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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805649 times)
vokain
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November 05, 2013, 03:07:23 PM
 #6301

Until the tax man accepts payment in BTC, that's unfortunately not a realistic argument.
Become a permanent international traveller and you can largely escape the tax man's effective reach.

do you have any more information on this?

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

there's been a ton of depositor activity in Bitfinex, competing for lending rates

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Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. Header-only clients like MultiBit trust that the majority of mining power is honest for the purposes of enforcing network rules such as the 21 million BTC limit. Full clients do not trust miners in this way.
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November 05, 2013, 03:08:57 PM
 #6302

do you have any more information on this?
No, but Doug Casey, Jeff Berwick, and a few others do.
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November 05, 2013, 03:10:28 PM
 #6303

do you have any more information on this?
No, but Doug Casey, Jeff Berwick, and a few others do.

thank you

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Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
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November 05, 2013, 03:59:25 PM
 #6304


ew fiat  Wink
draw fiat from BTC stash when needed, Bitcoin is your new retirement account

Until the tax man accepts payment in BTC, that's unfortunately not a realistic argument.

Taxes are included in "draw fiat from BTC stash WHEN NEEDED".

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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November 05, 2013, 04:11:38 PM
 #6305

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

billions of dollars into the exchanges?  Definitely not, total market cap isn't even 3 billion.
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November 05, 2013, 06:29:29 PM
 #6306

It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.
Peter Lambert
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November 05, 2013, 06:52:38 PM
 #6307

It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.

I am guessing we will see 1 BTC = 1 XAG before the end of 2016.

But what I think is a more interesting comparison: when will the market cap of bitcoins surpass the market cap of gold?

Use CoinBR to trade bitcoin stocks: CoinBR.com

The best place for betting with bitcoin: BitBet.us
molecular
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November 05, 2013, 07:16:24 PM
 #6308

It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.

I am guessing we will see 1 BTC = 1 XAG before the end of 2016.

But what I think is a more interesting comparison: when will the market cap of bitcoins surpass the market cap of gold?

Despite Mrs. Hudes affirmations I'm assuming 5 billion ounces of gold exist. So for every bitcoin that will ever exist there's 238 ounces of gold.

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
rpietila
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November 05, 2013, 07:47:45 PM
 #6309

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019
Where have I seen that 300,000 number before?   Might have been a call for Dec this year    Wink

Good numbers never die. My current target is 2016 however.

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November 05, 2013, 07:52:21 PM
 #6310

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019
Where have I seen that 300,000 number before?   Might have been a call for Dec this year    Wink

Good numbers never die. My current target is 2016 however.

Would be hilarious (but completely unrealistic of course) if the prediction would end up coming true. I think I would get quite drunk in December Tongue

molecular
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November 05, 2013, 09:12:49 PM
 #6311

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019
Where have I seen that 300,000 number before?   Might have been a call for Dec this year    Wink

Good numbers never die. My current target is 2016 however.

Would be hilarious (but completely unrealistic of course) if the prediction would end up coming true. I think I would get quite drunk in December Tongue

There have been many hilarious predictions that came true already.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
Peter Lambert
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November 05, 2013, 09:29:23 PM
 #6312

It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.

I am guessing we will see 1 BTC = 1 XAG before the end of 2016.

But what I think is a more interesting comparison: when will the market cap of bitcoins surpass the market cap of gold?

Despite Mrs. Hudes affirmations I'm assuming 5 billion ounces of gold exist. So for every bitcoin that will ever exist there's 238 ounces of gold.

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019


I guess it depends on how gold does. As this thread speculates, gold is going down. So bitcoin could be bigger than gold at a lower price point than that, but I think the order of magnitude is about right. Plus, since nobody knows exactly how many ounces of gold exist we will never be able to pinpoint the moment that bitcoin is bigger than gold.

