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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1981670 times)
Zangelbert Bingledack
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November 14, 2013, 12:47:16 AM
 #6441

I'm not a master in these fields but add politics/govt to that mix and you have my 4 greatest interests after history.

History is my true love but after than I learn all I can about the other 4.

It is really hard to grasp BTC. Learning about it in 2010 I was like wow, damn cool but it will never take off. Too many stupid people. Mid 2011 tried to explain to normal people, they think I'm nuts. Even now in late 2013 people come to me about BTC but its, how doers it work? And their eyes glaze over before I'm half way done.

We need to make BTC facebook easy before it really takes off. But by then BTC will be worth $10,000 each so I'm sure we could fund it...

By economics I meant political economy, which includes politics and government. History is also a big help, I think.

One other thing, maybe most important of all, is that it takes life experience to learn how much you can trust your judgment. To learn the difference between confident wishful thinking and confidence with solid backing based on deep understanding, weighing of all factors, not being afraid to think independently, and elimination of blind spots and other weaknesses in your decision-making process - it's extremely difficult, though not impossible, to come by such judgment ability other than by age.
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Zangelbert Bingledack
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November 14, 2013, 12:54:06 AM
 #6442


Peter Schiff is a good example of someone who understands the economics but not the cryptography. He also isn't afraid to think independently but he has a weakness in that he is dismissive of that which he doesn't understand. At this point he should just say, "I can't see how it can work," and get to doing his research on it. I'm afraid his personality will make it take quite a while before he gets around to it, though.
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November 14, 2013, 01:03:34 AM
 #6443


Peter Schiff is a good example of someone who understands the economics but not the cryptography. He also isn't afraid to think independently but he has a weakness in that he is dismissive of that which he doesn't understand. At this point he should just say, "I can't see how it can work," and get to doing his research on it. I'm afraid his personality will make it take quite a while before he gets around to it, though.

Or Americans' old tendency to hate the math and avoid it whenever possible.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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November 14, 2013, 02:22:46 AM
 #6444

I think the sheer number of fields one has to have mastered to really understand Bitcoin and its significance, not just on a gut level but enough to have the iron-clad confidence to make a serious investment and weather the storms along the way, is immense and diverse. Economics (markets, money, incentives, emergent order, entrepreneurship), computer science including recent developments, investing, mathematics (cryptography, the exponential function). Note that very few of these topics are well-covered in school, even at the university level (economics is covered if you major in it, but in a bastardized way).

It simply takes a long time to really master these fields. Especially it takes experience to see the forest for the trees and to see what is really important from among myriad details.

I concur.
Math, cryptography, programming, investing (did programming for William O'Neill & co), systems, economics, have all been helpful, as have career work in banking, telecom and manufacturing.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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November 14, 2013, 02:23:57 AM
 #6445

I'm afraid his personality will make it take quite a while before he gets around to it, though.

his loss

he is certainly on the right track in many respects, but I used to tune in his show on the shortwave and have heard some straight up ignorant shit from him also

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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November 14, 2013, 03:16:22 AM
 #6446


Peter Schiff is a good example of someone who understands the economics but not the cryptography. He also isn't afraid to think independently but he has a weakness in that he is dismissive of that which he doesn't understand. At this point he should just say, "I can't see how it can work," and get to doing his research on it. I'm afraid his personality will make it take quite a while before he gets around to it, though.

He sells silver for a living.
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November 14, 2013, 05:57:33 AM
 #6447


Peter Schiff is a good example of someone who understands the economics but not the cryptography. He also isn't afraid to think independently but he has a weakness in that he is dismissive of that which he doesn't understand. At this point he should just say, "I can't see how it can work," and get to doing his research on it. I'm afraid his personality will make it take quite a while before he gets around to it, though.

He sells silver for a living.

Ironically, I never thought I'd buy another ounce of silver but wishing to re-balance a bit due to increased BTC valuations, I may in fact do just that.  Looks like a screaming deal these days to me (though I liked $4.50 better...)


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November 14, 2013, 06:05:23 AM
 #6448

I used to watch the PM prices all day, but I haven't for a while.  I have a meager stack of silver and a couple slivers of gold.  I'd feel bad about the drop in value, if I weren't so happy about the rise in value of my meager stack of bitcoins.

