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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806965 times)
notme
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September 25, 2012, 04:50:13 PM
 #3261


Because we're at the top of a bubble.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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cypherdoc
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September 25, 2012, 04:50:33 PM
 #3262


b/c all those references involve BARS, not coins.  plus, even though we can assume the coin fakes have been around for some time, its now getting out in the media in a more substantial manner.  sometimes realization takes time.
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September 25, 2012, 04:56:26 PM
 #3263


b/c all those references involve BARS, not coins.  plus, even though we can assume the coin fakes have been around for some time, its now getting out in the media in a more substantial manner.  sometimes realization takes time.

Sorry about that I missed the point.

1972
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=QcUtAAAAIBAJ&sjid=j6EFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5043,7093279&dq=fake+gold+coins&hl=en

1980
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=BsRAAAAAIBAJ&sjid=DqYMAAAAIBAJ&pg=4592,3319549&dq=fake+gold+coins&hl=en

1998
http://www.nytimes.com/1998/11/27/business/international-business-hunter-admits-sale-of-fake-gold-coins.html
SkRRJyTC
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September 25, 2012, 04:57:16 PM
 #3264


hmm... Under all time highs + "we're at the top of a bubble" = does not compute.
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September 25, 2012, 05:00:37 PM
 #3265


again, coin fakes may have been around for a while but its the realization and sentiment behind further investment in gold which may take a big hit from the increased media attention.  apparently it has gotten much more profitable to engage in this fraudulent activity and the actors are now willing to take more risks as evidenced by the fact that now 10 tungsten gold BARS have been found in Manhattan being peddled by supposed legit dealers.

we knew about the subprime loan problem for at least a year and a half before the "oh shit" moment occurred.  just sayin'.
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September 25, 2012, 05:03:56 PM
 #3266

Alright I understand what you are saying now.

I agree with "its the realization and sentiment behind further investment in gold which may take a big hit from the increased media attention."  I guess I just dont agree that it is a "game changer".

The more profitable it becomes to make fakes, the more profitable it becomes to market a handheld ultrasound device to PM investors... The market will fix this issue of fakes on its own.
cypherdoc
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September 25, 2012, 05:08:06 PM
 #3267

Alright I understand what you are saying now.

I agree with "its the realization and sentiment behind further investment in gold which may take a big hit from the increased media attention."  I guess I just dont agree that it is a "game changer".

The more profitable it becomes to make fakes, the more profitable it becomes to market a handheld ultrasound device to PM investors... The market will fix this issue of fakes on its own.

thats a good idea about an US device but it would probably be too expensive.  mine cost over $50K but its a specialized device.

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them.  and i bought them way before $1000.  i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.
Severian
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September 25, 2012, 05:13:45 PM
 #3268

this is very true altho it may be hard for silver to rally if gold doesn't.

Normally, I'd agree with you. These aren't "normal" days.

When the stampede from paper to real world assets begins, a larger percentage of the clued-in crowd might steer away from the usual gold assets due to the doubt you mention and head to silver. It takes more work than it's worth to make a 1948 Washington quarter. Smiley
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September 25, 2012, 05:17:32 PM
 #3269

this is very true altho it may be hard for silver to rally if gold doesn't.

Normally, I'd agree with you. These aren't "normal" days.

When the stampede from paper to real world assets begins, a larger percentage of the clued-in crowd might steer away from the usual gold assets due to the doubt you mention and head to silver. It takes more work than it's worth to make a 1948 Washington quarter. Smiley

you're probably right about junk silver but Morgan's no:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110494.msg1220008#msg1220008

which reminds me.  in the past i've been willing to buy those bags without breaking the seal so that i could return them w/o the coin dealer likewise breaking the seal to count them.  if i do ever buy junk bags again i might have to open up those puppies and count/inspect them thoroughly.
cypherdoc
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September 25, 2012, 05:20:37 PM
 #3270

the really scary part of this is that with today's technology why is it so unlikely that a motivated coin scammer wouldn't be able to fake fill even a junk silver dime?
Severian
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September 25, 2012, 05:30:52 PM
 #3271

which reminds me.  in the past i've been willing to buy those bags without breaking the seal so that i could return them w/o the coin dealer likewise breaking the seal to count them.  if i do ever buy junk bags again i might have to open up those puppies and count/inspect them thoroughly.