Use CoinBR to trade bitcoin stocks: CoinBR.com

The best place for betting with bitcoin: BitBet.us
User705
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November 06, 2013, 02:54:21 AM
 #6313

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?
Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population.  I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded.  Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap.  I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate.  Or look at their sell book.  Currently bitcoin is like a stock.  There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.
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November 06, 2013, 03:11:28 AM
 #6314

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?
Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population.  I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded.  Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap.  I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate.  Or look at their sell book.  Currently bitcoin is like a stock.  There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.

The circulating bitcoins have to move ridiculously fast or a large portion of all bitcoins have to be in movement, otherwise it's hard to explain why Silk Road managed to process 9.5 million bitcoins in less than 3 years.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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November 06, 2013, 03:25:53 AM
 #6315

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?
Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population.  I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded.  Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap.  I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate.  Or look at their sell book.  Currently bitcoin is like a stock.  There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.

The circulating bitcoins have to move ridiculously fast or a large portion of all bitcoins have to be in movement, otherwise it's hard to explain why Silk Road managed to process 9.5 million bitcoins in less than 3 years.

That is profound a few Bitcoin have quite a high velocity.
Am I correct in predicting if the velocity of money slows we get price deflation (Bitcoin increase in value)

Also time for an update - G v B and also a peek to peek comparison with gold.
(I'm on my phone so I'll just hint)

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
oakpacific
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November 06, 2013, 03:39:27 AM
 #6316

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?
Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population.  I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded.  Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap.  I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate.  Or look at their sell book.  Currently bitcoin is like a stock.  There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.

The circulating bitcoins have to move ridiculously fast or a large portion of all bitcoins have to be in movement, otherwise it's hard to explain why Silk Road managed to process 9.5 million bitcoins in less than 3 years.

That is profound a few Bitcoin have quite a high velocity.
Am I correct in predicting if the velocity of money slows we get price deflation (Bitcoin increase in value)

Also time for an update - G v B and also a peek to peek comparison with gold.
(I'm on my phone so I'll just hint)

I think it's only when you can't figure out what the heck is going on in your economy that you have a real economy. Tongue

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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November 06, 2013, 03:53:22 AM
 #6317

It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.

Here's a parity goal:

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November 06, 2013, 04:37:05 AM
 #6318

The last dozen pages of replies from everyone have been phenomenal. A few comments as I see things:

  • Exponential growth is indeed occurring, and wallets are approaching a point of usability and integration that will accelerate that rate
  • Decentralization is the near future; a flat social model that does far more than connect geographical regions
  • Bitcoin is one of several protocols that form a 'subconscious' of sorts for what humanity is creating through technology
  • The systems that will enable growth are already in place, and expansion of them is on the verge of making traditional infrastructure irrelevant
  • Velocity of available coin supply does indeed influence value, much as water pressure affects flow rates - the available supply ought to eventually grow in proportion to the total in existence

This is not so much about oppression and struggle, although those are elements of the process, but more about creation. What will potentially emerge is an immensely connected, hyper-dense fabric steeped in abstract realms.

We will probably end up thinking about this period as weeding out incompatible participants, which is why I see gold as still being relevant for a time. When crypto has won out, the physical illusions will finally fail - but that remains a ways off.

The systems and functions that emerge atop these 'subconscious' processes are yet to manifest. Those will make what we're speculating on into reality - singularity style, for lack of more descriptive terms. It may be possible to roughly equate routing protocols to RNA in biology, with Bitcoin and other crypto structures equivalent to DNA.

In the meantime, the more distributed precious metals ownership is, the less damage governmental control will be able to cause. Crypto ownership by government is less of a concern because their power rests in physical domination, and assets that are transparent remove the ability of such governments to maintain illusions of authority and control (which is why I think we'll soon see direct efforts to attack Bitcoin).
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November 06, 2013, 05:58:21 AM
 #6319

Interesting points, miscreanity.

One thing that occured to me recently is that Bitcoin is a government. Not a coercive central monopoly government, but a system of laws. These laws are not just strictly enforced, they are absolutely unbreakable. You cannot commit a "crime" in Bitcoinland, so no criminal justice system - no police or courts - are needed. No legislature is needed because the laws never change.

