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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805132 times)
lebing
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December 28, 2012, 09:05:23 PM
 #3901

Gold collapsing, Bitcoin up.

Did the number of your subscribers rose lately?

no.  i wish.  my problem is that there are a few guys around here who love to troll the hell out of me which does not help  Sad  and i'm not one to just hit the ignore button. (which doesn't help either)

Try open sourcing things.  In that world, people who demonstrate a significant expertise in a particular field are often retained by those who value said expertise.  In exchange for money.

I'll bet a few of those who 'troll you' incessantly actually have some respect for, and interest in, your insights and find you to be out in front in certain lines of thought...even if they disagree somewhat with your synthesis.  Indeed, this thread, which shows little sign of abating or being terminated by TPTB, has proven a pretty decent vehicle for some open-source philosophical work.



thanks for the words of encouragement.  you are a good man. 

my family thinks i'm opinionated as well so i probably need to take part of the blame here.  i'm guess i'm spoiled as i don't have a boss and no one's opinion matters except mine in my business.  after all, ppl only come to the business for me and me alone as i'm pretty good at what i do.  the trolls here are the most counter-opinion i take in my life if you can believe that.  Grin  maybe that's why i can't ignore them?  Tongue

what i do with the newsletter is purely a hobby which i enjoy.  i only do it to get a small reward for all the time i spend analyzing markets.  i think it's good advice but everyone is free to disagree.

it probably is good advice, but its next to impossible to figure out exactly what you are advising on when you advise. I would have kept paying for it, but your messages were just too cryptic.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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December 28, 2012, 09:08:29 PM
 #3902

Gold collapsing, Bitcoin up.

Did the number of your subscribers rose lately?

no.  i wish.  my problem is that there are a few guys around here who love to troll the hell out of me which does not help  Sad  and i'm not one to just hit the ignore button. (which doesn't help either)

Try open sourcing things.  In that world, people who demonstrate a significant expertise in a particular field are often retained by those who value said expertise.  In exchange for money.

I'll bet a few of those who 'troll you' incessantly actually have some respect for, and interest in, your insights and find you to be out in front in certain lines of thought...even if they disagree somewhat with your synthesis.  Indeed, this thread, which shows little sign of abating or being terminated by TPTB, has proven a pretty decent vehicle for some open-source philosophical work.



thanks for the words of encouragement.  you are a good man.  

my family thinks i'm opinionated as well so i probably need to take part of the blame here.  i'm guess i'm spoiled as i don't have a boss and no one's opinion matters except mine in my business.  after all, ppl only come to the business for me and me alone as i'm pretty good at what i do.  the trolls here are the most counter-opinion i take in my life if you can believe that.  Grin  maybe that's why i can't ignore them?  Tongue

what i do with the newsletter is purely a hobby which i enjoy.  i only do it to get a small reward for all the time i spend analyzing markets.  i think it's good advice but everyone is free to disagree.

it probably is good advice, but its next to impossible to figure out exactly what you are advising on when you advise. I would have kept paying for it, but your messages were just too cryptic.

ok.  thanx for the feedback.  it certainly isn't intentional.
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December 29, 2012, 09:33:34 PM
 #3903

ok cool.  i got Think or Swim to work in Ubuntu.  now i only need to get Sierra Charts working in Ubuntu as well and then i can make the total transition.  does it have to be run in Wine?

edit:  also need to run Fidelity ATP in ubuntu as well.  anyone have experience with this?
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January 04, 2013, 12:14:25 AM
 #3904

Gold down, Bitcoin stable.
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January 04, 2013, 12:15:32 AM
 #3905

there's that word "collapse" again:  http://www.reddit.com/tb/15rvd7
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January 04, 2013, 10:32:10 PM
 #3906

there's that word "collapse" again:  http://www.reddit.com/tb/15rvd7

you had a talk with Trace?

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January 04, 2013, 10:58:53 PM
 #3907

For the record, here's a prediction.

I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver.  This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.)  Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.

While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for.  I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.

As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction.  None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall.  OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.


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January 04, 2013, 11:14:07 PM
 #3908

... Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king...

You mean physical like this?


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January 04, 2013, 11:18:43 PM
 #3909

For the record, here's a prediction.

I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver.  This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.)  Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.

While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for.  I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.

As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction.  None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall.  OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.



interesting.  i could see that.

don't get me wrong.  long term, as in very long term (5-10 years), i think the USD is toast.  it's just a matter of what happens in the next cycle.
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January 04, 2013, 11:26:49 PM
 #3910

... Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king...

You mean physical like this?



Ya, sorta.  As I've said before, I don't have much use for combining Bitcoin and PM's as Casascius does other than for one-off conversation pieces.  But I do highly appreciate and respect his efforts.

I might have mentioned that my prediction, should it come to light, will give the concept of 'counter-party risk' a significant impulse which will implant it into the consciousness of many market participants.  This will likely have every bit as much effect on Bitcoin as it would on PM's, and with luck will catapult the valuations of BTC into the orbit that the solution deserves.  That is, OMHO, in the $1000's/BTC range.

