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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805123 times)
tvbcof
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November 28, 2012, 05:28:25 PM
 #3681

cypher's new gold meme:  "I will grind you down".

Trouble is, you are kind of grinding us goldbugs 'up' in the 'upward collapse' of valuations.  I'll agree that gold has been in a grind for longer than I expected before the next major leg...not that it has been impacted by your statements however.

Unfortunately BTC also has been in what I consider to be a 'grind' albeit punctuated by an occasional exciting price move.  As you know, my expectations for volatility in Bitcoin are vastly higher than for gold/silver, and my qualifications for 'success' of this speculation are at least an order of magnitude higher than what we've 'grinded' along to at by this point, and indeed, more like several orders of magnitude.  That's my reward for speculation in an unproven technology.

I'm a fairly patient person when it comes to both my gold 'investo-savings' and my BTC 'speculation' (and silver 'invest-o-specul-o-savings') and expect to wait many more years for results.  Actually, I'll probably have little choice unless I want to set up a business venture or something like that.


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miscreanity
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November 28, 2012, 06:30:52 PM
 #3682

It seems to be working fine today.

If the grinder is the USD, not so much; it's gone negative today!

Silver is almost back to even, gold is doing its usual grind up after a knock-down...

That's just like Bitcoin's price behavior. Speaking of - Happy Great Halving!
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November 28, 2012, 07:15:43 PM
 #3683

It seems to be working fine today.

If the grinder is the USD, not so much; it's gone negative today!

Silver is almost back to even, gold is doing its usual grind up after a knock-down...

That's just like Bitcoin's price behavior. Speaking of - Happy Great Halving!

Woot, the beauty of BTC (and PM's), we print less while fiat prints more Wink
notme
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November 28, 2012, 07:52:59 PM
 #3684

It seems to be working fine today.

If the grinder is the USD, not so much; it's gone negative today!

Silver is almost back to even, gold is doing its usual grind up after a knock-down...

That's just like Bitcoin's price behavior. Speaking of - Happy Great Halving!

I was referring to the smack down in gold since cyperdoc said it was a gold grinder.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
miscreanity
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November 28, 2012, 09:16:58 PM
 #3685

I was referring to the smack down in gold since cyperdoc said it was a gold grinder.

With the dollar grinding gold down... until it broke on gold's resilience.

I think of it as the USD dusting off and polishing the precious metals. Remove the derivative paper dirt and you get to the real value.
SkRRJyTC
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November 29, 2012, 04:06:26 PM
 #3686

Silver is really pulling away from Gold the last few weeks...

Anyone think its possible that Gold goes under $1500 while Silver makes new all time highs above $50?
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November 29, 2012, 04:38:41 PM
 #3687

Silver is really pulling away from Gold the last few weeks...

Anyone think its possible that Gold goes under $1500 while Silver makes new all time highs above $50?

Yes.  Gold:Silver is way high.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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cypherdoc
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November 29, 2012, 05:43:34 PM
 #3688

cypher's new gold meme:  "I will grind you down".

Trouble is, you are kind of grinding us goldbugs 'up' in the 'upward collapse' of valuations.  I'll agree that gold has been in a grind for longer than I expected before the next major leg...not that it has been impacted by your statements however.

Unfortunately BTC also has been in what I consider to be a 'grind' albeit punctuated by an occasional exciting price move.  As you know, my expectations for volatility in Bitcoin are vastly higher than for gold/silver, and my qualifications for 'success' of this speculation are at least an order of magnitude higher than what we've 'grinded' along to at by this point, and indeed, more like several orders of magnitude.  That's my reward for speculation in an unproven technology.