What you can do is leave Bitcoinland, by not participating, by not accepting BTC as payment, by not putting your savings in BTC or using bitcoins to buy things. Unlike nation-states, though, you can opt out of Bitcoinland's governance without moving away from your current location. You can "exit in place."

Bitcoin is therefore a non-territorial government, also known as a panarchy or civil association - a "club"-style government where you can opt in and out as you please, to the extent you please, and you can be in more than one such "club." While and insofar as you participate in Bitcoin, you are bound by the laws of the protocol (the Constitution, as it were).

Let's stop and appreciate the amazing advantages of Bitcoin law compared with traditional types of law:

1) Bitcoin law is non-coercive; it is entirely opt-in
2) Bitcoin law is unbreakable and requires no enforcement or adjudication or prison system
3) Bitcoin law is truly democratic in the original sense of "power to the people," not by the power of voice (voting) but by the power of exit (forking, or non-participation)
4) 1+3 means there is no such thing as "tyranny of the majority" in Bitcoin, unlike in a classical democracy

Yet Bitcoin is only one aspect of our lives; it (so far) only covers the financial sphere. It is a government in that it governs our financial dealings to whatever extent we want it to, but it is not a complete government because there is much it doesn't cover: physical harm, fraud, contract law, torts, etc. There are some things that can and are being built on top of the Bitcoin protocol, like colored coins and Mastercoin (additional opt-in governments that you can freely participate in in addition to your participation in Bitcoin), that can handle some of these things.

It will be up to us to devise other intelligent systems that utilize social incentives to attract people into effective and favorable legal structures - of which Bitcoin is one example. Perhaps private courts operating through reputational structures that have yet to be designed. Perhaps even criminal law could be handled by such courts, but for that I leave the argument to Hasnas, Friedman, Rothbard, and others (see The Enterprise of Law, edited by Bruce Benson).

But there is something of still more immediate relevance: not just building the essential features of decentralized governance, which will be a great challenge and take many years, but providing avenues to opt out of centrally monopolized aspects of society that are now still largely central-government-controlled: information/news, education, scientific funding, assistance for the less fortunate, standards, banking, and of course money itself.

Central government doesn't need to provide education, but it does (even private schools are heavily influenced by government funding, etc.). Now the Internet is providing a VASTLY superior alternative, in every conceivable way: veracity, efficacy, cost, accessibility, lack of bias, and encouragement of actual critical thinking rather than status games.

Central government doesn't need to provide information, but it does (even independent news networks develop close ties with government and know who butters their bread, not to mention government regulations raising the barrier to entry for media organizations, inducing a centralizing effect). Now the Internet is providing a VASTLY superior alternative, in every conceivable way: veracity, speed, presence of debate, lack of bias (because many sources), cost, and accessibility.

Central government doesn't need to give money to the less fortunate, but it does (even private charities are heavily influenced by tax breaks and people's biases and economic ignorance due to centralized education and media). Now the Internet and Bitcoin are enabling a VASTLY superior alternative, in every conceivable way: fairness (not coerced from others), efficacy, cost (not mostly lost in a bloated bureaucracy), speed, focus, and degree of actual betterment of circumstances. Here I speak not only of crowdsourced donations and private charities, but also of the lightning efficiency of a free market at bringing down price levels, thereby making people way less poor. Not to mention that everyone who participates gets wealthier each year by leaps and bounds.

Bitcoin is a vastly superior alternative government, and there already are other such alternatives with more coming, and I contend that the future of how to effect social change will be largely about creating systems like Bitcoin that change the groundrules that are available for people to work within.  
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November 06, 2013, 06:02:19 AM
 #6320

One thing that occured to me recently is that Bitcoin is a government. Not a coercive central monopoly government, but a system of laws. These laws are not just strictly enforced, they are absolutely unbreakable. You cannot commit a "crime" in Bitcoinland, so no criminal justice system - no police or courts - are needed. No legislature is needed because the laws never change.
It just occurred to me that dating is rape. Not the type where one party does not consent, but a mutually beneficial and agreed-upon interaction. No force or threats are needed, because both parties are in agreement. Dating is a vastly superior form of rape.
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