Of course in order to 'pay off',  Bitcoin needs to survive and adapt to attacks not yet seen.  I've balanced my holdings of BTC and PMs to the ratio which I am comfortable with given my interpretation of the various risks of each vehicle.  And, of course, the potential reward as well.


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January 05, 2013, 05:58:01 PM
 #3911


I might have mentioned that my prediction, should it come to light, will give the concept of 'counter-party risk' a significant impulse which will implant it into the consciousness of many market participants.

can you specify what you mean in more detail? thanks


This will likely have every bit as much effect on Bitcoin as it would on PM's, and with luck will catapult the valuations of BTC into the orbit that the solution deserves.  That is, OMHO, in the $1000's/BTC range.

Of course in order to 'pay off',  Bitcoin needs to survive and adapt to attacks not yet seen.  I've balanced my holdings of BTC and PMs to the ratio which I am comfortable with given my interpretation of the various risks of each vehicle.  And, of course, the potential reward as well.

what are the risks and opportunities you see for both, BTC and PM's in the next 2-4 years?

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January 05, 2013, 06:22:35 PM
 #3912

For the record, here's a prediction.

I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver.  This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.)  Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.

While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for.  I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.

As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction.  None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall.  OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.



interesting.  i could see that.

don't get me wrong.  long term, as in very long term (5-10 years), i think the USD is toast.  it's just a matter of what happens in the next cycle.

The Dollar wont go away silently. Money are the least of your worries.

Grin SLOT machine with generous payouts and affiliate program. BTC No registration needed BTC Start playing within seconds BTC Provably fair and transparent BTC Win up to 5000 times your bet BTC Or make 30% by referring friends. ->  BitBandit.eu
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January 05, 2013, 06:38:36 PM
 #3913

For the record, here's a prediction.

I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver.  This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.)  Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.

While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for.  I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.

As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction.  None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall.  OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.



interesting.  i could see that.

don't get me wrong.  long term, as in very long term (5-10 years), i think the USD is toast.  it's just a matter of what happens in the next cycle.

The Dollar wont go away silently. Money are the least of your worries.

Oh yeah? So if money is the least of our worries what is more important?

Food? Fuel? Water? Shelter?

Oh right they all require money to purchase those items.

Obviously you have NO CLUE what you are talking about.

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January 05, 2013, 06:56:19 PM
 #3914

For the record, here's a prediction.

I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver.  This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.)  Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.

While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for.  I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.

As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction.  None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall.  OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.



interesting.  i could see that.

don't get me wrong.  long term, as in very long term (5-10 years), i think the USD is toast.  it's just a matter of what happens in the next cycle.

The Dollar wont go away silently. Money are the least of your worries.

Oh yeah? So if money is the least of our worries what is more important?

Food? Fuel? Water? Shelter?

Oh right they all require money to purchase those items.

Obviously you have NO CLUE what you are talking about.

Yes you got it, it were those in those lines I was talking. You are really an unpolite b****d when you wan't to.

Grin SLOT machine with generous payouts and affiliate program. BTC No registration needed BTC Start playing within seconds BTC Provably fair and transparent BTC Win up to 5000 times your bet BTC Or make 30% by referring friends. ->  BitBandit.eu
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January 05, 2013, 06:58:43 PM
 #3915

For the record, here's a prediction.

I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver.  This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.)  Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.

While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for.  I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.

As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction.  None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall.  OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.



interesting.  i could see that.

don't get me wrong.  long term, as in very long term (5-10 years), i think the USD is toast.  it's just a matter of what happens in the next cycle.

The Dollar wont go away silently. Money are the least of your worries.

Oh yeah? So if money is the least of our worries what is more important?

Food? Fuel? Water? Shelter?

Oh right they all require money to purchase those items.

Obviously you have NO CLUE what you are talking about.

You know how many ESL people there are on these boards, right smoothie?

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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January 05, 2013, 11:45:50 PM
 #3916


I might have mentioned that my prediction, should it come to light, will give the concept of 'counter-party risk' a significant impulse which will implant it into the consciousness of many market participants.

can you specify what you mean in more detail? thanks

just a guess, but he might mean people will say: "What the shit? I can't get my gold from these comex fuckers? They want to give me USD instead? I didn't own any actual claim on any actual gold all this time? They didn't even have any significant amount of metal? Screw that, I'll never trust any counter-party that easily any more, no matter what they tell me... I'M PISSED! Now let me figure out how to use this hardware bitcoin personal bank USB thingy"

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January 06, 2013, 06:35:19 AM
 #3917


I might have mentioned that my prediction, should it come to light, will give the concept of 'counter-party risk' a significant impulse which will implant it into the consciousness of many market participants.

can you specify what you mean in more detail? thanks

I mean simply that if there are a sudden slew of defaults effecting a lot of things (physical PM's, pension funds, etc, etc) it will become a lot more clear to people that things without counter-party risk are worth a huge premium (or conversely, those which do have this risk deserve a giant discount.)  Physical gold in hand and Bitcoin with secure secret keys are two items which simply lack this risk.