I'm a fairly patient person when it comes to both my gold 'investo-savings' and my BTC 'speculation' (and silver 'invest-o-specul-o-savings') and expect to wait many more years for results.  Actually, I'll probably have little choice unless I want to set up a business venture or something like that.



of course i didn't mean me grinding you guys down; i was referring to Mr. Market.  i also have been surprised at "the grind" sideways in gold.  its gone on longer than i've expected as well.  still down from its highs and the gold for Bitcoin trade has worked out stupendously.  i think it will continue.

btw we need an update from silverbox.
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November 29, 2012, 07:42:38 PM
 #3689

....  we are going to clear the bad debts and reduce the derivatives mountain.   this means the USD will go up, gold and silver down, and we all get back to saving and a more constrained way of living.

and no, the Fed will not be able to save everyone's assets.  Ben is going to be punished severely and will go down in history as one of the worst central bankers that ever lived.



Ok, so just to play devil's advocate on this one for the moment so that I better understand your argument:

If we're clearing bad debts and derivatives, yes, that's going to deflate the money supply (all of them except base-money). Obviously the Fed is trying to counter-act that with new base(ish)-money. Are you simply asserting that the Fed cannot possibly (or politically, rather) print enough money to counteract the real deflation that's happening?

On the surface, the numbers may work (as horrible as it is to print one's way out of this situation). If the world is over-indebted by about $150T, you need about $15T in new base-money to support it. Ben's already printed a few Trillion. QEternity will probably expand into at least $100B/mo; ie, $1.2T/yr, and other central banks are doing the same. So they'll collectively probably print at least $15T total within 5-7yrs.

Or are you simply arguing that the injection of base-money is not relevant since all it'll do is distort the global economy to the point of massive dislocation as opposed to actually offsetting deflation?


Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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November 29, 2012, 07:58:32 PM
 #3690

....  we are going to clear the bad debts and reduce the derivatives mountain.   this means the USD will go up, gold and silver down, and we all get back to saving and a more constrained way of living.

and no, the Fed will not be able to save everyone's assets.  Ben is going to be punished severely and will go down in history as one of the worst central bankers that ever lived.



Ok, so just to play devil's advocate on this one for the moment so that I better understand your argument:

If we're clearing bad debts and derivatives, yes, that's going to deflate the money supply (all of them except base-money). Obviously the Fed is trying to counter-act that with new base(ish)-money. Are you simply asserting that the Fed cannot possibly (or politically, rather) print enough money to counteract the real deflation that's happening?

On the surface, the numbers may work (as horrible as it is to print one's way out of this situation). If the world is over-indebted by about $150T, you need about $15T in new base-money to support it. Ben's already printed a few Trillion. QEternity will probably expand into at least $100B/mo; ie, $1.2T/yr, and other central banks are doing the same. So they'll collectively probably print at least $15T total within 5-7yrs.

Or are you simply arguing that the injection of base-money is not relevant since all it'll do is distort the global economy to the point of massive dislocation as opposed to actually offsetting deflation?



i'm asserting both.  politically Ben won't be able to get away with it with either the ppl or investors.  what is Bitcoin about after all?  it's a revolution against what Ben is doing.  also, the elite/investor class cannot afford to destroy the USD which is the true basis of their wealth as illusionary as it is, not gold.  they won't let him hyperinflate.  plus the size of the derivatives tower, depending on how you measure it, is in the quadrillion range.  he will never print so much to fill that hole.  and i think the investor/speculator class has been busy offloading their bad assets onto the suckers who've piled in over the last 4 mo having been convinced we are heading into the next reflationary cycle.

if he does try to print, yes, the distortions will kill the economy.  didn't he just announce QEternity in September and what has happened since?  we're are still deflating and much of the world is in recession including the US.  my cycle work suggests that we are heading into another "bust" phase of the boom/bust cycle that this type of monetary disorder creates.  in the end, it won't matter what Ben does; he'll lose control along with the other CB's.
SkRRJyTC
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November 29, 2012, 08:17:07 PM
 #3691

Silver is really pulling away from Gold the last few weeks...

Anyone think its possible that Gold goes under $1500 while Silver makes new all time highs above $50?

Yes.  Gold:Silver is way high.

