Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

Boom

edit:  is this one better molecular?

[1714060790]

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[cypherdoc]

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[User705]

Looks to me like altcoins decoupling inversely to Bitcoin:

...

Yes, indeed. What I think is happening is that, finally, mercifully, the market is understanding that none of the popular alts today offer anything meaningful over bitcoin. So why not just use bitcoin?

A few dynamics are playing out:

1) The litecoin fanboys' idiotic "ASIC-resistant"/scrypt-is-better rationale is finally empirically false (though those of us with just 1/3 of a brain figured that out in 2012). So that entire family tree of coins is now obviously just clones/tweaks.
2) The new crop of anonymity promising coins is getting even the relatively thick-headed to question why these alts that offer nothing over bitcoin command such value. All the discussion of fungibility has raised the anon issue to the surface, and I think many people have realized that it might be the first meaningful "feature" an alt could actually offer. It looked like the test was going to be Zerocoin, but now we're seeing the CryptoNotes supposedly offer this. Whatever the ultimate reality of whether those coins do what they claim, or what may ultimately win that particular use-case battle, the point is that more would-be lite- nxt- dark- feather- junk- coin fanboys are now asking "why?" just a little more deeply. And that's not a good thing for any coin but bitcoin.

Of course there is also NXT which if it works as designed would be superior to bitcoin but bitcoin may have a starting edge that would be hard to overcome even if a better coin where to be invented/launched.

[smoothie]

You forgot the dynamic where certain Bitcoin only fanboys were saying "Litecoin is doing to die blah blah blah" when Litecoin was $0.005 each in 2012.

You're measuring the exchange rate of Litecoin in the wrong units.

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=ltc-btc&market=btc-e

lol when they were $0.005 the exchange rate of BTC to LTC was 0.00075 or lower. Your point?

[smoothie]

Looks to me like altcoins decoupling inversely to Bitcoin:

...

Yes, indeed. What I think is happening is that, finally, mercifully, the market is understanding that none of the popular alts today offer anything meaningful over bitcoin. So why not just use bitcoin?

A few dynamics are playing out:

1) The litecoin fanboys' idiotic "ASIC-resistant"/scrypt-is-better rationale is finally empirically false (though those of us with just 1/3 of a brain figured that out in 2012). So that entire family tree of coins is now obviously just clones/tweaks.
2) The new crop of anonymity promising coins is getting even the relatively thick-headed to question why these alts that offer nothing over bitcoin command such value. All the discussion of fungibility has raised the anon issue to the surface, and I think many people have realized that it might be the first meaningful "feature" an alt could actually offer. It looked like the test was going to be Zerocoin, but now we're seeing the CryptoNotes supposedly offer this. Whatever the ultimate reality of whether those coins do what they claim, or what may ultimately win that particular use-case battle, the point is that more would-be lite- nxt- dark- feather- junk- coin fanboys are now asking "why?" just a little more deeply. And that's not a good thing for any coin but bitcoin.

You forgot the dynamic where certain Bitcoin only fanboys were saying "Litecoin is doing to die blah blah blah" when Litecoin was $0.005 each in 2012.

Only if those who were saying "Litecoin is doing to die blah blah blah" gave a timeframe AND didn't see the potential for a temporary rise due to the then-current ignorance of the community. Being right on the fundamentals often comes with a high-tolerance for waiting until the market catches up with you.

Of course we are seeing a shift from alts to Bitcoin, but the cycle will continue I believe as long as there is the free-space to have alts.

I actually think there is space to have alts as well. But as with the precious-metals market, I think there will only ever be a few that have lasting value, and one that has orders-of-magnitude dominant value.

Don't be surprised if a coin like Litecoin sticks around much longer than some may anticipate. I'm not bullish on Litecoin now but I do believe you will see it bottom out and rebound as it has so many times before.

Litecoin hasn't been faced with the two things I noted above before:
1) Having some of its core misguided thesis irrefutably disproved.
2) The emergence of coins with actual feature-benefits to the ecosystem, not just more me-too clones.

I agree that litecoin will continue to exist, probably with non-trivial value. But if I had to bet at even-money that LTC would be the #2 crypto in 5yrs?...nope.

I can think of one example of a "me-too" clone scenario that worked out well for the clones:

Originator: Ford

Clones: Honda, Toyota, GMC, Kia etc.

So don't think your ideology that crypto coins need to have new features (or be innovative) to be successful.

