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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806437 times)
vokain
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October 29, 2013, 07:19:38 PM
 #6181

don't worry, i get plenty wrong too.

this f*ckin Dow just won't go down and i've been over a year too early on the short side.  one of these days i'll be right. Tongue

but the thing is, i've been SO right with gold and BTC i've been able to hold that pair trade (long Bitcoin:short stocks) the whole time with huge returns.  i think we're getting close to hitting on both sides of that trade though.

if you trade long enough, you'll realize if you can be right more often than wrong you're doing good.  if you can be right for 2 out of the 3 markets you're trading in, that's real good.

better cut ur loss dow prob will top above 30k

Btw, if you don't think Bitcoin has the potential to deflate the stock market then you're not dreaming the true Bitcoin Dream.  Tongue

SO MANY dollars are locked up in the stock market right now. Imo, the stock market is the quintessential representation of US dollar hegemony and power. It's the only thing keeping the US afloat. While not as big as the UST market, it's psychological importance is bigger.

For Bitcoin to achieve the heights we're all dreaming about with lots of zeroes on the end, it will have to crack stocks to draw from that pool of dollars.

Could this be the trigger?
Dept. of Homeland Security Prepares for November Food Stamp Riots?

...مكتوب
Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
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rocks
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October 29, 2013, 08:01:53 PM
 #6182

The bottom line is this:  The powers to be in Silicon Valley are anxious to snatch the reins of their financial destiny away from the banks and Wall Street upon who've they've depended on forever.  And they are going to use Bitcoin as a launching pad to develop a myriad of technical tools to accomplish this task.  They will also contribute their talents in making sure Bitcoin is secure from attack.  They will also use their considerable monetary war chest to lobby Congress to protect Bitcoin for the long term.  These events are how it's going to play out even though they might not exactly realize it yet.

This is very interesting and something I haven't considered before, but makes a lot of sense in light of all the VC focus recently.

The technology industry constantly builds upon previous technologies to create new concepts not even initially considered. Bitcoin as a technology platform works very well in this view, similar to how the basic internet protocol has spawned whole new industries.

As the technology industry relies on Bitcoin more and more, they will fight to ensure it's survival.

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October 29, 2013, 08:35:29 PM
 #6183

Is it just me, or did he openly declare war on DC and everything it stands for?


Yes, he did. With a big Y-Combinator logo on the podium, mentioning bitcoin several times, and telling people to go build apps that facilitate exiting the current system.

Maybe it's just me, but it seems that stuff like this is indicative of a greater trend of people (especially tech-savvy people, obv) viewing government more as a product that requires competitive iteration and customer mobility than as some inevitable and immutable entity in and an of itself. The speaker made a great point; namely that mobile tech is not about location-based-apps, but about making location *irrelevant*.

The way that technology enables both the theoretical decentralization of services and the building of non-location-centric communities implies that traditional notions of patriotism and nationalism can become more aligned with people's natural way of life and ideology across physical boundaries. This is a big shift. Obviously philosophers have debated the nature of human interaction, ideology, and government for millenia, but technological interconnectedness really does open up a very wide range of new possibilities.

Interesting times, indeed.

The bolded part is exactly what the concept of Phyles deals with in Neal Stephensons novel The Diamond Age. Recommended reading if you're interested in that stuff - which you seem to be the way you wrote that post. This was originally one of the things which drew my attention to Bitcoin as I realized how Bitcoin can help facilitate the creation of such things as non-location-centric communities as you put it.

I read Cryptonomicon about 10yrs ago, but haven't read Diamond Age; will check it out. Agree with the theme here that bitcoin is one of many decentralizing technologies that can potentially change a lot about human interaction.


Relevance to thread:

Goldbugs who don't like bitcoin often argue the history of gold; ie, the fact that it's been money for 6000 years (minus the last 42, arguably), while bitcoin is barely 5 years old. What this argument totally fails to appreciate is that the last 100yrs in human history have been so unlike any other 100yr span in our 100000years as homo-sapiens that it's not unreasonable at all to expect things with multi-thousand-year inertia to come to their end in the next few years/decades.



Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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October 29, 2013, 08:35:58 PM
 #6184

Is it just me, or did he openly declare war on DC and everything it stands for?


Yes, he did. With a big Y-Combinator logo on the podium, mentioning bitcoin several times, and telling people to go build apps that facilitate exiting the current system.

Maybe it's just me, but it seems that stuff like this is indicative of a greater trend of people (especially tech-savvy people, obv) viewing government more as a product that requires competitive iteration and customer mobility than as some inevitable and immutable entity in and an of itself. The speaker made a great point; namely that mobile tech is not about location-based-apps, but about making location *irrelevant*.