I can tell a fake silver coin from a real one in two seconds by its sound. I can even hear a silver coin in a cash register till. Gold doesn't have the same sonic properties or maybe I just haven't handled enough of it to be able to discern the difference.

If ag:au ratio drops another 15-20%, fake silver bars will be the next worry. Junk silver might have a shot at being the safest bet in the coming bloodbath. That would be ironic, to say the least.
cypherdoc
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September 25, 2012, 05:32:53 PM
 #3272

which reminds me.  in the past i've been willing to buy those bags without breaking the seal so that i could return them w/o the coin dealer likewise breaking the seal to count them.  if i do ever buy junk bags again i might have to open up those puppies and count/inspect them thoroughly.

I can tell a fake silver coin from a real one in two seconds by its sound. I can even hear a silver coin in a cash register till. Gold doesn't have the same sonic properties or maybe I just haven't handled enough of it to be able to discern the difference.

If ag:au ratio drops another 15-20%, fake silver bars will be the next worry. Junk silver might have a shot at being the safest bet in the coming bloodbath. That would be ironic, to say the least.

one has to assume though that the tech exists to fake fill even junk dimes.  how does the avg person protect themselves against that, you excluded?
Severian
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September 25, 2012, 05:39:42 PM
 #3273

one has to assume though that the tech exists to fake fill even junk dimes.  how does the avg person protect themselves against that, you excluded?

They can call me. Smiley

Kidding aside, it will be a problem when it becomes profitable enough to do so. The standard blow test is always handy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0h0_NouPj8
cypherdoc
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September 25, 2012, 05:50:13 PM
 #3274

one has to assume though that the tech exists to fake fill even junk dimes.  how does the avg person protect themselves against that, you excluded?

They can call me. Smiley

Kidding aside, it will be a problem when it becomes profitable enough to do so. The standard blow test is always handy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0h0_NouPj8

chime? lol!

so am i correct that when Armageddon hits and gold and silver resume its currency status that every tx will require the assistance of a magnet, ultrasound, electrical conductivity meter, and chime test?  or just call Severian? Cheesy

and they say Bitcoin is complicated!
Severian
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September 25, 2012, 05:56:48 PM
 #3275

so am i correct that when Armageddon hits and gold and silver resume its currency status that every tx will require the assistance of a magnet, ultrasound, electrical conductivity meter, and chime test?  or just call Severian?


I think we'll be suited for this brave new world that's just around the corner.Smiley
notme
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September 25, 2012, 06:10:25 PM
 #3276


Give it a year.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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September 25, 2012, 07:25:38 PM
 #3277

The real crazy thing to me is that dealers don't have even a cheap ultrasound tester. Pretty sure cypherdoc's one is not needed to see the difference (ZH people were saying something 200$ worth is good enough). I guess now more will, and will agree to do testing in front of customers.

But the good news is that it's yet another argument for bitcoin.

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Melbustus
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September 25, 2012, 09:10:04 PM
 #3278

Yeah, I was gonna say... It should be possible to get/build an appropriate ultrasound tester for $100-$300. I have some equipment I'll be experimenting with, and some Caltech-educated EE friends that should be able to help out... I'm pretty confident this can be done cheaply.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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September 25, 2012, 09:26:11 PM
 #3279

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them.  and i bought them way before $1000.  i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.


Yeah, people are definitely going to be pretty worried about their physical... But I suspect *most* (in private hands, at least) will be found to be legit. Cheap testing equipment will proliferate a bit, and this will blow over. Obviously, I could be wrong, but these things generally tend to get blown out of proportion...

You're looking at this as really bearish for gold. What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? Maybe this just causes a big spread to develop between paper and (legit)physical... ?

Disclosure: I'm neither bullish nor bearish on gold. Too much variance on all the variables, leading to statistical noise in aggregate, in my opinion... Bitcoin, on the other hand, I'm pretty bullish on. And yeah, good luck filling bitcoin with tungsten.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
SkRRJyTC
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September 25, 2012, 09:49:22 PM
 #3280

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them.  and i bought them way before $1000.  i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.
...What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? ...

I think the flip side is simply that fakes wouldn't be becoming more prolific after the bubble has popped and the price is on the way down.  I think its much more likely that fakes start to flood the market as we build up to the real bubble top.
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