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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807462 times)
miscreanity
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October 24, 2013, 01:23:25 AM
 #6001

yet somehow he's gone astray on this gold thing.  Wink  he's slowly giving way, much to his credit.  Grin

i think what he, and most others, are missing is the speed and rapidity of the Bitcoin phenomenon.  also, this fuzziness of supply with gold is a major problem.

edit:  for evidence of this, look at his sig.  he grossly undersestimated the speed with which those price predictions would be achieved.  he's not the only one.

Those were tail ends of the time ranges that had been calculated - I just like being progressively conservative Smiley

Gold is behaving almost entirely as expected, only at a greater magnitude. It's a process...

And to keep it on the record from August 11th, 2013:
Meanwhile, the gold-silver ratio is approaching 62. A sustained move below that level will strongly suggest a silver-led rally. For that matter, I'm also expecting USD$1,000+ Bitcoin within a year.

That may be the point where all out war on Bitcoin is unleashed. While the price might not fade, persecution could rise.
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windjc
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October 24, 2013, 01:24:56 AM
 #6002

I think the thing Bitcoin needs to learn from Gold is how to market.

The Gold markets are driven by salespeople. Some of the best on the planet. Billions are spent on marketing each year.

Bitcoin needs to get some late night commercials going and more PR reps at CNBC.

And I'm being dead serious.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
cypherdoc
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October 24, 2013, 03:00:38 AM
 #6003

I think the thing Bitcoin needs to learn from Gold is how to market.

The Gold markets are driven by salespeople. Some of the best on the planet. Billions are spent on marketing each year.

Bitcoin needs to get some late night commercials going and more PR reps at CNBC.

And I'm being dead serious.

while certainly it wouldn't hurt, i think Bitcoin is doing just fine.
windjc
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October 24, 2013, 03:08:14 AM
 #6004

I think the thing Bitcoin needs to learn from Gold is how to market.

The Gold markets are driven by salespeople. Some of the best on the planet. Billions are spent on marketing each year.

Bitcoin needs to get some late night commercials going and more PR reps at CNBC.

And I'm being dead serious.

while certainly it wouldn't hurt, i think Bitcoin is doing just fine.

It will happen. If Bitcoin can get pass the regulatory process, we will see US bitcoin exchanges and funds doing commercials and selling people on the concept of Bitcoin.

It all depends on whether Bitcoin can get rulings that allow it to exist in the states. But if it does, it will eventually market itself.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
wachtwoord
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October 24, 2013, 03:34:55 AM
 #6005

I think the thing Bitcoin needs to learn from Gold is how to market.

The Gold markets are driven by salespeople. Some of the best on the planet. Billions are spent on marketing each year.

Bitcoin needs to get some late night commercials going and more PR reps at CNBC.

And I'm being dead serious.

while certainly it wouldn't hurt, i think Bitcoin is doing just fine.

It will happen. If Bitcoin can get pass the regulatory process, we will see US bitcoin exchanges and funds doing commercials and selling people on the concept of Bitcoin.

It all depends on whether Bitcoin can get rulings that allow it to exist in the states. But if it does, it will eventually market itself.

Gold sales people make money because there is quite a big spread between physical gold prices and the crap they make you buy (coins and bars). With Bitcoin, you can try ti sell it to someone, but if you use a similar spread they won't buy it from you but from the market. No-one will do something if there's no money to be made Smiley

The ETF IS a profitable method which would achieve similar results.

JakeGold
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October 24, 2013, 11:17:09 AM
 #6006

I think the thing Bitcoin needs to learn from Gold is how to market.

The Gold markets are driven by salespeople. Some of the best on the planet. Billions are spent on marketing each year.

Bitcoin needs to get some late night commercials going and more PR reps at CNBC.

And I'm being dead serious.

while certainly it wouldn't hurt, i think Bitcoin is doing just fine.

It will happen. If Bitcoin can get pass the regulatory process, we will see US bitcoin exchanges and funds doing commercials and selling people on the concept of Bitcoin.

It all depends on whether Bitcoin can get rulings that allow it to exist in the states. But if it does, it will eventually market itself.

That's the remarkable thing about Bitcoin, it's weightless and has zero transportation friction. Gold is easily substituted for fake gold certificates because handling physical gold is very bothersome. But representing bitcoins by un-backed substitutes would require one hell of a sales pitch.

"But greed is the only snake that cannot be charmed"
bitrider
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October 24, 2013, 12:26:50 PM
 #6007

I think the thing Bitcoin needs to learn from Gold is how to market.

The Gold markets are driven by salespeople. Some of the best on the planet. Billions are spent on marketing each year.