P.S.  Anyone know a site with persistent image URLs for gold and silver spot charts?

p2pcoin: a USB/CD/PXE p2pool miner - 1N8ZXx2cuMzqBYSK72X4DAy1UdDbZQNPLf - todo
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November 14, 2013, 07:22:39 AM
 #6449

this is OT, but this vid was mentioned here some time ago,
i put it on documentary thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=268955.msg3569469#msg3569469),
and a user asked for background info on James D'Angelo who's doing the 101 Blackboard series on world bitcoin network channel (http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgo7FCCPuylVk4luP3JAgVw/videos).
just doing some research here...
Has somebody any info on this guy's educational background?

James has found his groove.  he's clearly a smart guy.  he's doing a great job with the new blackboard format.

i'd bet he visits this thread regularly given the last gold comparison video he did.  he cited many of the principles i've expounded upon for years now in much the same way.  

he's doing an excellent job.  anyone know his handle around here?

Did you notice that your thread happens to be the only one on the forum tracking the entire Bitcoin price history and people's reactions from 2012 until now? Tongue Even Adam's wall observer thread was rebooted once.

Wonder if the historians of future will scroll through pages to read our replies...

I'd rather guess it will be analytical algorithms scrolling through not only this forum but all available information. Historians can then just ask the bots.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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November 14, 2013, 07:24:21 AM
 #6450

Gold looks foreboding. Bitcoin EXPLODING.

Well you know, we gotta get going.

To get to the parity party.

Edit :  and beyond

I remember when people were talking about silver parity like it was this big thing that might never happen. "But if only it did reach silver parity, maybe then the PM bugs will take Bitcoin seriously." The good old days, nine months ago.

that was a much more significant event than people give it credit for.

gold and silver are linked at the hips more than ppl realize.  silver was supposed to be the metal that REALLY made goldbugs rich in the end as its price projections based on the gold:silver ratio were supposed to head to all time highs with the ratio to all time lows. 

as bullish as i was before, i became 4x more bullish once we passed parity @ around 20.  in order to really understand what is happening, you have to have been a big gold and silver holder.

I see you point and I agree with it. I think it was very noticable in the reception of Bitcoin within the metal-head community, too.

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November 14, 2013, 07:25:37 AM
 #6451


Schiff wants to talk bitcoin with a bitcoiner. reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qkqjr/peter_schiff_has_requested_a_bitcoiner_to_debate/

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November 14, 2013, 07:27:47 AM
 #6452

I'm afraid his personality will make it take quite a while before he gets around to it, though.

his loss

he is certainly on the right track in many respects, but I used to tune in his show on the shortwave and have heard some straight up ignorant shit from him also

Schiff says things like:

Bit coins have no intrinsic value. Since you can divide each "coin" into 10 million smaller units, the total supply is zillions. They are not scare. Dividing bit coins is not like dividing gold coins. Two half-ounce gold coins have half the gold as a one-ounce coin. That is because each half ounce coin contains half the intrinsic value of a full ounce coin. Break a bit coin in half, and each half is basically identical to the whole. Since a bit coin has an intrinsic value of zero, half of zero is still zero. Put it this way, if they sold bit coins in bundles of 10 million, where the individual coins could not be subdivided, and the maximum quantity of those 10 million dollar bundles was 21 million, would anyone claim that bit coins were scarce? This is a ponzi scheme pure and simply and the reaction on this board from those participating in it merely provides more evidence to prove my point.

It hurts! I think he's just sour because he thinks he's missed the train.

EDIT: I think he also made a freudian typo: "They are not scare". Haha, Peter, Bit coins are really really scare!

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November 14, 2013, 07:34:31 AM
 #6453

So that guy, revans, who says in this board that slicing a pie debases its value... it's Schiff!
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November 14, 2013, 03:05:57 PM
 #6454

We need to make BTC facebook easy before it really takes off. But by then BTC will be worth $10,000 each so I'm sure we could fund it...
Wait five years and circle.com will to take care of FB and Walmart (my prediction).
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Supporting people with beautiful creative ideas. Bitcoin is because of the developers,exchanges,merchants,miners,investors,users,machines and blockchain technologies work together.
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November 14, 2013, 03:17:20 PM
 #6455

I used to watch the PM prices all day, but I haven't for a while.  I have a meager stack of silver and a couple slivers of gold.  I'd feel bad about the drop in value, if I weren't so happy about the rise in value of my meager stack of bitcoins.

P.S.  Anyone know a site with persistent image URLs for gold and silver spot charts?

kitco.com ?

Don't suppose there's anyone else here from the old kitco forum of the late 90s?

