tvbcof, that Bitcoin had more room to grow than gold including you. this realization of yours only came into being as we started heading up.

What what!?  Shocked

Don't make me go digging through old posts  Tongue

i really doubt this is the way it will play out.  if the stock mkt rolls over i bet gold/silver go with it.
why gold bugs always think that they win no matter inflation or deflation i'll never understand.

Paper claims might, but physical cannot go to zero. Not even close. Physical is unbelievably discounted even now.

This is coming back to the situation of real supply. It doesn't matter how many drawings of an apple you give to a starving man: only a real one will feed him. Likewise, the real economy is at a point where it cannot rely upon illusory counter party promises.

You wouldn't argue that Bitcoin will collapse because of Pirate's default. That's the same as saying that gold will collapse because bank-created representations of gold are failing to function.

Gold does win in both situations. Inflation is an immediate win due to debasement. Deflation of the magnitude we're facing means a catastrophic failure of the existing monetary system.

Either way, blind reliance upon fiat is in decline. Nothing else can provide the monetary function of gold and silver except Bitcoin. The latter is still too small to support the world, though.

Bitcoin & gold/silver - accept no substitute.
silverbox
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August 29, 2012, 01:56:40 AM
 #3009


Bitcoin & gold/silver - accept no substitute.

*Nods sagely* Wink
sunnankar
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August 29, 2012, 02:10:02 AM
 #3010

why gold bugs always think that they win no matter inflation or deflation i'll never understand.

Gold usually underperforms in inflation and outperforms during deflation. Have you not read The Golden Constant by Jastram?

Trend wise something has to give with the current financial system and Bitcoin is Pandora's box which has now been opened.

labestiol
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August 29, 2012, 02:11:49 AM
 #3011

when you say risky, i assume you mean from a gov't attack or attempt at making Bitcoin illegal.  read this guy blogdial, one of my favorites:  http://irdial.com/blogdial/  here's my favorite quote: "Bitcoin will see regulation as damage and it will route around it."

I agree that bitcoin should resist gov attacks, or attempts to make it illegal. Depends which/how much gov, but I'm confident with that. But be realistic, it would hurt the price a LOT.

Other risks I see is hacks. How confident are you that you'll NEVER get hacked ? Trust me, it's not as easy as it sounds. I have a master degree in computer science, though not an expert in security, and I know it's definitely possible. Stuxnet was a good example that any computer, connected or not to the Internet, is a reachable target.
And the higher the btc price go, the more exposed early adopters will be.

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bitcool
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August 29, 2012, 02:14:27 AM
 #3012


Bitcoin & gold/silver - accept no substitute.

*Nods sagely* Wink
you mean like this?
thezerg
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August 29, 2012, 02:22:12 AM
 #3013

when you say risky, i assume you mean from a gov't attack or attempt at making Bitcoin illegal.  read this guy blogdial, one of my favorites:  http://irdial.com/blogdial/  here's my favorite quote: "Bitcoin will see regulation as damage and it will route around it."

I agree that bitcoin should resist gov attacks, or attempts to make it illegal. Depends which/how much gov, but I'm confident with that. But be realistic, it would hurt the price a LOT.

Other risks I see is hacks. How confident are you that you'll NEVER get hacked ? Trust me, it's not as easy as it sounds. I have a master degree in computer science, though not an expert in security, and I know it's definitely possible. Stuxnet was a good example that any computer, connected or not to the Internet, is a reachable target.
And the higher the btc price go, the more exposed early adopters will be.


You can use paper wallets, etc to put your bitcoins "offline" (with the only "online" risk being a crypto-crack).

I've heard about deflationary fears, but I just don't get why there is this concern what with the QEs etc.  Is it because people are paying down mortgage debt and foreigners are hoarding USD?  What about all the govt debt?  Is there really any forecasting services that can accurately estimate how much debt people will retire?

Thx!




silverbox
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August 29, 2012, 02:36:59 AM
 #3014


Bitcoin & gold/silver - accept no substitute.

*Nods sagely* Wink
you mean like this?


or maybe

tvbcof
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August 29, 2012, 03:18:18 AM
 #3015


back in November at the lows of $2, almost no one around here agreed with me, except maybe tvbcof, that Bitcoin had more room to grow than gold including you. this realization of yours only came into being as we started heading up.
...