The way that technology enables both the theoretical decentralization of services and the building of non-location-centric communities implies that traditional notions of patriotism and nationalism can become more aligned with people's natural way of life and ideology across physical boundaries. This is a big shift. Obviously philosophers have debated the nature of human interaction, ideology, and government for millenia, but technological interconnectedness really does open up a very wide range of new possibilities.

Interesting times, indeed.
+1, transformation from the "place of spaces" to the "space of flows". Got a great article about this trend, i will look it up for you.
Found it : http://www.paulos.net/teaching/2009/AE/readings/protected/CyberCitiesReader-Castells.pdf

Bitcoin fits in this trend, and thus it's invention was inevitable. Although that's a bit deterministic to say.
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October 29, 2013, 09:49:25 PM
 #6185

personally, i think the Money Masters in Wall St Washington, London, and Basel are what corrupts Washington everything.  this is the power of the printing press when controlled by private hands (banksters).

that is where the root of the problem lies and this is why we're here.

FTFY.







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When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.

P. J. O'Rourke

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

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October 30, 2013, 12:47:10 PM
 #6186

The best quote at 21:28 min  Grin
http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/29/chamath-palihapitiya-owns-5-million-in-bitcoins-wants-to-own-10-15-million/

Supporting people with beautiful creative ideas. Bitcoin is because of the developers,exchanges,merchants,miners,investors,users,machines and blockchain technologies work together.
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October 31, 2013, 01:26:57 PM
 #6187

Gold down. Bitcoin up.
vokain
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October 31, 2013, 02:12:16 PM
 #6188


this thought coincided nicely with a video spread via the Lifeboat Foundation I saw yesterday

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXq_mVU8nyc

it's true Smiley

...مكتوب
Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
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October 31, 2013, 03:20:42 PM
 #6189


He might not even have to do anything to achieve that.

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October 31, 2013, 03:31:50 PM
 #6190



Well, yeah. I think he means he wants $10-$15m worth averaged in under some number. He noted that he thinks a $10-$15m stash now could end up be worth $100billion down the road. So 10000x return from current prices, which certainly makes him one of the uber-est of bulls (also note his $500k-$1m/btc possibility prediction).

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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October 31, 2013, 06:06:42 PM
 #6191


I've always considered 'bitcoin-days' to be the most logical expression of value magnitudes.  That is, 150 is a 'bitcoin-hour' and 3600 is a 'bitcoin-day' until the next half-ing.  I used this notation when deciding what kind of a position to shoot for when I was in accumulation phase.

A better metric would be simply the percentage of current maximum possible value (meaning ignoring lost bitcoins.)  In that case, .0003 or .03% is about a 'bitcoin-day' at the moment.  But I've never thought of things in those terms except as a mental tool when musing about gross system-level potentials.


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October 31, 2013, 06:25:56 PM
 #6192

A better metric would be simply the percentage of current maximum possible value (meaning ignoring lost bitcoins.)

This.

The reality is we have no idea where bitcoin will end up, but if you are a believer that BTC has a chance to become a reserve asset of sorts (similar to gold, maybe gold 2.0), then by definition your metric for bitcoin ownership should NOT be in dollar terms, but in terms of what percent of the reserve asset do you own.

Under a gold standard people talked in terms of how many oz of gold they had. Under a BTC standard the amount of satoshi is all that you need to discuss, dollar value becomes meaningless.

Currently, it is possible to realistically purchase 0.000x% of the total supply, could you imagine owning 0.0001% of the gold supply under a gold standard. I think this is what chamath was hinting at for the big numbers he suggested.
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October 31, 2013, 06:56:22 PM
 #6193

...
The reality is we have no idea where bitcoin will end up, but if you are a believer that BTC has a chance to become a reserve asset of sorts (similar to gold, maybe gold 2.0), then by definition your metric for bitcoin ownership should NOT be in dollar terms, but in terms of what percent of the reserve asset do you own.
...

Even if bitcoin was used as a pure exchange currency at a decent velocity, the valuations would be huge just to handle the liquidity needs.  But as I've said a million times, trying to scale along that path would change the nature of the solution drastically and it would likely die due to competitive pressures and loss of confidence.

If Bitcoin were to evolve along a 'reserve currency' path I'm not sure what the valuations would be.  If successful in that role, it would share some value with a (probably ever evolving) block of exchange currencies, but would still also be very high since many people have excess value above what they need for their next meal and a need to store it reliably.


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October 31, 2013, 07:26:31 PM
 #6194



Well, yeah. I think he means he wants $10-$15m worth averaged in under some number. He noted that he thinks a $10-$15m stash now could end up be worth $100billion down the road. So 10000x return from current prices, which certainly makes him one of the uber-est of bulls (also note his $500k-$1m/btc possibility prediction).

That's only four more orders of magnitude higher than it is today. The price has been going up about an order of magnitude each year, so that is a perfectly reasonable estimate of where bitcoin prices might be several years down the road.