Bitcoin needs to get some late night commercials going and more PR reps at CNBC.

And I'm being dead serious.

while certainly it wouldn't hurt, i think Bitcoin is doing just fine.

+1

Salespeople? Bitcoin was at $11.73 1 year ago. Get some perspective. What is your hurry? Smiley
Dangolbery
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October 24, 2013, 01:54:12 PM
 #6008

It's about time people start realizing that all the massive growth our civilization experienced in the 20th century is mainly thanks to cheap and abundant fossil fuels. Energy is still abundant, in fact it's more abundant thanks to renewable energies, but it's far from cheap. Energy is getting more expensive all the time because energy demand is growing higher and at the same time energy sources with high EROEI are becoming more and more scarce.

Coal is the only energy source that's truly competitive with oil and it happens to be the most polluting energy source available. Honestly I have to laugh at any arguments that support an overall growth scenario for this decade. The whole decade is a time of fundamental decline. Perhaps next decade things will truly look brighter, maybe slightly earlier if we start an accelerating change in our energy production and consumption patterns.

France has a fusion reactor coming online in 2018-2022.

But yeah the rest of this decade is a wash, it's going to get worse with the greatest depression starting in 2015.

NewLiberty
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October 24, 2013, 01:59:38 PM
 #6009

yet somehow he's gone astray on this gold thing.  Wink  he's slowly giving way, much to his credit.  Grin

i think what he, and most others, are missing is the speed and rapidity of the Bitcoin phenomenon.  also, this fuzziness of supply with gold is a major problem.

edit:  for evidence of this, look at his sig.  he grossly undersestimated the speed with which those price predictions would be achieved.  he's not the only one.

Those were tail ends of the time ranges that had been calculated - I just like being progressively conservative Smiley

Gold is behaving almost entirely as expected, only at a greater magnitude. It's a process...

And to keep it on the record from August 11th, 2013:
Meanwhile, the gold-silver ratio is approaching 62. A sustained move below that level will strongly suggest a silver-led rally. For that matter, I'm also expecting USD$1,000+ Bitcoin within a year.

That may be the point where all out war on Bitcoin is unleashed. While the price might not fade, persecution could rise.

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
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rocks
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October 24, 2013, 04:49:37 PM
 #6010

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

Meh, Bitcoin's market cap is currently $2.5B. That is a lot but nothing compared to many $Tillions of gold reserves held.

A Bitcoin price of 500 still only brings the market cap to around $6B, it Bitcoin takes off as a viable reserve asset that is nothing and we still have a way to go.

The reason price targets make no sense is Bitcoin is either going to the moon, or crashing to zero as a failed experiment. I don't see a middle ground. That is the entire premise of this thread IMHO, that BTC will become a reserve asset and in the process go up A LOT. Why trade that asset? Just hold.
tvbcof
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October 24, 2013, 04:56:32 PM
 #6011

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

Meh, Bitcoin's market cap is currently $2.5B. That is a lot but nothing compared to many $Tillions of gold reserves held.

A Bitcoin price of 500 still only brings the market cap to around $6B, it Bitcoin takes off as a viable reserve asset that is nothing and we still have a way to go.

The reason price targets make no sense is Bitcoin is either going to the moon, or crashing to zero as a failed experiment. I don't see a middle ground. That is the entire premise of this thread IMHO, that BTC will become a reserve asset and in the process go up A LOT. Why trade that asset? Just hold.

+1.  It's always nice to see when someone 'gets it'  (said with an air of presumption which does not escape me...)

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize.  How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing.  And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.


cypherdoc
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October 24, 2013, 05:10:48 PM
 #6012

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

Meh, Bitcoin's market cap is currently $2.5B. That is a lot but nothing compared to many $Tillions of gold reserves held.

A Bitcoin price of 500 still only brings the market cap to around $6B, it Bitcoin takes off as a viable reserve asset that is nothing and we still have a way to go.

The reason price targets make no sense is Bitcoin is either going to the moon, or crashing to zero as a failed experiment. I don't see a middle ground. That is the entire premise of this thread IMHO, that BTC will become a reserve asset and in the process go up A LOT. Why trade that asset? Just hold.

+1.  It's always nice to see when someone 'gets it'  (said with an air of presumption which does not escape me...)

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize.  How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing.  And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.



this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today.  especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today.  but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.  