Thx for the recognition.  It is true that I felt Bitcoin had much room to grow at that time as evidenced by my plowing much fiat into it back then.  And by my regular gum-flapping about my actions and rationals at the time.

A solution such as Bitcoin is hugely valuable, and even partial exchange-centric utilization would, by my estimates, make each BTC worth thousands current USD per.

Today we are approaching a year from those dark $2/BTC days and there has been:

 - no core system exploits.
 - no change in the high quality of the core development team.
 - exciting run-ups (and downs) and a touch near halve the $32/BTC peak.

These things together make me much more confident in Bitcoin's potential than I was back in.  It is important to note (or I feel it so, at least) that I still consider Bitcoin more likely to fail than to succeed in the end.  ~labestiol mentions the sleep factor, and I think that's quite important.  I'm not ready to get even close to 20% of my savings in BTC at this point.  As I've mentioned before, success of Bitcoin means (to me) such astronomical numbers that one really does not need a huge footprint in Bitcoin to realize the potential upside in a big way.

(Of course it won't hurt my speculative investment in BTC if everyone goes all in, so, patient reader, go for it if you want...but I don't think it is a wise or necessary move.)


cypherdoc
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August 29, 2012, 03:26:02 AM
 #3016

back in November at the lows of $2, almost no one around here agreed with me, except maybe tvbcof, that Bitcoin had more room to grow than gold including you. this realization of yours only came into being as we started heading up.

What what!?  Shocked

Don't make me go digging through old posts  Tongue

i really doubt this is the way it will play out.  if the stock mkt rolls over i bet gold/silver go with it.
why gold bugs always think that they win no matter inflation or deflation i'll never understand.

Paper claims might, but physical cannot go to zero. Not even close. Physical is unbelievably discounted even now.

This is coming back to the situation of real supply. It doesn't matter how many drawings of an apple you give to a starving man: only a real one will feed him. Likewise, the real economy is at a point where it cannot rely upon illusory counter party promises.

You wouldn't argue that Bitcoin will collapse because of Pirate's default. That's the same as saying that gold will collapse because bank-created representations of gold are failing to function.

Gold does win in both situations. Inflation is an immediate win due to debasement. Deflation of the magnitude we're facing means a catastrophic failure of the existing monetary system.

Either way, blind reliance upon fiat is in decline. Nothing else can provide the monetary function of gold and silver except Bitcoin. The latter is still too small to support the world, though.

Bitcoin & gold/silver - accept no substitute.

same 'ol arguments, same 'ol delusions.
cypherdoc
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August 29, 2012, 03:35:13 AM
 #3017

when you say risky, i assume you mean from a gov't attack or attempt at making Bitcoin illegal.  read this guy blogdial, one of my favorites:  http://irdial.com/blogdial/  here's my favorite quote: "Bitcoin will see regulation as damage and it will route around it."

I agree that bitcoin should resist gov attacks, or attempts to make it illegal. Depends which/how much gov, but I'm confident with that. But be realistic, it would hurt the price a LOT.

Other risks I see is hacks. How confident are you that you'll NEVER get hacked ? Trust me, it's not as easy as it sounds. I have a master degree in computer science, though not an expert in security, and I know it's definitely possible. Stuxnet was a good example that any computer, connected or not to the Internet, is a reachable target.
And the higher the btc price go, the more exposed early adopters will be.


how many Bitcoin wallets have you heard of being hacked?  private ones, not those on servers like Bitcoinica.  allinvains wallet doesn't count either as it was an open mining wallet hooked up to a pool server.

Stuxnet, as i understand, was incredibly sophisticated developed by the US gov't and required an infiltrator that installed the virus on the Iranian computer probably with a usb stick.  that won't happen to me anytime soon.
cypherdoc
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August 29, 2012, 03:40:32 AM
 #3018

why gold bugs always think that they win no matter inflation or deflation i'll never understand.

Gold usually underperforms in inflation and outperforms during deflation. Have you not read The Golden Constant by Jastram?

Trend wise something has to give with the current financial system and Bitcoin is Pandora's box which has now been opened.

the dynamics of every crisis situation will vary.  with what we face today, which is a debt deflation, i see gold failing to exceed the previous high just like the stock market.  could be wrong of course.
miscreanity
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August 29, 2012, 03:43:14 AM
 #3019

same 'ol arguments, same 'ol delusions reality.
cypherdoc
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August 29, 2012, 03:45:04 AM
 #3020

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