This will likely have every bit as much effect on Bitcoin as it would on PM's, and with luck will catapult the valuations of BTC into the orbit that the solution deserves.  That is, OMHO, in the $1000's/BTC range.

Of course in order to 'pay off',  Bitcoin needs to survive and adapt to attacks not yet seen.  I've balanced my holdings of BTC and PMs to the ratio which I am comfortable with given my interpretation of the various risks of each vehicle.  And, of course, the potential reward as well.

what are the risks and opportunities you see for both, BTC and PM's in the next 2-4 years?

The risk factors that I fear most for Bitcoin involve supplantation by a superior system or control of the internet by a coordination of network carries (directed by governments and the force of law that they command) such that traffic associated with the solution is disrupted enough to cause problems for the system as currently envisioned.

I don't really see much risk for PM's in this timeframe.

I don't think that either PM's or Bitcoin will do much except drift upward in a steady-state such as we have today.  And it is very possibly that a string of monetary and regulatory inventions can string things along through the next few years.

I've always theorized that should the current western monetary systems fail, it may well be sudden and catastrophic (mostly since that failure mode would be the most advantageous to the well connected.)  If that happens in the next few years, PM's could do well, but Bitcoin could do amazing things.  Even if the upheavals of a monetary system collapse disrupted availability of the internet as we currently know it, Bitcoin could still operate on a side-band network and provide one of the only ways to make large transfers across geography.  This capability would be of immense value and Bitcoin valuations would rise accordingly.


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January 06, 2013, 08:36:00 AM
 #3918


I might have mentioned that my prediction, should it come to light, will give the concept of 'counter-party risk' a significant impulse which will implant it into the consciousness of many market participants.

can you specify what you mean in more detail? thanks

I mean simply that if there are a sudden slew of defaults effecting a lot of things (physical PM's, pension funds, etc, etc) it will become a lot more clear to people that things without counter-party risk are worth a huge premium (or conversely, those which do have this risk deserve a giant discount.)  Physical gold in hand and Bitcoin with secure secret keys are two items which simply lack this risk.

This will likely have every bit as much effect on Bitcoin as it would on PM's, and with luck will catapult the valuations of BTC into the orbit that the solution deserves.  That is, OMHO, in the $1000's/BTC range.

Of course in order to 'pay off',  Bitcoin needs to survive and adapt to attacks not yet seen.  I've balanced my holdings of BTC and PMs to the ratio which I am comfortable with given my interpretation of the various risks of each vehicle.  And, of course, the potential reward as well.

what are the risks and opportunities you see for both, BTC and PM's in the next 2-4 years?

The risk factors that I fear most for Bitcoin involve supplantation by a superior system or control of the internet by a coordination of network carries (directed by governments and the force of law that they command) such that traffic associated with the solution is disrupted enough to cause problems for the system as currently envisioned.

I don't really see much risk for PM's in this timeframe.

I don't think that either PM's or Bitcoin will do much except drift upward in a steady-state such as we have today.  And it is very possibly that a string of monetary and regulatory inventions can string things along through the next few years.

I've always theorized that should the current western monetary systems fail, it may well be sudden and catastrophic (mostly since that failure mode would be the most advantageous to the well connected.)  If that happens in the next few years, PM's could do well, but Bitcoin could do amazing things.  Even if the upheavals of a monetary system collapse disrupted availability of the internet as we currently know it, Bitcoin could still operate on a side-band network and provide one of the only ways to make large transfers across geography.  This capability would be of immense value and Bitcoin valuations would rise accordingly.



Thanks. It seems we are in the same "team" since my theory and forecast is exactly the same:

Current monetary system to fail, leading to unemployment between 25 - 75 % (yes, this is a wide range and varies by region), social unrest, system breakdowns (electricity, internet), wars (I pray that it won't lead to the ultimate nuclear earth wipe-out).
During this financial breakdown, PM and Bitcoin will likely do very well. For bitcoin, of course provided that the network stays intact.
And Gold will likely first decline in value and could go down even into the 1000 - 600 zone before reversing and then rallying to unprecedented levels.

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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January 06, 2013, 02:02:11 PM
 #3919

For the record, here's a prediction.

I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver.  This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.)  Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.

While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for.  I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.

As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction.  None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall.  OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.



interesting.  i could see that.

don't get me wrong.  long term, as in very long term (5-10 years), i think the USD is toast.  it's just a matter of what happens in the next cycle.

Oh good, my student loans might be inflated away

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Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
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January 07, 2013, 04:24:46 AM
 #3920


Oh good, my student loans might be inflated away

I am projecting that in all but the most devastating of collapse environments, Joe Sixpack will find that any documentable debts (to well connected parties) left over from the dollar days will be rolled into a similar debt valued whatever becomes the new legal tender, and normalized against some basket of tangibles.  In other words, unless you are a multinational with derivatives losses and that sort of thing, you probably should not expect a free ride complements of a monetary re-set.

As always, just my guess on how things would likely evolve.


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