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.
Zangelbert Bingledack
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October 24, 2013, 05:19:28 PM
 #6013

The weird thing about getting rich in Bitcoin is, it's not even particularly attractive to cash out large amounts - even right now - unless you have a specific purchase in mind. If you had $1 million in BTC, why would you convert even a third of that into fiat just to store it in a bank account where it can get frozen, you have to mess with various additional filing requirements and capital controls, it might be impossible to transport or access it overseas, and it can be inflated or haircutted or defrauded away from you? Not to mention 3rd party risk and general banking inconvenience. These concerns are ten times as pressing for expatriates, especially Americans living overseas, or people living in Argentina or other fiscally messed up places.

The amount you'd want in fiat is maybe only 10% or 20% of that million, again assuming no imminent purchases require it. You would also want some other assets like PMs and maybe real estate just for diversification. But those aren't transportable, and can be lost/stolen/confiscated. Such assets aren't there for you when push comes to shove, destroying much of the original reason for diversifying, which was to mitigate for contingencies. What happens when you get in trouble, need to leave the country, get divorced, and generally "shit happens"?

At the end of the day, if your assets aren't accessible with only your own mind with no limitations, do you really own them?
cypherdoc
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October 24, 2013, 05:24:48 PM
 #6014

The weird thing about getting rich in Bitcoin is, it's not even particularly attractive to cash out large amounts - even right now - unless you have a specific purchase in mind. If you had $1 million in BTC, why would you convert even a third of that into fiat just to store it in a bank account where it can get frozen, you have to mess with various additional filing requirements and capital controls, it might be impossible transport or access it overseas, and it can be inflated or haircutted or defrauded away from you? Not to mention 3rd party risk and general banking inconvenience. These concerns are ten times as pressing for expatriates, especially Americans living overseas, or people living in Argentina or other fiscally messed up places.

The amount you'd want in fiat is maybe only 10% or 20% of that million, again assuming no imminent purchases require it. You would also want some other assets like PMs and maybe real estate just for diversification. But these aren't transportable, and can be lost/stolen/confiscated. Such assets aren't tere for you when push comes to shove, destroying much of the original reason for diversifying, which was to mitigate  for contingencies.

i was just trying to placate my boy, tv. Grin

you're right about that, though.  Bitcoin is unique in that it is a currency and a store of wealth.  why hold USD's?  just store them on your phone, let them appreciate along the way, and only cash them into Gyft cards (today) cash (tomorrow) when you need to buy something. 

it's the perfect pair trade:  short USD/long BTC.
wachtwoord
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October 24, 2013, 05:30:20 PM
 #6015

The weird thing about getting rich in Bitcoin is, it's not even particularly attractive to cash out large amounts - even right now - unless you have a specific purchase in mind. If you had $1 million in BTC, why would you convert even a third of that into fiat just to store it in a bank account where it can get frozen, you have to mess with various additional filing requirements and capital controls, it might be impossible transport or access it overseas, and it can be inflated or haircutted or defrauded away from you? Not to mention 3rd party risk and general banking inconvenience. These concerns are ten times as pressing for expatriates, especially Americans living overseas, or people living in Argentina or other fiscally messed up places.

The amount you'd want in fiat is maybe only 10% or 20% of that million, again assuming no imminent purchases require it. You would also want some other assets like PMs and maybe real estate just for diversification. But these aren't transportable, and can be lost/stolen/confiscated. Such assets aren't tere for you when push comes to shove, destroying much of the original reason for diversifying, which was to mitigate  for contingencies.

i was just trying to placate my boy, tv. Grin

you're right about that, though.  Bitcoin is unique in that it is a currency and a store of wealth.  why hold USD's?  just store them on your phone, let them appreciate along the way, and only cash them into Gyft cards (today) cash (tomorrow) when you need to buy something. 

it's the perfect pair trade:  short USD/long BTC.

Don't store them on your phone...

cypherdoc
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October 24, 2013, 05:31:16 PM
 #6016

The weird thing about getting rich in Bitcoin is, it's not even particularly attractive to cash out large amounts - even right now - unless you have a specific purchase in mind. If you had $1 million in BTC, why would you convert even a third of that into fiat just to store it in a bank account where it can get frozen, you have to mess with various additional filing requirements and capital controls, it might be impossible transport or access it overseas, and it can be inflated or haircutted or defrauded away from you? Not to mention 3rd party risk and general banking inconvenience. These concerns are ten times as pressing for expatriates, especially Americans living overseas, or people living in Argentina or other fiscally messed up places.

