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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804992 times)
molecular
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October 26, 2013, 06:13:02 PM
 #6061

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

Meh, Bitcoin's market cap is currently $2.5B. That is a lot but nothing compared to many $Tillions of gold reserves held.

A Bitcoin price of 500 still only brings the market cap to around $6B, it Bitcoin takes off as a viable reserve asset that is nothing and we still have a way to go.

The reason price targets make no sense is Bitcoin is either going to the moon, or crashing to zero as a failed experiment. I don't see a middle ground. That is the entire premise of this thread IMHO, that BTC will become a reserve asset and in the process go up A LOT. Why trade that asset? Just hold.

+1.  It's always nice to see when someone 'gets it'  (said with an air of presumption which does not escape me...)

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize.  How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing.  And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.

Buy assets when blood is on the streets?

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October 26, 2013, 06:20:15 PM
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Buy assets when blood is on the streets?


Like BTC in late 2011.  Hehe.


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October 26, 2013, 06:23:11 PM
 #6063

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

Meh, Bitcoin's market cap is currently $2.5B. That is a lot but nothing compared to many $Tillions of gold reserves held.

A Bitcoin price of 500 still only brings the market cap to around $6B, it Bitcoin takes off as a viable reserve asset that is nothing and we still have a way to go.

The reason price targets make no sense is Bitcoin is either going to the moon, or crashing to zero as a failed experiment. I don't see a middle ground. That is the entire premise of this thread IMHO, that BTC will become a reserve asset and in the process go up A LOT. Why trade that asset? Just hold.

+1.  It's always nice to see when someone 'gets it'  (said with an air of presumption which does not escape me...)

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize.  How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing.  And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.



this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today.  especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today.  but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.  

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.

I agree.

People who say bitcoin has a 10% chance of success haven't thought things through yet.

The funny thing is: not only "heavyweights" like many people here will be wealthy... one can only recommend to people to get their hands on at least 2100 bits and thereby catapult themselves into the top 10 million wealthiest people by simply holding on to these 2.1 BTC.

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October 26, 2013, 06:23:48 PM
 #6064

sorry to dig out old posts, I'm catching up here Wink

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October 26, 2013, 06:39:19 PM
 #6065

I should note that when I said you wouldn't want much of your wealth in fiat, I was speaking from the point of view of being afraid of being too heavily invested in Bitcoin. Like the situation where you have a $1 million in Bitcoin and only $20,000 in fiat. If Bitcoin somehow fails, you instantly become a meek peon again, financially. So you'd put some decent chunk, like maybe half, into dollars so that in case of Bitcoin failure you still have half a mil in the bank. That's what I guess most smaller investors imagine they will do if they win big in bitcoins.

This is interesting... I have far less money than your example states, but my BTC/fiat ratio is roughly that.

Of course I'm afraid for Bitcoin to fail and to lose almost all of my monetary capital and it's hard to resist the urge and pressure (well, not pressure, but suggestions) by friends & family to convert more funny money to fiat.

Fuck it, if I had thought that way over the course of the last couple of years, I would have only a low fraction of the capital I have now.

My real capital is my skills and friends anyways, so I'll keep on taking the risk and holding on to these precious bitcoins.

As long as cryptocurrency succeeds in any meaningful way, we all live in a better world regardless of personal wealth.

But I'm saying even in that scenario, with those concerns, it's still not very attractive to put half in fiat, or even a third in fiat. Because there are other failures to worry about besides a catastrophe in Bitcoin. There's inflation, wrongful imprisonment (or if you're a bad dude, rightful imprisonment), deportation from your country of residence, other freezing of your assets or haircuts or fraudulent activity on your account or run on your bank, making a mistake in your filings, divorce losing you half your stash, etc. Why do anything so risky as to hold large amounts of fiat??

I conclude: Bitcoin is the safest place to be, especially in uncertain times likes this.

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October 26, 2013, 06:50:11 PM
 #6066

I conclude: Bitcoin is the safest place to be, especially in uncertain times likes this.


If you believe in something and you believe in yourself, is there really any other decision possible?

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October 26, 2013, 06:54:11 PM
 #6067

Like the situation where you have a $1 million in Bitcoin and only $20,000 in fiat.

This is interesting... I have far less money than your example states, but my BTC/fiat ratio is roughly that.

I have also found that optimally I would have 2-3% of total assets in fiat (no matter what the rest has been throughout the years). Anything over, I feel the urge to invest (I will be buying BTC100 next week), anything less, business is not functioning smoothly.

