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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807336 times)
Melbustus
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November 05, 2013, 05:42:15 AM
 #6281

This country *is*, at its core, quite productive, and that kernel can probably be milked for a while longer through increasingly creative financial and political means (at great long-term cost to the majority, of course).
Have you checked the labor participation rate recently?



Obviously there's no way to know exactly when it all falls apart, but I expect some excitement within the next 5 years, 10 at the longest.


Yeah, that's a good one. Key numbers on that chart are probably high 50s, which just eyeballing the longer-term chart (here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_force), were pretty constant from the 1940s through mid-1970s, when women started making up a significant % of the labor force and drove the whole number higher. Get much below mid 50s on that stat, and we're in uncharted territory.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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User705
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November 05, 2013, 05:45:18 AM
 #6282

Official labor force numbers are bs since they don't count any off books work.  Most modern economies have so many benefits it's profitable not to work.  I read that in California, USA the total benefits of not working come to over 40K USD per year.
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November 05, 2013, 05:45:58 AM
 #6283

"Labor force" by standard definitions includes government employees and defence contractors. The actual size of the private sector is frighteningly small.
oakpacific
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November 05, 2013, 05:59:31 AM
 #6284

Wonder how many people on this thread/forum will join the non-labor force not too far from now. Wink

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
rpietila
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November 05, 2013, 06:41:27 AM
 #6285

Quite a lot, but still not so many. To comfortably retire you need at least BTC10, it's not getting much easier than that. So it will be 100,000s of people at most, not millions.

Unless bitcoin rises really high, that is. Wink

rocks
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November 05, 2013, 06:47:29 AM
 #6286

"Labor force" by standard definitions includes government employees and defence contractors. The actual size of the private sector is frighteningly small.

It's not just direct government employees but whole industries that are a part of the public work force.

For example I'd consider all university employees to be public workers. The entire industry is supported by cheap unsustainable government backed loans. Imagine if the loans disappeared, college would crash. Housing is another example. These are all "public" backed industies at this point.

The list of true private sector employees holding the whole thing together is unprecedented, it is a shocking transformation over just 1 or 2 generations.
dserrano5
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November 05, 2013, 07:47:34 AM
 #6287

Past results are no guarantee of future returns, etc. but I haven't seen any case yet where we fell behind the 6.5% weekly line by more than a year, so that's why I expect $10k before 2016.

What's the minimum value reached after the 2011 bubble?

rpietila
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November 05, 2013, 08:42:30 AM
 #6288

Quite a lot, but still not so many. To comfortably retire you need at least BTC10, it's not getting much easier than that. So it will be 100,000s of people at most, not millions.

Unless bitcoin rises really high, that is. Wink

It's not like someone can buy 10 btc and retire, though, right? What would be a good strategy for this scenario?

I know a person who invested a sum, comparable to perhaps buying BTC10 now, into bitcoin, saying: "finally - I will never again need to work for money". And he hasn't.

My advice is, buy BTC10 and start mentally transforming yourself, because the day is sooner than you expect.

wachtwoord
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November 05, 2013, 12:06:41 PM
 #6289

it's way too risky for me not to be in bitcoin as I don't have much to lose.


If you don't have much to lose, how is it risky?

cypherdoc
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November 05, 2013, 12:29:09 PM
 #6290

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
molecular
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November 05, 2013, 12:36:14 PM
 #6291

Quite a lot, but still not so many. To comfortably retire you need at least BTC10, it's not getting much easier than that. So it will be 100,000s of people at most, not millions.

Unless bitcoin rises really high, that is. Wink

It's not like someone can buy 10 btc and retire, though, right? What would be a good strategy for this scenario?

I know a person who invested a sum, comparable to perhaps buying BTC10 now, into bitcoin, saying: "finally - I will never again need to work for money". And he hasn't.

My advice is, buy BTC10 and start mentally transforming yourself, because the day is sooner than you expect.

I started transformation in 2011. This shit is taking too long. I can barely work any more but still refuse to live off my coins.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
Siegfried
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November 05, 2013, 12:37:55 PM
 #6292

it's way too risky for me not to be in bitcoin as I don't have much to lose.


If you don't have much to lose, how is it risky?


He said it is risky NOT to be in bitcoin. And I agree with him. Anyone in the bottom 50 percent who does not have a family to take care of would be smart to invest the majority of their money in bitcoin. If it realizes its potential as many of us think it will, their lives will be radically changed for the better. If bitcoin fails, they will still be in the same position they are now, working every day just to get by. Nothing to lose.
billington.mark
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November 05, 2013, 12:58:34 PM
 #6293

Quite a lot, but still not so many. To comfortably retire you need at least BTC10, it's not getting much easier than that. So it will be 100,000s of people at most, not millions.

Unless bitcoin rises really high, that is. Wink

how much do you think BTC needs to be before this is reality? (really hope your correct as i have allot more than BTC10...)