Use CoinBR to trade bitcoin stocks: CoinBR.com

The best place for betting with bitcoin: BitBet.us
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October 31, 2013, 08:00:28 PM
 #6195

Well, yeah. I think he means he wants $10-$15m worth averaged in under some number. He noted that he thinks a $10-$15m stash now could end up be worth $100billion down the road. So 10000x return from current prices, which certainly makes him one of the uber-est of bulls (also note his $500k-$1m/btc possibility prediction).

That's only four more orders of magnitude higher than it is today. The price has been going up about an order of magnitude each year, so that is a perfectly reasonable estimate of where bitcoin prices might be several years down the road.

Whaile at the same time being so high relative to the wealth on the planet that we can reasonably conclude it cannot go any higher, except in case of a bubble.

Watch out for the great bitcoin bubble of 2016! Some people are actually going to lose by investing in bitcoins!!  Shocked Shocked

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October 31, 2013, 08:06:34 PM
 #6196

what's that sucking sound?

oh, it's the flow of dollars.

look the hell out.
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October 31, 2013, 08:11:18 PM
 #6197

Well, yeah. I think he means he wants $10-$15m worth averaged in under some number. He noted that he thinks a $10-$15m stash now could end up be worth $100billion down the road. So 10000x return from current prices, which certainly makes him one of the uber-est of bulls (also note his $500k-$1m/btc possibility prediction).

That's only four more orders of magnitude higher than it is today. The price has been going up about an order of magnitude each year, so that is a perfectly reasonable estimate of where bitcoin prices might be several years down the road.

Whaile at the same time being so high relative to the wealth on the planet that we can reasonably conclude it cannot go any higher, except in case of a bubble.

Watch out for the great bitcoin bubble of 2016! Some people are actually going to lose by investing in bitcoins!!  Shocked Shocked

I don't know if it is so high ... if the price of a bitcoin goes up 10000x then each bitcoin will be like 2 000 000, so the monetary base of bitcoins would be 42 000 000 000 000, which is not so far off from the 17 000 000 000 000 currently in the US national debt (and the US will probably have debt of 42 000 000 000 000 before then), so I wouldn't say that is "so high relative to the wealth on the planet".

Use CoinBR to trade bitcoin stocks: CoinBR.com

The best place for betting with bitcoin: BitBet.us
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October 31, 2013, 09:44:36 PM
 #6198


I've always considered 'bitcoin-days' to be the most logical expression of value magnitudes.  That is, 150 is a 'bitcoin-hour' and 3600 is a 'bitcoin-day' until the next half-ing.  I used this notation when deciding what kind of a position to shoot for when I was in accumulation phase.

A better metric would be simply the percentage of current maximum possible value (meaning ignoring lost bitcoins.)  In that case, .0003 or .03% is about a 'bitcoin-day' at the moment.  But I've never thought of things in those terms except as a mental tool when musing about gross system-level potentials.

Took me a while to understand your "bitcoin-day" because the term is traditionally used a bit differently (the sum over all inputs of a transaction of the age of the coins multiplied by the amount of coins, as in: "bitcoin days destroyed")

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November 01, 2013, 10:54:06 AM
 #6199

In the first place it was always kind of retarded or economically idiosyncratic to speak of "$100,000" in your bank account. The only reason we'd talk about numbers of "dollars" or "ounces" of gold is simply that we don't know how many dollars or ounces of gold there really are available in the world. There is also the complication that dollars and gold aren't the only moneys; there are also euros, yen, yuan, silver, etc. As a practical matter, therefore, we end up having to speak in terms of monetary units. It's incredibly obfuscating way to talk, though.

A world where a single money had taken over, and where we knew exactly how much had been issued, would be different. In that case - if we knew there was exactly $10 trillion dollars out there - we should simply refer our $100,000 in the bank as "a hundred-millionth." That is, 1/100,000,000 (that is, 0.000001%) of all the purchasing power in the world.

Instead of this:



We would see this, but without the parenthetical explanation since it would be standard:




Now since this IS the case with Bitcoin - we do know how many coins have been issued - we can easily switch to speaking of 100,000 BTC as "about 1%" and 1000 BTC as "about 0.01%" (eventually to become about half that over the course of the next century).

Assuming that Bitcoin does take over the world, the present-day price of 0.000008% ("1 BTC") is around $200. You can own 0.000008% of all the purchasing power in the whole world in the future for just $200 today. Or instead of buying a house now for $240,000, you could own 0.01% (one ten-thousandth) of the global economy in the future, no matter how much huger that global economy may be. Quite a deal.

It doesn't matter what the price is in dollars if Bitcoin does become the standard.

Chamath Palihapitiya controls a two-hundredth of the future global economy and would like to control a one-hundredth or a sixtieth of it. These are the terms I'm sure he's thinking of it in.

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November 01, 2013, 11:47:39 AM
 #6200

Gold down. Bitcoin up.
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