Sweet spot?

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October 26, 2013, 06:54:45 PM
 #6068

My real capital is my skills and friends anyways, so I'll keep on taking the risk and holding on to these precious bitcoins.
This is a great insight.

Most people don't really understand what the world would look like with honest money, and so instead insist on miming the strategies of today's central planners.
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October 26, 2013, 07:08:34 PM
 #6069

I conclude: Bitcoin is the safest place to be, especially in uncertain times likes this.


If you believe in something and you believe in yourself, is there really any other decision possible?

I love this

...مكتوب
Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
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October 26, 2013, 07:08:57 PM
 #6070

Gold's transition should eventually result in extensive industrial uses, as well as medical. I seriously doubt it will ever be worth nothing.
Wow, that's quite a change in tone.

There is a lot of room between "reserve currency of the world" and "fills a few industrial niches". Gold could be going down for a long time.

I've long held the view that the transition is an accelerating process, particularly as written over a year ago in Off-Planet Economics. There are sure to be significant milemarkers along the way, and they reinforce the transitional nature of what we're observing.

As gold gains industrial, medical, and other uses that were impossible prior to more advanced technologies, Bitcoin will encroach upon its monetary role. Gold's exchange value will continue to have tension and won't collapse, short of a situation like that postulated in the above article. So the monetary aspect isn't going to disappear anytime soon, even if it is eroded by crypto - I find them much more likely to rise together against all other forms of money until crypto eventually wins.
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October 26, 2013, 07:22:21 PM
 #6071

Gold's transition should eventually result in extensive industrial uses, as well as medical. I seriously doubt it will ever be worth nothing.
Wow, that's quite a change in tone.

There is a lot of room between "reserve currency of the world" and "fills a few industrial niches". Gold could be going down for a long time.

I've long held the view that the transition is an accelerating process, particularly as written over a year ago in Off-Planet Economics. There are sure to be significant milemarkers along the way, and they reinforce the transitional nature of what we're observing.

As gold gains industrial, medical, and other uses that were impossible prior to more advanced technologies, Bitcoin will encroach upon its monetary role. Gold's exchange value will continue to have tension and won't collapse, short of a situation like that postulated in the above article. So the monetary aspect isn't going to disappear anytime soon, even if it is eroded by crypto - I find them much more likely to rise together against all other forms of money until crypto eventually wins.

I think it at least as likely that people will find crypto-assets and PMs to be complementing forms of wealth storage.  Much as I personally do at this time.


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October 26, 2013, 07:25:27 PM
 #6072

But I'm saying even in that scenario, with those concerns, it's still not very attractive to put half in fiat, or even a third in fiat. Because there are other failures to worry about besides a catastrophe in Bitcoin. There's inflation, wrongful imprisonment (or if you're a bad dude, rightful imprisonment), deportation from your country of residence, other freezing of your assets or haircuts or fraudulent activity on your account or run on your bank, making a mistake in your filings, divorce losing you half your stash, etc. Why do anything so risky as to hold large amounts of fiat??

I conclude: Bitcoin is the safest place to be, especially in uncertain times likes this.

xactly. Even pm in hand cannot compete about expropriation (theoretically).
BTW: anyone knows how they confiscated Dread Pirate Roberts' coins? waterboarding?

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October 26, 2013, 07:36:53 PM
 #6073

Quote
BTW: anyone knows how they confiscated Dread Pirate Roberts' coins? waterboarding?
No, candy treatment, tell and you go home "soon" or we loose the key
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October 26, 2013, 07:46:34 PM
 #6074

There are ~ 3 billion females in the world ... if you offered cheap solid gold jewellery weighing 1.5 oz per female the total stock of gold disappears ... add in macho chains, rings, electronics and myriad of other uses

... gold is not going to be going cheap anytime soon and there are many other price points between cost of mining (which it is near now) and 'cheap' that engineering uses for such an exotic metal when substitution demand kicks in.

Bear in mind that in a better freer future with less financial facism or simply some locales, a system of provably gold-backed cryptocurrency, if it was ever allowed to flourish under rule of law, would probably give bitcoin a stiff run for its money, pun intended, dyodd, diversify, imho.