I too believe there is space to have alts. But nothing is impossible.

Well 5 years out is quite a ways in the crypto space. Who knows, Bitcoin may not be #1 anymore (not that I think that), but it isn't impossible for it to be replaced by something the free-market chooses as the next "Bitcoin".

[cypherdoc]

Who loves Bitcoin!?

[Ivanhoe]

Who loves Bitcoin!?

It seems like a lot of people love it.

[Melbustus]

I can think of one example of a "me-too" clone scenario that worked out well for the clones:

Originator: Ford

Clones: Honda, Toyota, GMC, Kia etc.

So don't think your ideology that crypto coins need to have new features (or be innovative) to be successful.

No, cars are a terrible example since they exhibit no network effect. The fact that my neighbor drives a Honda does not make *my* Honda more directly useful to me.

Your position is kind of a catch-22. If you *really* believe the above, then how can you possibly hold *any* crypto-currency? Your position being true would mean that no crypto could be used as any sort of a store of value whatsoever, which is required for just about all other use-cases to have merit.

Well 5 years out is quite a ways in the crypto space. Who knows, Bitcoin may not be #1 anymore (not that I think that), but it isn't impossible for it to be replaced by something the free-market chooses as the next "Bitcoin".

Yup, nothing's impossible and 5yrs is indeed a long time in crypto. The best we can do is make our own analysis, boil down to probability distributions, and then act accordingly. My assertion above, that there's a >50% chance that litecoin will not be the #2 crypto 5yrs from now, comes out of that process.

[FNG]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-30/usd-tumbling-near-2-month-lows

[cypherdoc]

“This is classic asset forfeiture. They’re washing these bitcoin clean, with the seal of approval of the US federal government."

http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-DGB-36203

Allaire demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what this action represents. a bitcoin doesn't possess the capacity to be washed or cleaned. dollar bills tainted with cocaine residue can be removed from circulation and destroyed. fresh new dollar bills can take their place. now that is cleaning.

bitcoins, otoh, can't be cleaned. each digital representation is agnostic and if they passed through drug related hands then that is the case forever. there is no such thing as cleaning.

the only thing the gov't demonstrated in this case is a willingness to flip drug money for a profit. plain and simple.

and there is nothing wrong with that. as long as they allow other honest users to do the same.

[Torque]

“This is classic asset forfeiture. They’re washing these bitcoin clean, with the seal of approval of the US federal government."

http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-DGB-36203

Allaire demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what this action represents. a bitcoin doesn't possess the capacity to be washed or cleaned. dollar bills tainted with cocaine residue can be removed from circulation and destroyed. fresh new dollar bills can take their place. now that is cleaning.

bitcoins, otoh, can't be cleaned. each digital representation is agnostic and if they passed through drug related hands then that is the case forever. there is no such thing as cleaning.

the only thing the gov't demonstrated in this case is a willingness to flip drug money for a profit. plain and simple.

and there is nothing wrong with that. as long as they allow other honest users to do the same.

Well, right now they consider it drug 'property', not real money.  Hopefully that will change some day.  But yeah, I don't get all this crap about 'clean' money.  For all I know, the dollar bills in my pocket could have been used by a drug dealer in the past.  But who cares?  Money doesn't care who uses it, or for what purpose.  Plus I have less respect for fiat since it can be printed ad nauseam.

[FNG]

“This is classic asset forfeiture. They’re washing these bitcoin clean, with the seal of approval of the US federal government."

http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-DGB-36203

Allaire demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what this action represents. a bitcoin doesn't possess the capacity to be washed or cleaned. dollar bills tainted with cocaine residue can be removed from circulation and destroyed. fresh new dollar bills can take their place. now that is cleaning.

bitcoins, otoh, can't be cleaned. each digital representation is agnostic and if they passed through drug related hands then that is the case forever. there is no such thing as cleaning.

the only thing the gov't demonstrated in this case is a willingness to flip drug money for a profit. plain and simple.

and there is nothing wrong with that. as long as they allow other honest users to do the same.

Yup..people haven't realized that this act cleans all 2nd hand coins.

Oh..it's passed through SR? Fuck it..up for auction. U.S Gov has proved it's fungibility via this act

[molecular]

Boom

edit:  is this one better molecular?

We're making progress. Keep going.