The amount you'd want in fiat is maybe only 10% or 20% of that million, again assuming no imminent purchases require it. You would also want some other assets like PMs and maybe real estate just for diversification. But these aren't transportable, and can be lost/stolen/confiscated. Such assets aren't tere for you when push comes to shove, destroying much of the original reason for diversifying, which was to mitigate  for contingencies.

i was just trying to placate my boy, tv. Grin

you're right about that, though.  Bitcoin is unique in that it is a currency and a store of wealth.  why hold USD's?  just store them on your phone, let them appreciate along the way, and only cash them into Gyft cards (today) cash (tomorrow) when you need to buy something. 

it's the perfect pair trade:  short USD/long BTC.

Don't store them on your phone...

example was for illustrative purposes only...

gotta make it easy for everyone, right?
tvbcof
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October 24, 2013, 05:32:33 PM
 #6017

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize.  How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing.  And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.

this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today.  especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today.  but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.  

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.

Actually, I expect that the more successful Bitcoin becomes, the more challenging it will be for me (as someone who lives in a non-free jurisdiction (the U.S.)) to find solutions to the problem of capitalizing.  In no circumstance did I every intend to take a majority of my BTC to my grave, and I think that there is a fair chance that even trading BTC straight across for a tractor if/when some old farmer knows of them and wishes to own them will be fraught with danger.

I'm on record as predicting that all important governments would reject and fight Bitcoin and with escalating forcefulness, and probably cooperate in doing so.  To my shock and delight, it seems like I may be wrong about that given the developments out of China.  Yet I continue to have great suspicion of the likely posture of the U.S. government which is massively as corrupted by corporate lobbying and is looking at a much greater fall being still the beneficiary of having world's reserve currency.  As a citizen who lives under U.S. jurisdiction, this is most salient to me.


Zangelbert Bingledack
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October 24, 2013, 05:32:53 PM
 #6018

I edited my post to add a bit at the end Smiley

I think something like, "If you don't have COMPLETE control of your assets, do you really own them?" could be a great slogan to sell HNWI on Bitcoin.
wachtwoord
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October 24, 2013, 05:33:58 PM
 #6019

It's about time people start realizing that all the massive growth our civilization experienced in the 20th century is mainly thanks to cheap and abundant fossil fuels. Energy is still abundant, in fact it's more abundant thanks to renewable energies, but it's far from cheap. Energy is getting more expensive all the time because energy demand is growing higher and at the same time energy sources with high EROEI are becoming more and more scarce.

Coal is the only energy source that's truly competitive with oil and it happens to be the most polluting energy source available. Honestly I have to laugh at any arguments that support an overall growth scenario for this decade. The whole decade is a time of fundamental decline. Perhaps next decade things will truly look brighter, maybe slightly earlier if we start an accelerating change in our energy production and consumption patterns.

France has a fusion reactor coming online in 2018-2022.

But yeah the rest of this decade is a wash, it's going to get worse with the greatest depression starting in 2015.

I hold Excelon stock Smiley

tvbcof
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October 24, 2013, 05:41:58 PM
 #6020

The weird thing about getting rich in Bitcoin is, it's not even particularly attractive to cash out large amounts - even right now - unless you have a specific purchase in mind. If you had $1 million in BTC, why would you convert even a third of that into fiat just to store it in a bank account where it can get frozen, you have to mess with various additional filing requirements and capital controls, it might be impossible transport or access it overseas, and it can be inflated or haircutted or defrauded away from you? Not to mention 3rd party risk and general banking inconvenience. These concerns are ten times as pressing for expatriates, especially Americans living overseas, or people living in Argentina or other fiscally messed up places.

The amount you'd want in fiat is maybe only 10% or 20% of that million, again assuming no imminent purchases require it. You would also want some other assets like PMs and maybe real estate just for diversification. But these aren't transportable, and can be lost/stolen/confiscated. Such assets aren't tere for you when push comes to shove, destroying much of the original reason for diversifying, which was to mitigate  for contingencies.

i was just trying to placate my boy, tv. Grin

you're right about that, though.  Bitcoin is unique in that it is a currency and a store of wealth.  why hold USD's?  just store them on your phone, let them appreciate along the way, and only cash them into Gyft cards (today) cash (tomorrow) when you need to buy something. 

it's the perfect pair trade:  short USD/long BTC.

On one's phone!?!  I don't even check my real e-mail from my phone.  No wonder people get ass-raped regularly in Bitcoinland.

The reason for my 'capitalizing' is primarily because I trust my bank less than I trust Bitcoin so I keep a limited balance there.  From time to time I wish to have cash flow to buy shit (me being 'retired' and not taking a pay-check at the moment) so I need to be siphoning from my various alternate stores of wealth.  As I mentioned earlier, I'm more heavy than I wish to be in Bitcoin at the moment so that is where I'd like to have funds coming from.


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