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October 26, 2013, 07:47:45 PM
 #6075

BTW: anyone knows how they confiscated Dread Pirate Roberts' coins? waterboarding?

after reading many opinions and speculations on reddit, I've come to the conlusion that the most likely two scenarios are:

  • they offered some deal, he took it
  • he was sloppy and used a weak password

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October 26, 2013, 07:52:55 PM
 #6076

Bear in mind that in a better freer future with less financial facism or simply some locales, a system of provably gold-backed cryptocurrency, if it was ever allowed to flourish under rule of law, would probably give bitcoin a stiff run for its money, pun intended, dyodd, diversify, imho.
Why?

A gold backed cryptocurrency would need to do everything Bitcoin does in order to be an effective medium of exchange, and it would also have the added expense of gathering, storing, transporting, securing, and auditing blocks of yellow metal.

What benefit does the yellow metal provide that makes it worth all the added expense and effort?
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October 26, 2013, 07:57:11 PM
 #6077

Bear in mind that in a better freer future with less financial facism or simply some locales, a system of provably gold-backed cryptocurrency, if it was ever allowed to flourish under rule of law, would probably give bitcoin a stiff run for its money, pun intended, dyodd, diversify, imho.
Why?

A gold backed cryptocurrency would need to do everything Bitcoin does in order to be an effective medium of exchange, and it would also have the added expense of gathering, storing, transporting, securing, and auditing blocks of yellow metal.

What benefit does the yellow metal provide that makes it worth all the added expense and effort?

Indeed. A gold backed cryptocurrency is a worse money than both gold and a cryptocurrency by themselves. This will be attempted (because people for some reason like backing, not understanding that good money doesn't need backing of any kind) but will fail. Good money beats bad money just as rock crushes scissors.

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October 26, 2013, 08:04:15 PM
 #6078

Bear in mind that in a better freer future with less financial facism or simply some locales, a system of provably gold-backed cryptocurrency, if it was ever allowed to flourish under rule of law, would probably give bitcoin a stiff run for its money, pun intended, dyodd, diversify, imho.
Why?

A gold backed cryptocurrency would need to do everything Bitcoin does in order to be an effective medium of exchange, and it would also have the added expense of gathering, storing, transporting, securing, and auditing blocks of yellow metal.

What benefit does the yellow metal provide that makes it worth all the added expense and effort?

Indeed. A gold backed cryptocurrency is a worse money than both gold and a cryptocurrency by themselves. This will be attempted (because people for some reason like backing, not understanding that good money doesn't need backing of any kind) but will fail. Good money beats bad money just as rock crushes scissors.

The idea of "backing" blows people's minds.  People feel compelled to locate a persona behind anything and everything.  It's human nature.  

"But who created the universe"  ->  Must be a "God"
"But who 'backs' Bitcoin" ->  Must be a person, business, physical object (a yellow metal) or gov't entity.

If we had to place a persona behind Bitcoin, we'd probably say that it's "backed" by the people, or the users.  A more interesting question would then be "why is it backed by the users?"  Reason and Logic, which lead these users to believe that Bitcoin has intrinsic value as a technology.
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October 26, 2013, 08:07:23 PM
 #6079

Bear in mind that in a better freer future with less financial facism or simply some locales, a system of provably gold-backed cryptocurrency, if it was ever allowed to flourish under rule of law, would probably give bitcoin a stiff run for its money, pun intended, dyodd, diversify, imho.
Why?

A gold backed cryptocurrency would need to do everything Bitcoin does in order to be an effective medium of exchange, and it would also have the added expense of gathering, storing, transporting, securing, and auditing blocks of yellow metal.

What benefit does the yellow metal provide that makes it worth all the added expense and effort?

The great masses of people do not understand how a pure crypto-currency is valuable, maybe never will. They do understand gold, it is much less of a jump to understand gold-backed numbers on their screens. The added expense is a cost but so is bitcoin mining, cold storage, etc the total cost comparison of either system, when optimised, would be nearly impossible to do without having them compete in a free market together. Trust-based systems can be very efficient, think Hawala Wink

Bitcoin value may mostly be symptom of a particularly oppressive time (like cigarette money), an outbreak of freedom and enlightement in financial dealings is a risk that shouldn't be discounted, however slim it seems right now.

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October 26, 2013, 08:09:27 PM
 #6080

Bear in mind that in a better freer future with less financial facism or simply some locales, a system of provably gold-backed cryptocurrency, if it was ever allowed to flourish under rule of law, would probably give bitcoin a stiff run for its money, pun intended, dyodd, diversify, imho.

How would that even work? How to prove there's gold backing it? I don't see how to do this, at least not without "3rd party risk".

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