BTC - 1MarkBCmVn3yp1SB9RZZ7VfqJzkpV8Hmdo
BitMessage - BM-GtZkeAbmKGs77FEoigm9TmsQBSfvMB3N
wachtwoord
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November 05, 2013, 01:37:25 PM
 #6294

it's way too risky for me not to be in bitcoin as I don't have much to lose.


If you don't have much to lose, how is it risky?


He said it is risky NOT to be in bitcoin. And I agree with him. Anyone in the bottom 50 percent who does not have a family to take care of would be smart to invest the majority of their money in bitcoin. If it realizes its potential as many of us think it will, their lives will be radically changed for the better. If bitcoin fails, they will still be in the same position they are now, working every day just to get by. Nothing to lose.

Yes I misread that and I agree (although maybe not the majority. A significant portion either way Smiley)

fallinglantern
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November 05, 2013, 02:50:12 PM
 #6295

Quite a lot, but still not so many. To comfortably retire you need at least BTC10, it's not getting much easier than that. So it will be 100,000s of people at most, not millions.

Unless bitcoin rises really high, that is. Wink

how much do you think BTC needs to be before this is reality? (really hope your correct as i have allot more than BTC10...)

To retire comfortably and still stay in the game, you'd need to come up with a sum that you could withdraw the market, pay capital gains tax on and stick in a brokerage account to accumulate interest. Here's what I came up with:

$1,500,000 USD, pay capital gains tax of approximately 19%, leaves $1,215,000 USD. At a typical ROI of 7% on the market, that's $85,050 USD gross, or $56,133 USD net after approximately 34% tax as those would not be long-term capital gains. That's an income that would be quite comfortable in the rural US or in SE asia or in Latin America or in Eastern Europe. Now, because you don't want to blow your chance on multi-million dollar coins, you'd want to make sure that you don't liquidate all your position. So, you'd want to have roughly $3,000,000 USD in value before calling it quits in the rat race (to leave half your coins for speculation). So, then it just depends on the timing of your entry. If you'd bought 1000 coins at $2 a pop back in 2011, then realistically you'd be able to retire next year as historically BTC has a roughly 1000% return per year. If you bought 10 coins today at $250 a pop, then you'd be looking at roughly 3 years to be able to quit comfortably, when your coins are worth $300,000 USD apiece. That's a figure that rpietila already famously calculated as being the gold store of value replacement amount, so not entirely unrealistic.
vokain
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November 05, 2013, 02:51:46 PM
 #6296

Quite a lot, but still not so many. To comfortably retire you need at least BTC10, it's not getting much easier than that. So it will be 100,000s of people at most, not millions.

Unless bitcoin rises really high, that is. Wink

how much do you think BTC needs to be before this is reality? (really hope your correct as i have allot more than BTC10...)

To retire comfortably and still stay in the game, you'd need to come up with a sum that you could withdraw the market, pay capital gains tax on and stick in a brokerage account to accumulate interest. Here's what I came up with:

$1,500,000 USD, pay capital gains tax of approximately 19%, leaves $1,215,000 USD. At a typical ROI of 7% on the market, that's $85,050 USD gross, or $56,133 USD net after approximately 34% tax as those would not be long-term capital gains. That's an income that would be quite comfortable in the rural US or in SE asia or in Latin America or in Eastern Europe. Now, because you don't want to blow your chance on multi-million dollar coins, you'd want to make sure that you don't liquidate all your position. So, you'd want to have roughly $3,000,000 USD in value before calling it quits in the rat race (to leave half your coins for speculation). So, then it just depends on the timing of your entry. If you'd bought 1000 coins at $2 a pop back in 2011, then realistically you'd be able to retire next year as historically BTC has a roughly 1000% return per year. If you bought 10 coins today at $250 a pop, then you'd be looking at roughly 3 years to be able to quit comfortably, when your coins are worth $300,000 USD apiece. That's a figure that rpietila already famously calculated as being the gold store of value replacement amount, so not entirely unrealistic.

ew fiat  Wink
draw fiat from BTC stash when needed, Bitcoin is your new retirement account

...مكتوب
Escape the plutocrats’ zanpakutō, Flower in the Mirror, Moon on the Water: brave “the ascent which is rough and steep” (Plato).
fallinglantern
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November 05, 2013, 02:56:05 PM
 #6297


ew fiat  Wink
draw fiat from BTC stash when needed, Bitcoin is your new retirement account

Until the tax man accepts payment in BTC, that's unfortunately not a realistic argument.
justusranvier
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November 05, 2013, 02:57:30 PM
 #6298

Until the tax man accepts payment in BTC, that's unfortunately not a realistic argument.
Become a permanent international traveller and you can largely escape the tax man's effective reach.
wachtwoord
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November 05, 2013, 03:01:32 PM
 #6299


ew fiat  Wink
draw fiat from BTC stash when needed, Bitcoin is your new retirement account

Until the tax man accepts payment in BTC, that's unfortunately not a realistic argument.

So withdraw to pay taxes? Don't liquidate a large portion ffs!

Have you learned nothing? Tongue

oakpacific
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November 05, 2013, 03:06:34 PM
 #6300

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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