Namaste

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November 14, 2013, 03:58:36 PM
 #6456

So that guy, revans, who says in this board that slicing a pie debases its value... it's Schiff!


By his logic, he must also think that removing the half-penny from American circulation increased the value of the dollar, lololol. Because it made the "dollar" more "scarce."
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November 15, 2013, 05:20:07 AM
 #6457

this is the speed of adoption that miscreanity underestimated in our earlier debates in 2011.  and he's a young man too.

i'm an old man.  what's that say?:

The Geeks Fail to Understand That Which They Hath Created.

Remember this chart from the middle of last year? Smiley



The projections are exponential curves at discrete levels determined by empirical data, and there are four that I've focused on. At the bottom is an approximately 4.40% weekly growth rate from the beginning of market price availability (sourced from Bitcoincharts.com MtGox data). Next up is ~5% weekly, followed by the post-2011 bubble at ~5% as well (not shown). I found the latter level intriguing because it was the first external use (Silk Road) with a significant impact on the system.

Finally, the current weekly growth rate. That happens to have accelerated somewhat since I made the above chart, from just under 6% to about 6.7% per week.

At the end of December 2012, the above levels for the week of November 11th were:
  • 4.40% $101.27
  • 5.00% $266.74
  • 5.00% $389.56 (post-2011 bubble)
  • 5.95% $1224.52

As of this week, the current growth number puts the value at:
  • 6.74% $4,298.90

My estimates have been particularly conservative because there's a lot that could still impede growth (not stop it), and after watching gold for so many years I find it best to allow for extended listless periods. However, even pessimistically we should see $100k within three years.

It'll be interesting to see how the present regulatory coin validation fiasco flies with the dark wallet opposition potentially gaining major traction. In the end I have no doubt the Faustian gambit will crumble, but it'll be a vicious war. What will concern me is when western goverments promote Bitcoin...
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November 15, 2013, 05:52:00 AM
 #6458


Peter Schiff is a good example of someone who understands the economics but not the cryptography. He also isn't afraid to think independently but he has a weakness in that he is dismissive of that which he doesn't understand. At this point he should just say, "I can't see how it can work," and get to doing his research on it. I'm afraid his personality will make it take quite a while before he gets around to it, though.
This is the dilemma for 99% of financial guys out there.
Their "education" on economics is actually working as a stumbling block to their ability to grasp and accept Bitcoin.
They think they know everything, therefore something that doesn't fit the mold is automatically nonsense.

Bitcoin's true purpose defined in Satoshi's message on the Genesis Block:
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"
View it on the Blockchain | Genesis Block Newspaper Copies
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November 15, 2013, 09:04:11 AM
 #6459

This is the dilemma for 99% of financial guys out there.
Their "education" on economics is actually working as a stumbling block to their ability to grasp and accept Bitcoin.
They think they know everything, therefore something that doesn't fit the mold is automatically nonsense.

Good observation. I used to work in finance and noticed this, too. Whenever explaining anything from the area of economics, the last people to grasp the concept were people who studied economics - because they have had their heads filled with a lot of bullshit concepts during their edumakation, preventing them to see things for what they were, because there were just too many (mostly bogus) concepts getting in their way.

To be fair they were followed by people like lawyers and psychologists, who thought they understand and know everything and were mostly a pain in the ass to deal with.

I had the easiest time with people unsullied by "higher education" or people from computer science or engineering backgrounds.

Actually it's quite fun to watch. Even highly intelligent and knowledgeable gold bugs and Austrian economists are taking their time in understanding Bitcoin and are only slowly, one by one coming around. And that's the worthwhile minority of economists. The guys who swallowed all of that Keynesian stuff? I gather they'll be among the "laggards" which adopt BTC, together with my grandmother and my autistic nephew.

It's all bullshit. But bullshit makes the flowers grow and that's beautiful.
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November 15, 2013, 10:33:42 AM
 #6460

I've slowly learned that almost every single thing I learned in school and university was wrong, or else in some way majorly corrupted. No fields are spared as far as I've seen, besides maybe the practical ones like engineering (there's a market test for wrongness in engineering). Economics of course, but math (pure math, like analysis) and physics and linguistics and logic have severe fundamental issues that have a strong and far-reaching corrupting effect. It's just government funding and the power structure of intellectuals that allows them to equivocate and win by flashiness and the illusion of rigor rather than actual rigor.

There is absolutely no substitute for learning to think for yourself.
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