In my limited experience with the commodities market, Gold and Silver have almost traded in lock step.  Its a very strange feeling that I get when I see Silver diverging from Gold...

I have been confident in my bullish Gold predictions here mostly due to the bullish features of Silver... now it seems that the two PMs may separate.  Good thing Im only actually invested in Silver and BTC, no Gold for me at the moment Cheesy.
miscreanity
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November 29, 2012, 08:18:33 PM
 #3692

i'm asserting both.  politically Ben won't be able to get away with it with either the ppl or investors.  what is Bitcoin about after all?  it's a revolution against what Ben is doing.  also, the elite/investor class cannot afford to destroy the USD which is the true basis of their wealth as illusionary as it is, not gold.  they won't let him hyperinflate.  plus the size of the derivatives tower, depending on how you measure it, is in the quadrillion range.  he will never print so much to fill that hole.  and i think the investor/speculator class has been busy offloading their bad assets onto the suckers who've piled in over the last 4 mo having been convinced we are heading into the next reflationary cycle.

Gold is a cumulative savings for a percentage of elite wealth (and anyone else who realizes this). The 'true basis' is ownership of any real asset leading to a flow of wealth. It doesn't matter whether a currency is stable or hyperinflates - revenue streams still function one way or another.

The dollar is rapidly losing primacy; it is not an item to be saved.

How do you get a crew to want to get off of a nuclear submarine? Radiation leak
How do you get a population to want to shift to a centralized global currency? Toxic money

if he does try to print, yes, the distortions will kill the economy.  didn't he just announce QEternity in September and what has happened since?  we're are still deflating and much of the world is in recession including the US.  my cycle work suggests that we are heading into another "bust" phase of the boom/bust cycle that this type of monetary disorder creates.  in the end, it won't matter what Ben does; he'll lose control along with the other CB's.

Agreed Smiley
miscreanity
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November 29, 2012, 08:22:03 PM
 #3693

In my limited experience with the commodities market, Gold and Silver have almost traded in lock step.  Its a very strange feeling that I get when I see Silver diverging from Gold...

As notme noted, the GSR is very high. Silver normally accelerates faster than gold, but it also crashes faster as well. So far, nothing out of the ordinary - this feels like the beginning of an enormous move; just be prepared for a gut-wrenching roller-coaster ride.
cypherdoc
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November 30, 2012, 03:53:28 PM
 #3694

 "The Grind"  Wink
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November 30, 2012, 04:30:52 PM
 #3695

Dashed Dreams:

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November 30, 2012, 06:10:00 PM
 #3696

Dashed Dreams:



I'm still not all back in, buying oppurtunity Smiley
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November 30, 2012, 06:11:21 PM
 #3697

Dashed Dreams:



I'm still not all back in, buying oppurtunity Smiley

thats the spirit!
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November 30, 2012, 06:12:08 PM
 #3698

Dashed Dreams:



I'm still not all back in, buying oppurtunity Smiley

Top of a cycle, I'm happily holding my short and not nearly ready to exit yet

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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November 30, 2012, 06:28:52 PM
 #3699

Dashed Dreams:



I'm still not all back in, buying oppurtunity Smiley

Top of a cycle, I'm happily holding my short and not nearly ready to exit yet

oh noes!  another short!  Wink

btw, my GG short is killing it with SLW not far behind.
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November 30, 2012, 06:39:16 PM
 #3700

Silver is really pulling away from Gold the last few weeks...

Anyone think its possible that Gold goes under $1500 while Silver makes new all time highs above $50?

Yes.  Gold:Silver is way high.

In my limited experience with the commodities market, Gold and Silver have almost traded in lock step.  Its a very strange feeling that I get when I see Silver diverging from Gold...

I have been confident in my bullish Gold predictions here mostly due to the bullish features of Silver... now it seems that the two PMs may separate.  Good thing Im only actually invested in Silver and BTC, no Gold for me at the moment Cheesy.

just when you think you're on to something:

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