[FNG]

May be pertinent to the discussion although they've been talking about it for awhile now

http://www.arabnews.com/news/593931

"GCC tries to persuade UAE, Oman to join currency talks"


Couple this with every other anti-dollar settlement being made, ASEAN trade agreements coming online, Russia flexing muscle in the Shiite regions...and the $USD doesn't have much clout anymore.

I don't think Central Banks are ready to lose and enormous amount of value on their balance sheets so..Dollar collapse, majority of value flows to gold on CB balance sheets, debt is washed...bitcoin begins to fill the role of money transfer / storage outside of gold, ..but isn't the reserve asset of CB's just yet.

You know it makes sense cypher

I wish CB's didn't exist but they do..they want to be a recipient of the wealth trasfer from the USD so they'll bid for gold..simple.

[cypherdoc]

You know it makes sense cypher

it only makes sense in that  they hold some gold and they'll temporarily use that to cling to the old monetary system. this will cause fluctuations in price and won't be a straight line.

but eventually they'll have to capitulate. the only question is when.

[FNG]

You know it makes sense cypher

it only makes sense in that  they hold some gold and they'll temporarily use that to cling to the old monetary system. this will cause fluctuations in price and won't be a straight line.

but eventually they'll have to capitulate. the only question is when.

it's going to take time man..can't expect the shift to happen overnight.

I'm in agreeance that bitcoin is superior but central banks won't allow the the lose of $ value to simply vanish. bid for gold with $'s and replace it's value on their balance sheet.

As long as CB's exist..I'll wager when the $ drops (soon"ish")  gold will suck up it's value. bitcoin is a whole other beast at the moment that will extract value from from almost everything.

[cypherdoc]

You know it makes sense cypher

it only makes sense in that  they hold some gold and they'll temporarily use that to cling to the old monetary system. this will cause fluctuations in price and won't be a straight line.

but eventually they'll have to capitulate. the only question is when.

it's going to take time man..can't expect the shift to happen overnight.

I'm in agreeance that bitcoin is superior but central banks won't allow the the lose of $ value to simply vanish. bid for gold with $'s and replace it's value on their balance sheet.

As long as CB's exist..I'll wager when the $ drops (soon"ish")  gold will suck up it's value. bitcoin is a whole other beast at the moment that will extract value from from almost everything.

The entire success of this thread is that it is already happening much faster than even the most ardent gold bugs  have expected. it's highly unlikely for civilization to take one giant step backwards in financial innovation before moving forward in this day of seamless transfer of information. 

[FNG]

You know it makes sense cypher

it only makes sense in that  they hold some gold and they'll temporarily use that to cling to the old monetary system. this will cause fluctuations in price and won't be a straight line.

but eventually they'll have to capitulate. the only question is when.

it's going to take time man..can't expect the shift to happen overnight.

I'm in agreeance that bitcoin is superior but central banks won't allow the the lose of $ value to simply vanish. bid for gold with $'s and replace it's value on their balance sheet.

As long as CB's exist..I'll wager when the $ drops (soon"ish")  gold will suck up it's value. bitcoin is a whole other beast at the moment that will extract value from from almost everything.

The entire success of this thread is that it is already happening much faster than even the most ardent gold bugs  have expected. it's highly unlikely for civilization to take one giant step backwards in financial innovation before moving forward in this day of seamless transfer of information. 

I'm not here to argue with you..we both believe bitcoin will continue it's epic rise but central banks do not = civilization. If the $ loses support how is the massive gap on their balance sheets going to be filled? Does it make sense for the to all go bankrupt or bid for gold and force their asset column above their liabilities?

I simply don't see Cb's going bust prior to cleansing their balance sheets via a revaluation of gold.

I could be wrong, but I don't think I'm wrong about where the $ is heading..if right, it's in the CB's best interest to increase the worth of their assets column

[cypherdoc]

you Europeans are just not doing your part:

[justusranvier]

I'm not here to argue with you..we both believe bitcoin will continue it's epic rise but central banks do not = civilization. If the $ loses support how is the massive gap on their balance sheets going to be filled? Does it make sense for the to all go bankrupt or bid for gold and force their asset column above their liabilities?

I simply don't see Cb's going bust prior to cleansing their balance sheets via a revaluation of gold.

I could be wrong, but I don't think I'm wrong about where the $ is heading..if right, it's in the CB's best interest to increase the worth of their assets column

Do we know for sure that all the central banks actually have gold?